Cardinals Made The Right Move To Call Up Miller
Posted on September 5th, 2012 by Jeff in shelby millerAs we all know by now the Cardinals have called up their 2011 #1 Overall prospect from AAA Memphis to the major league bullpen for the stretch run. This move comes with very little downside roster-wise and a nice bonus for a top prospect after a good season. More after the jump.
The Cardinals adding Shelby Miller to the 40 man roster and calling him up to the big leagues means that they will now begin to have to burn option (years) each year to send him back down to AAA. They could have avoided this by keeping him off the 40 man roster until if/when they called him up to the big leagues next year.
However, with 3 option (years) available, odds are the Miller will be solidly in the majors within 2 years and will not need his full allotment of options, so the Cardinals potentially having to burn one next season will not come back to haunt them in the long term.
And lastly on this point, Miller could make the rotation or bullpen out of Spring Training and the Cardinals will not even have to burn even one option on him.
Let’s not split hairs here either, Shelby Miller earned this promotion. His tRA+ (averaged for his league, scaled so 100 is average) was 119. Not his usual heights, but a great number. He struck out 27% of his batters, which was a tick higher than his numbers last year in Springfield. That’s 10% over league average. His nB% (Walks – intentional walks + HBPs) was 10.3% which was right on his number from Springfield last year.
His numbers overall were still inflated because of a high HR rate. He allowed more fly balls this year, but he also allowed many fewer line drives. (Line drives being the most successful batted ball type.)
Shelby Miller has yet to make his debut for the Cardinals, but it will most likely be over the next few days, and even in relief during the game this afternoon.
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I am not sure I agree. Not because I don’t have faith in Miller, but because the cards are blessed with some really good young pitching.
I think the cards should still pursue Loshe on a short term deal.
In all likelihood though, the cards will have one rotation spot open, possibly two (depending on carp).
Wainright
Garcia
Westbrooke
Carpenter
That is one rotation spot to be battled by Lynn, Miller, Kelly and Rosenthal. And those are the favorites. Their is always somebody that could surprise as well. Swagerty, Martinez, Gaviglio, Wacha…
I think with three, good young quality pitchers like lynn, kelly and rosenthal, it might have been best to leave him off for the time being…Unless, the cards think those guys are more bullpen than starters. Though I am not sure I quite agree with that.
Or possibly they plan on trading some of those young pitchers.
That’s the elephant in the room that no one seems to want to address. We are blessed with an abundance of quality pitching, and there aren’t enough spots. Someone has to be traded.
I keep thinking that a number of them will eventually be used to land a young, talented shortstop.
I don’t follow your logic.
We have
Wainwright
Garcia
Westbrook
Carpenter
and a surplus of good young pitching, leaving 1 spot for Lynn, Miller, Kelly, and Rosenthal to fill (possibly 2, if Carp isn’t back), and you still want to sign Lohse (we’d likely have to overpay in both years and dollars to get him)?
I’m all for tendering him the 1 year deal so that we get a draft pick if he leaves, but overpaying (which you’d almost certainly have to do) to get a mediocre pitcher like Lohse when you have a surplus of pitching makes no sense.
Your telling me that you would not take Loshe on a 2 year deal? Maybe he wants to stay. Who knows. We might not be able to sign him.
But its naive to assume we don’t need him. And that our young pitching is so great, we can pencil them in for for a top 5 cy young finish, and a top 5 ERA? Yeah, well I guess you don’t follow my logic if you consider that “Medicore”. I also think its overly optimistic to expect young pitchers to step in and be that good.
Its interesting to see that you see Lohse as Medicore based on what he did 8 years ago, and what what Miller did in the first half of last year as irrelevant.
Depends on the money for a two-year deal. I’d rather they spend it on an extension for Wainwright.
I’ve always liked Lohse, and if Westbrook wasn’t coming back, I’d defintely push for keeping him. But Lohse strikes me has being another Jeff Suppan–a decent pitcher coming off a good run with a team and gets vastly overpayed in free agency. Even with his 2.81 ERA this season, his career ERA is only 4.47. His ERA has been below 4.00 only three times in his 12-year career–this year, last year, and 2008. You’re going to be overpaying him for this year’s performance, when he’s not a Cy Young pitcher. He’s simply having a Cy Young season. Career seasons never make a pitcher.
It’s naive to think that Lohse is one of the best pitchers in baseball based on one season. It’s a better bet to allow one of four or five young strong pitching prospects to compete for one or two spots in the rotation and spend the money elsewhere to make a better team.
I see what you are saying, but the upside of Lohse is much, much higher than suppan.
Suppan was at best a middle of the rotation guy. Kyle Lohse has been one of the best pitchers in the NL.
I really don’t care how he pitched 7 years ago. I like trends and the last 3 healthy year trends, Lohse is trending up. Its not based on one season. In 2008, he threw 200 innings with a 3.78 ERA (front of the rotation numbers). Last year 188 innings with a 3.39 ERA, and this year top 5 ERA and around 200 innings.
I think Lohse can remain a top pitcher for the next 2 years.
I offer Lohse a 2 year deal, max 17 per year. Third year team option with low buy out, or qualified at 360 innings.
