Comments on: Checking In On First Round Picks

By: Gruntosaurus

Gruntosaurus — Thu, 02 Aug 2012 17:50:07 +0000

The other 2004 guy was Mark Worrell, notable as one of the surprisingly numerous pitchers (Adam Wainwright being another) to have homered in his first major-league at-bat. Alas, that was also his high point from a pitching perspective.

By: rj

rj — Thu, 02 Aug 2012 12:34:42 +0000

Hoffpauer, Lambert, and Parisi made the majors briefly from the 04 class. Not sure who the 4th one was. Barton was 03 not 02. He has never done much, is now back in the minors and not hitting much. one of his teammates, Shane Petersom, is hitting over .400 after being promoted from AA.

By: Tackle Box

Tackle Box — Thu, 02 Aug 2012 11:53:03 +0000

We’re still saving money…..

By: TomBruno23

TomBruno23 — Thu, 02 Aug 2012 11:51:57 +0000

Great call on that 2009 class. Looks like Joe Kelly has the lead among those names right now (to me, at least). Although, Carpenter can stay in the majors a long time as a lefty bat off the bench.

By: Gruntosaurus

Gruntosaurus — Thu, 02 Aug 2012 01:42:26 +0000

Correction, 8 of 12 (forgot to subtract Drew). Again, this is a “normal” success rate; a bit higher than average, actually, but not significantly so (one more miss would have about evened it out).

By: Hugecardsfan

Hugecardsfan — Thu, 02 Aug 2012 00:38:32 +0000

Adding insult to injury, we passed over Utley to pick up Boyd. If there could be a cup half full, and there isn’t, think about all the money we saved by going with Boyd. ;o)

By: Gruntosaurus

Gruntosaurus — Wed, 01 Aug 2012 23:49:29 +0000

The execrable Shaun Boyd was the 13th pick his year, not the 10th, and it turns out to make a very significant difference in evaluating that pick. In the 48-year history of the draft, 39 #10 guys have reached the Show, and three more (Michael Choice, Cory Spangenberg, David Dahl) are too recently drafted to have done so, but are considered very likely to make it. At the #13 slot, only 25 of 48 have reached the majors, with maybe three or at most four more on the way. It’s amazing how rapidly the chances of making it drop off after the top ten choices.

This said, whether in the #10 slot or the #13 slot, that one was a complete whiff. Including that one, and ignoring the Drew choice (#5 choices also “should” make it, although a surprisingly high percentage don’t), 8 out of 13 pre-2009 mid-to-late-first-round choices have appeared in the majors, with anywhere from two (Miller and Wong) to all five of the more recent ones likely to do so eventually. Among all draftees in the 13 through 30 slots prior to 2009, 61% reached the majors. The Cardinals are therefore dead average in first-round draft efficiency, which isn’t bad at all considering that, apart from Boyd and Walrus, there were no selections in the “early” part of that window, where the success rate is somewhat (although not dramatically) higher than later.

By: Lou Schuler

Lou Schuler — Wed, 01 Aug 2012 19:51:52 +0000

Exactly. Probably the worst draft in Cardinals history. 4 guys played briefly in the majors, and accumulated -2.3 WAR.

The next year — which, granted, was a much stronger overall draft class — the Cards picked 8 guys who played at least one game in the majors, and they’ve totaled 9.2 WAR so far.

’99 is the year to beat: 8 draftees in MLB, 111.8 WAR.

I’d put my money on ’09 as the only class that could get within 50 WAR of that one.

By: jjray

jjray — Wed, 01 Aug 2012 19:25:08 +0000

’04: DOA? Don’t ask (you don’t want to know)? Did anybody in that class reach the majors besides Hoffpauir? I didn’t look it up but I’m assuming he has negative cum WAR.

By: zuke354

zuke354 — Wed, 01 Aug 2012 18:50:16 +0000

2007 was a terrible draft class