Cardinals and James Ramsey Agree for $1.6 Million
Posted on June 25th, 2012 by Jeff in 2012 MLB Draft, MLB DraftSubtitled: WHAT?
Per Jim Callis of Baseball America:
#Cardinals, 1st-rder James Ramsey agree on $1.6 mil ($1.775 mil pick value). Believe that’s 2nd-highest bonus in #mlbdraft history for c …
James Ramsey’s $1.6 mil is 2nd-biggest ever for college senior. Trails only Matt LaPorta’s $2.07 mil. #mlbdraft #Cardinals
It was not long ago that I made peace and appreciated the Cardinals draft for where they spent money and where they saved money. I based a lot of that (and my following piece on where the Cardinals were with their draft pick signings and pool allotment, based on some bad information re: Max Foody) on James Ramsey signing for slightly more than the $500k he turned down last year. That would have saved about a million dollars, but now, the Cardinals will have very little money left over to attempt to sign Trey Williams (11th round) and Max Foody (12th round).
I’ll work on some of the draft math later this week, but needless to say, the savings on Heyer and Meijia will not be enough to sign both Trey Williams and Max Foody and probably not even one of them.
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Well with the draft signings basically over now (with Williams and Foody unlikely to sign) I think I will begin to look forward to the July 2nd signings.
I was really hoping the Cardinals would be able to bring in Williams as a high upside, power hitting guy. Maybe they will find someone like that on the International market instead.
Tough break. I think for Ramsey to become a solid prospect, he’d have to be in AAA or threatening to be called up to AAA by this time next season (when he’ll be 23). Sigh…..
The Post Dispatch this morning says that a deal with Ramsey is “near” and could possibly be done by Friday. The Cards site has no mention of this signing at all. I say we all take a deep breath and wait and see if this is all true or not. Does BBA have more access to the Cardinals than the Post Dispatch? I’m going to assume not.
BA has more access to agents, amateur coaches and players. It is literally all they do and they wouldn’t be in business if they didn’t do it well. Jim Callis is not a hack.
As a Ramsey fan, this is wonderful news.
We were never going to sign Ramsey for as low as $500K. I had hoped we could sign Ramsey for $1.2mm, to have money for Williams, but it was not to be.
We can probably save money on Meija, the 4th rounder. He got elevated in the draft by the Cards, so could be one of our ways to economize on bonuses.
You must let Mr. TLR do the math in the family because it is certainly not your strength. Slot value for Mejia is under 300k.
I think it’s still possible we could afford Foody (we’ve got about $200k-ish left, I think?) but no way on Williams.
This is massively disappointing. Was Ramsey REALLY going to turn down $700k or so? Was there really another team who wanted to give first round money to a third round talent? Hmmm.
third round talent? that’s way understating the ramsey valuation. all the mock drafts i recall off my head called him a supp rounder. where are you getting third round talent from?
Hyperbole. Though I’ve seen a few reports that he’s over-rated based on his number playing in FSU.
dono if we will save much money on Meji, some considered him the best SS in college acording to an ESPN article. I think he will sign for about slot.
Didn’t like that pick at all if he’s not cheap. Absolute upside is Ryan Jackson without any power, I think.
The big question (for me) is still just how good his defense is. A middle IF who hoovers grounders at an elite rate (think Boog Ryan) would be good value at that round even if he can’t hit.
Dude, you must not have seen him play. Mejia is nowhere near the elite athlete Boog is.
Hopefully they do save some $$, but was Mejia really elevated that much by the Cards in the draft, or maybe the Cards were ahead of the curve? Pac 12 Player of the year and Defensive Player of the year, All American, etc. Maybe BA and other outlets didnt do their homework on him as much as they should have and we all want to believe what they say because its what we read. Has anyone else watched the regionals and CWS and seen this kid play SS? If the Cards can get a SS in the 4th round, that sounds like a decent pick to me.
I would believe more that BA “missed” on him if he didn’t receive so much publicity and didn’t play for a high profile PAC-12 team. You get ahead of the curve on juco guys, not on the starting SS for a nationally ranked team. I only watched him during the CWS, but he didn’t look impressive. He’s kind of a pudgy guy, not much power. His defense was good but hard to tell how much actual range he had. Meh.
I think Mejia’s range was shown during the first inning of game 1 of the championship series. If you missed it, it might be on Web Gems for the rest of the week. If you havent figured it out, BA just writes up and promotes whoever gets all the hype and what they hear from scouts. Perfect example of this and a good comparison for this case would be Deven Marrero from ASU, who BA had at #14 on their overall list. He played in the same conference against the same competition as Mejia. Marrero’s write up is not exactly a glowing review of the kid,it kind of states that he is lazy. I think Marrrero finished the year hitting somewhere around .275, where Mejia hit around .360. Remember, from all the reports out there, this Marrero kid is supposed to be the next best thing at SS, but the PAC 12 coaches who vote on the awards seemed to think that Mejia was the better player. Maybe we should be glad that the Cards didnt bite at take Marrero.
From BA top 500: Deven Marrero
As a junior in high school, Marrero played on a loaded American Heritage High (Plantation, Fla.) team that included third baseman Nick Castellanos, now with the Tigers, and first baseman Eric Hosmer, now with the Royals. Like Hosmer, Marrero committed to Arizona State, and after he slipped to the 17th round of the 2009 draft he headed to campus. Marrero has always been able to flash the leather, and he is this year’s surest bet to stay at shortstop, with great range, easy actions and above-average arm strength. He shows promise with the bat, but he has been inconsistent this year and was batting .276/.335/.414 over his first 174 at-bats. Marrero has been frustrating for scouts this spring, not just because he has underperformed but because he has looked so nonchalant doing it. Scouts say Marrero has played without energy this year and has shown off his above-average arm strength only when he needs to. He has above-average raw speed but doesn’t always go at full speed on the bases. Marrero shows power in batting practice, but profiles more as a gap hitter at the next level. While there questions about his bat, he still figures to be a first-rounder because there are so few surefire shortstops in the draft.
