With Shelby Miller showing that he is returning to his old form and Oscar Taveras continuing to tear up the Texas League that leaves us with a dilemma here towards the end of the season. Who is your number 1 prospect?
Before Miller pulled the season out of a swan dive, for me, Oscar Taveras was clearly #1 over Miller. Now, Shelby Miller has made a case to hold on to the spot.
Discussion post today, who is your number 1 prospect and why?
Entries (RSS)
Taveras.
I’m going with Shelby Taveras….I mean Oscar Miller…..dang….I can’t decide!!!
Taveras
Both players are great….but to me, considering who the Redbirds have in the outfield, I’ll take Shelby Miller…quality starters on the mound is a rarer commodity than good hitting…..That being said, I hope to see BOTH of them on the STL roster in next 2 seasons
What a nice problem to have. Taveres is arguably the best pure offensive prospect in the minors (although not the best position player prospect). Miller’s stock is back up but he’s not quite at the same level. So Taveres.
To me Taveras has answered questions about his power and his ability to play center field. While Miller, even though he has got me down from the ledge, has left me wondering about his fluctuating velocity and his mental make up. Taveras is still clearly #1.
I think the main question on Miller from the rumors I was hearing isn’t make-up perse. He has that cocky chip on his shoulder that will aide him in the future (frankly I have heard he is a bit of an asshole). The main issue was him showing up ready to work, get his video time in, work on gameplans, and generally just being professional and serious about his craft.
I got that from a friend in the Rays org so it is kinda second hand, but they scouted him and said his stuff was as good as anyone in AAA.
At this point I would have said Taveras even if Miller had repeated his Double-A numbers in Memphis. He’s keeping his average up, has a good k/bb ratio, but has added power, even adjusted for Hammons. At 20 in AA I think he’s become a top 10 prospect in baseball, which is where Miller was before he’s had any struggles at all.
Well, Shelby’s closer to the majors and doing his thang against better competition.
Also, and I’m not sure how valid this view is, but elite hitter/average fielder corner outfielders are easier to find than legitimate, bona fide aces. I wonder if the rarity of true frontline pitchers and Shelby’s promise of being precisely that make him more valuable than OT, and thus a better prospect. That’s a moot point if, as was mentioned, OT can play CF.
I want all our pitchers to be Aces, but I’m not sure where you get “Shelby’s promise of being precisely that”. First, I would say there are very few pitchers that you can truly forecast as an Ace based on minor league performance, and I wouldn’t put Miller in that category. He does not have elite velocity, and nobody that I know of projects his curve as elite. His groundball rate is certainly not elite. Can Miller be an Ace? Yes, absolutely. However, based on what we really know, I would project OT with more certainty as a potential elite player. Both players will be regulars for STL for years to come. I pretty much expect Miller to struggle when he first gets to the Bigs. He will continue to develop. He doesn’t really have a ceiling, but his floor could still be a #4 or #5. OT doesn’t have much of an offensive ceiling, he has a slightly above average D ceiling, but his floor seems a bit higher than average major leaguer IMO.
I think the thought that Taveras can do his thing approx. 150 games per year vs. roughly 32 starts for Miller gives him an edge. It is a good problem to have.
I’m with The DL. All things being equal, I’ll always take the position player. But I’m mighty happy to see Miller dealing again.
I dislike this argument everytime I hear it.
He will get 4-5 plate appearances in each of those 150 games. Plus a handful of defensive plays, which I will ignore for the sake of my argument. So 600-700 plate appearances where he can impact the game.
A starting pitcher faces 800-900 batters a year. Thats 800-900 plate appearances where he can impact the game.
Position players may appear in 120 more games, but their impact on each individual game is considerably less. I’m sure somewhere is an analysis of the value of each of those, but everytime I hear 150 games vs 32 as if they are contributing equally I cringe.
Well, it is still a team game. A pitcher needs a defense to make plays and those plays are spread out to the other 8 players. Even on strike-outs a good catcher helps. Conversely, when a batter makes an out or a hit, nobody else on his team is aiding in that endeavor. I’m not saying the pitcher is not the most important and impactful defensive player on the field, but I still think it comes down to how many games a player can affect vs. the number of so-called one on one battles fought.
That said, an “Ace” who can lead a team to 15 games over .500 is worth a ton. But that isn’t just any starting pitcher. Can we project Miller as a true “Ace”? Not yet IMO.
What makes me cringe is that you choose to ignore a position player’s defensive contribution simply “for the sake of your argument.”
