Andy has the week off. I believe — if I’ve got my timeline right — that he’s now officially married and enjoying a honeymoon abroad. Congratulations, Andy.
The rest of you will have to put up with more of me for the time being. A rather modest day on the farm with some nice offensive nights for familiar names in the short season clubs. The pitching included Trevor Rosenthal who had a rough outing.
Memphis 6, Fresno 7 (11 innings)
- Matt Adams was 2-for-5 with a double. It’s been easy to forget about Adams given the more than adequate performance of Allen Craig in the majors but Adams continues to be an interesting prospect with a slash line of .331/.364/.630 in Memphis.
- Eugenio Velez was 3-for-4 with a double and a triple.
- Nick Derba was 1-for-4 with a 3 run home run.
- Ryan Jackson was 0-for-4 as his late season offensive slide continues. He now stands at .269/.331/.398 for the season with a sub .600 OPS in the start of August.
- Trevor Rosenthal got bruised up in his outing as Fresno planted 6 runs on him in 5 innings. Rosenthal walked 2 and struck out 5 but allowed 6 hits. Rosenthal has been quite good this year but if you look at the difference between his breakout 2011 and 2012, both his walk rate and strikeout rate have ticked in the wrong direction. It’s still been an impressive jump for a player who spent last year in Quad Cities.
- Maikel Cleto pitched 1.1 innings walking 2 and allowing a hit.
- John Gaub took the walk off loss in the 11th.
- Kolten Wong was 2-for-5.
- Oscar Taveras was 2-for-4 with a triple.
- Richard Castillo was solid allowing just 1 run on 5 hits and a walk. Castillo pitched 6 innings and struck out 4. Castillo has had success this year between Palm Beach and Springfield but the strikeout rate does not speak well of his long term prospects.
- Michael Blazek struck out 3 in 2 relief innings.
- Keith Butler had another shaky outing allowing 2 walks in the 9th while striking out 2.
- James Ramsey was 2-for-4 with a walk.
- Chris Edmondson was 2-for-4.
- Geoffrey Klein was 3-for-4 with a pair of doubles.
- Neal Pritchard was 2-for-4.
- Todd McInnis struck out 4 in 7 innings of work. He walked 1 and allowed 4 hits for 2 runs.
- Zach Russell struck out 2 in a scoreless 9th.
- Quad Cities managed just 6 hits including 1 extra base hit. They failed to draw a walk.
- Nick Martini was 2-for-3 with a double.
- Brad Watson allowed 3 runs (2 earned) across 6 innings. He struck out 4 and allowed 1 walk with 7 hits.
- Heath Wyatt struck out 2 and walked 2 in an inning of work.
- Steve Ramos (CF) was 2-for-5 with a stolen base.
- Breyvic Valera (2B) was 3-for-4 with a double and a stolen base.
- Danny Stienstra (1B) was 2-for-4.
- Jonathan Keener (C) was 2-for-4.
- Tyler Melling went 7 innings and walked a bit of a tight rope. He only recorded 2 strikeouts and was tagged for 10 hits. In spite of all the hits, he held State College to just 3 runs.
- Lee Stoppelman struck out 5 in 2 perfect innings. If Stoppelman hasn’t clocked on your prospect radar yet, he should. With 31 strikeouts in 26 innings, Stoppelman has walked just 6.
Johnson City 2, Elizabethton 5
- Ildemaro Vargas (2B) was 3-for-4 with a pair of doubles.
- Gerwuins Velazco (C) was 2-for-3.
- Johnson City struck out 11 times and managed just 7 hits.
- Silfredo Garcia was solid striking out 5 in 6 innings of work. He allowed 3 runs (1 earned). His only real blemish of the day was the 2 home runs mixed among the 4 hits.
- Joseph Donofrio allowed 2 hits and struck out 4 in 2 innings.
Entries (RSS)
Richard Castillo may not have a high strikeout rate he’s kind of reinvented himself into more of a groundball type pitcher owns a 52.8% groundball rate.
Oscar “Ted Williams” Taveras and his violent controlled swing now has 57 XBH (20 HR, 30 2B, 7 3B). Taveras line .325/.387/.581 overall.
You should probably give credit to Drew Silva for that tweet. Looks like you just copied and pasted his last tweet and added your own spice to it. Unless you ARE Drew Silva, which I don’t believe you are (I think your bighurt23 or something like that), then you should really give credit where it’s due.
Do we have to continue saying “violent controlled swing” any time OT is mentioned? We all now know he has a violent swing. It’s not necessary to bring it up every day.
Brett, that’s DT’s signature when it comes to OT. If I didn’t read it when I came to this site, I’d start to get a little antsy. It becomes a little like a song in your head. You find yourself humming it throughout the day and such. VCS, the new anagram for OT?
