Without putting them in any specific order, the Cardinals have several top prospects that they could put on the market as the trade deadline approaches. For the pitchers, Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal, Carlos Martinez and Tyrell Jenkins are often regarded as top prospects. Oscar Taveras, Kolten Wong & Matt Adams lead the position players.
The question I have this afternoon is if a player like Cole Hamels or Zack Grienke becomes available who, of the seven prospects I listed above, are off limits?
Think about it before you make the jump where you’ll find my answer.
The answer for me is simple. Shelby Miller, Oscar Taveras and Kolten Wong. I still have a great deal of faith in Shelby Miller for the long term and it’s hard for me to see trading a pitching prospect of that caliber when they are so close to the majors.
Oscar Taveras is, for me, a future core player on the team. I think is defense is chronically underrated (though now most will say he will be a very good right fielder, which is better than the original prognosis) and that the potential exists for him to play centerfield early in his career.
Meanwhile, Kolten Wong may be the answer to a long term problem at second.
Meanwhile, Trevor Rosenthal and Carlos Martinez both look like very good players to me but I’d move them under certain circumstances. Matt Adams looks redundant behind players like Matt Carpenter and Allen Craig. Tyrell Jenkins remains too far removed from the majors for me to be significantly concerned with trading him. There’s too much development and uncertainty there to deem him untouchable.
So there you go – Miller, Taveras & Wong are off the board. Agree? Disagree?
Entries (RSS)
I’d only be comfortable trading Wong and Adams (though Wong only if we get an ace in return who’s agreeable to a reasonable longer-term deal).
The problem with all of the pitchers is that, while it’s likely that only 1-2 will pan out, all of them have high ceilings, and I don’t want to trade away an All-Star pitcher. Plus, the parent club will need pitching.
I really don’t consider anybody to be “untouchable”. But on my least likely to move list I would put shelby miller and Trevor Rosenthal.
I have them on my list because I believe the rest of baseball undervalues them, so you could not get what they are truly worth. Shelby because of the year he is having, Rosenthal because he was a late pick JUCO player (which carries a bias wtih it).
I have no problems dealing Wong. Yes, he can be a solution at second. But as the cards have proven over the last 15 years, second base is not a key need.
Funny how you say the Cards have proven that 2B is not a key need, whiled I would say they have proven that it is.
Honestly going after a big Ace doesn’t make sense. We won’t be able to resign Hamels as he seems to want to explore his market. Grienke is already going to be offered 5 years 100 mil and we won’t match that. Although the pitching may wear down right now its outstanding and is not hte reason we are playing so badly. That belongs to a feast or famine offense and bad middle relief.
There is one negative to our improbable WS push last year. It may make MO think that no matter what we are in it and to mortage a future for the chance/hope that we get hot at the right time and that leads us to the playoffs again.
Just as easily as us getting hot and winning Furcal and Beltran could get hurt and our season would be close to over. Both are close to playing more games than they have anytime in the last 4 or 5 years. We aren’t sure what if anything Berkman still has as he is just looking old at this point. A great many of our players are showing fatigue. The only player I feel confident in him ending as strong as he’s started in Yadi.
Oscar’s the only guy I would be hesitant to trade for almost* anyone. *The exceptions would be guys that would never get traded because they are awesome and young and/or have reasonable contracts (Trout, Strasburg, etc.). Miller has shown he’s not perfect and while Wong looks like he could be a good one, he’s unspectacular. Oscar, though, he has MVP potential.
I wouldn’t make a move. Our pitching is just fine. We’re not getting the timely hit right noe but all teams go thru that at one time or the other during the season. We could use one more long man in the bull pen but we can probably fix that off our roster.
Tavares and Miller are the only untouchables for me. Both have the potential to be cornerstone players, cost controlled, for years to come. C. Martinez and Wong are touchable to me, but it would have to be a significant deal for a major leaguer willing to sign a long-term deal in St. Louis. . .Hamels, Greinke, F. Hernandez all come to mind. Rosenthal, Adams, Jenkins, and Cox all carry enough question marks for me that I would move any in a semi-major deal. . .Dempster, Garza and Bourjois come to mind. I really like what I’m seeing out of A. Garcia, so I hope to keep him in the system. I can see he and Taveras being bookends in the St. L outfield in about 3 years.