Mejia made a great play. Okay. One play does not show that he’s got the overall range and arm to play ML SS.
As for your point about Marrero, I’m not sure how this is relevant to Mejia. If anything BA’s report says Marrero has tools, but was lazy and disappointing.
No one is disputing that Mejia was a good college player. But plenty of good college players don’t make it past AA. As always, we’ll just have to see how he progresses in minor league ball. I’m guessing he goes to Batavia to start.
you are right that a lot of good college players are not good pro players, but a lot of guys who are supposed to be good pro players end up being flops in pro ball. All im trying to say is that lets not be dissapointed in this just because the kid wasnt listed in the top 500. Marrero was hyped and is the known commodity which is why BA has information on him. But maybe scouts keep it quiet about a kid who can play and is not hyped if the scouts know they can get a good player with ML tools in a good spot in the draft. Im sure the Cards FO and scouting departments didnt overlook this kind of stuff.
“Mejia made a great play. Okay. One play does not show that he’s got the overall range and arm to play ML SS.”
I have to look at the play, but unlike offense, one play can indeed tell you how much range and arm a SS has. It’s not as if guys have variable range and arm strength from play to play.
You see some of the hilight plays Ozzie had, for instance, and there’s no way that you could say the Wiz potentially was an average or even slightly-above-average SS on defense.
Anyone think he renegged on a predraft agreement? He wouldn’t have gotten anywhere close to this if not for the new draft rules. I have a feeling that this is much higher than the Cardinals wanted and they aren’t happy wtih it. Why else does it take over a week once FSU was eliminated. I gotta say this may negatively how i percieve him.
And his other options where what, exactly?
I’m saying if this is the Cardinals idea of a predraft deal then, they got taken badly. He got barebly below slot. We could have gotten Trahan for 1.7 mil.
Ah, Stryker. That wound hasn’t healed over yet.
But the Cards wanted Ramsey and they were not as high on Trahan. Therein lies the difference.
As someone who is massively keen on the Baseball America rankings, it is probably pertinent to point out that Ramsey ranked in the 50s, with Trahan in the 20s (IIRC).
You know this for a fact?
I don’t understand how they could value ramsey over trahan… but who knows maybe in 3 years we are eating our words. doubt it though.
likewise
ramsey at the reported level is mind boggling
The track record for HS catchers taken in the first round is pretty poor. A ton turn in to complete busts who never even sniff the majors while a handful actually become more than backups/journeymen.
43 HS catchers have been taken in the bottom of the first round (after the first 15 picks) + supplemental round. 3 have amassed more than 10 WAR over their entire careers.
I never want to feel like I understand the economics of the draft market better than than Cardinals management that run the draft. Today I feel like I do. Why spend that much money and an early pick on someone with so little upside? WTF?
I guess because Mo or anyone else for that matter can bear watching Shane Robinson take another at bat
Well you can believe one of two things
I. The cardinals have no understanding of draft economics and beleve Ramsey has limited upside or
II. The cardinals understand draft economics but believe Ramsey has more than a little upside
I don’t really get it either but I also didnt get the Wong pick last year. I trust they’ve done their homework on Ramsey and hope he really surprise me.
Honestly I think for me even if Ramsey peaks out as a .300 hitter with fifteen homerun power as it would appear his peak probably is I think I still won’t like this pick.
If Ramsey is guaranteed to be a .300 hitter with 15 HR power, you’d take him first overall in the draft. That’s a valuable everyday player in a corner, or one of the best CF in all baseball…
The reality is that you can go back and look at the past drafts, and so many of the rankings are flat out wrong. There are lots of 1st & 2nd round picks that are total busts. And there are 4th to 10th picks that, in hindsight should have gone in front of them(think Allen Craig, Yadier Molina). I’m going to trust that the Cardinal scouts see the same in Ramsey that they saw in John Jay back in ’06. If you can come up with an everyday player, a decent pitcher or two and a bench player or two in every draft…..you can build a strong team.
No-one is questioning that. The concern is that it seems quite likely (without appropriate inside info) that the Cards could’ve got Ramsey in a supp round or even round 2, and paid him equivalent money, whilst drafting a more highly ranked player with the 23rd-overall pick. I don’t like reaches (in general) for that reason.
That’s what it would take for me to like this pick. If he’s a solid starter in center, no problem. If he’s Shane Robinson, that’s a waste.
I’m not an expert but I have a hard time seeing how he’s ever going to be a solid starter in center.
If this is what Cardinals drafts are going to look like under the new system I might need to just stop following the draft. This makes no sense to me. You are telling me that the Astros can sign a high school talent for two million dollars under slot and we cannot talk a college seniors who probably grades out with Jon Jay type of upside to sign for at least five hundred thousand under slot. I understand that the Astros slot was significantly more money but still this just does not make sense. If this was the agreement they had going into the draft they should have looked elsewhere. Correct me if I am wrong were there not a significant number of players drafter after him who signed for under 1.7 million. I like Ramsey as a talent, but 1.6 million is way too much. If this is truly the number as it appears to be then this draft was beyond playing it safe under the new rules. Wacha and Ramsey are nice players and probable major leaguers but to lose Pujols and this all we can get in terms of upside with all of the picks that we had is truly disappointing.
Also, this was a pretty bad draft as far as talent goes….
The fact that the Astros had a pick slotted at 7.2 million and saved nearly 2.4 million alone to sign Lance McCullers and Rio Ruiz to above slot deals.
Something went down here…I wonder if Ramsey backed out of a pre draft deal. I couldnt figure out why he wasnt signed as soon as FSU was eliminated. The fact that this took over a week to complete doesnt pass the smell test to me.
If true the Cardinals should have simply not signed him. Gotten the pick next year and make him rot in Indy Ball for a year and see how much he gest next year. Probably about 100k.
exactly
Precisely how I feel
The level of vindictiveness in some of these comments just appalls me.