This is an affordable option for the cards, doesn’t handicap them for wainright, its short term so its assumable, and though it won’t be the best offer he gets, it will probably be in the ball park.
$17 million per year is actually not an affordable option for the Cardinals next year; that would put them over their ~$110mm budget, not including arb raises for Motte, Boggs, Freese, and all the minimum guys, plus no other FAs.
I don’t think this team needs to be spending in the FA market.
Loshe makes $12 this year. Its a $5 million increase.
The loss of berkman is a $12 million decrease.
Go look at Cot’s. Berkman’s loss is already eaten up by other raises. The Cards cannot afford $17million next year for Lohse (they shouldn’t pay that to Lohse anyway, but my point is that it’s not feasible even if they were inclined to pay him that much).
So you are saying if a team can expect a guy to put up a 3.5 ERA and 190 innings, they should pay 17 million for it?
Huh? What I’m saying is that your earlier assertion that paying $17mm/yr in 2013 for Lohse is “an affordable option” for the Cards is incorrect. Unless the Cards radically increase their player salary budget – and there’s no reason to expect that they would — the Cards don’t have that much money to pay Lohse, even if they wanted to. (I think it would be a terrible decision to pay that much to Lohse, but that is beside the point)
bc,
bc,
I agree with you on that point.
I just don’t think they radicly need to increase payroll.
Berkman off this year, Carp, Westbrooke, Furcal, Beltran all off after next year.
2013 is the tricky year. And I would start negotiations on wainright this summer….So if they get wainright locked up this summer, then probably not. But if Wainright wants to test free agency…
Alot could happen. $17 would be my walk a way point, not my offer.
Just curious, what would your walk away point be?
Too much money. He was a mid-rotation pitcher just last season, not just 7 years ago. $17 million is not affordable–it’s an ace’s salary.
You pay Lohse $17 million a year, then Wainwright is gone.
Really? Mid rotation just last year?
He threw nearly 190 innings with a 3.39 ERA.
Pretty high standard for just a “middle of the rotation” guy. When people talk about mid rotation, they usually don’t refer to the 1990′s Atlanta braves.
He was used third in the rotation last year by LaRussa and Duncan. Same thing for the playoff rotation. Last year, Chris Carpenter was the ace, with Jamie Garcia as the No. 2 pitcher. While Lohse had a lower ERA than those two, he also pitched fewer games and innings. His ERA put him 15th in the National League; his innings pitched put him at 31st. He was very good last year, but not a top 5 pitcher, not even by your measures.
By point of comparison, his stats were relatively close to Wandy Rodríguez, who pitched 191.0 innings and finished with a 3.82 ERA. Before the 2011 season, the Astros awarded Rodriquez a three-year contract that is universally accepted as an overpayment, so much so that it stood in the way of possible trade deals and eventually led the Astros to send the Pirates $17 million to off-set the contract cost.
That contract? $34 million, or average per year value $11.3 million (it was actually 7.5, 10, and 13 million a year). You want to pay Kyle Lohse $17 million a year. Lohse is far closer to Rodriquez than to Lincecum.
Lohse ran out of gas at the end of the year last year.
If the cards make the playoffs this year, is he really our 3rd best starter?
Now if the wheels fall off this year, it would be a valid point.
Loshe is top 5 in ERA. How is that remotely close to Wandy? I really don’t remember people saying Wandy was that much of an overpay, but I did hear people say Wainright was.
“Lohse ran out of gas at the end of the year last year.”
This is a reason to pay a guy $17M a year?
Richard,
It depends. Lets see how this year ends up. If he repeats last year, then no. You move on.
But if he dominates down the stretch and in the playoffs, then yes.
This year, this year, this year, this year. For the last time, Lohse is having a career year, far better than any of his other seasons, up to and including last season. Again, career years do not make the pitcher. See Denny Neagle below. The one year he had a 2.98 ERA was the only year; he was not the same pitcher before or after that. You’re trying to pay Lohse like he’s been a Cy Young pitcher year in and year out. He’s not, nor has he never been (for clarity, since you seem to have an issue with that: *year in, year out*). If you’re going to hand a pitcher a multi-year contract, even if it’s only for two seasons, you have to look beyond the career year. For 33 year old pitchers, history and performance counts far more than trends and potential.
And running out of gas while pitching 188 innings? How does that make him a top 5 league pitcher?
On Wandy…go back and read my post. You can’t complain about me putting words in your mouth when you don’t even bother to do that. I was comparing Wandy and Lohse’s stats from 2011, not this year. Wandy was 18th to Lohse’s 15th in ERA and was 30th to Lohse’s 31st in innings pitched. The entire post was in response to your criticism about my labeling Lohse’s 2011 as a mid-rotation starter, and that was what I was discussing. Yes, Lohse was a very good pitcher last year, but his makeup and performance is of an excellent mid-rotation starter, a guy like Edwin Jackson. There’s nothing wrong with that; I just don’t see how it’s worth an ace’s contract, closer to Tim Lincecum, who has been a top 5 pitcher year in and year out, than to Wandy’s overpayment (see, for example: http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2012/7/17/3165049/houston-astros-trade-rumors-detroit-tigers-wandy-rodriguez-contract-mlb-2012; also note that the Astros had to eat $17 million of that contract in order to finally trade him. His stats this year are close to Lohse’s stats last year).