So you’re saying that our Wong is touchable?
I regularly overvalue prospects–so I don’t want to trade any of them. If I had to pick two players to trade from that list, it would be Carlos Martinez and Matt Adams.
Martinez–b/c he’s undersized and will likely end up in the bullpen. He’s valuable in the same way Eduardo Sanchez is–but he’s also already struggled with durability. I think he’s a high upside guy w/ bust potential. I’d part w/ him in the right deal.
The other guy I’d consider dealing is Matt Adams. Really nice bat. But is it really that hard to find someone w/ a nice bat to play first base? I mean–it’s tough to find an Albert Pujols type–but it isn’t tough to find a .360 OBP and .440 SLG to play first base. I don’t think Adams walks enough to be a great player. I’d also be worried about his long-term defense.
Like I said–I don’t want to part w/ anyone on the list. Taveras should be truly untouchable, b/c he has the potential to actually be a star. I like Wong’s ability to fill our 2B needs and be above league average for several years (something we haven’t had in a long time). I also wouldn’t sell low on Miller–he’s 21 and at AAA. Most 21 year olds are just hitting pro ball and playing in A. All young pitchers go through struggles. He may not be an ace–but I’d bet on him becoming part of a major league rotation. Too much talent to give up on. Command of his breaking stuff is likely to improve.
need help, going to stlouis in october tell top BBQ places in the area.
Bogarts and Pappy’s, IMHO.
Be warned, though, during normal dining times (lunch, dinner, & weekends), these 2 places have lines out the door.
BTW, at Bogarts, I’d get the prime rib; no BBQ sauce; it’s terrific with horse radish.
ty
Count me in as a guy who doesn’t consider anyone to be untouchable. That being said, the players I consider to be of the highest value are Taveras, Miller, and Martinez–with Taveras being the most valuable.
On the prospects:
Oscar Taveras – simply put, we don’t have a hitter in our system that appears to be in the same elite class as him. Considering that we have a truckload of money invested in Matt Holliday, having Jay and Taveras to complete our outfield makes salaries much more manageable, not to mention a very strong outfield.
Shelby Miller – yes, he is struggling badly right now. But Bernie made a great point about Miller’s struggles and value on his radio show. Bernie talked about how Adam Wainwright didn’t put up great numbers at AAA. Can you imagine what our team would be like if we didn’t stick with Adam? I think we need to give Shelby some time to learn more about the art of pitching.
Carlos Martinez – I really think C-Mart has a great chance to dominate at the major league level. Given his frame, he may never have the ability to throw a full major league season as a starter; but there’s also a chance that he’ll grow stronger with a healthier diet than what he got growing up. We all know he has great stuff right now. He’s got an elite fastball, a plus changeup, and a decent, developing breaking ball. As far as I’m concerned, he could become one of the best closers in the game if he doesn’t pan out as a starter. It’d be hard for me to trade away that kind of a player.
There is no such thing as an untouchable, period. There are only very steep prices to touch.
If, for some crazy reason (think Gussie Busch and Steve Carlton if you don’t think “crazy reasons” happen in real life…), Washington came around peddling Stephen Strasburg, and my medical people were convinced after rigorous physical examination that he’d be okay going forward, I’d have no trouble offering BOTH Miller and Taveras for him. He’s that good, and that rare a find. Obviously that isn’t going to happen, and it would be mistaken to predicate a trade strategy on the possibility of something like that coming up. But I’d do it in a flash.
More realistically, Taveras is the one guy that I see as untouchable in any realistic trade scenario. Based on what I know, and acknowledging that there are significant parts of the picture that I may not have, the next tier is Wong, C-Mart, Rosenthal and probably Miller (although he could be either up or down one level based on those “significant parts of the picture” that I don’t have), any of whom would be available only for a real knockout deal, but for whom I could imagine real, realistic knockout deals being made — for one of them. Packaging more than one to get a Hamels or a King Felix would be unacceptable.
