With the trading deadline a few days away, let’s take a look at what prospects the buyers are handing over to get their new major league players and where those players compare to the Cardinals prospects we know and love.
Miami acquired RHP Nathan Eovaldi and RHP Scott McGough from the Los Angeles Dodgers for 3B Hanley Ramirez and LHP Randy Choate.
Per Baseball Prospectus: Nathan Eovaldi, who’s bounced between Double-A and the majors over the past two seasons without managing to establish himself as a starting pitcher. He’s a young, cost-controlled pitcher the Marlins can use to fill out the back of their rotation, but right now he doesn’t look like much more than that.
Cardinal analogous player: Joe Kelly.
BP Again: A fifth-round pick in 2011, McGough is an intriguing relief prospect who still has plenty to work on. At six feet tall and with a slight build, he’s on the small side, but he has an incredibly fast arm capable of firing 93-95-mph fastballs that touch 97.
Cardinal analogous player: Sam Gaviglio (not the same type pitcher, but was the Cardinals 2011 5th rounder.)
Diamondbacks acquired UTL-R Tyler Bortnick from the Rays for UTL-R Ryan Roberts.
Via Baseball Prospectus: (Bortnick) now at 25, he’s hitting .253/.352/.385 in 95 Double-A games. Bortnick has an excellent approach, some contact skills and a bit of speed, but he’s limited to the right side defensively.
Cardinal analogous player: Chris Swauger
Houston acquired OF-S Robbie Grossman, LHP Rudy Owens, and LHP Colton Cain from the Pirates for LHP Wandy Rodriguez
Per BP: Owens is the most big league ready of the trio, and will likely see time in Houston this year. The 24-year-old lefty had to overcome the stigma of being a 24th-round pick, but he’s found success at every level and won over scouts as a potential back-of-the-rotation piece.
Cardinal analogous player: Tyler Lyons or John Gast.
BP: An 8th-round pick in 2009 who received a seven-figure bonus, Cain is the upside play in the group, as his 4.20 ERA at High-A Bradenton, with 51 strikeouts in 75 innings, don’t cover his potential.
Cardinal analogous player: Scott Schneider (?) EDIT: He was released yesterday.
BP: Grossman … hit .294/.418/.451 at High-A Bradenton while leading the minor leagues with 104 walks. That was enough to make him the no. 6 prospect in the system entering the year, but scouts had mixed reviews of him due to some questions about his power potential, and the ability to stay up the middle.
Cardinal analogous player: James Ramsey (?) – Obviously untradeable due to being drafted this year, but that’s the best comp I can come up with in the Cardinals system. Other: Adron Chambers – Too old and too high level to be a true comp, but fairly close.
I’ll look at a few more trades tomorrow and their Cardinal similar players, but for now, do you agree with the comparisons and would you make any of the below trades?
Hanley Ramirez and Randy Choate for Joe Kelly and Sam Samuel Gaviglio.
Ryan Roberts for Chris Swauger.
Wandy Rodriguez for Tyler Lyons, Scott Schneider and James Ramsey.
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I would have done the Hanley deal in a heartbeat. I brought this up over at VEB and most seemed to disagree with me, but I still think Hanley has a very bright future. He’s still only 28, and just 18 months (and only around 180 games) removed from being one of the most untouchable players in all of baseball. In that stretch that’s seen his value drop so precipitously he’s had a BABIP 60 points lower than his career average (and, for that matter, 20 points lower than league average) despite seeing very similar batted ball profiles. Some people brought up the idea that his shoulder surgery may have sapped his power, but he’s posted an admirable .180 ISO this year (despite his home ballpark suppressing homers — his HR/FB is considerably higher on the road) and the meh power production he showed last year was BEFORE his surgery.
I think the Dodgers are going to end up looking like geniuses for getting Hanley for spare parts (and not to mention Choate, who is very valuable in his own right).
Colton Cain is no Scott Schneider. By the way Schneider has been released by the Cards.
I know that Mark Buerhle speculation is always annoying….but….what would it take?
He is still in his prime (33) and durable. He is battle tested. His 2013 salary is reasonable. 2014-15 gets steep.
How about Buerhle and Bonifacio for Joe Kelly, Dan Descalso, and a mid grade prospect?
I wouldn’t touch the Ramirez deal with a ten-foot pole, but would be quite tempted by the Wandy one, with Chambers rather than Ramsey — I like and respect Chambers, but he’s never going to be much more than what he is. The Roberts trade is entirely satisfactory in terms of asking price, but I’m not sure I see Roberts as an upgrade on Tyler Greene, and he’s older and would be less of a trade chip later.
Scott Schneider was just released for being terrible. He’s not a comp for Cain?
Adron Chambers for Robbie Grossman? Good god, no. Grossman is a B-level prospect (was #118 in all of baseball preseason according to Sickels); Chambers is C-level organzational filler. Zack Cox would be a better comp for Grossman (was also a B-level prospect and #115 on Sickels’ pre-season top 120 list).
Tyler Bortnick is a C+ level prospect – ranked something like 15-18 in the Rays’ organization. A better comp would a be C+ level prospect in the Cards’ organziation – like Ryan Jackson or Greg Garcia. Someone like Pete Kozma would be closer than Swauger.
