I was going to write about another player for today, but with Shelby Miller the hot topic today thanks to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The quote and my analysis are after the jump.
For the first time the organization might be willing to include elite prospect Shelby Miller in trade talks. Miller, 21, has labored at Triple-A Memphis this season while others, such as Kelly, Trevor Rosenthal, Carlos Martinez and Tyrell Jenkins continue to advance.
The Cardinals also project collegiate first-round draft pick Michael Wacha as a fast-mover.
Ok, first and foremost, before we go setting ourselves on fire, the huge qualifier of “might” is right there in the sentence. So, the Cardinals have gone from “no way” to “so, you are saying there’s a chance” with regards to trading Shelby Miller. I’d be open to the Cardinals trading Miller for the right deal – the right deal being a major league starter with a cost-controlled contract. Other that than that, I’m not so sure.
Miller’s K% has ticked down and his BB% has ticked up so far this year in AAA and we are all officially a little worried. The Cardinals have attempted to straighten him out with a “no shake” rule and skipped a start to work on mechanics. His velocity has reportedly been down from previous years. But, his HR/Balls in Air ratio is off the chart and he is allowed a lot more fly balls this year which means a lot more chances for them to go out. He’s still 21 years old and still the youngest pitcher on his team by a year and a half.
What do you think? What would be the right deal for Miller in your opinion? Or is it a “hands off” situation?
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I am fine. I really don’t think there should ever be a “no-trade” list for prospects. All guys should be available in the right situation. Especially if your a contending team.
For instance, I like Cole Hamels. But only in a trade and sign situation. And those really don’t happen any more.
Plus, with the new rules in place, the price for players at the deadline drop dramatically. This year especially. I think the cards can make some improvements without sacrificing Shelby.
We might have a little edge as far as Cole Hamels goes. I believe his wife’s family are Missourians. Never can tell.
They own a home in the Branson area and were married in Springfield, MO.
wow really? thanks for that little info I’m going to have to keep an eye out for Cole since i live in Springfield/Branson!
For the right deal, but I’m skeptical that’s happening this summer. His performance this summer erodes his value; I’d be worried about selling low.
Remember he’s still very young for Triple A he’s only 21. Still has a lot of potential just lacks makeup and maturity out on the mound still has the plus stuff just doesn’t know how to mix in his curve-ball/change-up.
That’s more or less why I think they’d be selling low on him.
Miller won’t go unless it’s for a cost controlled years for an elite pitcher. He won’t leave for a pending FA or reliever.
Zuke seems to me right that there should be no absolute “no trade” list. The problem is that I don’t feel I have an evaluation of what Miller’s true long-term value is. He could be a year of development away from providing 5 cost-controlled years of Matt Cain. He could be less. He just might be more.
Remember that because he has been pushed, he really does have to learn things at AAA, against 25-28 year-olds (some of whom have been to the Show), that other pitchers would have learned in High A or AA. He is not in AAA just to polish and mature.
I’ve seen inconsistent reports about his velocity. Some reports I’ve seen say it is down, or was down. Others have said it is back up. Does anyone have firm knowledge (like sitting behind the scouts at a recent game and hearing their readings) of his recent starts?
Heavens, let’s not trade away Dan Haren again. I would at least like to wait until I have more secure knowledge of whether we would be doing that.
BA recently reported that Miller’s velocity on his 4-Seam FB on his June 28th start was sitting at 90-93 topped 94-95. I just think hitters are sitting on Millers fastball since he throws 70-80% of the time.
Yeah the loss of velocity is hearsay at this point. AAA hitters know what he’s going to throw because 1. he always throws fastballs and 2. because he always throws fastballs, he has publicly been told that he can’t shake-off his off speed stuff. He’s practicing in AAA, not trying to get results.
Keith Law just released his midseason prospect update today and stated that Miller’s velocity is back up. When Memphis skipped Shelby’s start a couple weeks ago, they found a flaw in his mechanics that may have caused the dip in velocity. I am leary on trading Miller. A 21 year old struggling his first time in AAA isn’t exactly uncommon. Remember, Waino and Lynn also struggled at the same level. The PCL is brutal.
Selling low is rarely a bright idea, and packaging a potentially dirt-cheap, half-a-decade rotation member for a guy like Hamels — who presumably is going to require $20M+ a year to sign — could backfire *almost* as badly as the Mulder Death Trade.