I hope that they’re teenagers or at least not yet 30 (by which time there’s no excuse for immature thoughts).
I don’t think that’s a vindictive comment at all. IF (as the OP stated) Ramsey backed out of a pre-draft deal, you can’t argue with the justice of just letting him slide. It’d be his own fault.
If that is what happened they should have just let him walk. Yeah they would not have had the 150,000 or so that he did saved, but he would have been more screwed than us. Not to mention we would get that pick again next year right.
I really hope Callis is wrong on the amount paid to Ramsey…because if you aren’t saving ALOT of money by signing him wayyy under-slot value…this pick makes absolutely noooo sense…this guy is skip schumaker 2.0 or something of that level of player and if you arent saving money….why didnt they go with someone like stroman or someone like that… im sure they could have got someone like that to sign for 1.6 mill…very dissapointing if the amount they are said to be giving him is true
Stroman was taken the pick before by Toronto.
If the amount is correct, and you take talent and price into consideration, this is the worst pick in the draft IMHO.
Your right about Stroman being taken before we could pick, but the point was if we were going to spend nearly the entire amount on a player at that spot…there were several choices that were much better thought of than Ramsey and we likely could have had them sign for 1.6 mill that was the point
Yeah, exactly. They’re not saving any sort of money on this one under the cap, and they get a Supp pick next year in a much stronger draft. The only reason I can see for signing him for this is if they were going to go over their cap (which I don’t think they were) and lose draft picks if they didn’t save the 150k by signing Ramsey.
In all honesty, I’d probably have let him walk for this price anyhow. Got to be a better player available at #23 next year.
The Cards wouldn’t get the pick next year unless they offered Ramsey at least slot value this year, which he would have signed for, so not signing him but getting a replacement pick was not possible.
Serious question here, ive heard what you are talking about which is you have to offer the player some money to get a pick next year..but also heard it was a percentage of slot…could be dead wrong on that one just was curious
I don’t think BC is correct…I believe you have to offer a certain percentage of slot to get the pick, which I’ve read is 30%.
I believe the provision you’re referencing is that if a player fails a physical and the team fails to offer him 40 percent of the assigned value of his pick, he becomes a free agent. In that case, the club’s draft cap would be reduced by the value of his selection. This provision was to account for the Barret Loux situation in 2010.
In any event, maybe there isn’t a requirement to offer at least slot to a pick before receiving a compensation pick the next year – I have seen that point made before but cannot find it in two minutes of google searching.
Ugh…BJM…I feel like you are right. Hopefully this isn’t the biggest contract of his career. I remember thinking a contract this big for Schu was too much. We just signed an amateur Skip, that isn’t even guaranteed to become Skip. That makes no sense.
If his agent did that…I hope a smarter org screws him next year.
I don’t believe the number.
If the Birds thought it would take anything *close* to $1.6M to secure Ramsey, then they drafted him knowing there’d very likely be wiggle room for more than just one other high-upside high schooler. And I just find that premise very hard to believe, given their 11th and 12th round picks.
Now, I like Ramsey. He has more present power than anyone wants to give him credit for, and his plate discipline is excellent (the guy led the wood-bat Cape League in BOTH isolated slugging and walk rate last year). But he’s a senior, of course. And an old one at that.
If the bonus turns out to be more than $1-1.2M, I’ll be shocked.
Or.
Or they already have truly cut-rate deals in place for both the Wildcat draftees. Implausible…but not impossible.
Either way, I’ll keep the faith for right now. ;)
There is not just a ton to cut off of either of arizona guys. Best we could hope for is to save a couple hundred thousand on mejia.
I hope Callis is wrong otherwise this pick falls into “what the…” territory.
All those who said I was insane for insjnuating that the Cardinals handed Ramsey leverage by drafting him in the first round can voice their gevious error in this thread. Better to confess error now than face the wrath of the baseball gods in the hereafter.
Good signing though might have be a slight overpay because he has no leverage but he could be a solid 4th OF down the road plus speed a polished bat coming out of college off the charts makeup. Will he start at a short season club or Quad Cities?
Who says Ramsey has plus speed? He doesn’t, in fact people think he won’t stick in CF because of his speed.
I wouldn’t exactly say he doesn’t have the speed for CF either.
Judging by all the comments here, I just may have to reopen my “Was the draft between their ears” thread over on vivaelbirdos. Seriously: Ramsey given the second highest bonus for a college senior ever?! With the upside between Jay and Schumaker?!
Hopefully Callis has it wrong because otherwise the only reason to pay him this amount is to justify our draft strategy. Translation: Ramsey had us over a barrel and his agent knew it. Kantrovitz had no recourse but to sign him or wear egg on his face until next years draft.
Could have gotten Trahan……..just saying!
We save like 175k with Ramsey that’s all. Simply decline to sign him let him rot in Indy Ball and make 100K next year and take the take on whatever overages we have which won’t be much. Ramsey did NOTHING to help our draft strategy. We aren’t saving enough on him to get either Foody or Williams.
C’mon, guys. I absolutely agree the team should have offered a *much* lower take-it-or-leave-it…but let’s separate the payout from the actual player.
There’s no reason on Heaven or Earth to slap a Schumaker or Jay comp on Ramsey. When Jay played college with the superbats, he never even posted an isolated slugging of .160; Ramsey’s was nearly .300 this year, and .230 each of the two preceeding seasons.
Moreover — and this is the big one for me — as mentioned above, Ramsey retained his power when playing with tree bats last summer on the Cape. Best ISO in that league, folks. More power than Shaffer or Roache, and far more than Piscotty.
Maybe he has no chance to stick in center, but there is *real* upside in that bat. I hate the fact that Ramsey is already 22 1/2 years old…but heck, that’s still younger than Freese and Matt Carp were when drafted, so we can’t say that Ramsey’s age alone precludes eventual hitting excellence at the highest levels.
The work ethic, plate discipline, and durability give Ramsey a much-better-than-usual chance to max out his talents. And max for Ramsey, in his late twenties, could be .300+ with an ISO north of .200.
