With Zack Cox traded to the Miami Marlins yesterday, 1st round picks are a subject of much discussion around the web. Let’s take a look after the jump of who the Cardinals selected from 1997-2012 and where they are now.
I’m going to piggyback on a concept that erik introduced a few years ago.
| Yr. | Pick | Team | Player | Position | HS/COL | WAR |
| 97 | 20 | STL | ADAM KENNEDY | SS | COL | 18.1 |
| 98 | 5 | STL | J.D. DREW | OF | COL | 42.4 |
| 99 | 30 | STL | CHANCE CAPEL | RHP | COL | 0 |
| 00 | 10 | STL | SHAUN BOYD | 2B | HS | 0 |
| 00 | 24 | STL | BLAKE WILLIAMS | RHP | COL | 0 |
| 01 | 28 | STL | JUSTIN POPE | RHP | COL | 0 |
| 02 | 28 | STL | DARIC BARTON | C | HS | 7.6 |
| 04 | 19 | STL | CHRIS LAMBERT | RHP | COL | -0.8 |
| 05 | 28 | STL | COLBY RASMUS | OF | HS | 7.4 |
| 05 | 30 | STL | TYLER GREENE | SS | COL | -0.4 |
| 06 | 30 | STL | ADAM OTTAVINO | RHP | COL | -0.4 |
| 07 | 18 | STL | PETE KOZMA | SS | HS | 0 |
| 08 | 13 | STL | BRETT WALLACE | 3B | COL | 0.1 |
| 09 | 19 | STL | SHELBY MILLER | RHP | HS | 0 |
| 10 | 25 | STL | ZACK COX | 3B | COL | 0 |
| 11 | 22 | STL | KOLTEN WONG | 2B | COL | 0 |
| 12 | 19 | STL | MICHAEL WACHA | RHP | COL | 0 |
| 12 | 23 | STL | JAMES RAMSEY | OF | COL | 0 |
I’m using career WAR in the final column from Baseball Reference.
The Cardinals had a “dark period” in their 1st round drafting from 99-01. Daric Barton and Colby Rasmus seem to be moderately successful major leaguers, but both were traded away for other assets. They are interspersed in the 02-06 period with players that have had negative WAR in the major leagues. Lambert was traded before he made it to the majors. It is still too early to tell for the 09-12 batch, and probably too early for 07-08, but the early returns in the majors on Kozma and Wallace are disapointing.
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I wonder how many of those guys will end up having the highest career WAR in their own draft class, relative to the Cards’ post-first-round picks?
Kennedy and Drew, certainly.
In ’99 it’s Albert (13th round)
’00: Yadi (4th)
’01: Haren (2)
’02: McClellan (25)
’03: Right now it’s Ryan (7), but it could end up being Barton or Motte (19)
’04: DOA
’05: Rasmus now, could be Garcia (22)
’06: Could be Perez (1s), Jay (2), or Craig (8)
’07: Probably Descalso (3)
’08: I wouldn’t bet against Lynn (1s), although Wallace could hit his way to the top as a 1B/DH when Houston goes to the AL
’09: Interesting to see who among Miller, Kelly, M. Carp, Adams, Rosenthal, and A. Garcia puts up the best numbers.
’10: Pretty sure it won’t be Seth Blair.
’11: Wong should reach the majors first. Interesting class because there’s no obvious middle-of-the-order or top-of-the-rotation player.
’12: Wacha’s name will be the most fun to hear on SportsCenter.
Great call on that 2009 class. Looks like Joe Kelly has the lead among those names right now (to me, at least). Although, Carpenter can stay in the majors a long time as a lefty bat off the bench.
2007 was a terrible draft class
’04: DOA? Don’t ask (you don’t want to know)? Did anybody in that class reach the majors besides Hoffpauir? I didn’t look it up but I’m assuming he has negative cum WAR.
Exactly. Probably the worst draft in Cardinals history. 4 guys played briefly in the majors, and accumulated -2.3 WAR.
The next year — which, granted, was a much stronger overall draft class — the Cards picked 8 guys who played at least one game in the majors, and they’ve totaled 9.2 WAR so far.
’99 is the year to beat: 8 draftees in MLB, 111.8 WAR.
I’d put my money on ’09 as the only class that could get within 50 WAR of that one.
The execrable Shaun Boyd was the 13th pick his year, not the 10th, and it turns out to make a very significant difference in evaluating that pick. In the 48-year history of the draft, 39 #10 guys have reached the Show, and three more (Michael Choice, Cory Spangenberg, David Dahl) are too recently drafted to have done so, but are considered very likely to make it. At the #13 slot, only 25 of 48 have reached the majors, with maybe three or at most four more on the way. It’s amazing how rapidly the chances of making it drop off after the top ten choices.
This said, whether in the #10 slot or the #13 slot, that one was a complete whiff. Including that one, and ignoring the Drew choice (#5 choices also “should” make it, although a surprisingly high percentage don’t), 8 out of 13 pre-2009 mid-to-late-first-round choices have appeared in the majors, with anywhere from two (Miller and Wong) to all five of the more recent ones likely to do so eventually. Among all draftees in the 13 through 30 slots prior to 2009, 61% reached the majors. The Cardinals are therefore dead average in first-round draft efficiency, which isn’t bad at all considering that, apart from Boyd and Walrus, there were no selections in the “early” part of that window, where the success rate is somewhat (although not dramatically) higher than later.
Adding insult to injury, we passed over Utley to pick up Boyd. If there could be a cup half full, and there isn’t, think about all the money we saved by going with Boyd. ;o)
We’re still saving money…..
Correction, 8 of 12 (forgot to subtract Drew). Again, this is a “normal” success rate; a bit higher than average, actually, but not significantly so (one more miss would have about evened it out).
Hoffpauer, Lambert, and Parisi made the majors briefly from the 04 class. Not sure who the 4th one was. Barton was 03 not 02. He has never done much, is now back in the minors and not hitting much. one of his teammates, Shane Petersom, is hitting over .400 after being promoted from AA.
The other 2004 guy was Mark Worrell, notable as one of the surprisingly numerous pitchers (Adam Wainwright being another) to have homered in his first major-league at-bat. Alas, that was also his high point from a pitching perspective.