Wainwright was overpaid? Really? How? It was a four-year contract whose guaranteed years were $687,500, $2.787 million, $4.837 million, and $6.687 million, plus two option years of $9 million and $12 million. He got that contract at age 25 after pitching 202.7 innings in 32 games with an ERA of 3.70 (not to mention serving as the team’s World Series-winning closer in his rookie year a couple of seasons before). How was locking up a talented starting pitcher who showed he could produce at the major league to a team-friendly contract an overpayment?
This year, this year, this year.
Of course this year. Why ignore it. I am not like you.
I am trying to paint Cyle Lohse as a Cy young pitcher year in and year out? Really, because I have said plenty of times he is simply a front end starter. Once again, you making up points (then accusing me of the same).
I think certain types of pitchers can pitch very well through 34 and 35. And I think Loshe is in that mold.
I think running out of gas is an issue of endurance and not pitching in 2 years. He had a great september in 08. And this year a 1.4 ERA in august. IF he fades this year, its a non issue. better to move on. But if he holds up, its more evidence to support it.
Just like Wainright this year. I would not be suprised if he fades. It is probably becasue of the year off. I would not hold it against him.
Again, how is a 2 year, $17 million an ace contract? And Lincicum’s issue is not the contract, but the performance. And if he was on the open market, he would get more than that. Its an apples to oranges comparison.
I don’t concider Wainright an overpay. Just saying crticism at the time. I also don’t concider Garcia to be an overpay.
“Of course this year. Why ignore it. I am not like you.”
He’s not ignoring it. However, he’s not ignoring Lohse’s other years either. Why are you ignoring his other years?
And before you go comparing the Cardinals’ rotation to the 1990s Braves’ you should go take a look at those stats. Kyle Lohse is not the top rotation workhorse thos guys were.
Third Pitchers by Innings Pitched:
1992–Tom Glavine, 2.76 ERA, 225 innings
1993–Tom Glavine, 3.20 ERA, 239.1 innings
1995–John Smoltz, 3.18 ERA, 192.2 innings
1996–Tom Glavine, 2.98 ERA, 235,1 innings
1997–Denny Neagle, 2.97 ERA, 233.1 innings
1998–Denny Neagle, 3.55 ERA, 210.1 innings
Nice job covering your point by making it look like I said something I didn’t.
What you wrote: Pretty high standard for just a “middle of the rotation” guy. When people talk about mid rotation, they usually don’t refer to the 1990′s Atlanta braves.
So, zuke, what where you trying to say with this?
Lohse was the third starter in the Cardinals rotation last year. I called him a midrotation starter. You listed Lohse’s stats from last year and snidely brought up the 1990s Atlanta Braves’ rotation, apparently implying that Lohse is only a midrotation starter on that kind of staff. I listed the stats Braves’ third starters from that staff as a rebuttal to that point. How was I making it look like you said something you didn’t?
Forsh,
What you are saying is you cherry pick stats to try and make an undefendable point. Got it.
You call him a “midrotation starter” because he was the third starter last year?….In that case, do you consider him an ace since he is an ace this year?
And to further illustrate my point. 190 innings…3.39 ERA….Yeah, fits into the middle pf a mid 90s braves rotation.
So which is it Forshe? You can’t have it both ways. You can’s say his middle rotation because that is where the cards used him last year…then ignore this year.
Or is it possible that I am right. That he is neither an ace or middle of the rotation, but rather somewhere in between?
To add to that…Last January, the Giants handed two-time Cy Young award winner and constant ace Tim Lincecum a two-year deal that paid him $18 million the first year and $22 million the second. Kyle Lohse is not and never has been Tim Lincecum, not even this year. He’s not the best pitcher in the National League.
$17 million a year is a big overpayment for Lohse, and something the Cardinals should never do.
I have no idea what you mean with this.
So the cards should not try to resign Adam Wainright? Since that criteria applies to him as well?
To repeat what I wrote: Kyle Lohse is not and never has been Tim Lincecum, not even this year. He’s not the best pitcher in the National League.
The Cardinals should send your $17 million to Wainwright, not Lohse. THAT’s my point.
And that is a relevant point.
You get so caught up in a needless bashing of Lohse and inventing arguments
you forget to make a point. Nobody said he is the best pitcher. And $17 million isn’t close to the top pitcher contracts.
I happen to think its possible for the cards to sign both. If you think a 2 year deal prevents that than I agree with focusing on Lohse that I agree with you.
If they can’t get the loshe deal done, so be it. I am the same way with Pujols. Once the numbers got out of hand so be it. I didn’t feel the need to try and figure out why Pujols wasn’t that good. Nor do I feel the need to justify that Loshe isn
“And $17 million isn’t close to the top pitcher contracts.”
Actually it is, as Forsch showed. Lincecum received a “top pitcher contract”. He’s going to average $20M a year. Maybe to you, $17M “isn’t close” to $20M, but to the rest of us, it is.
Richard,
Why when discussing “top tier” pitching contracts use a player who never reached free agency as an example? But if you go that route, then why not cole hammels contract? Why ignore his contract and focus on Linci?