Schumaker? The guy had one year of college ball, and his isolated slugging barely scraped the century mark. Skip has been small and punchless for-e-ver. Ramsey is neither. He ain’t *big*, but he is not small.
Being a hardworking, lefty-swinging, caucasion outfielder under 6′ 2″ does not make Ramsey the same player as Schumaker. A real comp for Ramsey? I’d say Nick Swisher…but with a chance for more average, and a chance for better glovework.
Just looked at Swisher’s stats. I always assumed he was like 6’2. I think everyone would be ecstatic if he was near the player Swisher has been.
Without the Swisher personality.
FSU is a hitter’s paradise though…I’m a huge fan of the U, so I’ve seen the kid plenty and he’s short on tools and has very limited upside.
There’s a reason the Louisville Slugger player of the year can go undrafted (Nick Petree from Missouri State) and another kid be an All-American in college (Matt Roth) and have next to no pro upside.
Take the college numbers with a large grain of salt as he’s a 22 y/o man beating up on a bunch of younger college kids, and then focus on the tools and you see he is- in fact- a Jon Jay/Skip Schumacher type major league player. Both nice ballplayers, but not someone you burn a high pick and then give a ton of money to.
If they signed Ramsey for $1.6 million, it’s a really bad move from a business and baseball standpoint.
I have to step in here.
Florida State is NOT a hitter’s paradise. In fact, the park factor for FSU is almost exactly neutral at 101; the overall park factor for the stadiums Florida State played in for the season was 100. Here are the numbers.
I’m very disappointed in this bonus, but Ramsey is still a much better player than I think many are giving him credit for.
You can step in there, that’s fine. I have been to, watched a game, and observed that park.
Those park factors are next to worthless to me. They also have Missouri State as an extreme pitchers park at 74/84. The Springfield Cardinals, who play in the same park, are known to be one of the best hitters parks in all of the minors, and might be the best park for HR’s for left-handed hitters in all of the minor leagues. It’s certainly in the discussion.
Florida State is a hitters paradise.
And I say again, you HAVE TO factor in that he’s a 22 y/o beating up on younger players.
The Cardinals employ the age factor into their drafting strategy as much, or more, than any team out there, so even they believe in the theory that age plays a huge role in the development of a player.
Take Ramsey’s numbers into consideration, certainly, but you have to use context as well.
Ramsey was beating up on college players when he was a 21 year old as well. Check Baseball Cube.
Not to the same level…being older MATTERS.
Sure, so compare Ramsey’s age-21 ISO and walk rate with with Jacoby Ellsbury’s, Jon Jay’s, or Zack Cox’s age-21 ISO and walk rate.
This isn’t rocket science.
Isn’t it possible that a park could be a hitter’s paradise compared to other AA fields and a nightmare relative to the rest of a Division 1 circuit?
It’s also possible that those college park factors don’t mean much or rely on unreliable methodology or data.
I understand where you’re coming from the question. I’ve long felt park factors are weighted towards the team on the field too much.
Missouri State finished as the number one pitching staff in the country and Petree didn’t allow a HR at home all season. That doesn’t change, in my view, how hard or easy it is to hit a HR at that park.
Over a long span, Florida State has become known as a hitter’s paradise among players and coaches alike. That’s why I made the statement I made.
I think my criticism is being taken as hoping the player fails, and that’s not the case at all.
Either Petree was not eligible for the draft due to the medical redshirt making him a sophomore, or he didn’t register for it. No way he wouldn’t have gotten drafted – how high is a matter of conjecture.
I am close with the Missouri State baseball program, and Petree was-in fact- eligible to be drafted and was passed over. He was disappointed at not being drafted.
So, there is a way he didn’t get drafted, it happened this season.
“Both nice ballplayers, but not someone you burn a high pick and then give a ton of money to.”
True, but you seem to be operating under a couple misconceptions. 23rd overall is not a high pick in the MLB draft. 1.6M is not a ton of money in MLB.
The expected value of draft slots drops precipitously from 1-15 (not that the very first pick has tremendous expected value either, but the average is a 20 career WAR player–A Garret Anderson or Mookie Wilson). By the time you get to pick 16, your expected career value from that pick is about 5-6 WAR (a Scott Spiezio).
These days, 1 WAR costs maybe $4.5-5M. Note that Carl Crawford got paid $14M to be exactly replacement-level last year. 1.6M for a good chance of getting a decent major leaguer isn’t a lot of money to a MLB club.
I’m not sure why everyone is discounting the likelihood of him sticking in center. The early reports are mixed and are notoriously unreliable.
I am disappointed about the bonus. I don’t understand how we end up paying him like that.
Personally, I think he has a decent chance to stick out there. I certainly hope he does. But I like him in the field. He doesn’t have blazing speed, but he runs well enough, and seems to have solid instincts. A lot like Jon Jay, actually, to be honest. I think he’s a little faster than Jay, though.
Here’s what Callis wrote in BA:
“The highest-drafted college senior in 2012, Ramsey was the 23rd overall choice, which carried an assigned value of $1.775 million. His bonus is the fifth-highest in draft history for a senior. The only seniors to receive more are Matt LaPorta ($2 million from the Brewers in 2007), Kenny Baugh ($1.8 million from the Tigers in 2001), Casey Weathers ($1.8 million from the Rockies in 2007) and Josh Fields ($1.75 million from the Mariners in 2008).”
The announcers at the CWS talked a lot about his defense in CF. So AFAIK, the expectation is that he’ll stick there.
I’m not in any way saying this was a smart move or good value for the Cards. Frankly, when I speculated a few days ago that an agent for one of the unsigned guys had walked back a predraft deal, I didn’t imagine Ramsey was looking at this kind of payout.
What’s the best-case scenario? Maybe a Matt Carpenter-like rise through the minors, where he’s knocking on the door by 2014 and a valuable utility player by 2015. But Carp was a 13th-round pick in 2009. David Freese, the other big senior success story, was a 9th-round pick of the Padres in 2006.