Does this satisfy you BigRob.
Drew Silva
“Oscar “Ted Williams” Taveras tallied his 57th XBH (20 HR, 30 2B, 7 3B) last night at Double-A. Now batting .325/.387/.581 overall. “
As long as you cite your source then I’m fine. It always bothers me when people try to pass off work from others as their own. Just a personal pet-peeve.
That is insane.
OT averages and Extra base hit in over half his games.
43% of his hits are for extra bases.
Lee Stoppelman is certainly a prospect to watch. Stoppelman (“31 K in 26 innings”) averaging 11.96 K/9 and owns a gaudy 33.7% K rate and has held opponents only to a .161 AVG.
Stoppelman sits in the high 80s on his fastball his delivery has been described as funky low arm slot kind of like he throws side arm at times which helps his deception on the mound also throws a slider that has a lot of break because of the arm slot. Stoppelman could be an effective LOOGY.
I’m starting my “free Lee” campaign – send him to QC.
Is there ever a game where Breyvic Valera doesn’t at least have 1 hit?
Haha, I was thinking the same thing the other day. He’s got to be one of the most underrated prospects or “well kept secrets” in our system.
He gets overlooked, and maybe rightfully so, because there are so many “big name” prospects that are closer to the Majors than he is. I think when he gets to Springfield that we’ll start hearing more about him.
Regarding Trevor Rosenthal and his less than stellar performance last night:
Don’t be surprised if he experiences some similar struggles that Shelby Miller faced earlier this season. They are pitching in a lot of very friendly hitter’s parks, coupled with the fact that they are facing hitters that have spent time in the big leagues. Triple-A isn’t easy. We saw that with Miller and now I suspect we will see it with Rosenthal. Miller appears to have turned the corner, so hopefully he can help Rosenthal reach that corner quicker than he himself did.
This is a great point. As fans, we put a lot of emphasis on AA as the big leap for a prospect, while AAA is seen more as a finishing school for some prospects and a holding pen for former prospects. But I suspect the leap from AA to AAA is bigger than that.
Quite a few years ago I attended a talk at a strength and conditioning conference by Gene Coleman, who works with the Astros and also has some published research. In one of his studies, he looked at the differences in physical abilities by level. The fastest guys are at the lowest levels. The ceiling for a guy whose game is based on speed is AA. After that, the average player is slower, suggesting that guys getting by on pure athleticism have been sorted out.
Strength, conversely, increases at each level, which makes sense, given that the ballplayers are not just more physically mature at higher levels, they’ve been training specifically for strength all along.
Physical strength and power tend to peak in the mid to late 20s for all athletes (and decline after 30, however slightly), so when the average age of a league’s hitters goes up, a pitcher ends up facing stronger, better developed hitters, on average.
Put all that together, and the leap from AA to AAA becomes even more dramatic. The average age in AA is 24 vs. 26 or 27 in AAA. AA still has guys who’re getting by on athleticism vs. skill. They may include some of the same guys a prospect has faced not just in lower levels, but in college or on the showcase circuit in high school. In AAA the population is different. A 26- or 27-year-old former big-leaguer is way beyond the peer group of a 21- or 22-year-old stud prospect. The stud prospect may have more upside potential and higher rankings from scouts than the older guys he’s going up against, but the older guys are typically stronger, on top of being far more experienced.
Beyond that, you have to think the older guys are eager to get back to the majors, and salivate at the chance to tear up a stud prospect in front of a larger than usual crowd of scouts and hardcore prospect nerds.
Good stuff. Thanks for Posting Lou.
Something I would add to that is the length of season increases as well. So fatigue and condition play a factor when you get into august.
A further point of this illustrates how hard the jump is from AA to the major leagues. Which is why its not always a good idea to rush players, especially ones that not as physicly mature.
Great point about the longer season. Hadn’t thought of that. Yet another way the older guys will have an advantage in AAA.
Great post Lou! Thanks for sharing!
Which begs the question of why the organization rushed Rosenthal to STL from AA only to sit on the bench in the pen.
At least 3 reasons I can think of, jj:
1. he impressed in spring training and the club wanted to reward that.
2. they wanted to give a promising pitcher a taste of the majors at a young age. We all know many players don’t succeed in their first trip to the bigs.
3. but I think the real reason was to give him a mid-season sabbatical and keep his innings for the year under control. He now has thrown 108 innings total. His previous high (last year) was 120. My guess is the Cards want to keep him under 150 innings for the year and the time in the majors served to reduce his overall innings. He probably has 5 more starts this year at Memphis, say around 30 innings and then some in a September call-up would get him to around 150.
sabbatical is only one that makes some sense.
