Comments on: Daily Farm Report – 9/7/12

By: bc

bc — Mon, 10 Sep 2012 03:08:16 +0000

The point is that no one is projecting 131 going forward. But you don’t need to for him to be a top CF. You could simply project him at his career numbers.

As for counting his recent hot streaks. Who cares? Every players’ numbers are composed of hot streaks and cold streaks. It’s completely unpersuasive to say that if you remove his best periods he’ll look worse. Of course he will! So will every other player.

By: giveml

giveml — Sun, 09 Sep 2012 23:10:29 +0000

All I am trying to say is that Jon Jay had about a thousand MLB PAs where his offensive profile as measured by wRC+ was most similar to Shane Victorino, BJ Upton, and Dexter Fowler. For the past month+ he is hitting .382/.453/.480/.993 with a BABIP of .447. To refer to him as one of the top CFs in ML baseball right now with a wRC+ of 131 highly values right now. If another MLB team wants to value him at that level and is willing to make a trade offer based on that valuation I think it would be very shrewd indeed to consider moving Jay. He is certainly the most valuable position player we have that has a ready replacement, especially with Adams injured.

The only CFs to perform at that level over the last three years are Josh Hamilton, Matt Kemp, and Andrew McCutcheon. Until his latest offensive tear Jay’s production looked a lot more ordinary. I am not ready to project that type of production from him (wRC+ = 131) going forward.

By: zuke354

zuke354 — Sun, 09 Sep 2012 22:54:18 +0000

Career year? At 27? In only his second season as a full time player?

By: bc

bc — Sun, 09 Sep 2012 20:22:38 +0000

There’s no reason to chop up the sample size (indeed, you should not). At his career numbers (118 wRC+, +9.4 UZR/150 in CF), he’s All-star quality. It’s not necessary to think he’s “turned a corner.”

By: giveml

giveml — Sun, 09 Sep 2012 18:46:30 +0000

I agree with what you are saying and I am not a Jay hater. Nevertheless, in his 800+ PA prior to this season his ML wRC+ was 112. His UZR/150s were 2.9 and 3.2 as opposed to this year’s 14.4. You just have to decide if he has elevated his game or if you think 2012 might constitute a “career year”. As recently as 8/5 his season OPS was in line with his prior year numbers. The only evidence he is a superior offensive player has been built in the last 30ish days.

He may have turned a corner like Yadi, but I would be more than happy to engage a trade partner who believes Jay to be an All-Star caliber player and see what they would offer. My personal opinion is that he is not in the class of the other CFs you have mentioned, but I have been wrong before.

By: mike

mike — Sun, 09 Sep 2012 16:55:16 +0000

im not getting my hopes up on garcia

By: mike

mike — Sun, 09 Sep 2012 16:51:47 +0000

lol anthony reyes….

ill still take miller over rosenthal personally but ive become a huge fan of rosie

By: zuke354

zuke354 — Sun, 09 Sep 2012 16:46:54 +0000

good point on the 2 years.

But I like locking players up.

By: DT Flush

DT Flush — Sun, 09 Sep 2012 15:24:45 +0000

Jay owns a 131 wRC+ in only 397 ABs if he were eligible he would be 5th in the ML in wRC+. Jay has showed a lot of progression with the bat in his first three season but not sure his offensive profile long term to hold up. But defensively he’s 2nd in UZR trailing Michael Bourn at 8.2. It will be interesting to see how the organization approaches this situation since Taveras has only groomed as a CF in his career.

By: DT Flush

DT Flush — Sun, 09 Sep 2012 15:15:36 +0000

It will be interesting to see how Matheny mixes and matches names in the lineup next season.