Memphis vs. Nashville, 7:05pm – John Gast
Springfield @ Frisco, 7:00pm – Scott McGregor
Palm Beach vs. Bradenton, 6:35pm – Brad Watson
Quad Cities @ Kane County, 6:30pm – Hector Hernandez
Batavia vs. Connecticut, 7:05pm – Tim Cooney
Johnson City @ Greeneville, 7:00pm – Cory Jones
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Baseball America has released their mid-season Top 50 Prospects.
Cardinals well represented with:
Oscar Taveras #18
Shelby Miller #20
Carlos Martinez #26
Kolten Wong #44
Interesting that Matt Adams isn’t in their top 100.
Also interesting:
None of the home-grown hitters on the current team — Yadi, Freese, Craig, Jay — was ranked in BA’s top 100 at any point.
That’s not a knock on BA. If an average of a dozen guys in each organization merit some consideration, that’s 360 players to sift through, weighing performance vs. scouting reports, age vs. level, and draft position and bonus size.
The one consistent bias I see is toward guys who start out with the biggest bonuses, and against out-of-nowhere guys like Pujols, even when the performance is otherworldly. But the longer I follow it the more I understand it as a shorthand way of trusting scouts over stats.
Doh! Just realized it’s top 50, not top 100. Disregard!
Even worse: I just read the articles. They have Matt Adams as “also receiving votes” for their top 50, which would put him the top 55 or so.
They have Rosenthal on their list of rising talent and Cox among the tumblers. No surprises there.
How is Oscar Taveras listed behind Arenado, Lindor, Castellanos, Olt, and Machado. Their is no question about it that he is one of the top 3 hitting prospects in all of baseball.
Midseason lists are usually pretty silly but this looks like it was cobbled together in May and never touched again. The best part is BA’s continued hilarious over valuing of like every Red Sox prospect (note: I love BA and give them money but they hilariously hype up Sox prospects way more than every other prospect source of note)
I think OT is the second best position prospect in baseball behind profar who looks like the clear cut number 1. Here’s my thinking:
Lindor: OT is only slightly older and had 120 pts higher average and 300 pts higher OPS in midwest league Lindor has better speed and glove but still hasnt hit anywhere near Oscars production
Arenado: OT is a year younger and he is arguably the mid season MVP of the Texas league while arenado has just a solid year in the same league. Plus OT plays at more premium defensive position.
Olt- he looks like a great 3b who can hit and play great defense but he’s almost 24 playing in AA. him and OT are the two best hitters in the Texas league but Oscar is almost four years younger!
CAstellanos: same age but OT defiantely outperformed him in the Midwest league last year. Oscar is also showing much more power than Him.
Machado- Hit 254 last year in A ball, is hitting .266 in AA this year and is the same age as Oscar.
Wil Myers- Last year in a full season in TX league, in 354 ab, he hit .254 with 8 hrs and 49 rbis and a .745 ops. Not that great at all. He has hit .328 this year with 27 hrs and 72 rbis split between AA and AAA but I expect Oscar in the big show at this time next year. Myers is the only guy I would be okay with being ranked ahead of OT but 15 spots is way too big of a gap.
I also agree with Evan and Bob – Profar, Myers, OT and then everyone else. As to Myers stats last year, he had a wierd accident in a rain storm that screwed up his knee, it then got infected, and it messed up his season along with his cockiness getting knocked down a peg. He got going again in the AFL.
Zach, and especially Evan: you guys hit the nail on the head.
When it comes to position players, there’s Profar, Taveras, Myers, then a dropoff to everyone else.
Arenado should be in the same range as Kolten Wong, but probably below the Hilo Hammer. Yes, Nolan is several months younger. But that’s where his advantages stop. Wong has him by nearly 100 points of OPS, has a markedly better BB/K ratio, offers more defensive value, and contributes more on the basepaths.
BA is likely too high on Martinez (the ability to throw 180+ innings is still very much in question), but Taveras is top 3 overall — no pitcher should be above him or the aforementioned other two — and Wong belongs in the 15-20 range.
You’re more than welcome to knock BA, Lou. They’ve systematically underrated the Redbird farm system over the past decade-plus…a fact eloquently borne out by a thorough (and fun!) evaluation of BA’s consistently, even bizarrely misguided Cards/Cubs rankings by someone named SoonerNC at the Scout.com sight several months back.
Even this past offseason, when Goldstein, Law, and Sickels rated the Birds 3rd, 4th, and 5th, respectively, BA had the StL system *initially* 14th, before amending the ranking to a still-silly 10th.
Anyway, I’m hoping for something nice outta John Gast tonight; I think maybe he’s got a chance to be the #2 lefty out of the Redbird pen (provided a move to relief added a couple ticks to the heater). He’s been cuffed around his last few starts, and could really use a bounceback game. Go get ‘em, J.G.!
I think I’ll wait to see what KLaw has to say next week. If it helps Kevin Goldstein tweeted this week that a scout he talked to said Oscar Taveras is the #1 prospect to him over Wil Myers.
BA is an overtly late adaptor. By the time they “get it right” it’ll be too late.