The Cardinals have also had some success with having pitchers like Lynn and Wainwright getting their feet wet out of the pen.
Their original hope may have been that he would serve as a power arm out of the pen at the end of this year and then they could start him next year but obviously they were not happy with the initial results.
Lynn and Wainwright both logged plenty of innings in AA before going to the pen in the bigs. This time last last year, Rosenthal was pitching in Quad Cities. In his case, the leap was especially large. Thus, the organization double up on large leaps in the same season (A- to AA then AA to MLB in the span of a few months). I didn’t like it.
error correction, “Lynn and Wainwright both logged plenty of innings in AA” should be AAA.
I disagree. Rosenthal was not a bonus baby – I would not discount the pay raise issue at all. I also think the Cards will consider him for the rotation in 2013 even though I think he will be in the pen – so giving him a taste makes sense. And while I am a broken record, Rosenthal’s innings of 120 do not include his subsequent 16 in the play-offs, so his real innings pitched was 136 last year.
Hey, rch3: thanks for the correction on Rosenthal’s innings. I obviously forgot to look at the playoffs and appreciate the info. All in all, that means the Cards can push him a little more than I thought the rest of this year. And, it means that, should he make the rotation next year, he could come close to pitching a full season.
So the 1,000 cardinal player is a St. louis kid?
Seriously though I am not as worried about this move. Rosenthal is at least 22, it was a temporary move and he had to be added to the roster this year anyway.
Top shelf insights and info, Lou.
Something else to consider: the conditions of playing improve at the big league level. Travel, hotels, food. Medical care. Better ballparks and lighting for night games.
For a player like Taveras, who loves to swing the bat, I wonder if playing in better conditions with pitchers who are always around the plate is going to help him some.
If OT has a good spring next year, I’d be very tempted to have take over in CF.
Another great point.
The big-leaguers also have advance scouts to give them critical information about opponents, which of course cuts both ways. It’ll help the players who can adjust their game to use the scouting reports, and against the guys who play more on instinct. Those guys will get taken advantage of when opposing teams use their tendencies against them.
This is where maturity matters. When you see guys who put up numbers in MLB that are similar to what they did in the minors, I wonder if it’s because of the superior coaching and scouting, and their ability to use the information they get. When you see guys whose numbers fall way off, more than you’d expect, I tend to suspect the opposite.
Rosie was just doing his impression of Wild Thang from Major League. That first inning featured 2 HBP and a wild pitch along with a walk. After that he seemed to settle down ok. He gave up a liner and the other hits were ground balls with one being the infield variety. Then in the 3rd inning his second walk haunted him with the subsequent home run. Not a good outing at all, but he was able to settle down ok after the terrible start.
Carson Kelly is scuffling…big time
Good news is Kelly surprised a lot of people with his power potential in his first season in pro ball. Right now he is scuffling badly he will have to make a few adjustments to his approach.
I wonder if Vuch and company (using hindsight) would have started both Carson Kelly (3B) and Steve Bean (C) in the Gulf Coast League rather than Johnson City. I know Bean was sent down about ten days ago. I’m assuming that the organization wanted Bean to have soon hitting success before the short-season year was over. It will be interesting to see how Vuch et al handle the 2013 high-school draft picks..
The other good news is that he is legally still a child
I DIDN’T MEAN IT LIKE THAT GUYS
you get older, high school prospects stay the same age, huh, uncle randy?
I must say I am not as worried about Rosenthal having a few bad games (only one so far), as I am or was about Miller. Since the book on Rosenthal out of spring training was that he was listening, learning and making adjustments. Hopefully Miller has finally figured it out that he needs to do the same.
I saw where Tyler Greene got traded to the Astros…I wonder who the Cards will call up to replace him?
This probably depends to some extent on Furcal’s precarious health. If they’re really sure he’ll be able to play more or less every day, then it may be best to bring up Adams for the thundering bat, and avoid filling the last 40-man slot, starting the Jackson arb clock, etc. If Furcal looks day-to-day, which seems more likely, there’s probably not much but to bite the bullet and buy Jackson’s contract. I would not be averse to seeing him in the majors for an audition, to be sure, but it would be better if that wasn’t because the starting shortstop that we paid megabucks to get is starting to break down.
Hopefully Kozma does not replace Greene. Not sure what other IF are on the 40 man roster, though.
I think it has to be Kozma. Only Hamilton and Adams are IF on the 40-man. Koz would see the same amount of playing time as Tyler, so I don’t see the problem with him being the emergency infielder.
Of course, the trade does open a 40-man spot, so Jackson or (perish the thought) Taveras would be possible.
Ramsey’s K rate worrisome at all?