Do you really think 2 year deals are common in free agency? Lincecum never received a top tier contract? when is 2 years top tier? This is important because contracts are guaranteed.
And at 20 million over 2 years, that is still 6 million more. Yes. That is a lot. And extra $3 million for pay roll for 2 years is big.
Cole hammels got 144 million. That is top tier money. That is 110 million more.
But lests look at free agents:
Yu Darvish got $60 million (not including negotiating cost). That is 26 million more.
CJ Wilson got 77 million, that is 43 million more.
So no, $34 million is no where near top tier money. And it doesn’t matter how many arbitration eligible players you want to use as an example.
WHEN DID I BASH LOHSE?!
I even said that I really like Lohse. For someone accusing me of putting words in your mouth, you got some gall.
You also said some incredibly false things:
*You’ve* been saying he’s a top 5 league pitcher, and in one of your above posts, you say this: “I think Lohse can remain a top pitcher for the next 2 years.”
“Nobody said he is the best pitcher. And $17 million isn’t close to the top pitcher contracts.”
Only four contracts in the National League paid out a higher number this year than your proposal: Johan Santana at $24 million Cliff Lee at $21.5 million, Roy Halladay at $20 million, and Tim Lincecum at $18 million. Every other starting pitcher in the league was less. Only three contracts in the American League are higher: C.C. Sabathia at $23 million, Justin Verlander at $20 million, and Felix Hernandez at $18.5 million. Jake Peavy is at $17 million. Other top pitching contracts: Jered Weaver (14), Josh Beckett (15.75), Cole Hamels (15), Tim Hudson (9), Gio Gonzalez (3.25), Chris Carpenter (15), Zack Greinke (13.5).
You like him, but call him just a middle of the rotation guy.
The flip flopping makes it difficult to debate with you.
Loshe is a top 5 league pitcher. He is currently 4th in the league in ERA. Are you saying he is not one of the top 5 best pitchers in the league this year? How is this false?
Over the last 3 healthy years, he averages 190 innings and 3.3 ERA. I, as well as most fans, consider this fine numbers for a number 1A or number 2 starter. That is front of the rotation numbers.
When I say I think he can put up similar numbers over the next 2 years is not a fact. It is my opinion that you I can neither prove, nor you disprove.
And Forshe, here I got you cherry picking again. First, lets see what happens this off season. Becasue that is when the offer is made and a new crop of free agents raises the bar.
Its a short term deal. Short terms have a bit higher annual value because it doesn’t have a long length. Funny how you once again cheery pick an irrelevant point and ignore the obvious. So why focus on only the higher annual value and ignore the overall contract value, which is the whole point of doing it that way.
Let me phrase it this way.
Say the cards did retain loshe for 17 million.
in 2013 he throws 210 innings and gives a 3.2 ERA
in 2014 he thrwos 185 innings and gives a 3.6 ERA
Would you be satisfied with those numbers?
Zuke:
Those numbers would be OK for $34M/2years. However, I have no confidence that a guy in his mid-30′s who has _never_ had a xFIP below 4.00 will put up those numbers over the next 2 years.
Richard,
Its generally accepted that FIP is not as accurate for strike throwing ground ball pitchers.
For instance, you say You don’t think he can post those numbers because his XFIP is over 4. But yet, he has managed to do so the last 3 healthy years.
Pitching is actually pretty simple. And Lohse keeps it simple. Don’t walk guys, get ahead in counts.
Sure he doesn’t strike many guys out, but he gets hitters behind in the count than most pitchers.
Zuke:
Why are you looking only at the years that he is healthy?
Are you guaranteeing that a pitcher in his mid-30′s won’t get injured again? Since 2002, Lohe’s ERA has been better than his xFIP 6 times and worse than his xFIP 5 times. Seems to me that xFIP actually predicts his true natural ability (including his true natural ability when injured) pretty well.
Seems much more likely that you have fallen prey to the recency effect and luck than that Lohse has suddenly become a true sub-4.00 pitcher. You’re probably the kind of guy who buys the market when it goes up and sold stocks in 2009.
I use the last 3 healthy years because more recent data is the most relevant data.
I also picked the last 3 healthy years because the injury was a fluke injury and not a structural one.
I have no gurentee, which is why I would not go longer than 2 years guaranteed.
You say he has been below 5 times and above 6 times…But what about the last 3 years?
again, their are certain types of pitchers that don’t fit the xFIP mold. There are pitchers who also tend to stay around longer. Call it the Buehrle Factor.
There is no such thing as luck. People use the term luck to explain statistical inconstantancy because they don’t understand standard deviation and bell theory. The problem with fip is assumes there is no skill in pitching. Dave Duncan taught us different. Check out fangraphs to find out the key to his success. HE isn’t lucky. He increased his 1st pitch strike rate from the low 60s and 50s, to nearly 70%. Across the board better command, better pitching and more strikes. This isn’t luck.
And also, when has there really ever been an instance when a team had too much pitching.
I’m telling you that I would not _overpay_ for Lohse on a 2 year deal. In other words, a 2-year deal at $10M a year for Lohse is OK. A 2 year deal at $17M per year is overpaying, and that money can be put to far better use elsewhere. It is not naive to think that that we don’t need him. It is naive to throw money away by overpaying when we can spend that money better elsewhere on greater needs.
