Because in the scenerio provided above, the Cardinals would be paying a crapload of money (perhaps as much as $17,000,000) for the 3.50 ERA pitcher…versus paying next to *nothing* for the 4.20 ERA pitcher.

Is a 4.20 ERA too ambitious an expectation for one of the young, dirtcheap starters? Well, this year Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly have combined for 39 starts & 7 relief appearances, for a total of 240 innings and an ERA of roughly 3.85.

So then you take the “Lohse money” and spread it around to current Redbirds, and maybe a free agent LOOGY (though I’d prefer the club just scrap the Two Southpaw Imperative, and go with six really good righties plus Rzep).

By the way, the career ERA+ for Jeff Suppan? Exactly the same as Kyle Lohse, at 97.

if
[Free Agent] = Furcal + A
and
Kyle Lohse = Miller/Rosenthal/Kelly + B
and
A > B
and
[Free Agent] $17 million for Lohse.

You see I am a cardinal fan without Bias. If they win with veterans great. If they win with rookies great. I don’t care either way as long as they win.

I think what you asked is an obvious question. Would I take Lohse at 12-17M with a 3.5 ERA for 190 innings? The answer is you bet.

Why on earth would you prefer 4.2 ERA in 175 over 3.5 over 190? To me, that makes no sense.

The issue that hasn’t been mentioned as much is that Lohse probably nets a draft pick. Now as much as I love picks, I think the cards are good enough to win a world series and should stick to the win now and not play for the future.

Let’s accept for the time being the premise that Lohse will be at his near-best next year, and even the following year, to boot.

Would you, should *we* as Redbird fans (Timeout! Giants score a pair on the Scutaro single! Now 4-2, favor San Fran.) prefer Lohse at $17M, or even, say $12M, if he’s gonna post a sturdy 3.50 ERA over 190 innings…to one of the “kids” (Lynn or Kelly or Miller or Rosie) having a 4.20 ERA for 175 frames?

Ya see, we’re talking about a difference of perhaps 1 1/2 games in the victory column — for an humongous premium.

As for me, I’d much rather take the cheapie, even though he’s *likely* to be less effective. Why? Because the organization can therefore apply your “Lohse money” (whether 10, 13, or 17 million bucks) to other more pressing needs.

I also picked the last 3 healthy years because the injury was a fluke injury and not a structural one.

I have no gurentee, which is why I would not go longer than 2 years guaranteed.

You say he has been below 5 times and above 6 times…But what about the last 3 years?

again, their are certain types of pitchers that don’t fit the xFIP mold. There are pitchers who also tend to stay around longer. Call it the Buehrle Factor.

There is no such thing as luck. People use the term luck to explain statistical inconstantancy because they don’t understand standard deviation and bell theory. The problem with fip is assumes there is no skill in pitching. Dave Duncan taught us different. Check out fangraphs to find out the key to his success. HE isn’t lucky. He increased his 1st pitch strike rate from the low 60s and 50s, to nearly 70%. Across the board better command, better pitching and more strikes. This isn’t luck.

Sounds like Greg Garcia.

Why are you looking only at the years that he is healthy?

Are you guaranteeing that a pitcher in his mid-30′s won’t get injured again? Since 2002, Lohe’s ERA has been better than his xFIP 6 times and worse than his xFIP 5 times. Seems to me that xFIP actually predicts his true natural ability (including his true natural ability when injured) pretty well.

Seems much more likely that you have fallen prey to the recency effect and luck than that Lohse has suddenly become a true sub-4.00 pitcher. You’re probably the kind of guy who buys the market when it goes up and sold stocks in 2009.

Actually, that is not correct assessment of my point. I am not sure what back tracking you are discussing. I said I would be willing to go as high as $17 million per year on Lohse. At $17 million, I want a team option with no buy out. At a lower rate I would offer an automatic qualifier. I would not do a flat out 3 year deal for lohse. There are other who were trying to put attribute innacurate opinions to me because I guess I made good points that they couldn’t argue against.

I agree about free agency. I also don’t really know what Lohse will go for on the market. He is tough to predict. They may not even need to go that high. I tend to assign free agent values based on what people are worth, not what market dictates.

Your point sums up my frustrations. IF its about committing money, its one thing. But you say the cards don’t need him. I think that is overly optimistic. How can any team ever say they don’t need a good starting pitcher? Shelby can’t give a full good year in AAA and yet we don’t need Kyle Lohse? Me, I would rather have him and not need him that need him and not have him. That way, if everything does work out perfectly, then you have an issue of too much good starting pitching. But realistically, when does that really happen? And in such a rare case, you can actually slow Miller/rosental arbitration time and have a successful major league. In my entire life of following baseball, I have never heard of a situation where you don’t need a good pitcher. So you end up with 2 good years of Lohse and delay Miller’s clock a year. So if Miller does become that ace, we have him for a year in his prime.

Your missing the point on the Wainright contract. When he first was given that contract, it was criticized. So was Pujol’s contract actually for that matter. The cards don’t penny pinch arbitration like other teams, but rather use it as a negotiating tactic. The only reason I brought it up was in rebuttle as if crticics are always right.

I agree that short stop is a priority. I would settle for just an ok/good shortstop. I would be happy with an eckstein type. Solid and good .obp. For me good .obp is .350 or more. I would use him in a top of the order spot.

Its generally accepted that FIP is not as accurate for strike throwing ground ball pitchers.

For instance, you say You don’t think he can post those numbers because his XFIP is over 4. But yet, he has managed to do so the last 3 healthy years.

Pitching is actually pretty simple. And Lohse keeps it simple. Don’t walk guys, get ahead in counts.

Sure he doesn’t strike many guys out, but he gets hitters behind in the count than most pitchers.