As much as I’d like to see Adams make it, I’m not sure he will, and Craig can play first and hit a ton if he’s healthy. Jenkins is too far from the Show for me to be concerned about trading him, despite his ultra-high ceiling. Cox … nah.
Sleeper keeper: Ryan Jackson, because there is so little coming up behind him at shortstop. He is clearly not remotely the player that any of those other guys are, and there are several others in the organization who are intrinsically better prospects. But I don’t want to be put in a position where if Furcal suffers a career-ending injury, Tyler Greene or Peter Kozma (horrors!) are the internal answers at short. I would only trade Jackson as part of a package to get somebody really, really good, way better than what someone of Jackson’s potential would normally attract.
1. I wouldn’t include OT in a package for Strasburg. You can’t convince me that any pitcher, especially a young pitcher, has no injury risk. If it was for Mike Trout or Bryce Harper, I’d agree, though.
2. I don’t see why you think Ryan Jackson is so much more of an upgrade over Tyler Greene. In fact, unless Ryan Jackson’s defense is as good as Boog Ryan’s, I think Greg Garcia will produce more value at the next level.
“No” injury risk? No. Then again, it is not the case that OT has “no” risk of flaming out before arrival in St. Louis. There are fewer than five pitchers in all of baseball that I’d move both OT and Miller for. If ABSOLUTELY healthy, and accepting that absolute health still doesn’t translate to zero injury risk, Strasburg is one of them.
As for the why of Jackson>Greene, the answer is very simple: .221/.282/.368. That’s Greene’s line for this year, and it’s entirely consistent with what he has been in past years. He is simply not very good, and that is not a very high bar for Jackson to reach and exceed in the majors. Furthermore, Jackson is going to improve. Greene is not.
Tyler Greene’s lines at each level and age:
Quad Cities (22): .287/.375/.552
Palm Beach (22): .224 /.308/.325
Springfield (23): .244/.309/.448
Memphis (24): .234/.325/.297
Ryan Jackson’s lines at each level and age:
Quad Cities (22): .272 /.366/.348
Palm Beach (22): .291 /.342/.392
Springfield (23): .278/.334/.415
Memphis (24): .271/.339/.391
Ryan Jackson is more consistent, and I think we can agree that Tyler Greene isn’t better than replacement level, but I see little to suggest that Ryan Jackson will be significantly better than Tyler Greene, at least with the bat.
In any case, I believe Greg Garcia will be better than Jackson (definitely a better hitter), so it’s erroneous to say that there’s “so little” behind Jackson at SS.
i’m liking alex mejia currently. think about him in that mix :)
Mejia is VERY far from the majors. Still way too early to tell what his chances of getting there are.
If you’re really trying to argue that those lines don’t portend a significant upgrade by Jackson over Greene, there’s not really much I can say, other than to shake my head sadly.
As for Greg Garcia, there’s a chance he could become the Furcal replacement, but he’s a year or two farther away than Jackson, and I’m not yet convinced he can stick at SS (lots of errors, although he does seem to have adequate range). Jackson very obviously can.
You know, I could shake my head sadly too. If you have something to buttress your side of the argument, put it out there. Saying “you obviously just don’t understand” is a tactic used by HS kids who either can’t fashion a cogent argument or don’t have one.
In this case it is being used by a 59-year-old Ph.D. who is tired of trying to reason with the unreasoning.
Which is actually even worse; I’d expect you to be able to put together a logical argument rather than calling people names.
Speaking of errors at SS here are the full season team numbers as of this morning:
Ryan Jackson – Memphis
139 POs + 203 Assists = 342 chances …. 11 errors
Greg Garcia – Springfield
104 POs + 292 Assists = 396 chances ….15 errors
Ronnie Gil – Palm Beach
111 POs + 240 Assists = 351 chances …. 29 errors
Matt Williams – Quad Cities
148 POs + 302 Assists = 450 chances …. 27 errors
Not to mention that errors are a poor way to measure defense.
It seems that Jackson and Garcia have played roughly the same number of games at SS (unfortunately, BR doesn’t break down how many innings at a position for minor leaguers), yet Garcia has significantly more assists. Is there a difference in the gb/fb composition between AAA and AA? Otherwise, where does Jackson’s reputation for being much better defensively than Garcia come from?
