On Middle Infield Prospects
Posted on July 16th, 2012 by azruavatar in analysis, tags: greg garcia, Kolten Wong, Ryan JacksonIt’s not a secret that the Cardinals major league middle infield has been a struggle for them. Last season, they eyed a trade deadline upgrade at shortstop to replace Ryan Therior with Rafael Furcal. This season has seen a revolving door of players at second base including Daniel Descalso, Tyler Greene, Matt Carpenter and Skip Schumaker. All of those players have their own warts at the position and the Cardinals are most likely still on the lookout for a long term answer at second.
The two most touted prospects for the Cardinals middle infield are Kolten Wong in AA and Ryan Jackson in AAA. How are they doing?
| Year | PAs | AVG | OBP | SLG | ISO | BB% | K% | wOBA | wRC+ | |
| Daniel Descalso | 2009 | 324 | 0.323 | 0.396 | 0.531 | 0.208 | 12.7 | 9.6 | 0.416 | 150 |
| Ryan Jackson | 2011 | 599 | 0.278 | 0.334 | 0.415 | 0.137 | 7.3 | 15.2 | 0.333 | 99 |
| Kolten Wong | 2012 | 367 | 0.302 | 0.377 | 0.426 | 0.123 | 9.5 | 11.4 | 0.363 | 126 |
| Greg Garcia | 2012 | 323 | 0.284 | 0.413 | 0.410 | 0.126 | 16.1 | 16.7 | 0.379 | 137 |
It’s easy to forget just how crazy a season Descalso had back in 2009. Something about Hammons Field agreed with Descalso’s swing — the Springfield ballpark is generally kind to lefties — but combined with an elevated BABIP he just went bananas. Seeing him post well below average offensive marks in the majors isn’t entirely surprising after some tepid Memphis campaigns but it does highlight the absurdity of partial season stats in the minors. Prospects are tricksy things and Descalso’s 2009 stands as exhibit A.
Ryan Jackson hovered around average production (100 wRC+ = average) for 2010 and 2011. In Springfield, he hit for a good average, drew a few walks and had a modest power spike relative to some other stops. Jackson, of course, has consistently earned high marks for his polished defense.
In just his second professional season, Kolten Wong is doing little to disrupt the notion that he’s the Cardinals second baseman of the future. His power output is down from 2011 but overall he’s maintained the ability to make consistent contact with the ball. Setting the line next to Descalso’s 2009 should be a reminder for caution as Wong hasn’t exactly blown anyone out of the water.
Which is, I suppose, why I find Greg Garcia’s line so interesting. Playing shortstop opposite Wong’s second base, Garcia has had an unheralded, but very good, season. He’s walking at rates that would make Matt Carpenter proud while showing enough pop in his bat to mollify most expectations of a middle infielder.
Whether the Cardinals will find a long term middle infielder out of these three is questionable and the stat lines above don’t necessarily elucidate their long term projections. Most report still peg Wong as an everyday second baseman, Ryan Jackson as lacking the hitting chops to play regularly and Greg Garcia is largely lost in the shuffle. I’m a sucker for walks and Garcia’s hitting line this year is better than Wong’s in virtually every way possible. That said, I’d still peg Wong as the everyday player of these three.
Plus, he can do back flips.
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Agreed on Wong being the everyday player out of the three middle infield prospects. Jackson, and Garcia could be solid utility options in the near future both are good defensive options as well. I think Greg Garcia’s OBP could get him to the majors.
The nice thing about Wong is he started hitting right out of the gate last year and has continued hitting this year. So he has given us little reason to think he will not be able to hit going forward. What little we have heard about his defense has also been good, and seemly with those two tools alone he is better than anyone we have at the position right now.
To me the real question is is he going to develop any power or does he have enough speed to make an impact with his legs. His 8 caught stealing is not a particularly good sign on the speed front and as you said in the article his power is actually down slightly from last year. So while I still have high hopes for Mr. Wong, I was hoping more for a poor man’s Dustin Pedroia, instead of a rich man’s Skip Schumaker.
Err, Skip’s defense at 2B is atrocious. A rich man’s Dan Descalso, I hope you mean.
While Descalso’s play at 3B last year earned him some gold glove consideration, I don’t think much of his defensive skills at 2B. The only reason we think he is a good defensive 2B is because of all the lousy players who have played there. Good hands/arm, very little range.
Agree some what. Yes, the cards havn’t been good, however I think 2nd base defense is down overall right now.
For instance, many say Rickie Weeks is a good second baseman.
Skip does a good job at second in case you have not seen any St Louis games.
This is laughably untrue and not supported by any objective evidence.
You’d be surprised, AZ. I was, when I went to check your statement out. According to B-R, measured by RF/9, Skippy has actually been better than league average this year. (Measured by RF/game, he’s not.) This isn’t necessarily the disastrous Skippy of three years ago that we’re talking about here.
yes, and measuring his hits in liters indicates that he’s a tanker truck.
come on, range factor? skip is literally the worst second baseman from 2009-2012 in major league baseball by UZR, almost 3 whole wins below average in that time, playing 2888 innings at second. he’s at -31 by DRS for his career at second.
