Some good outings for Cardinals pitching prospects with encouraging performances from a couple inconsistent top prospects and another dominant performance from a consistent up-and-comer. However, Seth Blair, unfortunately, is neither of these.
- A lot of the better Shelby Miller starts this year have been along the lines of “Shelby was good except for the homers/inefficiency/fat ego/egotistical fat”. This one, however, was unequivocally good as Shelby lasted 7.0 IP with only 4 hits and nary a walk to his name. He also continued to strike out batters as he has all year (but you wouldn’t know it from listening to the emerging questionable makeup storyline) with eight.
- Ryan Jackson continues to tread enough water with the bat to be intriguing with a 3-6 day and his 10th home run.
- Cedric Hunter was 3-5 with a walk.
- Matt Adams hit a double.
- Steven Hill was 2-4 with a home run.
- Bryan Anderson had a two home run day and a walk but still sits at a .614 OPS.
- Eugenio Velez and Mark Hamilton each went 2-5.
- Nick Greenwood contributed a perfect inning.
- The unstoppable Seth Maness even outdid Shelby Miller‘s gem by also going 7.0 innings but striking out 9 without allowing a single walk or earned run.
- Greg Garcia keeps walking at an excellent rate, tallying another pair of free passes and a hit.
- Though the strikeouts prevent Xavier Scruggs from hitting at a first base level, he can certainly flash power with a double and a home run.
- Jermaine Curtis was 1-3.
- Oscar Taveras was 2-4 with a double.
- Alan Ahmady was 2-4.
- Michael Blazek and Eric Fornataro covered two scoreless innings.
- Seth Blair appears to still be Seth Blair in his debut in Palm Beach, walking four and allowing 3 hits in 1.2 innings.
- Geoffrey Klein was 2-2 with a pair of walks and a home run.
- Chris Edmondson was 2-4 with a walk.
- Rainel Rosario hit a triple.
- Tyler Rahmatulla was 2-4 with a home run and a walk.
- Jose Almarante cruised through 2.2 innings.
- Tyrell Jenkins didn’t strike out many but gave up only one run in 5.0 IP and, most importantly, did not surrender a single walk.
- Matt Williams increases his hit streak to 10 as he went 3-4 with a walk.
- Anthony Garcia hit a double.
- Anthony Melchionda had a home run and two walks
- Nick Martini was 2-4 with a double.
- Luis Mateo hit a home run and took a walk.
- Robert Stock struck out 4 but walked a pair in his 3.0 innings
- Even in a shortened game, Breyvic Valera would not go without a hit.
- The other two hits were doubles by David Washington and Jacob Wilson.
- Tim Cooney went the 4 inning distance but gave up a three run home run to take the loss.
Johnson City was postponed.
Entries (RSS)
Look’s like that “no-shake rule” is starting to help Miller as he’s used his curve-ball early and often more in counts also heard his ++ fastball had the same tailing/movement as it was tailing into hitters eating them up. Miller hasn’t walked a batter in his past 24 IP.
Miller hasn’t been showing much polish this season only a 33.1% groundball rate but he maintained a modest 12.9% LD% and his walk rate/BB/9 are essentially the same from Double A to Triple A.
Miller has the second-highest K% in the PCL: 24%.
The only guy ahead of him is 5 years older.
I had an email exchange with an industry friend of mine that said that he looked as good as ever a couple weeks ago. Rumor is that the Cardinals were not pleased with the make-up side of the game.
Ryan Jackson continues to have a solid quiet offensive season .275/.335/.407 .330 wOBA 91 wRC+ his K rate is slightly down and his BB rate is slightly up a bit good indicators. BABIP was .314 in 2011, in 2012 .307. Still think if Jackson can hit for an ML average while playing his above average defense at SS he will play everyday.
Am I the only one struggling what to make of Seth Maness? Obviously I want to believe he is Greg Maddux. He’s putting up numbers that you’d expect a top-of-the-rotation pitcher to put up in AA.
I’m trying to temper my enthusiasm by reminding myself that he doesn’t throw hard and that he relies on control to dominate. However, it seems like almost every time he pitches, his control is there.
I don’t think he’s a Top 10 prospect in our system. I also don’t think he’s a Top 100 prospect in baseball. Yet he’s pitching like a former 1st round pick and a Top 25 prospect in baseball. Is he Brad Thompson? Better? Bob Tewksburry? Better? Greg Maddux? Is he overachieving?
Maybe a write-up on Maness may be necessary?