Also, yes, Lohse is MEDIOCRE (not Medicore). Comparing him to Shelby Miller is asinine, as Shelby is young & improving with a much higher ceiling while Lohse, if anything, is in his decline phase. I hope you understand that when you make such an argument, you either assume I’m ignorant and/or stupid or else you are (one or both).
I hope you understand that by calling me names does nothing to further your point.
I get that some might think the money might be better spent else where. That is a good point. In fact its such a good point that it doesn’t really need justification.
Over the last 3 healthy years, Loshe has averaged a 3.4 ERA and 196 IP. In what league on this planet would that be considered “Mediocre”? Those are actually pretty similar to Johnny Cueto, who I am assuming you really don’t consider to be “Medicore”. A Wussy-soccer player maybe, but hardly medicore.
What is a fact is that right now Lohse is pitching the best in his career. He is putting up top of the rotation type numbers. He gives you innings with a low ERA. This year he has pitched like an ace.
I think it is reasonable to expect an ERA around 3.5 and 190 innings the next 2 years. And on a short term deal, I do concider $17 million to be worth that. And I also think its unfair to expect a young pitcher to reproduce similar numbers. Possible, but unfair to do so. And unfair to do to a guy who took some lumps in AAA this year.
I would much rather have a good pitching Kyle Lohse and kicking ourselves for signing him and getting success on the field than letting him go and then needing him. And if he gets injured or flops, it hurs to write off the expense but the cards have the pieces to then step in and perfrom.
The Kyle Lohse who showed up in Pittsburgh and Washington is closer to the pitcher he is than the guy who was Maddux-ing his way through the league. Lohse is not a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher and going forward he’s probably not even a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher. He’s allowing a career high in line drives and it’s starting to catch up to him.
He’s not anywhere close to being worth $17 million going forward, let alone the $12-13 he’ll get.
Showed up in Pittsburg? The 2 runs he gave up?
I take it from this logic you are not a fan of resigning Wainright, considering his last 2 games.
There is no chance Lohse signs a short-term deal. Period.
I would not say no chance. I would say slight chance.
Perhaps if Lohse has an experience similar to Edwin Jackson this past offseason.
I don’t see that happening. He is too old. He did the rebid year his first year with the cards.
However, I don’t see the bidding getting out of hand. Edwin Jackson is an example of how unpredictable that second tier pitching market is.
Greinke sets the pace. Did Sheilds get locked up? I also think Jackson will be a top bidder as well.
Lohse is underrated. And I put him in a category with Peavy and Dempster.
Because of his age and competition, i really don’t see him commanding high dollar multi-year deal. I see him topping out at 4 year/$50 million. I think a cards offer of 2 year/$34 being attractive as well.
Marcum is a wild card.
Lohse is coming off a much better year than jackson, and I think their is a bigger demand for pitching this year with a couple big names getting locked up recently.
Zuke not trying to be hard on you but I don’t think there is anyway that lohse signs a 1-2 year deal for a significant discount to stay with us, especially as a boras client. It just won’t happen. And how you can’t gaurentee equal performance from say Miller or Rosenthal, a lot of highly touted pitching / rookie prospects have broken onto the scene and dont well (Moore, Bumgarner, Price, strasburg) just to name a few
Maybe not MUCH better year than jackson but a little better, Although similar.
CJ,
But I don’t get where you are assuming he gets these really big offers.
Yes, Lohse is having a better year. But Jackson is 3 years younger.
Loshe will be 34 next season. Do you see lots of teams really interested in signing him to a 4 year deal? You also have Peavy in the mix as well.
If you are going to offer a 4 year deal, would it probably make more sense to offer it to Jackson? Get Jackson at 29-32 instead of Lohse 34-38?
Lohse has been overlooked by the baseball community for years. I don’t all of a sudden see a bidding war for his services.
A lot of young pitchers have broken in and not done well. And its not like you are never going to use these guys, there are still opportunities. We don’t know about carp and his contract is up after next year. Westbrooke is gone after this year as well. We may not even be able to resign wainwright.
Its not like I am saying never use the young guys, I am just saying what is the rush. In a perfect Scenario…
2013
Wainwright
Lohse
Garcia
Carp/Miller
Westbrooke
2014
Wainright (resigned)
Loshe
Garcia
Miller
Lynn
2015
Wainright
Garcia
Miller
Lynn
Kelly
Good point RCH. the question is who to move and for what (think SS).
I am not convinced that we trade any of the really, really promising guys. Look at Altanta. They seem to always have awesome arms stockpiled in their system, but they still have to go out and get pitchers. Guys get hurt. They struggle. There are no guarantees with any of these guys. Lynn just got demoted to the pen, and Kelly has been good but certainly not an all star.
I think Shelby will be the fifth starter next year if he has a good spring. Kelly and Rosenthal will go to the pen with Boggs, Motte, Salas, and Mujica. (7 man pen: Motte, Boggs, Mujica, Salas, Kelly, Rosie, Rzycp…maybe Freeman over Salas). I could see Lynn possibly being traded if he doesn’t improve his conditioning. If he does, then he might go to the pen and Rosie will go to Memphis. Of course Lynn could take the 5 spot and put Miller in the pen or waiting in Memphis.