Did you bother to read what I wrote? There is a difference between his 2012 RF/9 and his career RF/9. The 2012 RDF/9 is better. Does that mean he has figured something out? Maybe, maybe not, but people do learn things as they repeat them.
you realize that his RF/9 is (PO*A*9)/innings played? he has a better than career RF because he has 35 PO, 45 A, and has played 126 innings. that gives him a 4.93 RF/9, which is technically better than his career RF/9 at 2B, which is 4.90. if he had one fewer putout, let’s say, he would have a 4.86 R F/9, which would make him BELOW his career number.
please consider sample size when citing these statistics. if your analysis of whether he’s improved or not hinges on a single play, it’s probably not significant.
that’s ignoring the fact that RF appears to have very little to do with defense at all.
Skip has done a good job at not making errors. That is not quite the same as “does a good job”. Skip is also a very good utility roll player. But again, that is not the same thing “does a good job at second”.
If anything, LaRussa and Mathaney did a good job at maximizing his potential with limiting his exposure.
Skip has also worked very hard at the position. As a result, he is not the worst second baseman in the leauge. But that also is not “does a good job at second.”
As it is, Skip is a serviceable situational secondbase man.
skip is, in fact, by several measures the worst second baseman in the major leagues. he is in no sense a “serviceable” situtational secondbaseman.
Despite his horrible defense, he’s probably about a league-average hitter vs RHP, which makes him (probably) something like a 1 WAR-ish 2B over a full season. He shouldn’t ever play there because Descalso’s better, mind you.
Skip’s above average with the bat as a 2B, while Descalso would be below average even for a 2B. Thus, against RHP, I would play a defense/offense platoon, with Descalso out there when gb pitchers Wainwright, Joe Kelly, and Westbrook start & Skippy at 2B when Lohse or Lynn start.
which makes him a situational second baseman…
But with Descalso hitting under .230 and skip over .300, I still put skip out there over descalso. Especially considering Descalso is not a great defender either. Better than skip, but not great.
Even with an extreme ground ball pitcher, its not worth the sacrifice. Forget WAR, it inaccurately inflates defensive variation.
Start skip, use descalso as a Dreplacement if you have a led.
Really the worst? So the measures you mention include ALL part time second baseman as well? And what about Dan Uggla measurables? Why is he not included? Uggla is the worst second baseman in the league…And he is a starter.
And what measures do you use? Fangraphs does not list skip as the worst.
So again, Skip is not the worst second baseman in the league.
Wong isn’t a burner, but runs the bases intelligently and noticably well. Think first to third on a single, and scoring from second on a single, etc. . .. He’s also pretty agressive, which has led to him being thrown out on a couple of occasions where the opposing team correctly guessed he was running. Intangibles are impossible to quantify, and frustrating to hear about for those who don’t get to watch a player live, but he has them in spades, and runs the bases like a much more experienced player. I always thought Rolen ran the bases really well for a guy who wasn’t particularly fast in his late twenties/early thirties. I’d characterize Wong like that. No one should be expecting him to steal a pile of bases with a Beltran-like success rate.
How good is Greg Garcia with the glove?
If he can be average defensively at SS, a .350 OBP in the Bigs, even with virtually no power, would make him a league-average SS.
Garcia is a prototypical type of SS he’s a stocky middle infielder that is fundamentally sound meaning he will make the routine play. He’s actually got pretty decent range just not above average. Answering your question he is slightly above average defender at SS. He’s also a pretty decent hitter with very good plate discipline, and solid hand eye coordination to make solid contact. If he could hit for a little more power than he has a chance to be an every day player.
Well, there are currently 27 SS’s in MLB this year who have amassed 200 or more PA’s. A .350 OBP would be 6th out of those 27, between Jeter and Jed Lowrie. Median SS OBP is about .310. Median SLG is about .383. So so long as Garcia can put up a .350 OBP (admittedly, not an inconsiderable feat for a middle infielder these days), he doesn’t have to put up more than .330 SLG to be average offensively for a starting SS, and a guy who is as good as an average starting SS both offensively and defensively should be an everyday player on all but the handful of teams who have star shortstops.
Garcia isn’t any better than average with the glove at SS. He’s arguably slightly above average at second, but I haven’t seen him much there, so that may be sample size talking. His plate discipline numbers also vary wildly from home to road (again sss). He’s not a noticably patient hitter (although he hits with more power as a lefty bat) at Hammonds field. Sadly I think his home park is already propping up his slugging percentage a bit, but as he has adjusted his game for it, perhaps depressing his walk rate as well (a frightening thought).
I agree that Greg Garcia is probably an average defender at SS and an above average defender at 2B. He bats only from the left-side. His away batting stats are better than his home stats for whatever reason, but his difference in numbers is far less drastic that Wong’s home vs. away numbers. Garcia is a steady ballplayer, seems to do all of the little things right. I believe he has batted in every spot except 3rd, 4th and 5th. If he makes it to STL it will be because he can play SS and 2B and hit a bit. (Thus far, I see Wong as limited to 2B) When discussing the shortstops in the Cardinal sysytem and what they can’t do, I always think of 2006 and winning the World Series with a tools limited David Eckstein!