Comps:
Hanley Ramirez (and his $38mm contract obligation) + Choate for Trevor Rosenthal (or Tyrell Jenkins) + Keith Butler.
Ryan Roberts for Greg Garcia or Ryan Jackson
Wandy Rodriguez for Zack Cox, John Gast, + Kevin Siegrist.
These are much better, but I think Gast is still too low for Owens. Maybe a healthy Swagerty, or Mansess?
Owens is a C+ prospect to me – back of the rotation lefty who is ML ready. Gast might have slightly higher upside but is less ML ready so I think it’s fair. A healthy Swagerty (IMO) is a B prospect and more valuable than Owens. Maness is probably a good comp (C+/B-, but further away than Owens).
I think you’re confusing the Grossman that everyone was hoping for with the Grossman that is. It might have been handy if Jeff had given the rest of that BP quote on him: His AA line for this year is unimpressive (.266/.378/.406) with few signs that the power is going to come, and Goldstein seeing him (or reporting scouts seeing him) as a future corner outfielder. Caveated with the statement that he’s been doing better in the second half of the AA season. Department of What Might Have Been: a better comparison for him than either Ramsey or Chambers might be 2010-vintage Daryl Jones.
Grossman is recovering from a hamate bone break in November so the recent numbers are more relevant.
Actually, I don’t even like Grossman as a player tha much (he’s a high-OBP tweener OF to me) but Adron Chambers is just a terrible, terrible comp. Whether Ramsey is a good player comp is yet to be seen, but the point is to assess a similar value of player in the Cards system. In that vein, Cox is very close.
I didn’t want to quote the whole article since it is subscriber content (I believe) – so I only stuck with the one part of it.
Fair point, bc. I was focused too much on the type of player and not the caliber there. That one was a tough one.
Just a reminder….
If and when a trade happens….Remember the stuff you post on here will stay on here.
I recommend looking at the moves that were made rationally. How many people look like idiots now:
http://www.futureredbirds.net/2011/07/27/rasmus-traded/#comments
So in other words…be smart. Be civil. Leave out any personal bias.
I don’t think trading for a starter will be a good use of resources.
I agree if we have to give up a very promising top 5 prospect who is cost controlled like Miller or Rosenthal to get a starter like Josh Johnson. What if it takes Seth Maness, Zack Cox and Greg Garcia? These fire sales prices are getting interesting circa 2012 so I hope JMo is listening. Josh Johnson is interesting because he is under contract for 2013 and we have two starters hitting free agency and another who just went under the knife. If it is a pure rental for the remainder of 2012 season, I don’t like the idea nearly as much. If we get Josh Johnson and are able to move Joe Kelly to the bullpen, we are a better team immediately and have one of the open starter slots covered gong into 2013.
I agree. I don’t think the prospect cost is dropping that low though.
Yeah, you are right that we will need to give more but could we hold on to our elite prospects and still land Johnson? I don’t know but I hope JMo is kicking the tires. Even taking into acct that LA ate $$$’s, that trade involving Ramirez has me shaking my head.
They’re dropping pretty low (as they should).
The Hanley Ramirez of the recent past at his salary is worth negative value because you could get that type of production for cheaper on the FA market (and the extra production over the current half season is worth something, but not that much because making the wild card only means a 50% chance of making the divisional round, and you have about a 1/8 chance of winning the WS even if you make it that far). Hanley would be worth prospects only if the old Hanley comes back.
Teams like the Dodgers (and Cards) should not sell out the farm for a shot at the playoffs because they have the resources to get to 90 wins (and the playoffs) every year if they are well-run.
Josh Johnson will give us 3 pitchers coming off injury making 38 mil next year. Imo that is far too much risk. Waino appears to be headed back but will he become the true #1 Waino of old? Johnson except for his last start has been terrible in July and he’s already missed 2 seasons due to arm problems and of course Carp is still up in the air.
Don’t forget about Garcia’s shoulder injury either.
I’d give up Seth Maness, Zack Cox, and Ryan Jackson (substitute Tyler Greene or Descalso if the Fish would prefer them for any of the aforementioned 3) for Josh Johnson.
I think Greg Garcia is good enough to be our starting SS after Furcal.
PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE substitute Tyler Greene.
Amen….just asked Dennis tonight if Houston had anybody left worth trading for, just because maybe a certain GM down there would value him.
What would it take to get Altuve?
A heckuva lot more than Greene.
Probably Oscar Taveras, Kolten Wong, and Shelby Miller.
BTW, note that one reason the price is dropping so low is because half-season rentals don’t bring a draft pick with them any more.
That draft pick is probably worth at least a C+ and maybe even B prospect.
Who is getting called up? I think Greene just got DFAd.
By the way, I think there are many on this board who owe LaRussa an apology…Afterall, so many were so sure that it was Tony that was holding him back.
Amen. Time to move Greene. You can’t get picked off in the 9th.
He didn’t. He got picked off in the 11th.
Actually, Greene got picked off in the 10th
ryan jackson id guess
If we need a backup SS.
Otherwise, Sugar Shane would be a possibility.
true
Who says no: Matt Adams for James Shields
Rays. In a second.
I say no as well
Depends on their payroll constraints.