Defense matters and you can’t just ignore it simply because you don’t like how it affects your argument. Good CF’s make 250-300 plays per year and do it at a premium position. It’s not irrelevant and you shouldn’t treat it as such simply because it doesn’t fit your argument.
I’ve given this some thought. A true #1 starter (5+ WAR per year, say) is probably the rarest commodity in baseball. I think over any multiyear span you’ll find more hitters who string together consecutive all-star-type seasons than pitchers.
But ultimately, wins are wins, right? So a middle-of-the-order hitter who gives you 5-7 WAR per year through his peak is more valuable than a pitcher who gives you 5 one year, 3 the next, then 7, then a year on the DL for TJ surgery, then a 3-win year while he recovers, then a couple more years of 5 WAR before he hurts his shoulder.
Right now I’d say we’re more likely to see a string of 5+ WAR seasons from Taveras than from anyone else in the organization. So in my mind he’s #1. (Of course I’m not predicting that kind of production, just pointing out that he seems capable of it.)
If you asked me to bet on which of our top pitching prospects is most likely to end his career with the highest total WAR, I don’t know which one I’d pick. Miller may have the best stuff, but I don’t have any sense of whether he’ll be more consistently productive over time than Kelly, Rosenthal, Martinez, or Wacha. All five guys pass the stuff test. They all have the velocity, the athleticism, the drive, and the potential for secondary pitches that suggest mid-rotation careers, if not solid #2 status.
But I think it’s too early to know if any of them have what it takes to be a #1 — the guy with 3 plus pitches who can take the ball 32 times a year and log 200+ innings for several years in a row.
Except, if its easier to find a 7-win field player, which I agree it is, then you can more easily/affordably find one via trade or particularly on the free agent market than you can find a true #1 starter. I haven’t and am not going to right now look into this, but I BET that if you look around the league, you’ll find more elite SPs are with the teams that drafted/developed them than are elite field players.
If I’m right, then one of the only (cost-effective) ways you can find elite SP talent is by developing it, making commodities like Shelby more valuable and thus better prospects.
i think you’re confusing effect and cause. starting pitching is harder to find because there’s a higher injury and bust rate. oscar is more likely, based on his position player status, to pan out. shelby is not a “true #1 starter,” he’s a prospect with the potential to become a true #1 starter. he’s more likely to flop than oscar.
generally, top 20 position players carry more value than top 20 pitching prospects.
That’s an insightful point, and one I hadn’t thought of.
I just checked on Fangraphs, and it looks like the top 5 in pitching WAR for 2012 (F. Hernandez, Verlander, Kershaw, Strasberg, Cueto) are all w. their original orgs.
Then you have Gio Gonzalez, followed by 2 more original-org guys (Sale and Price).
Even the Phillies, with Cliff Lee and Halladay, have gotten the most value out of their own guy, Hamels.
The Cards are pretty lucky to have gotten Carp off the discount aisle and traded for Wainwright.
OTOH, the top 4 fWAR hitters are also original-org guys (Trout, McCutchen, Braun, Wright), along with what looks like the majority of the top 20. Major exceptions are guys like Holliday and Miggy Cabrera.
Bottom line, teams today are less likely to deal top prospects or let the best young players go into free agency.
MICHAEL WACHA
JK, it’s Oscar. It’s easier for me to trust a top position player than a top starter. Shelby may wind up more valuable if he is successful/uninjured as a starter, but I think Oscar is that safer, but still very high potential, bet.
Give me Oscar…and this is more of a compliment to what he has done this year rather than what Shelby hasnt done. Looking at Shelby’s last 8 games he has an ERA around 3 and 54 K’s over 48 innings with just a few walks littered throughout. Shelby looks like Shelby again…a great number 2 or a good number 1. However, Oscar has moved from a 2 hole hitter to a 3 or 5 hole guy with a chance to play center for a few years.
The violent controlled swing of Oscar Taveras definitely.
I think the better prospect is Taveras but, assuming both play to their potential, Miller would be more important to the Cardinals at the major league level. Having a successful Miller in St. Louis might end up being the most important factor in our ability to re-sign Wainwright. Though Taveras will also save us plenty of cash when he reaches St. Louis, having good starting pitching is more expensive.
Another factor is the trade value-effect he could provide for us. If Shelby is ready to join the rotation around the trade deadline, that means we could move the relatively cheap (and newly re-signed) Jake Westbrook and possibly get a decent haul for him.