My belief is that the Cards will get Miller’s weight/strength back up over the winter, at which point the old velocity will return, and the success as well.
Overall, I agree 100% with Flush’s remark: Miller will only be, and *should* only be dealt for a very good, and at least relatively cheap starting pitcher. I haven’t taken the time to research the 8-10 teams NOT in playoff contention, so I have no specific pitcher in mind.
Any nominees, guys?
I get the idea of a young cost-controlled SP, but I can’t seem to imagine who that would be. Teams in contention aren’t giving up a MLB ready young SP for a prospect SP. And it seems that teams not in contention are looking for cost-controlled players, not over-priced FAs.
I would really like to see some names. I am game for making the move, but I think it will require expanding the budget. It must not be for a rental. I find it hard to believe that we will pay Hamels/Greinke and Wainwright 20M/year for several years to come.
It seems like it would make sense if a team had a good, young, cost-controlled pitcher that was say three years from free agency, but the team itself was more than three years from contending. You can justify trading for a prospect like Shelby Miller who’s development is more likely to to be in synch with the team’s success.
That seems like a pretty rare set of circumstances though, and I can’t think of any pitchers or trade partners that would meet that very specific set of criteria.
Giving up young, highly-regarded, cost-controlled starting pitchers just doesn’t happen much. WAY too much potential to blow up in your face. Dan Haren, Scott Kazmir, and Adam Wainwright come to mind. I just don’t see the Cardinals including Miller, Martinez, Jenkins, or Rosenthal. Now, I *do* think the Cards might consider moving young position players. Matt Adams could be had. . .Zack Cox was drafted to be traded IMO. . .I don’t think Wong is untouchable either. Tavares isn’t going anywhere, and is Beltran’s heir apparent.
Zack Cox is the least untouchable prospect right now because of the log jam and so much depth at 3B in the organization.
Similar discussion going on in the comments thread at VEB, in which I posted this, which KLaw published today in his midseason top 50. Shelby is 17 over there, btw.
“Miller’s stuff was down early in the year, then the velocity crept back up, but he is still too prone to making mistakes in the zone, getting too much of the plate, especially with the fastball. That adjustment, learning to use his off-speed stuff because he can’t just blow by hitters, is proving to be difficult. Doing it in the Pacific Coast League isn’t easy, either; he has allowed 17 homers in 17 starts this year. He is pitching the entire year at 21 — he is just three months older than 2012 first-round pick Kevin Gausman — so there’s no reason to jump ship yet.”
So according to Law, the velo isn’t down, which would be my only concern about his performance thus far this year. I’m just throwing that out there–I would be totally comfortable trading him for a cost-controlled ace, and I’ve advocated before for that ace to be Felix.
It should also be noted that Law, in his blurb for Julio Teheran, said he may have to lower the overall ceiling for Shelby Miller:
19. Julio Teheran, RHP, Atlanta Braves (age 21)
Current level: Triple-A (Gwinnett)
Preseason ranking: 18
He is similar to Miller — a young starter struggling in Triple-A, especially with the long ball. Teheran throws more strikes and has more feel for his changeup, but Miller has a better breaking ball. It’s possible both guys have lower ceilings than I thought they did a year ago.
I think miller’s Celing is a little lower than everyone thought, I’m not giving up on him or jumping ship but I just don’t see him turning into a #1 starter Dominate ace type. Jenkins and Martinez celing is higher IMO, He still could be a very good pitcher #2 type is more likely i would say though.
I don’t think his ceiling is lower as much as I’d say his floor has gotten lower.
I would give him up for Felix Hernandez, and not much else.
I would not give Miller up for Felix Hernandez. At close to $50M for the next 2.5 years, I don’t think Felix will provide much surplus value (while even a middle-rotation Shelby would provide a lot), and this isn’t even taking in to account injury risk: King Felix’s velocity is down and he has been worked hard at a young age.
The Cards can easily get 10 WAR for $50M in the FA market, and they’d probably be able to mitigate the injury risk better by spreading the money across more players in the FA market.
It very easy to give up on young players. Look at Bob Gipson’s second year In majors. The fans were demanding that he be traded or even released back then. The Cardinals cannot keep trading last year’s best prospect simply because they don’t develop quite as fast as hoped if the cardinals hope to be coompetive in the future.
Keep trading? Who are these best prospects they “keep” trading?
Big Game James Shields is due to make $9M next year, then $12M in 2014.