THat leave good protecition if Carp gets hurt, Garcia is hurt again, and if Westbrook struggles. Plus, Rosie has not had a full season in Memphis yet.
The problem with trading one of these guys is that I don’t see a reasonable target. Kinsler? kind of expensive, and I think they would prefer Wong.
Further, keeping these guys is Wagonmaker insurance. Maybe we save 23M a year by letting him go. At that point, we are looking at Garcia, Lynn, Rosie, Shelby, Kelly, Wacha, and maybe a cheaper FA in the rotation. That frees us a lot of money to spend on a premium position player, or maybe two cheaper FA pitchers.
Of course, thinknig about 2014 is pretty speculative. 2013 does look good though. You have to assume our rotation and bullpen will be strong. We have Berkman/Lohse money to possibly add a player, plus Adams and maybe even Taveras coming up….
Hope the length didn’t annoy you!
I like the length! Good points! If the club keeps both Miller and Rosenthal, I wouldn’t expect either one to return to Memphis. I also wouldn’t assume that Miller hops back over Rosenthal. Miller is the favorite of most in the community, but the Club’s actions would seem to indicate Rosenthal is currently ahead on the internal depth chart. Obviously, that can change, but I’m not sure you can assume that it will.
Dont confuse depth chart with prospect rankings. Just because a player is closer to being ready today and thus higher on the depth chart doesn’t mean a team necessarily thinks he is a better prospect.
I don’t confuse the two…..I have never been convinced that Miller is the better prospect in the Club’s eyes since mid year last year – the reasons have been discussed. In fact, we now know that Miller was available prior to the trade deadline. You don’t offer your “best” pitching prospect. That should confirm it for you. None of that means that Miller won’t end up the “Ace” we all hope he will be or that Rosenthal won’t end up a bullpen pitcher.
we “know” ? Even if we did (which we dont) we also dont know if Rosenthal was offered up at ome point. i can show you plenty of examples of teams trading their bet pitching prospect (not just supposedly offering). I see nothing in the club’s actions that would tell me they think Rosenthal is a better prospect than Miller. I saw plenty to show that they thought he was more ready.
As reported in the P-D, unnamed sources, probably a rumor, etc. but generally where there is smoke, there is fire – so yeah, I believe it. Do we KNOW? No. And no, I still don’t see the Cards offering up their “best” pitching prospect no matter what other Clubs have done – but it’s just my opinion.
I think the club has made it pretty clear they see Miller as their top pitching prospect. doesn’t mean They aren’t high on Rosie too
This has been touched on a little, while we only have on spot next year we will do not have Carp. signed for 2014. They may not resign Westbrook either, that could open up two more spots. I like that we may be able to stager the young guns in over a couple of years just so that we may not have to go thourgh growing pains that may happen with new pitchers all at once. And like it has been said there is room in the bullpin and they may not all pan out…… I hope not.
It’s easier for me to say what we need vs. who to move. Shortstop is clearly need #1. To get said shortstop, we will have to give up one of the golden boys IMO – Miller or Rosenthal. Kelly is damn good, but I’m not sure he is viewed with the same upside. A deal with Kelly might require another throw in – Jenkins? Jenkins has upside but has a ways to go. We are so loaded would we really miss Jenkins at this point? I would prefer the Kelly option if we can find a taker. If it comes down to Miller or Rosenthal, that is a tough one. I think Rosie is still underrated by our prospect watcher community at large. He has a bigger fastball than Miller (even with his velocity comeback), he has a better mental toughness history to date, and I personally think his curve is a knee buckler. Rosie’s groundball rate is better, BB rate worse and SO rate is worse, and Miller has a higher HR rate – but that may be splitting hairs. Nothing to base it on, but I think Rosenthal will throw more innings in his career than Miller. Tough call to say the least – glad I’m not making it.
Damn, Miller comes out dealin’!!! 4 SO’s in 2 IP, only one groundball hit. So much for the idea he might not be able to keep up his K rate. Wow. Small sample size, but still can’t debut much better than that!
Yeah he was pretty impressive.
showed that plus plus fastball that had a lot of life and late movement. Just to add Miller’s delivery is so smooth that you can eat off it.
Yup…I have been asked what velocity would be considered plus for a fastball and I always have to explain that velocity is just one part of it. Kids with plus fastballs are going to get a lot of swings and misses, a lot of foul balls, a lot of looking strikes. Shelby had the plus plus pitch going that second inning of work.
His change looked above average to plus today. Even the biggest Shelby boosters have called his change a 40.
For SS, we have Greg Garcia. I don’t want to deal any of our young arms for a veteran mediocrity at the cornerstone who hits below league-average.
I’m not entirely sold on Greg Garcia being an everyday player. Garcia has the ability to get on base at an extremley high rate because of that incredible plate disipline and hand eye coordintation if he could hit for more power potential he could be an everyday player but defensively is a question mark with the lack of range at SS. Long term Garcia fits well as a utility option. Garcia seems to project as a Daniel Descalso type with more power.
So does that mean you are not sold on Wong either since his ISO is less than Garcia’s?