If considering “errors made” is a poor way to measure defense then I learned something new today! I always thought “errors made” would be one of the several factors in measuring ones defensive abilities.
I guess it is possible that Jackson’s long and lanky shortstop’s body (6-3 180#) could give someone the impression that he is a high level defender as he looks the part. Plus, Greg Garcia (6-0 175#) lacks the flash in his play, but he has been quietly effective both offensively and defensively.
Errors should be one of several factors, though a relatively minor one, simply because the difference is generally not that big between players. Range should be a much bigger factor as the difference between a SS with a lot of range, one with average range, and one with little range is much bigger.
. . . bigger in turning batted balls in to outs, I should say.
has anyone taken a hard look at the CardinAls lately? They are at best a .500 club with great dependance on an aging often injured core. Does anyone expect furcol, Beckmann, and Beltran to maintain their performance level for the remainder of 2012, let alone 2013. And how many of our starters will be effective or resigned for 2013? The Cardinals should be adding and not subtracting prospects.
our? can’t get furcal or berkman’s name right. not to mention not knowing BERKMAN will not be back next year or know the situation of the starters next yr.
plz dont troll us on our minor league board.
to answer about hard looks, they are not at best a .500 club. more like at worst, which is whats going on right now…mainly due to the bullpen.
shelby taveras and carlos martinez are untouchable to me
every1 else is fair game
untouchable to me are wong, tavaras, craig (yea not mentioned here but you know teams ask), martinez, and rosenthal. i havent lost faith in miller, i just know he’d be a very valuable chip in the right package (think king felix or the like) and that as great as he could be, all the other up and coming starter prospects could have him covered.
btw, got an idea for a next article. a reverse of this one. most valuable trade chips not counting untouchables.
This “touchables” article is happening this morning at VEB.
For me Tavaras, Martinez should be held onto. Hate to miss out on Wong’s backflips but sounds like Greg Garcia is a good second sacker. It really depends on the pitching that the Cards get in return, I’d like to keep Miller if possible but Adams,
Miller and Wong for King Felix? (and throw ins) I’d take the risk on Hernandez. Dempster,Greinke are rentals and should get less in return.
King Felix scares me. The innings he has put on his arm is great. Plus I believe he will be getting 20 plus million a year. I could see a lincecum like season from him in the future. I would be tempted in a one for one trade (rosenthal, adams, or wong) or maybe a cox and Jenkins for him, but nothing more. Contract is not that great of a value.
Forgot to mention his decreasing velocity trend.
I agree, Kevin.
A decreased velocity, heavy usage from a young age, stats inflated by that offense-killing park he calls home, and a contract that pays a 4-WAR pitcher $20M/year means I’m loathe to trade anyone but one of Matt Adams or Tyrell Jenkins for him.
Oh, definitely Cox as well (I guess he isn’t a top prospect any more)?
King Felix is doing alright with his decreasing velocity, 25% so, 1.17 whip and 2.78 fip. Legitimate and proven #1. Those don’t grow on most farm trees.
I think everyone here knows that. The decreased velocity is more a concern that it’s a harbinger of injury (especially given his heavy usage from a young age).
Could be, but we don’t know the answer to that question. It is just as likely that Miller, Rosie or C-Mart’s elbow or shoulder blows up. My point is Felix is a known quantity and value is inherent in the same.
A known 4 WAR pitcher making 20M/year. Not a lot of surplus value there.
You keep throwing this “4 WAR” thing out there, Richard. Hernandez has put up an average of greater than 6 WAR/yr for the past three seasons, and is ALREADY at 4 WAR this year, after only 20 starts. And he’ll be moving to a league where he’ll be throwing at opposition pitchers, instead of DHs. And SAFECO doesn’t suppress power that much more than Busch (certainly not enough to overcome the DH adjustment).
I get it that you don’t rate him and you don’t think there’s much surplus value in $20m, that’s fine. I just don’t think the “4 WAR” thing is close to factually accurate. Felix is legitimately one of the 4 or 5 best pitchers in baseball.
1. Baseball Reference has Felix’s WAR at 2.7 this year so far and 3.4 last year. Other than 2009 & 2010, he’s actually been 4 WAR or less every year, according to BR.