MiLB.com had an article about that the other day:
http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120807&content_id=36265846&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb
Is it possible to get Jackson on the 40 man and promoted? I prefer him over kozma.
I think a lot of us would prefer Jackson. However, as you said, that would involve putting Jackson on the 40-man. As it stands, there are 39 players on the 40-man roster. But remember, Jaime Garcia is due to be back soon, and removing him from the 60-day DL would require him to take a spot on the 40-man.
Therefore, if the Cardinals were to add Jackson and bring him up, they’d have to place another player on the 40-man through the waiver process. Personally, there are a few players on the 40-man that I really don’t understand why they are there other than depth. There are a couple guys that are very unlikely to see any time in STL so I don’t think it would be a big loss if another team were to claim them.
Ryan is called up
Haven’t heard that yet, but I hope you’re right.
I all for Ryan Jackson getting the call. The organization benefits from giving him exposure to the bigs this season and he is reputed to be the best defensive SS in high minors of our organization. Considering the situation with Furcal’s back and the injection he recently took, let’s get a look at the best defensive SS on the big stage. He’s also acquitted himself well at the plate the season so I think Jackson has earned it.
They don’t have to bite that bullet quite yet. Indications are that they are going to be cautious about bringing Garcia back, using as much of the rehab assignment as they can. Doing that kicks the can down the road a bit for the waivers.
I don’t disagree with your assessment, but who do you think is the first guy off the bus? Not obvious to me. Hamilton, maybe?
Personally, and it’s nothing against the guy, but I just don’t see the need for John Gaub. I think he’s the first one gone when the need for a spot comes up.
I also have a hard time seeing Mark Hamilton, Brandon Dickson, Steven Hill, and Victor Marte lasting much longer. Adam Reifer is starting to creep into that territory as well.
There’s some exciting, young, new prospects starting to climb up from the lower minors. These guys “hanging on” in AAA may not be there as earlier as next season.
Brandon Dickson still has value as an emergency starter. Hamilton and one of Hill or Anderson would be my bet. Luhnow probably already has a locker set up for Bryan Anderson down in Houston right next to Tyler Greene. Gaub is another possibility with the acquisition of Fuentes.
I like Dickson and I think he definitely has value as a Brad Thompson-type. However, as more pitchers are required to be placed on the 40-man, he keeps getting bumped further down the depth chart.
My personal depth chart (currently) for Starting Pitchers:
Wainwright
Lohse
Lynn
Westbrook
Kelly
Miller
Rosenthal
Gast
Dickson
Now that doesn’t include injured pitchers Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia. So when you factor them in, Dickson falls from #9 to #11 on my own personal Starters depth chart and Carlos Martinez and Seth Maness are close to passing him as well.
Yes, Dickson will have a tough time holding on to a 40 man roster spot next season with the Cards … although he might have shown enough for another team to give it to him. But as to the remainder of this season I think Dickson is safe, especially with Garcia getting shelled tonight. Lynn and Joe Kelly are venturing into (or will venture into soon) the territory of career high innings. The organization is in a situation where, if Garcia can’t take a few starts, someone else from Memphis is going to have to step into the breach. Rosenthal and Dickson are on the 40 man. Gast would have to be considered. Not too long ago the Cards would be desperately combing through recently released pitchers trying to find a guy with a pulse. Maybe they take one of the rotation spots and turn it into piggy back (or bullpen) after the rosters expand. Have Garcia, Kelly, and Rosenthal all scheduled for 2-3 innings that night.
I’m not worried about next season; I’m worried about next week, when Garcia comes off the DL. The first 40-man cut will have to be made then, not waiting for next season. I’d agree that most of the guys you mention are candidates for an off-season non-tender, although I am irrationally attached to the idea of keeping Steven Hill around for as long as he is willing to be kept — catchers with that much pop don’t grow on trees, even if the “catch” part of catcher is, to put it gently, not a strength. But one of those guys has gotta be removed from the 40-man NOW. We can’t wait for the winter to sort things out.
Of the ones you name, Dickson would be the last one I’d want to cut. There are too many eventualities that could make it
desirablean unfortunate necessity that he get a couple of garbage starts before the end of the season. As I’ve said, I rather like keeping Hill around as an emergency catcher-of-sorts, which reduces the short list of immediate potential cuts to Hamilton, Reifer and Marte. I think I’d release them in that order.Oops. Should have been clearer. After Gaub, I mean; agreed, he’s almost certainly the first man off the 40-man if it comes to that.
John Sickels’ take on Jackson’s call-up
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/8/10/3234200/minor-league-prospect-note-ryan-jackson-ss-st-louis-cardinals#storyjump
Kozma has a temporary lock on the Memphis SS job. Ryan Jackson promoted to STL.