Maybe the Cards have put a monetary value on Ramsey’s personal qualities, and see someone with a high baseball IQ who’s extremely well liked and considered a leader and role model. Or they see more value than other orgs in a high-floor player who’s expected to quickly reach the majors.
Really, I’m just grasping at straws to try to figure out how the Cards see $1.6 million in value in a college senior with Ramsey’s skill set, even a high-performing one. I like him a lot as a player; he makes hard contact and plays with the kind of energy and enthusiasm that fans will love. I just don’t see the potential impact you’d expect from the 23rd overall choice, and a bonus of that size.
at 1.6M, they should have gotten two of him
Baseball America wrote that Ramsey has “average to above-average tools across the board but lacks a standout tool.” Scouts are split on whether or not he can stick in center field; some feel he’s better suited for right field or second base.
I wouldn’t exactly call this a glowing report from BA, however, it’s all up to Ramsey now to prove he’s worth it.
Matt Carpenter or Kolten Wong-rise.
Matt Carpenter would be a starting 3B for a decent number of MLB teams right now (and would be for us if we didn’t already have Freese). Kolten Wong will challenge for the 2B job starting next year.
In fact, having looked at the BA list, we’re currently around $72k OVER budget. Even if Meier and Heyer sign for $100k each, that still only leaves us with around $180k to offer to either Foody or Williams. Obviously, no way we get Williams, but tbh I can’t see how we can afford Foody either. Unless one of those college guys has agreed to sign for like $25k or something we can’t even offer Foody quarter of a mill, which I’d think would be the absolute LEAST he’d be looking for.
Actually, in your scenerio, they have the $180k you suggest PLUS $100K (maximum for picks in Round 11 and later before there is any deduct from the bonus pool) for either = $280k plus up to $456,500 (5% of their total bonus pool), which is the amount that they can go over the total draft cap with only paying a fine of about $342,000 (75%) if they spent all $456,500 and not losing a draft choice.
Thus they could go to about $736000 on EITHER Williams or Foody, IF THEY REALLY WANT TO. Whether they would go out that far for a total cost of up to $1,078,000 (including the 75%penalty) to sign either one remains to be seen.
I am not suggesting they would do that, but if they thought Williams or Foody were worth it, they could.
If the Cards fail to sign both Williams and Foody, the howls about the Ramsey fiasco will intensify. I expect the organization to bite the bullet and pay penalty money to sign one of Williams or Foody. It gives them cover.
that’s the key. according to BA, they have about $440k they can spend OVER a projected bonus before they have to forfeit draft picks, which they obviously won’t do. if they sign Mejia/Heyer to deals to make up the $72k shortffall they are in now, they could offer the limit for 11 round and lower…$100k….plus the $440k… to either one. for $540k, I think they could get one of them. but yes, I think we all thought Ramsay would sign for a lot less than this. the Cards obviously think he is the real deal, and only time will tell. but they won’t get either Williams or Foody, IMO, w/o paying the tax on up to 5% overages.
I’m not sure where you got that (my BA link still shows they are under, even accounting for the Foody signing. They should be $72,090 under. I posted these figures on the farm report because I expected this thread would tail off, but here’s the numbers worth considering:
Prior to the Foody signing (385K), the Cards were $357,090 below slot. Since the first 100K doesn’t count against the figure, the Cards are now $72,090 under.
Up to 5% over slot, the penalty isn’t severe. The team would pay a 75% penalty on the overage only. That means if they end up spending $9,587,655, with the tax their outlay would be $9,931,071.25, and they would not sacrifice draft picks in 2013. I feel it’s safe to say that there’s little chance Williams is worth giving up first round picks so I’ll omit the penalties that would be incurred if they exceed 5%.
Mejia and Heyer have yet to sign. If they sign at slot there’s quite a bit of room to still sign Williams. The first $172,090 wouldn’t incur any penalty at all. The next $456,555 would be taxed 75% by MLB. That means the Cards could still conceivably offer him up to $628,645, give or take however much money over/under slot they use to sign Mejia and Heyer.
Wow, you guys sound like Cubs fans not the fans of the defending world champions. The drafting of college and high school players has always been an ineaxct science as the games/skills of those players doesn’t always translate to the pro game, but stop bashing Ramsey. He had no leverage in this negotiation as a senior and the Cardinals agreed to this high bonus, so they must have high expectations for him. As to the questioning of his skills, I suspect that many making comments on here have seen very little of him playing over the past few years. As someone who has seen him play in more than 120 games over the past four years, I think I may have a little more insight on his skills. Fact is he is very fast (quick) and beat out several routine ground balls for hits, so the lack of speed discussion is ridiculous. He has only played CF for one year, so that may not be the spot he lands. I don’t see him as a power hitter, but more of a line drive, hit to all fields type hitter with good recognition of the strike zone. He will not be outworked regardless of where he ends up and you will not find a finer person to have on your team which may not mean a lot to a “win at ll costs” mentality, but it still means something to a lot of folks.
His plus-plus cheerleader ability doesn’t fly in professional baseball, especially after high A… and his speed isn’t going to be good enough to beat out arms that actually project at the big league level. He simply isn’t good enough player to “win at all cost” when your opponent is just flat-out better than you, becasue that’s going to be the case for him when he gets to AA and AAA. 1.6 million for Ramsey is a complete joke- i couldn’t be more disappointed in this decision..
Unrelated question:
Anyone know when Piscotty will play for QC? I notice he’s not on the roster. Is he workout out with the team? I thought he’d be on the field by now.
Should be “is he working out.” (Of all the typos for me to make …)
FSU is a complete laughing pad… and John-Ford Griffin was over rated and benefited from it financially also. This 1.6 million for Ramsey makes zero sense to me– considering the Cards could have had BPA at 23 overall for 2 million.
This has been pointed out before, but FSU is a completely neutral park:
http://www.boydsworld.com/data/pf2011.html
And if you believe those numbers, then you believe that the Springfield Cardinals play in an extreme pitchers park.
