Comments on: Daily Farm Report – 7/6/12

By: Vision

Vision — Tue, 10 Jul 2012 12:43:26 +0000

No, please show me where I’m wrong from a pretty straight forward stat that is easily calculated.

That FIP does a better job of predicting part is a quote from Fangraphs’ library, or are you going to make condescending remarks that allude to the fact they don’t know what they’re doing as well?

By: Enigma

Enigma — Mon, 09 Jul 2012 14:25:20 +0000

His last start in Springfield he topped out at 88-89 (on the Springfield gun).

By: bc

bc — Mon, 09 Jul 2012 02:13:51 +0000

I should know better than to discuss any sort of advanced stat on this site, so rather than disagree with your points, I digress.

By: Vision

Vision — Sun, 08 Jul 2012 22:24:41 +0000

An ERA estimator that is better for predicting a pitchers true talent level. I. E. projecting what he is moving forward.

FIP does a fine job of this as well, so it’s fine to just use that.

FIP does a better job of predicting the future than measuring the present, as there can be a lot of fluctuation in small samples. It is less effective in describing a pitcher’s single game performance and is more appropriate in a season’s worth of innings.

I calculated his FIP if he had given up 3 HR’s rather than 5 (his rate thus far in career), and used the current run environment in the PCL of approximately 3.9. His FIP would be 4.05 given that change.

By: Vision

Vision — Sun, 08 Jul 2012 22:09:41 +0000

You downgrade everyone based on age. You downgrade Ramsey based on age. You downgrade Lyons based on age.

Age is age, regardless of time in a system.

By: cariocacardinal

cariocacardinal — Sun, 08 Jul 2012 04:08:11 +0000

Young has me intrigued as well.

By: bc

bc — Sun, 08 Jul 2012 00:39:05 +0000

Well, good luck getting xFIP for minor leaguers. Also SIERA is an ERA estimator, not a projection. But whatever, it doesn’t really matter. His FIP is clearly affected by HR rate in a small sample, so not much to be gleaned there.

By: jjray

jjray — Sat, 07 Jul 2012 21:32:51 +0000

Garcia is a good one to keep an eye on. It’s only his first year above JC so hard to get excited yet. Anxious to see what happens when he gets to PB.

By: Tom s.

Tom s. — Sat, 07 Jul 2012 20:06:12 +0000

Uoflx3 – the LOB rate attracted my attention too. It is interesting though, that Lyons has never had an LOB rate over 70 where you’d usually see it. He’s been very homer prone throughout his brief MIL career. Maybe it’s just a sample size issue, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.

By: UofIx3

UofIx3 — Sat, 07 Jul 2012 19:02:57 +0000

His LOB rate of 48% is far below his normal rate of 65-70%; some of that is likely due to giving up homers with runners on. Curious to see if the rise in HR% is a temporary blip or because he’s overmatched. Likely the former since his other peripheral stats look good. Here’s hoping!