2.
“And he’ll be moving to a league where he’ll be throwing at opposition pitchers, instead of DHs.”
Should not matter with a relative measure like WAR. WAR is not ERA. There’s no reason to expect a replacement-level pitcher in the AL to be better than a replacement-level pitcher in the NL or vice versa.
3.
“And SAFECO doesn’t suppress power that much more than Busch”
What do you consider “power”? Compared to Busch, in 2012, Safeco substantially depresses homers. And doubles. And triples: http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor
The Mariners score the least runs at home of any AL team. They score the _most_ runs away from home of any AL team.
4.
“Felix is legitimately one of the 4 or 5 best pitchers in baseball.”
In 2012, Felix is currently 17th in bWAR. In 2011, Felix was 28th in bWAR. In 2010, Felix was 3rd in bWAR. In 2009, Felix was 13th in bWAR.
Outside of 2010, Felix has never been one of the 5 best pitchers in baseball, according to BR.
Even by fWAR, Felix has never been in the top 4 any year besides this year (so far), though granted, he was close in 2009 & 2010.
$20 million is a scary big contract and agree that isn’t a great long term value.
One for one wouldn’t do it.
The contract puts me off more than the innings he has pitched. For decreased velocity he has a decent strikeout to walk ratio. His average numbers aren’t as good away as they are at home. Busch III wouldn’t inflate his home numbers that much.
As ar as Your comments on Adams…..do I see him as untouchable? no but for you to say he is redundant is silly.
That start tonight should resolve a certain amount of Miller angst, and maybe move him up half a notch in the untouchable conversations. He’s looking “right” again.
>>Matt Adams looks redundant behind players like Matt Carpenter and Allen Craig.<<
I don't know if I would go that far as Oscar Taveras factors into the question. Beltran is still under contract next season but we shouldn't let a one year window color our long term thinking. OT will almost assuredly be ready by 2013 but, right now, he is playing CF. Jay is struggling at the plate. Even if OT is not going to be an everyday CF'er long term could he be relied upon for 80 starts in CF for the first few seasons? On days when Oscar is in center, our 2014 lineup could look like this.
Wong 4
Taveras 8
Holliday 7
Craig 9
Adams 3
Freese 5
Molina 2
P
Bench–Cruz, MCarp, Jay, Descalso, Robinson. ** probably need another right handed bench bat.
If Oscar could play 80 games in CF, I think you could easily find 100 starts for Adams @ 1B. Craig has never played more than 129 games in a season as a professional. Beyond that, even when he does not go on the DL he is battling a quad issue or some other nagging injury. He may have pulled a quad running to 1st tonight. Craig has said he thinks playing OF is less taxing on his body … according to Al H. Also Jay has had trouble staying healthy. Do we really have a better option in CF than OT when Jay can't go?
Anyway, I'd hate to trade away Adams and turns into a 30 HR / 100 rbi guy, which could very well be the case. Long term OT probably is not going to be making 80 starts in CF but one or two years of this arrangement buys the organization time to evaluate their roster. It very difficult to project at this point. Question-marks still surround John Jay. Can Craig stay healthy? What exactly is Adams' upside?
I just don't think Matt Adams is going to return enough in trade right now to let him go under the theory that he is redundant. The situation with Adams is different than the one with Cox IMHO. We will have trouble finding room for Cox on the 25 man roster much less getting the guy starts because he is third on the depth chart at the only position he plays and he brings nothing to the table we don't already have in the players ahead of him. Adams might be best power bat prospect this organization has turned out since Albert Pujols. It's possible Adams will turn into a better power bat than Allen Craig. We can juggle and make room for Adams until we find out what we have. That's the route I would go unless we got something very valuable in return for Adams, which I doubt will happen.
Forgot a SS.
Wong 4
Taveras 8
Holliday 7
Craig 9
Adams 3
Freese 5
Molina 2
Jackson 6
P
Unless Jackson’s glove is stellar, I’d choose Greg Garcia over Ryan Jackson at SS.
“It’s possible Adams will turn into a better power bat than Allen Craig.”