A .350 OBP with average defense at SS in the majors is way, way better than league average, even with fairly poor SLG.
And I call BS on DT Flush’s suggestion that Garcia is “above average” defensively at SS. I’m a massive Garcia fan and think he’s hugely under-rated, but if he was a good defender at SS he’d be garnerning much more national interest right now, as a guy putting up an age-appropriate 137 wRC+ in AA.
i’ve seen the wong-descalso comp a lot this year. the thing which jumps out to me is that descalso had nothing near his 2009 either before or after his time in AA:
descalso’s wRC+ at palm beach – 90; at batavia – 102; at AAA in 09 – 78; at AAA in 10 – 98
his 150 wRC+ at springfield in 09 stands out (ignoring his 50 PAs the prior season at springfield) as pretty much unprecedented.
by contrast, wong had a 156 wRC+ at QC, and thus far has a 126 at Springfield. while we should definitely take wong’s numbers with a grain of park-adjusted salt, both the stats and the scouting confirm that he’s a much better bet than descalso.
also worth noting is that descalso’s 2009 in springfield came at the age of 22, while wong is 21 now.
Incidently, Greg Garcia was Kolten Wong’s keystone partner at Hawaii for 2 years as well. They were also both in Quad Cities last year, though they may not have overlapped. Would be cool if they formed the Cards’ middle infield combo starting in 2014.
Couple of interesting things about Wong:
First, he’s still one of the top 10-12 hitters in the Texas League, which shows what a down year it is for offense in that league. (Or, conversely, what a great year it is for TL pitching.)
Second, check out his month-by-month OPS:
April: .882
May: .810
June: .793
July: .604
Maybe wearing down a bit?
It does look like he is hitting a wall in the past month. He’s hitting .167 in his past 10 games .229 in July. Still love his hit tool.
I love the idea of a Wong Garcia DP combo in a couple of years too. I’m also very interested to see the guys from a step or two below Springfield develop. Starlin Rodriguez, Tyler Rahmatulla, Matt Williams, Luis Mateo, Breyvic Valera, Alex Mejia and Ildemaro Vargas are all having good years at A-ball or below. Most if not all of these guys won’t pan out but it feels like the Cards, organizationally, are flush with 2B talent with potential at SS as well.
Matt Williams has been an error machine at short in the Midwest League. Rahmatulla has stopped hitting since his elevation to the Florida State League. The others are intriguing, but its early days for them all.
I’ve also heard that the organization will try Starlin Rodriguez in CF so he’s not block by Wong at 2B.
Wow. I would love to have 2B depth before we start moving people to CF. Seems it may be a little early to consider anyone blocked by Kolten Wong. I Included Rahmatulla on the list based on his short season last year and his pre-promotion #’s this year. I think it’s probable that his offensive numbers will pick back up before the end of the year. He absolutely raked at JC and QC. I also included Williams because of his impressive offensive debut last year. My point was not to try to elevate these guys to the status of Wong or Jackson, or even into the lower echelons of prospect-dom, but just to say that I’m really impressed by our middle of the infield depth right now.
I’d easily rather have Jackson’s far superior defense at SS than’s Garcia’s average d and maybe 30 pts high obp
Depends on the make up of the team. I do not want another Brendan Ryan.
Doubt that Jackson will be another Ryan. Jackson is a more steadier defender at SS than what Ryan is. Not entirely sold on his offense yet. If he can be about ML average with the bat while playing his above average defense he could be an everyday player.
I don’t think he projects to be Brendan Ryan. With the bats of Oscar, Wong, Craig, Holliday, Freese, Yadi and Jay or Adams in the lineup, we woud be fine with the superior D. I’d expect Jackson to hit .265-.270 with 5-10 HR pop after a little settling in.
I would be fine with anything over .250. If he is a cezar izturus type that is fine. I just don’w want to have to explain how there isn’t a glove good enough at SS to over come a .220 average and .279 obp.
Brendan Ryan was an example of why WAR doesn’t work for everybody.
why?
i don’t see why what you’re saying is obvious at all. if you believe that brendan ryan is in fact the best defender at shortstop in the major leagues, why wouldn’t you expect that lesser offensive production would be acceptable?
brendan ryan isn’t even the worst-hitting shortstop in the majors right now, with a .254 wOBA. cliff pennington and clint barmes both have worse wOBAs. there are 13 major league shortstops with wOBAs under .280 and at least 150 PAs in the major leagues.
Interesting. I would have said Brendan Ryan is the perfect example for WAR.
Another Brendan Ryan would provide exceptional defense with acceptable offense at a cheap price.
This year, his offensive numbers are pretty bad, but over the past 3 years, Ryan has sported a .310/.338 line, which is not that far below average for an SS these days.
Big and unwarranted assumption that Jackson could get an OBP within 30 points of Garcia.
At Palm Beach, when 1 year older than Garcia at that level, Jackson had an OBP that was 58 points less than Garcia.
At Springfield, when 2 years older than Garcia at that level, Jackson had an OBP that was 72 points less than Garcia.