Could be very different between the NCAA and Texas League.
How so? These college numbers are simply not believable to me.
We have scores of data showing that Springfield is a hitters paradise and hitter after hitter comes through there and has his best power years there.
I’ll take the word of players/coaches/scouts over the word of Boyd’s World telling me that Hammons Field is a pitchers park, and Florida State has a neutral field.
Cards have signed Foody according to D. Goold (http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/birdland/cardinals-agree-to-terms-with-foody/article_efcb1984-bf9f-11e1-80ac-0019bb30f31a.html). Sorry for ugly link. Site is looking weird right now.
Joe and “vision”:
If Ramsey is so short on tools, and his excellent power is a phony byproduct of FSU’s stadium, then how do you account for his having the *highest* isolated power on the Cape last summer? Higher than Victor Roache, Richie Shaffer, or anybody else.
By the way, Ramsey also led the entire Cape Cod League in highest percentage of walks, and overall OPS.
Ramsey had next to no leverage whatsoever, I’ll sure grant you that. But I’ll bet my last money he has at least a few 3-WAR MLB seasons in him. Again, the tremendous durability he’s shown, combined with a laudable work ethic and excellent patience at the dish, gives him better odds than most to max out his talent — which is not inconsiderable, from where I sit.
People downgrade his speed…but he had 6 triples and grounded into ONE double play in 67 games. Sounds like a guy who runs very well to me.
People doubt the power…but he killed the woodbat Cape League, just like college.
People talk about FSU’s stadium distorting his numbers…but according to collegesplits.com, once we adjust for home park AND difficulty of schedule, Ramsey’s OPS actually goes UP, from 1.065 to 1.071.
Ramsey’s age is a big drawback. But to me, it looks like that may be the only meaningful drawback. And it’s offset by a TON of positives. ;)
The question isn’t really whether Ramsay will turn out to be a good player or not. I guarantee that everyone that posts here hopes that he does. The question is about draft strategy and value of a pick. No one claims that Ramsay was a first round talent in this draft, therefore, the Cardinals must have been expecting to get value from him that doesn’t have to do with his talent for playing baseball. That value came in the form of dollars. Now that they have signed him for first round money, they aren’t getting either the dollar value or the talent value out of him, so the pick makes no sense.
The arguments about how people are underestimating him are irrelevant to the decision to draft him in the first round (unless you think that everyone else is wrong and he was, in fact, a first round talent – then, by all means, go ahead).
Bob:
Short on tools? Is this even debatable? Pretty old for the Cape at 21 years old– so consider me suspect. He’s going to be entering his first full season of professional ball at 23 years old and really doesn’t project enough for me at position to pay him 1,6 million dollars. Not my money— think it could have been invested better, but i’m not going to lose any sleep over, because i have zero expectation for Ramsey.
As for that ball park- it sits facing NE- when the winds are coming out of the NW or SW- which is usually the case from late-late winter through early spring is a complete laughing pad for a lefty hitter, IMO.
If you believe that Ramsey is big on tools then we can’t have an intelligent discussion on the subject. He’s not.
If you believe that Ramsey has had excellent numbers in the Cape and those numbers translate directly, then we can just grab a scoresheet from the Cape cod league next year and go down the list for the best draft ever!
Truth is; Tools matter. Age matters. Money matters.
I’m certainly hoping his career is a monster and he proves to be a special player, but going on the information we currently have, you have to pan the pick and hope for the best. That’s what I’m doing.
Oops, I dropped a digit on the OPS for Ramsey. Shoulda been:
Once adjusted for FSU’s home park AND difficulty of schedule, Ramsey’s OPS goes from an incredible 1.165 to an even incredibler 1.171. Sorry for cheating you out of 100 points of OPS, James.
If Ramsey ends up being a clone of Jon Jay as a possible .300 hitter with 10-15 HR and can handle CF them he’s worth a first round pick and the money. we’ll find out in a few years, jsut have to wait to see.
We will find out in a few years because he is ready for Quad Cities because off that polished bat. Ramsey and Jay are similar in the off the charts makeup.
People need to calm down. Don’t we have some faith in the FO that they Know what they are doing? We signed Foody and I never expected us to sign Williams. He seems better off dominating college and getting drafted in 1st rd of 2015. But all these comparisons to jay and schumaker make it seem like they aren’t good players. Jay has been a .300 hitter since he got to the bigs and has been a plus CF. I’m not sure what drugs you guys are on but that sounds like 1st rd talent to me. And I think the skip cOmps are off base. Ramsey has much more power potential and dominated the ACC. skip started at Ucsb for one year and got drafted in the 5th rd. big difference
Completely agree.
People who complain about picking Ramsey with the 23rd overall pick don’t seem to realize that if you get a guy who has a mediocre 10 WAR career, you’ve already done considerably better than you can expect at that draft slot. It’s as if they’ve never studied MLB draft history or realize just how many complete busts there are (and how few even mediocre players can be found) in the draft past the very first 15 picks in the entire draft or something.
No, people who complain about Ramsey aren’t unaware of the bust rate for draft picks. Indeed, the bust rate applies just as much to Ramsey – he hasn’t actually had a 10 WAR career, in case you hadn’t noticed.
Well, if you believe the bust rate for a college senior who killed it in college is just as high as an 18-year old, then you might as well believe that the ceiling for Ramsey is as high as that of a HS prospect.
Who cares? Maybe the bust rate for 17 y/o Carlos Correa is higher than Ramsey – still doesn’t mean Ramsey would be a better pick than Correa. The mere fact that Ramsey “killed it” in college doesn’t make him a good choice with the 23rd pick, especially when he gets paid almost full slot.
“The mere fact that Ramsey “killed it” in college doesn’t make him a good choice with the 23rd pick, especially when he gets paid almost full slot.”
According to you. Personally, I do believe the Cardinals FO are better evaluators of talent than some guys in the internet reading BA.