Uh, what? You do realize that Craig is currently amongst the top 15 hitters in all of baseball, I presume? So yes, it’s possible, but that’s a pretty high bar.
I’d pencil Matt Adams in over MCarp when he can prove that he can hit better than MCarp. Personally, I’ll a little leery of the future success of guys who walk at the rates that Matt Adams does.
You have compared the minor league numbers of both Craig and Adams, right? Then look at Craig’s 2010 MLB debut versus that of Adams in 2012. Very similar.
>>You do realize that Craig is currently amongst the top 15 hitters in all of baseball<<
You do realize Craig has had 227 PA this season? I hope Allen stays healthy and keeps hitting at this pace but I'm not banking on it. These are Allen's numbers for July: .246 / .295 / .509. Will he get hot again as he was in May? I hope so. In any event, I'm not arguing Adams will be a better MLP power hitter than Craig only that he COULD BE. The potential is there. Also, we really don't yet know exactly what we have in Craig due to the fact that he has less than 600 MLB AB's spread over three seasons.
I think we know far more than we do Adams (who isn’t MLB starter-quality now, and won’t be, unless he stops chasing balls outside the zone and fixes holes in his swing).
It’s also a little disingenuous to argue that Craig’s performance over 227 (or 600) PA is too small to reflect his true ability and then use 61 PA of data as an argument against him. I mean, if you want me to be ridiculous as well, Craig is hitting .313/.389/.500 over the last 7 days, so that means he’s elite after all.
>>It’s also a little disingenuous to argue that Craig’s performance over 227 (or 600) PA is too small to reflect his true ability and then use 61 PA of data as an argument against him. <<
No, it's not disingenuous at all. The argument made is not that we know Craig to be a lesser hitter. The argument is that we don't have enough data to draw a strong conclusion on exactly his top end potential. Too small of a sample size. Anecdotal evidence suggests he may be regressing …. but small sample so we have to wait and see how it plays out. That was exactly the point made above. We need more data on Craig.
Allen must read futureredbirds. If he hits 2 doubles off the bench every time I question his upside … . We bow to you Mr. Craig.
Regression to the mean.
1. I don’t believe anybody is untouchable. 2. I don’t see trading any of the guys you mentioned for any rental pitcher. 3. This team would be a lot better with Colby Rasmus and Chris Perez. 4. The Rasmus deal isn’t what got us into the playoffs, give that credit to Hawksworth->Furcal.
we dont make the playoffs without edwin jackson
11-13 from Rasmus trade until Furcal trade. 23-12 afterward. Jackson was pretty good, but all the pitchers improved after Furcal took over at short. Can’t overstate how abysmal Theriot was at short – below replacement level.
We traded Alex Castellanos for Furcal. Hawksworth was traded to LAD prior to the start of the season for our oh-so-excellent pre-Furcal shortstop, Ryan “no-glove” Theriot.
Yeah miller and Wong would not get you Felix Hernandez. I don’t think any prospect should be untouchable in the right deal
Garcia is comparable to Jackson defensively the way David Eckstein is comparable to Brendan Ryan. They may end up with similar fielding %’s but they aren’t similar defensively.
As far as prospects go, I don’t want to trade any of them for Felix, Greinke, or Hamels. I look at the contracts or expected contracts and think … would I sign any of them as free agents for that, and the answer at 20 mil per for any of the 3, is no. Not just no, but a resounding NO. So, at the expected salary, I don’t even want them if it cost me 0 prospects, so high salary plus prospects is a hard no.
I wouldn’t trade any of the pitchers as the fact that pitchers like these 3 make 20 mil a year tells me you have to grow your own, so that’s precisely what I’d do.
Of our top 4 position players plus Craig (since his name always seems to get brought up) I could see trading Cox as he isn’t a stalwart defensively at 3rd, and doesn’t hit with the power to play 1b.
Adam’s I sit on unless someone knocks my socks off, and I doubt that is going to happen
Oscar stays put and there might not be 10 players in baseball I trade him for. Not because I’m sure he’s going to be a top 10 player (though he might) but because he will hit and hit damn well for cheap for quite a few years.
Wong also stays put as he will also give us an above average 2b man for cheap.