Maness’ AA line is almost eerily similar to Wonder Brad’s, and he’s actually slightly older, which all else equal is not a good sign. However, all else is not completely equal. One of the things about Thompson at that age was that he was mean as a snake. This is a guy who, despite excellent control, averaged nearly one hit-by-pitch per 30 batters faced. He had more HBPs in his AA year than he did home runs allowed. Think about that for a minute. Maness, by contrast, has a much more normal HBP rate.
So you’re saying Thompson didn’t wake up one day after having made the show with a desire to kick puppies? :) I don’t care if Maness hits batters, just that he goes inside regularly. Normally you take HBP as a proxy for willingness to go inside but Maness might be one of those rare examples of a control pitcher who goes inside but doesn’t hit batters. I really can’t even offer an opinion as I’ve never seen him pitch.
i don’t think i’d call them “eerily” similar. thompson had a 5.18 K/BB ratio over 72 innings in AA (by far his best K/BB ratio in any individual season of any comparable sample size). maness has a 9.57 K/BB ratio in 95 innings at AA, and a 10.62 K/BB ratio for his minor league career. maness’s control is on a whole other level from thompson’s.
Thats reassuring. I don’t like this talk of Brad Thompson.
When the league average for K/BB is something like 1.9:1, I’m not sure the difference between 5.2:1 and 9.5:1 puts one “on a whole other level” from the other when both are obtained by having very low BB rates. Wonder Brad’s BB rates were extremely low; Maness’ are preternaturally low. They are similar in K/9 rates, H/9, WHIP (some advantage to Wonder Brad here and in H/9), HR/9. Note that this similarity is not a bad thing in and of itself. Thompson was a very effective pitcher at AA. It just didn’t last.
To jjray’s point: I’m not sure how good a proxy HBP rates are for pitching inside. Maddux, etc., certainly weren’t afraid to pitch inside, but never had high HBP rates. HBP are a pretty good surrogate for control issues in many cases, but obviously not here.
Pitchers who reach the majors with profiles like Maness are very rare birds. Not a single pitcher in the modern era has a career K/BB ratio greater than 5 over a career of at least 1000 IP, and even single-season ratios greater than 5 (minimum 1 IP/team game, so only starters) are rare — 68 since 1900 if I count correctly, a large fraction of them by guys named Halladay or Schilling or Maddux or such. We just don’t have much precedent for guys like this reaching the majors.
i agree that there aren’t many archetypes for guys like maness, but there aren’t a lot of guys with his kind of control who fail either. there just aren’t many comps for that kind of extreme K/BB ratio.
i just have no idea what to make of him. i guess my one comment is that if he’s brad thompson with really, really good control, that’s probably a reasonable major leaguer. thompson was an archetypal replacement value guy with a cumulative 4.19 K/BB in the minors. maness to date has a 10.62 K/BB rate in his minor league career. maness also has a better GB rate (72.9%, 58.5%, 56.2%) than thompson’s 47-50% GB rate.
if maness has control significantly better than thompson, he could be a guy with a 4% BB rate (rather than 6 or 7% for thompson) in the majors. that, with the improved GB rate, could make a big difference.
Not a lot, but they do exist. I can’t resist this: go to baseball-reference.com and check out the minor-league line for a fellow named Brett Black. He made Maness look like a complete wild man. Problem is, you still gotta have stuff, and his was insufficient to get more advanced hitters out. He topped out at high A, rattled around the indy leagues for a while, and hung ‘em up with a CAREER K/BB rate about the same as what Maness has had at Springfield this year.
There are probably other stories like that one out there, but I happen to know his, ’cause he’s my cousin’s kid.
good find, although he never made it above A+ ball. i think seeing maness at memphis next year will be very interesting.
Is maness being brad thompson really that bad? For a long reliever he wasn’t terrible. I understand if that isn’t what we want, but for a seventh starter/long reliever making league min. That has value. Not every prospect can be elite.
An interesting thing to look up about Maness would be how many strikeouts are looking vs swinging. My personal opinion of him is that he’s a 4/5, but that shouldn’t be seen as a slight. Being a potential cheap number 4 starter for 6 years is pretty valuable.
Look at minorleaguecentral .com under Maness’ stats and there is a section on “balls not in play” and “pitches” that might interest you. On the surface, it looks like his swing/looking ratio is about league average.
SHELBY MILLER ALERT!!!!!
Miller could do a lot to rehabilitate his status as a top pitching prospect by finishing strong. It would make it pretty easy to forget how much he has struggled this year at AAA.
Sickels has an interesting article on Shelby: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/8/6/3224230/minor-league-prospect-note-shelby-miller-rhp-st-louis-cardinals
He is clearly still bullish.