Ah, yes, the appeal to authority. And yet you’ve also commented about the high bust rates of the very same picks by FOs.
Appeal to track record, actually. They’ve built one of the top farm systems in MLB following the exact same draft strategy they did this year, if you haven’t noticed.
What “exact same strategy” are you talking about? When have the Cards taken old, college seniors in the 1st or Supp. round?
The very best prospects in the Cards system are former high school guys with big-time tools (Shelby Miller, Tyrell Jenkins) and international FAs signed young (Martinez, Taveras). Moreover, by far the best prospect the Cards have produced under their recent “track record” is a late first-round HS guy with big tools – Colby Rasmus. The evidence to rebut your points (which are irrelevant anyway) is staring you in the face.
Even the college guys are not like Ramsey – Wong was very, very young for a college player, Cox and Swagerty were draft-eligible sophmores.
You keep mentioning guys like Allen Craig or Matt Carpenter – but these guys weren’t early round picks – Craig was an 8th Rd pick and Carp was a 13th Rd pick. These guys prove my point, not yours. The point isn’t that Ramsey was drafted at all, it’s that he was drafted at #23 in the 1st round and given a close-to-slot bonus.
So all you’re left with is a worthless appeal to authority in the face of contradictory evidence.
Hopefully Ramsey ends up being a great player; but you have no more evidence of that than I do or anyone else does at this point.
1. They’ve taken plenty of college players. Over 80% of the time every year, in fact, and the majority of the time with their first and second round picks ever since their current philosophy started when Luhnow took over. People keep bring up that James Ramsey is a senior, but that’s not terribly relevant (IMHO) considering that he mashed in his age-21 year as well. To give an example, JD Drew didn’t suddenly because a less desirable or less talented player after his one year in independent ball.
2. Zack Cox was age-21 when taken, and age matters more than school year. I agree that Kolton Wong was young.
3. Since Luhnow took over, Brett Wallace, Lance Lynn, Chris Perez & Jon Jay have been taken with 1st or 2nd round picks (Tyler Greene as well). All college guys. All contributors at the major league-level.
Finally, I know a few of you guys up above say to take college accomplishments with a grain of salt, but here are the ABCA players of the year from 2001-2010:
2010 – Anthony Rendon, Rice University
2009 – Mike Leake, Arizona State University
2008 – Buster Posey, Florida State University
2007 – David Price, Vanderbilt University
2006 – Brad Lincoln, University of Houston
2005 – Alex Gordon, University of Nebraska
2004 – Jered Weaver, Long Beach State University
2003 – Rickie Weeks, Southern University
2002 – Khalil Greene, Clemson University
2001 – Mark Prior, University of Southern California
Trevor Bauer won in 2011. James Ramsey won in 2012.
Most were juniors when they won, though Khalil Greene was also a senior. It’s not as if Ramsey was crap until his senior year and then had a fluke senior year, either. He hit .364/.444/.593 his junior year; over .400 OBP all 4 years and over .500 SLG the past 3 years.
Hmmm. Let’s talk James Ramsey’s “tools,” shall we?
1.) Hit for average, or “hit tool.” With the less-lively college bats, Ramsey hit .360+ each of the past two years, and batted comfortably over .300 on the Cape last year. So I’m comfortable putting a 60-70 grade on that tool.
2.) Hit for power. Led the Cape in isolated slugging, so there’s that. Some people feel his home park, however, wildly distorted his collegiate slugging — which was very good in 2010 and 2011, and truly outstanding this year, of course. Home park. Well, let’s see how Ramsey’s 2012 isolated slugging compared to that of his teammates, who obviously enjoyed the same park advantages. Below I’ve ranked the ten Seminoles who had at least 100 AB’s this year:
Ramsey .274
Gonzalez .180
Travis .179
Miller .137
Johnson .134
Boyd .130
Brizuela .100
Nogowski .079
Delph .077
McGee .045
This list requires no comment, really. Obviously, whatever advantage was gained by Ramsey, it doesn’t appear to have infected his teammates to nearly the same extent. I’ll call his power tool 55-65.
3.) Run. Lessee…Ramsey grounded into one DP all year, and hit more triples in 233 AB’s than the rest of his teammates did in roughly 2,000 AB’s. Yeah, that’s a fact. So I’ll put a 60 on the speed tool. Maybe 65.
4.) Field. Well, his head coach played him in center, where he gunned down four runners, committed just one error, and recorded nearly 2 1/2 putouts per game. I feel comfortable saying the glove is a 55-60 or better.
5.) Throw. I’ve read that the arm strength is average or better, and same for accuracy — and he tends to throw to the right base, as well. So what’s that when you add it up? I’d say 60, perhaps even 65.
Golly. Looks to me like he might actually…be…described…as…toolsy!
I’ll say it again, for the 43rd time, the Cards overpaid at $1.6. Absolutely they did. But not because Ramsey lacks tools or projectability; what he lacks (well, lacked) was negotiating leverage.
And Roarke? I’ll claim it right here: Ramsey WAS a first-round talent this year. Maybe even a top 15 talent, depending whether or not he can be an average defensive CF in The Show.
Thanks, Bob. Good points. But I know you know the value of age relative to league. Ramsey wouldn’t be young for a prospect in AA. Ramsey is about the same age as guys like Collin Walsh, Robert Stock, Greg Garcia, Zack Cox, etc. He has talent and was a great college player. But I don’t think there is much projectability there – he needs to move quickly and be in AA by next year and knocking on the door shortly thereafter.
Bob:
I respect that opinion and you certainly have arguments to back it up. I hope that you are correct. Of course, even if you are correct, it still doesn’t change the fact that no one else was going to take Ramsay in the first round. No matter how much the Cardinals loved him, the only reason to take him that high was because of money – and they didn’t really save much.
Off topic a little bit: the bit that people argue about trusting the FO and assuming they know more than we do always irritates me. I certainly hope that they do know more than we do, but what is the point of going on a blog and discussing these issues with others if that is your position? That the FO knows what they are doing better than we do is probably right, but it certainly doesn’t make for a very fun discussion if that statement is intended to end all debate.