I’m very much in line with the Cards growing through their farm system, even if it means trying to work this years major league problems out through the farm system or by just adding a bullpen piece or 2 that won’t cost much.
I think the big Cards are about to turn the corner anyway. Hitting goes in cycles and they are at the bottom it will turn around, history and the talent on the roster say it will. The starters have been fine … and a couple of the bullpen pitchers that have cost us in the last couple of months such as Scrabble and Salas look to be turning a corner.
I agree that the Card’s current plan of building through the farm system to sustain annual runs at 90 wins & the playoffs by getting 22-28 WAR from $30-$35MM worth of cost-controlled players (which seems to have been put in place since DeWitt went with Mozeliak as GM & Luhnow as draft director) is a good one. It means you’d have to get about 20 WAR from the open market with $80M, which is definitely doable, and also that you can afford the risk of signing age/injury risks like Beltran/Berkman/Carp to reasonable short-term contracts.
Thankfully, TLR isn’t around to run off players any more. I once took a look at all of Mo’s trades, and over half were of guys TLR couldn’t get along with.
Furcal was not traded for Hawksworth; that was Ryan Theriot. The Cardinals got Furcal for Alex Castellanos, who played briefly for the Dodgers this year and now is hitting around .360 for their Triple A affiliate.
I think everyone is going to be suprised that the trade value of players that are going to be free agents at the end of this season is going to be way down as a result of not be able to receive free agent compensation for such free agents. It was just reported today that the Dodgers don’t want to give up the quality the Cubs are seeking for Dempster because he is a two month rental.
Just this week Mozeliak was quoted as saying that under the new compensation rules he probably would not have given up as much as he did to trade for Holliday. Rasmus, because of his problems with TLR, might still have been traded under the new rules, but maybe not. The trade made sense for the Cards because of the draft choice compensation they would get when Jackson and Dotel signed elsewhere.
While Hamels and Greinke sound nice, I will be suprised if either are traded…and again remember all you are getting is two plus months of pitching.
I would prefer getting someone of the quality of Felix Hernandez (not at all likely) or Garza (doubt the Cubs and Cards really want to make a big trade with each other) or Vargas (SEAT) (very possible, but he is not so good outside of pitching in Seattle). Those guys bring at least one more season of value). I can’t think of any others that they could get who are any good and who are not free agents at the end of the season.
Thus in a long round about way, I am suggesting that none of the top prospects discussed should be traded unless you would get Hernandez (I understand why some above might oppose that) or Garza (again not likely between the Cubs and Cards). Trading lower level of prospects for guys like Dempster, Maholm (has an option), McCarthy (if healthy) or Anibal Sanchez for two months is what I would then prefer.
I was going to mention someone like Brett Meyers Houston who could get stretched out to start, but I see he just got traded to the White Sox.
As I suggested above the White Sox gave up two low level prospects for Meyers and got Youkalis a few weeks ago for virtually nothing. In both cases the Red Sox and Astros gave the White Sox alot of money to help pay the contracts for Youkalis and Meyers.
Mozeliak said today he intended to be active, suggesting relievers instead of starters. We’ll see which direction they ultimately try to go, but I don’t think they should have to give up much unless they get someone with a contract beyond this season.
OT is the only true untouchable to me. I would hold very tightly to Adams, Miller, Rosie, and CMart
Wong and Jenkins are the most expendable IMO….
Of course, I prefer we keep them all.
The only player on this list I’d even consider trading right now is Matt Adams. With Craig, Berkman, and M. Carpenter on the big league roster he’s expendable in the right deal, even if it’s only for a rental. I really wouldn’t give up on any of the pitching prospects at this point. There’s far too much arm talent in this system, and StL is gonna need an infusion of youth sooner rather than later.
Okay but what about rzep and Dotel? Both were HUGE pickups for our bullpen last year. Our bullpen was in major disarray before they came. Plus in the playoffs tlr used the bullpen so much, there is no way we win it all with Trevor miller as out loogy. Furcal was very important but the Rasmus trade was more crucial IMO
You can’t really separate the two trades. Without Furcal we don’t make the WS either. Both trades absolutely necessary to the final success of the team.