He’s been cuffed around a bit this year — and almost certainly ridden too hard by Joe Maddon, *especially* coming off a 250+ inning season — but at his best he’s a solid #2 starter for a championship-quality team, and he’s made 33 starts in each of the last 4 years.
Per Fangraphs, Shields’ velocity is as good as it’s ever been, if not better (avg. FB 91.8 this year), but his Uncle Charlie is showing negative run values for the very first time in his substantial career. Seems like a good candidate to bounce back, given the Waino/Carp FB/CB model of pitching success in St. Louis.
If Shelby’s struggles go *much* beyond the physical (i.e., if he’s considered in a meaningful way “difficult” to coach), than I’d trade him straight up for Shields.
Thoughts, folks?
I’d love to have James Shields, but I don’t think a swap is realistic. We’d have to kick in more for that to be reasonable, particularly given the Rays propensity for fleecing trade partners. Granted none of the guys they got were as good as Shelby, but Garza netted 4 prospects, two in the top 50/75.
I’d give up a lot for Shields, but I don’t think it’s realistic. If Miller + Jenkins + Cox gets it done (say) I’d probably be OK with that.
Too much for a guy who’s only touched an ERA+ of 132 one time. You’d really want to gut the pitching side of a top farm system for a #2 pitcher?
Plus, I’m leery if the Rays are willing to give up a pitcher who has been good in the past but is substandard this year. Remember Scott Kazmir?
How is that gutting the pitching part of the farm? Plus that is what the Farm is for anyway can’t get too hung up on prospects because it’s about the MLB team and if they could add a pitcher like Shields that would be gravy. Miller, jenkins, cox may be just a Tad too much, I would replace Jenkins with another pitcher not named martinez, rosie, and it sounds good.
It is indeed about the MLB team, and the combination of Miller + Jenkins + Cox will likely add at least 10 cost-controlled WAR (note that top 10/20 prospects almost alwats contribute at least something at the MLB level) and possibly as much as 30 cost-controlled WAR to the MLB team.
How is getting a #2 pitcher who costs a lot more like Shields worth all that cheap WAR?
If you could trade for Mulder with Haren, Calero, and Barton again, would you do it?
This could all just be added motivation by acting as though they are going to trade him.
Teams want pitching prospects and we don’t really have a lot to offer (that they want) so Shelby is now in the discussion.With all the negative stuff he has had going on in the few short years he’s been with the organization, he needs to make a change so he can improve and move forward.
I feel for the player, he’s 21 and this doesn’t help his mental state.
we don’t have a lot of pitching prospects to offer ? Do you not pay attention to the farm system? Rosenthal, Miller, Jenkins, Martinez, kelly, Lyons, Gast. Thats just naming the starters we have some good relief prospects too
McCellan has season ending surgery!
I feel bad for him. His career is over.
Give me a break!!!
?
Why is that assessment unrealistic? Screwed-up elbow and torn labrum at the same time are a pretty hard combination to bounce back from.
That to. A hang nail and torn labrum at the same time is also a pretty hard combination to bounce back from.
Not sure why this was not discovered when he first went down. Or maybe they knew about it all along….plus he has capsulitis, which is a loose capsule causing irritation.
The organization is pretty vague when discussing what is actually going on.
For those who are not aware, I believe capsulitis the issue with Ottavino, but a series of excercises helped to strengthen that capsule.
Reports are that the capsulitis is the real problem, and the labrum damage is a “frayed” labrum that could have been lived with. The capsulitis allegedly wouldn’t have shown up on an MRI. I’m not a doctor (at least not “that kind of” doctor) and cannot opine credibly on that statement, but there certainly are things that don’t show up on MRI yet can screw up a shoulder. It’s a troublesome joint, and I’ve got the bad shoulders to prove it.
$2.75m well spent.
I have to dispute the article saying “Miller has labored…while Jenkins has advanced.” I like Jenkins long term…but struggle to see how much he has advanced this year compared to Miller.
Yeah, I almost posted the same thing. I’m not sure Miller has advanced much other than added valuable experience, but Jenkins has clearly not returned to full strength from the DL…..Classic prospect writer BS.
In fairness, you have to look at the respective positions. Comming into this season, Miller was already labeled one of the top 2 or 3 pitching prospects….Meaning has only 1 direction to go. Jenkins was on the other end of the spectrum.
So it might simply be a case of one moving up while the other is moving down. They really shouldn’t be compared.