Well said.
But how cool would it be to see the scouting reports and have access to the data? From the outside we can guess at their strategy (this year’s draft would be a target-rich environment for game-theory wonks), but where does strategy end and valuation begin?
I would love to know what metrics they use to put value on these guys and rank them in some order that makes sense to them (even if it doesn’t always make sense to us).
Talking about trusting the FO, I think it is fair to say the FO has done a great job replenishing the farm system while still keeping a playoff caliber team in st. louis. It looks like were at the stage where our high ceiling top prospects (Taveras, Wong, Miller, Adams) are going to start joining the team in the next few years.
Besides Taveras, it doesnt look like we have any outfield prospects that will be able make an impact in the next few years. I think Ramsey will be in AAA by end of 2013 or start of 2014. I look at the Ramsey pick as a guy that will be a fast mover through the system, joining the team in 2014 or 2015. Can be a 25 year old 4th outfielder with a good bat and solid d and decent speed. Plus good club house guy, which DOES MATTER. Sounds like first round value to me. People talk about high floor like it’s a negative.
Finding a 4th outfielder with a good bat and decent speed is pretty easy on the FA market. For example, we could have signed Cody Ross this offseason for $3MM (and Cody Ross is a better case scenario for Ramsey). You say it “DOES MATTER,” but really, it doesn’t. Finding some role players in the draft is good and has some value, but what REALLY MATTERS is finding stars in the draft and then having them under club control.
Maybe Ramsey will be a star, but what people are arguing is that Ramsey was not a good pick at 23 because he does not have the upside and star potential of other players. That’s a valid posiition – that he has a high floor doesn’t rebut that position.
IMO Cody Ross does not compare well to Ramsey. Ross has solid power, but he strikes out a lot and doesn’t draw many walks. Plus he is not a base stealing threat. Ramsey makes good contact and draws walks. Plus I think Ramsey will be a better fielder, although Ross isn’t a bad fielder. And 3 million will pay his salary for 3 years. With this year being a weak draft, I think the Cards did well picking some guys that they project to be mlb ready by 2015. Picking a “star” at no. 23 is not as easy as it looks.
And how can you say it doesn’t matter? Why do you think Colby Rasmus left St. Louis? He was supposed to be a “star” but he did not have a good attitude. Thats why john jay is our centerfielder and James Ramsey certainly wont cause the problems Rasmus did.
“Picking a “star” at no. 23 is not as easy as it looks.”
This is a good point & it seems to be one that many people either ignore or don’t know. The average career WAR for a 23rd overall pick is 2.5. At that slot, you simply don’t have high-ceiling+high-floor guys who scream “STAR”. They’re usually gone by the 5th overall pick (and definitely by the 15th).
Also, WAR is WAR. Getting a guy who has a 50% chance of being a 10 WAR guy in his 6 years under team control (ending up with a career WAR of 15 because he spent his prime years under team control) is a better option than getting a guy who has a 10% chance of being a 30 WAR guy in his 6 years under team control (ending up with 60 career WAR), especially since the star would get more money in arbitration.
Another issue is whether you think it is easier to project ceilings or floors. Personally, I think it’s easier to project floors & take the prognosis of any player’s “ceiling” with a grain of salt. After all, what was Allen Craig’s ceiling when he was drafted?
“it still doesn’t change the fact that no one else was going to take Ramsay in the first round.”
You know this because you’ve talked to the other clubs already?
“That the FO knows what they are doing better than we do is probably right, but it certainly doesn’t make for a very fun discussion if that statement is intended to end all debate.”
Bitching about what the Cards did without having some information that you can add doesn’t make for a very fun discussion, either IMHO.
Richard:
I don’t disagree with you – the blind bitching (which some people enjoy for some reason) is just as boring as the blind trust in the FO. Personally, I try and add some rationale to my position because I enjoy real debate.
And I suppose stating that no one else was going to take Ramsay in the first round is a little silly because that is something that is impossible to know. I suppose the better point is that I haven’t seen or heard anyone talking about him as though he was a possible pick in the first round.
BTW, if anyone cares, here’s a good site that explains in good part why I feel the way I do (even though they’re talking about drafting basketball players and we’re talking about drafting baseball players): http://wagesofwins.com/
It seems as if a ton of people on this site still evaluate prospects the way it was done in the dark ages: They like a guy because he _looks_ athletic, they can see _potential_ in the kid; never mind actual production or measurable baseball skills–the things that actually go in to winning baseball games.
Some production doesn’t translate from college to pros. LSU’s Rafi Rhymes hit about .470 this year for LSU and was drafted in the 22nd round I believe because he doesn’t have the physical tools to hit that well against better competion.
Tools matter so much more than college stats.
Sorry, I’m not religious, and I’m not a big believer in blind faith. If you had research to back up your faith, you could sway me, but all the research I’ve seen have shown that college picks produce (slightly) more WAR on average than HS players. This is especially true outside of the top 15 overall picks, where pretty much all of the big-time toolsy high-ceiling&high-floor prospects are picked up.
I know that the Tampa Rays (at least early in their organization) were very big on tools, and of their 13 1st rounders through 2009, 8 were high schoolers, yet 2 of their college 1st rounders with insane college stats (Evan Longoria and David Price; Longoria also destroyed the Cape Cod league) have produced almost double the WAR for the Rays as all their high school 1st rounders combined (Josh Hamilton is a stud now, but the Rays got absolutely 0 value out of their investment in him; seems that the character & maturity that fans who focus on tools tend to pooh-pooh do matter a little after all).
Indeed. I believe the trick is looking at the right college stats.
Raph Rhymes, for instance, doesn’t walk enough and has quite poor isolated power. Virtually his entire offensive value comes from his batting average (in other words, he’s Shane Robinson junior). There’s no way he keeps up his AVG in higher levels of ball, and unless he can hit over .300, he won’t have much value in MLB.