I am not sold as yet on Wong because he plays only one position = 2B. It seems that most of the recent STL second basemen could also play a little SS or 3B. (In Skip’s case, he plays the OF and 2B.)
I don’t know if Wong played a position other that 2B in college or not. Greg Garcia’s fielding % as a 2B is better than Wong’s. Is Wong’s bat strong enough that he gets a major league roster spot only able to play 2B? Time will tell!
Wong…Was blocked at SS by Greg Garcia at Hawaii as well.
I am guessing he was probably good enough to play at least a passable SS in college.
I am not so worried about the ability to play ss. If you can play second, that is all i really care about.
Heck, even skipped showed if you get decent offensive potential out of second your are fine.
Wong played CF in college i believe. I don’t know how good he was in the outfield, but he could possibly a fifth/sixth OF if needed.
Pretty sure Wong only played OF his freshman year.
He was a freshman all-American as an outfielder (Sam Gaviglio was 2nd team), but by his junior year was all-American at second base. (Super-trivial note: Seth Maness was a freshman AA for East Carolina the year before, in 2008.)
Scouts’ consensus before and after he was drafted seems to be that he’s a good-to-very good 2nd baseman. I don’t see a need to move him anywhere else.
I’m not sold on Either being a MLB starter yet.
Well, Garcia both gets on base more and hits for more power than Descalso, and thus that would make him a middle IF starter. Even if he would be in the lower range defensively, his bat would be above-average for the middle IF. There’s a reason why Skippy would be worth over 2 WAR as a 2B if he played full time, and I’m quite certain Garcia isn’t as atroicious as Schumaker with the glove. In fact, I’m not convinced that he’s bad defensively at all. If you look at his assist numbers, he does far better than Ryan Jackson, who’s seen by everyone as a plus-gloveman. So if Garcia doesn’t have any range, how does he produce all those assists?
Shelby was painting some corners. I know 2 K’s were looking on fastballs just below the knees on the outside corner. He looked like what you wanna see when one of your top guys makes a debut. Kudos Mr. Miller
They will keep whoever sells more shirts. :)
Kudos to miller he is learning to compete and trust his stuff.
why does Ryan Jackson just seem to get dismissed. We will have proven bats at the major league level in Holliday, Craig, Freese, Tavares, Molina, Jay, and probably Wong. That’s a pretty good bat at every fiel position except ss. Imo defense should rule the day here and Jackson is more than capable. Plus, I think it may take a year give or take, but he’ll end up and acceptable bat.
Because glove first SS are not that hard to find. Heck, Cezar Izturus still has a job and Ronny Cedeno still bounces around.
I think he is a nice luxury to have if nothing else happens, but I would not let his glove prevent me from looking elsewhere.
I think Jackson got a little overhyped. dono if he can be an everyday SS
The key and why Jackson is fine is his cost. I wouldn’t let it stop me from looking either, but I wouldn’t give up one of our top 5 or 6 pitchers to get slightly better. My understanding is Jackson isn’t just a glove first ss also, he’s a potential gg ss.
i think the fact that Cezar is still around shows you they are a little hard to find. Why bring him back at several million a year if cost controlled guys are coming up all the time.
Nobody wants him back. It was just an example of finding a value for JAckson.
Czar is still around becasue he plays good defense. There are others.
The fact that the sign low, 1 year deals shows that they are not so hard to find.
Also, maybe the cards keep their young pitchers and move Garcia.
Why do they have to move any of their prospects?
The don’t have to move anybody.
But if they do want to make a trade, they will deal from a position of strength.
For instance, to acquire a shortstop.
SS is a weakness in depth in the organization. You can never have too much pitching…
Agreed. If they are able to maintain a low cost starting rotation, they could buy a shortstop. Problem is, who is coming available soon that will not be retained….
Get SS have to be traded for. By the time they reach free agency, you have to overpay for value and can usually not hold up to the length of the contract.
. . .or developed.
Zuke354,
In your previous comments about Lohse and Wainright, you claimed that you would sign Lohse to a 2 year deal worth 17 mil PER year with an option for a third year. You also claimed that there was sentiment that Waino was being overpaid. According to you, Lohse should be signed to a 2 year deal for $34 mil with a third year option, making the deal worth up to $51 mil. You also, have backtracked during your rants about what Lohse should be paid.
Honestly, I don’t think Lohse gets $17 mil per year in free agency. I think the Cards will let him go because he will command a 4 year contract in free agency and his price will be too high for the Cards (I could see 4 years, $60 mil as a possibility in free agency). Also, the Cards do not need him. They have Lynn and Kelly with big league starting experience and Rosenthal and Miller, who seem likely to surpass them on the depth chart. I could even see Westbrook losing his rotation spot. It would be nice to see a trade of a starting pitcher for a shortstop, but the likelihood of that happening seems to be slim. Barring a trade, I do not see them adding a starter or keeping Lohse.
At the beginning of the season, when no one expected Waino to make an immediate comeback to star status, his contract was universally considered a steal for the Cards. I think (and would like to see) the Cards will extend Waino this winter, and, hopefully, they can do it at a discounted rate. By that, I mean for under 20 mil per season. That is my optimistic point of view.