But, if I were a betting man, I think Taveras will have a better major league career than Miller. I’ve been following Taveras’ season so far and his wOBA–the best hitting sabermetric–has been outstanding all season. The highest ranking is “Excellent,” which is considered to be .400, and Taveras has been fluctuating between .410-416 all season. Not too bad.
For me its not 1 & 2 its almost 1A & 1B.
Oscar is 1A because he has been succesful all season but Shelby has come back to show that he should still be in the conversation for the#1 spot.
I’m going to go with Taveras. A little younger and all he has done is succeed so far. A bit off topic but is Taveras hurt? Didn’t play August 17th, last night and he is not playing again tonight. It would suck if he is DL bound the rest of the year. I really hope he is back in there soon so we can see what his numbers will look like.
I’ll go with OT also, and I have the same question as you as to why he didn’t play last night and tonight.
If Oscar can really stick in CF, he’s #1(and I would intend he is the
Top Hitting prospect in all Of baseball)
If he can’t stick, Shelby is still #1
Contend, not intend
I said Oscar before it was cool to say Oscar so no reason to change horses in the middle of the ….
I said Oscar after the first time I saw him play in the 1st series of his QC year :)
I think you have to go with Taveras. All indicators are that he will be a impact player, not just a regular. I think Miller is going to be a staple of the rotation for years, and that’s an awesome player for the system to produce; but I don’t think he’ll be a top of the rotation ace type.
Hmm I hope i’m not going to rain on the ace parade here… The prospect guys (goldstien, klaw, etc) seem to think Miller’s ceiling is #2 starter (Matt Cain territory) and I think his minor league track record backs that up. That’s a very very good player.. 3-5WAR/yr. He does not however project as #1. He’s too hittable to make the argument I think. Take a look at the minor league track records of Justin Verlander, Matt Moore, Clayton Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg. Now compare those to Matt Cain, Adam Wainwright, Madison Bumgarner and Shelby Miller. That 2nd class has great K numbers, walk rates, k/bb ratio.. they just get hit around slightly more than the that elite class. They’ll be very successful major league pitchers, occasionally contend for cy youngs etc.. That first group will perennially contend for cy young and mvp awards. The bottom line is, there is a difference in performance and I think we should be realistic with Miller’s ceiling when discussing his value.
Not sure your argument holds water. Verlander and Strassburg were college drafts and quite a bit further along than Miller when they hit the minors. Miller’s BB rate was similar to Kershaw’s and his K rate actually better. Not sure Miller’s position in the rotation is written yet.
If John Jay continues to produce in the lead-off role in CF, then why does Tavares have to stay in CF? To me, it sets up for Tavares to take over in RF after Beltran leaves after next year. He plays RF, Jay plays CF, Craig is at first base. Adams gets traded.
The other possibility is to put Adams at first, Craig in RF and Tavares in CF, but I think this makes Craig susceptible to injury more so than 1B. That makes Jay trade bait along with one of Miller, Rosenthal, and Kelly.
Going forward we will have Garcia, Lynn, and likely Wainright. We mix in Rosenthal, Miller, Kelly, Wacha, and Martinez to fill two spots in the rotation. Some will likely need to be moved. Maybe for a top shortstop?
The interesting thing will be whether we re-sign Lohse or pick up Westbrook’s option for next year or we expect one of these guys to fill the rotation and count on Carpenter to return healthy.
Doubt we sign Lohse and we already exercised Westbrook’s option.
Sorry. Been locked down at work and missed the news on Westbrook. That makes it less likely we re-sign Lohse, but what of Carpenter’s uncertainty. Do we go into next eyar with Wainwright, Garcia, Lynn, Westbrook, and maybe Carp wth an uncertain future and hope Kelly, Miller or Rosenthal can give you enough to cover for Carp?
Lots of interesting decisions to be made over the next few years.
some scouts don’t trust Jay’s offfensive profile/production to hold up long term but he showed he can hit at a consistent level so far in his first 3 seasons. I certainly am a believer in Taveras sticking in CF long term as well he plays show shallow in the OF in SPF covers so much ground and get’s much improved reads, jumps, and routes off the ball and to the ball. It will be interesting to see how is patrolling CF in 2014.
Right, because year over year Jay’s hitting has been so inconsistent. Good grief.
He doesn’t necessarily have to stay in CF but he has more value as a CF than as an RF. It, therefore, affect which prospect is more valuable.