Tyler Lyons has been the second best pitcher for the Memphis Redbirds this year, despite being promoted from Springfield midseason. The best pitcher, Joe Kelly, is holding his own with the big club. The lesson here with Lyons is look past the ERA. We will look past the ERA and much further after the jump.
I previously wrote about Tyler Lyons last season with his quiet success at Palm Beach. He finished up with a tRA+ of 105.
It was a bit of a surprise when the Cardinals sent Tyler Lyons to the Arizona Fall League, which is also known as “Prospect Finishing School”, but Lyons was old enough, already 23 to be pushed further.
And Lyons has been pushed further this year and has earned it. He had 12 starts in the hitters haven of the Texas League with Springfield this year and compiled a solid 3.92 ERA and a very good 122 tRA+. Despite the ugly 6.18 ERA (pay no attention to the ERA!) after his promotion to Memphis, Lyons has actually been better with a 141 tRA+ in 5 starts with FIP of 4.25 and SIERA of 2.95 both supporting him as well.. Let’s take a look at his statistical profile.
|
Year |
Age |
Tm |
ERA |
FIP |
SIERA |
GB% |
LD% |
BABIP |
K% |
BB% |
HR/9 |
BB/9 |
K/9 |
|
2011 |
23.33 |
4.50 |
3.61 |
3.91 |
42.4% |
15.5% |
.305 |
19.7% |
7.2% |
0.77 |
2.78 |
7.56 |
|
|
2012 |
24.33 |
3.92 |
3.67 |
3.66 |
54.0% |
11.5% |
.333 |
19.7% |
6.9% |
0.84 |
2.66 |
7.55 |
|
|
2012 |
24.33 |
6.18 |
4.25 |
2.95 |
35.1% |
11.7% |
.310 |
26.1% |
6.1% |
1.63 |
2.28 |
9.76 |
|
|
- |
- |
MiLB Total |
4.55 |
3.73 |
3.73 |
45.5% |
13.6% |
.315 |
20.6% |
7.0% |
0.92 |
2.66 |
7.89 |
As you can see Lyons is not a huge strikeout pitcher. With an MiLB total of 7.89 per 9 innings he is not over the magic threshold of 9 per 9 innings, but with a low BB/9 of 2.66 for his career, his strikeout to walk hovers around 3/1 which is a great sign.
In Memphis he has not been much of a ground ball pitcher in his first 6 starts, but in Springfield he was. One thing is certain; he has been able to avoid the solid contact this year with line drive rates around 11% in both stops this year. (League average is about 16% and 18% in Springfield and Memphis respectively.)
His home run rates are inflated in Memphis, which pushes up his FIP and ERA. (Similar to the way that Shelby Miller’s home run rates are up this year… hmm.) Should his homerun rate return to normal, those numbers will as well. But, do not let that confuse you, Lyons is pitching well already. He has not yet pitched in the Pacific Coast League’s most notorious hitters havens of Albuquerque, Colorado Springs, Las Vegas, Reno, Round Rock and Tuscon, so take results there with a proper park factors as well.
First and foremost, Lyons is a left-handed pitcher, which gives him value over and above any right handed pitchers. But, looking at his splits below, he gets out right-handers at about the same clip as left-handers. That is a great sign that he will not be limited to the role of a LOOGY going forward and is able to be a starting pitcher. As you can see, he strikes out lefthanders at a greater rate, but it is not a huge disparity.
|
Split |
BF |
IP |
FIP |
SIERA |
GB% |
LD% |
BABIP |
K% |
BB% |
KS% |
HR/9 |
BB/9 |
K/9 |
|
v L as L (MiLB) |
209 |
49.0 |
3.75 |
3.60 |
41.7% |
14.6% |
.292 |
22.0% |
7.2% |
15.3% |
0.92 |
2.76 |
8.45 |
|
v R as L (MiLB) |
582 |
137.0 |
3.72 |
3.78 |
46.8% |
13.2% |
.323 |
20.1% |
6.9% |
14.1% |
0.92 |
2.63 |
7.69 |
Here’s a video of Lyons from the Arizona Fall League last offseason. He has a throwing motion that takes him way over the top, which would indicate why he isn’t necessarily much better at getting out lefthanders vs. righthanders.
Stat blocks courtesy of Minor League Central.
Video courtesy of MLBProspectPortal.com.
Entries (RSS)
That HR/9 in Memphis is just ugly as a boil, and as you say, that’s without going to the real PCL launching pads. I would have a rather difficult time reconciling that with the statement that he “has been able to avoid the solid contact this year”. What’s going on there?
Lyons K Rate and Walk Rate are pretty impressive. But that HR/9 is horrid.
27.2 innings in AAA. I wouldn’t read too much in to his HR rate given what it’s been at other levels.
We’ll know better at the end of the year what he can do.
As many of you can remember, Wainwright gave up 7 HRs in his first 26.2 innings this year, for a HR/9 of 2.36 (while, for the most part, avoiding solid contact).
In short, his numbers should come with a small sample size warning, especially for a number like HR/9 that is so luck dependent.
Lyons was sent to the AZFL because the cardinals had no one else to send because higher prospects needed to be shut down.
Most of the time in that league players pick up tips from other players, keep in mind that Lyons played with LHP Hultzen last fall.
Someone may argue the point but I think in general they rush many of the pitchers, thus exposing them earlier than need be. I am not convinced any pitcher is the real deal until he can get through the next season repeated and gotten better. I have only seen that from Lance Lynn. If they had started him earlier than they did he may not have been as affective as he is now.
What I am talking about , example would be Jess Todd. And then there is Shelby Miller.
MLB players second time around (maybe even the first) would eat up these lefties.
????
Don’t know how “exposing them earlier than need be” is a bad thing, unless you think moving them up quickly somehow retards their development (or you think they’re worth something in the low minors as tradebait).
If you do think there is development retardation, I’d have to ask you to consider the possibility that even if the Cards had left, say, Jess Todd down in High-A until he was 25 he still wouldn’t have turned out differently.
TINSTAAPP is my view. Most pitchers who do well in the low minors don’t actually end up contributing much, if anything, at the major league level.
As for Lyons, he’s 24. It was time to move him up to a more age-appropriate level to see what he could do.
BTW, Lance Lynn was in AAA for a cup at age 22 and there full-time his age 23 season.
I left out Lynn because he struggled his first year in AAA. Second year much improved. He also is a much better pitcher, physically and mentally than most below him.
I do agree with your view. Most pitchers who do well in the low minors don’t actually end up at the major league level.
I also believe that he’s being pushed for trade bait along with the few that are not experiencing injury issues.
What I am wondering, do teams want more of the same type of pitcher that’s found in every league?
Some of them turn out to have value. Not all pitchers are exactly the same, and those better versed in pitching may understand it better, but just slightly better command or a slightly better off-speed pitch or slightly more late movement on a fastball or slightly better stamina or a slightly better game plan on attacking hitters may make all the difference in the world for a pitcher.