In an ideal world, the Cars rotation would look like this:
Carp
Waino
Garcia
Miller
Rosenthal/Kelly
I think Lynn eventually gets relegated to bullpen, along with Westbrook.
I would also love to see them trade for Andrus (who the Rangers should not trade but has been rumored to be available), but I don’t believe the Cards would trade Taveres/Miller/Rosenthal/Kelly making a deal seem highly unlikely. Either way, with Furcal being old and having an uncertain status, shortstop should be the offseason priority.
David,
Actually, that is not correct assessment of my point. I am not sure what back tracking you are discussing. I said I would be willing to go as high as $17 million per year on Lohse. At $17 million, I want a team option with no buy out. At a lower rate I would offer an automatic qualifier. I would not do a flat out 3 year deal for lohse. There are other who were trying to put attribute innacurate opinions to me because I guess I made good points that they couldn’t argue against.
I agree about free agency. I also don’t really know what Lohse will go for on the market. He is tough to predict. They may not even need to go that high. I tend to assign free agent values based on what people are worth, not what market dictates.
Your point sums up my frustrations. IF its about committing money, its one thing. But you say the cards don’t need him. I think that is overly optimistic. How can any team ever say they don’t need a good starting pitcher? Shelby can’t give a full good year in AAA and yet we don’t need Kyle Lohse? Me, I would rather have him and not need him that need him and not have him. That way, if everything does work out perfectly, then you have an issue of too much good starting pitching. But realistically, when does that really happen? And in such a rare case, you can actually slow Miller/rosental arbitration time and have a successful major league. In my entire life of following baseball, I have never heard of a situation where you don’t need a good pitcher. So you end up with 2 good years of Lohse and delay Miller’s clock a year. So if Miller does become that ace, we have him for a year in his prime.
Your missing the point on the Wainright contract. When he first was given that contract, it was criticized. So was Pujol’s contract actually for that matter. The cards don’t penny pinch arbitration like other teams, but rather use it as a negotiating tactic. The only reason I brought it up was in rebuttle as if crticics are always right.
I agree that short stop is a priority. I would settle for just an ok/good shortstop. I would be happy with an eckstein type. Solid and good .obp. For me good .obp is .350 or more. I would use him in a top of the order spot.
“I agree that short stop is a priority. I would settle for just an ok/good shortstop. I would be happy with an eckstein type. Solid and good .obp. For me good .obp is .350 or more. I would use him in a top of the order spot.”
Sounds like Greg Garcia.
I hope so.
While I appreciate Kyle Lohse’s contribution this year and last — but not his ’09 or ’10 efforts, at all — I think the notion of retaining Kyle versus not…well, I’m not confident, zuke, that you’ve thunk it all the way through, sir.
Let’s accept for the time being the premise that Lohse will be at his near-best next year, and even the following year, to boot.
Would you, should *we* as Redbird fans (Timeout! Giants score a pair on the Scutaro single! Now 4-2, favor San Fran.) prefer Lohse at $17M, or even, say $12M, if he’s gonna post a sturdy 3.50 ERA over 190 innings…to one of the “kids” (Lynn or Kelly or Miller or Rosie) having a 4.20 ERA for 175 frames?
Ya see, we’re talking about a difference of perhaps 1 1/2 games in the victory column — for an humongous premium.
As for me, I’d much rather take the cheapie, even though he’s *likely* to be less effective. Why? Because the organization can therefore apply your “Lohse money” (whether 10, 13, or 17 million bucks) to other more pressing needs.
I have thought it through.
You see I am a cardinal fan without Bias. If they win with veterans great. If they win with rookies great. I don’t care either way as long as they win.
I think what you asked is an obvious question. Would I take Lohse at 12-17M with a 3.5 ERA for 190 innings? The answer is you bet.
Why on earth would you prefer 4.2 ERA in 175 over 3.5 over 190? To me, that makes no sense.
The issue that hasn’t been mentioned as much is that Lohse probably nets a draft pick. Now as much as I love picks, I think the cards are good enough to win a world series and should stick to the win now and not play for the future.
Because with $17m you might be able to upgrade at a different position. Not saying there’s an obvious alternative, but
if
[Free Agent] = Furcal + A
and
Kyle Lohse = Miller/Rosenthal/Kelly + B
and
A > B
and
[Free Agent] $17 million for Lohse.
Zuke, you ask me, Why on earth would I prefer a 4.20 ERA over 175 innings, to a 3.50 ERA over 190 innings?
Because in the scenerio provided above, the Cardinals would be paying a crapload of money (perhaps as much as $17,000,000) for the 3.50 ERA pitcher…versus paying next to *nothing* for the 4.20 ERA pitcher.
Is a 4.20 ERA too ambitious an expectation for one of the young, dirtcheap starters? Well, this year Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly have combined for 39 starts & 7 relief appearances, for a total of 240 innings and an ERA of roughly 3.85.
So then you take the “Lohse money” and spread it around to current Redbirds, and maybe a free agent LOOGY (though I’d prefer the club just scrap the Two Southpaw Imperative, and go with six really good righties plus Rzep).
By the way, the career ERA+ for Jeff Suppan? Exactly the same as Kyle Lohse, at 97.