Correct. Jenkins really hasn’t “advanced” much either. Rosenthal, Gast, Maness, C-Mart, etc., now … yeah, they’ve advanced.
Somebody made the point over on VEB that it smells funny for Strauss to be breaking this “news” based on reportage in the Cardinals organization. Surely Mozeliak knows better than to damage his own negotiating position as regards Miller by publicizing the fact (if it is a fact) that the organization doesn’t think as highly of him as they used to. This is a good point, and Strauss has been known in the past to create his own news stories (aka trolling…) when signs are pointing in a particular direction. On the other hand, two things. First, Strauss isn’t the first one suggesting that Shelby’s stock is falling; Law, as quoted above, and I believe Goldstein and some others have started to express doubts as well. Second, Strauss’ sources are not necessarily within the Cardinals organization. Picture this scenario. Two Padres scouts are at the ASG with instructions to see how much swag they can bring back for Huston Street. They know that Mozeliak has been approached by Pads GM Josh Byrnes on a Miller-for-Street deal, and been rebuffed on the grounds that the price is too high (as it is). Then they hear rumblings that the Cardinals are unhappy with the way Miller is progressing at Memphis. Opportunity dawns! They have their own conversation about the Miller-for-Street possibility, playing up the fact that Byrnes had Mo on the phone … and making sure Strauss could hear it, and write a nice little article citing anonymous sources, thereby driving Miller’s trade value down so that trade doesn’t look so lopsided after all …
I think its a shift in philosophy. The cards are not middle of the pack, building with very few assets.
Now they are one of the top dogs, in a winning frame with lots of commodities available to them.
I would make the case thar Miller is available, not from a lack of progression, but rather from an increase in arms available in the system. I think him being available is more about the other arms on the way than it is any dissapointment in Miller.
Good point zuke. With C. Martinez, Rosenthal, Jenkins, and now Wacha lower down the ladder, the cupboard is far from bare. This plethora of arms could very well put Miller in play for the right deal. James Shields, for instance. Still don’t see it, however, and Tim Kurkjian said tonight that he thinks Cards are in play for R. Dempster. Going Dempster diving wouldn’t be cost prohibitive and only cost the Cards a prospect in the 12-15 range IMO.
12-15 range? Really? Dempster is ostensibly having a better year than Hamels. I don’t think the Cubs will accept anything less than a B+ prospect for him. He is one of the hotter commodities on the market at this point, and one that is almost certain to be traded.
Not saying I want to trade Shelby for him. Just saying he is going to demand more than a prospect in the 12-15 range
It will be very interesting to see what trade value the first free agent to be pitcher (e.g. Hammel, Grienke, Dempster etc.) generates.
The first position player (Youkalis) went for scraps. With the changes to free agent draft choice compensation, unless you can resign a potential free agent that you acquire in a trade, then you are truely trading for a 3 month rental.
I am guessing that the prices for anyone below the level of Hammel and Grienke will be much less than you historically would expect.
Pitchers such as Shields and Garza will generate normal value since they have at least another year on their contracts.
This is typical Strauss propaganda.
a better title might be “joe strauss speculates that shelby miller may be available.”
I think it would be foolish to outright dismiss this as Strauss speculation. For one thing, Strauss was a huge fan of Shelby Miller when he was signed and when he saw him in spring training last year. I don’t think he’s had any type of vendetta for the kid.
There doesn’t appear to be much question Miller has struggled this year in his conditioning (though that doesn’t seem to come from lack of effort; just the wrong type), velocity, command, and quality of secondary offerings.
There is also evidence that Miller did not impress in spring training from a mental/competitive standpoint, and that the veterans were more impressed with the competitiveness of Rosenthal and Kelly. My own vibe from some of these reports was that Miller may have had a sense of entitlement, but that is just my own guessing.
These are all negative factors that may be overcome by Miller; the door isn’t closed. But it makes absolute sense that his name would no longer be untouchable. Not to mention the obvious fact that the organization knows the situation 2000% better than anyone on this board or elsewhere could.
For these reasons, I have no trouble believing that Strauss got this info from internal sources.
Dont fall for the trap of thinking that internal sources don’t have biases and agendas or even really know what is going on.
That’s certainly true, but my comment was in support of the idea that the Strauss report was legitimately based on internal sources, not that those sources were 100% truthful or without motive. I never intended to imply otherwise.
I’ve watch 2/3 of his starts on MiLBtv this season, so I’m watching the same thing this organization is watching– where’s the 2000% difference?
The quality of his secondary offerings isn’t the problem– it’s setting the opponent up for them– that is… and that works better with fastball command. When he has FB command— he flat-out dominates.
The only negative factor currently about, Shelby Miller- is his FB command– everything else about him– is complete speculation, period.
Max Foody debuted for Gcl with two shutout innings and two k’s
Shelby who?
No trading Seth Maness!
For me, I’d include Miller (or any of our top 4 guys) in a deal for Felix Hernandez, because he has two (admittedly expensive) years after this one, and is still at his peak (great numbers this year despite a slight decline in velocity). I wouldn’t give any of the top 4 guys to a division rival (so Greinke would be out), and I don’t think Cole Hamels is good enough, frankly, to give up such a promising prospect. I’d do a deal for him around Jenkins or Rosenthal or someone, maybe, but not Miller, CMart, Taveras or Wong (all of whom I think are slightly over-rated, FWIW, and who I would make available for the right player. That player just doesn’t seem to be on the block at the moment, though).
I don’t see Jenkins and Rosenthal as comparable right now.
Felix will cost about $50M over 2.5 years and likely won’t produce more than 10 WAR over that timeframe. You can get 10 WAR for $50M pretty easily in the FA market. Plus, his drop in velocity this year + heavy usage at a young age screams “INJURY RISK” to me. Granted, there is extra value to having an ace in the playoffs, but that is balanced out by the injury risk. Net-net, I believe Felix has hardly any surplus value, so I certainly wouldn’t be willing to give up a top prospect for him.
With regards to James Shield, Felix, & Dempster, I really don’t want to do another Haren (and Calero and Barton) for Mulder type trade.
I understand the thinking about trading with a division rival (which is why I really don’t want to give the Cubs anything, as they have money and Theo will find value, so in 5 years, they will be the Cards’ main competition), but Greinke would be the only pitcher I’d be willing to sacrifice a good chunk of our farm system for to get, and only if we can sign him to a reasonable deal (4-5 years at $15M/year; I think Hamels will demand and get a $100M contract or close to it).
Finally, given our depth and strength in corner power bats in the Majors, I’m much more willing to sacrifice Adams or Cox than any of our young arms.
I wouldn’t even be willing to pillage the farm system for Greinke. One thing that this year should be teaching us is that injuries WILL happen, and there is tremendous value in being able to reach into the farm for guys like Kelly and Adams who are more than just replacement-level band-aids. The farm system is deep enough in starting pitching that a one-for-one trade of a hot pitching prospect for Greinke, with one or two C-level sweeteners thrown in, might be grudgingly acceptable. But even for him, “a good chunk of our farm system” would be too high a price, because too many chunks of the farm system are likely to be needed as major leaguers break down.
Agree wholeheartedly about that deal only being a go if Greinke agrees beforehand to a reasonable contract. This system should not, under any conditions, be gutted just for a rental.
After what happened with Khalil Greene would the Cards really take on another player who has had anxiety issues (grienke)?
Different person. Fear of his anxiety issues will likely drive down what he can get in an FA deal as well. Personally, I think that with Greinke, it’s under control enough to be worth it.
this keeps coming up. greinke has had his depression under control for five or six years. khalil greene was suffering from uncontrolled anxiety and coming off an awful year. greinke has been one of the best pitchers in the majors. greene put up a 62 wRC+ in 2008 with the padres, and a 62 wRC+ in 2009 with the cardinals. he was a gamble that didn’t pay off.
the two players couldn’t be more different. if all the cardinals see are two guys with mental illnesses, then shame on them.
Right. It is something that will receive due diligence before any deal is finalized, as would diabetes, asthma, vision weirdness, etc., none of which would stop a deal (and all of which players have had successful major-league careers while suffering from), but any of which the receiving team would want a plan for addressing. Presumably Mo knows this.
In hindsight the Greene situation is puzzling. I can’t help but feel that the Cardinals got snookered on that deal one way or another, through lack of candor or honesty as to just how bad Greene’s problems were and how difficult they were to treat. At the minimum, it is clear that Greinke’s issues can be dealt with successfully. This “existence proof” casts a possible Greinke trade in an entirely different light, although due diligence will still have to be done.
I think I read that the Brewers are willing and going to offer Grienke 5 years 100 mil. If they are willing to offer him that it’s pretty much a given he’s off the market.