The Cast of the 2012 Texas League Champions
Posted on September 24th, 2012 by Andy Beard in Uncategorized, tags: boone whiting, Carlos Martinez, Chris Swauger, Eric Fornataro, greg garcia, Jermaine Curtis, Keith Butler, Kolten Wong, Michael Wacha, Oscar Taveras, Scott Gorgen, Seth Maness, Texas League Champions, Xavier ScruggsI thought it would be appropriate to highlight some of the individual parts of what made up the 2012 Texas League Champions. For the sake of simplicity, I’m going to feature the top 5 hitters (according to regular season wRC+), the top 5 pitchers (according to regular season FIP), and a few honorable mentions. If you feel like I’ve neglected any players, feel free to discuss them in the comments section.
Need a refresher course on wRC+ or FIP? Check out FanGraphs’ glossary. Read about wRC+ here and FIP here.
Before following the jump to the rest of the post, enjoy a video recap of Springfield’s triumphant season:
HITTERS
Oscar Taveras, CF (.415 wOBA, 161 wRC+): In Future Redbirds’ 2012 top 20 prospects ranking, azruavatar declared that Taveras, “might be the highest upside position player the Cardinals have had in the system since Colby Rasmus.” Taveras fulfilled this comparison by posting very similar numbers to Colby’s 2007 season in Springfield (.414 wOBA, 152 wRC+). Taveras hit for more power (.572 SLG was 21 pts higher), struck out half as often (10.5% compared to Colby’s 19.4%), and did so at a younger age (Taveras turned 20 in June 2012 while Colby turned 21 in August 2007). And we’re not the only ones gushing over the kid. See Kevin Goldstein’s twitter profile here and here.
Greg Garcia, SS (.378 wOBA, 137 wRC+): Out of the two middle infielders that used to make up Hawaii’s double-play combination, Garcia surprised by having the better season. Although he is one year older than Kolten Wong, he’s still age-appropriate for his league. Garcia’s major skill is the ability to draw walks as demonstrated by his impressive 15.9% BB%. He doesn’t have a ton of power but did manage to pop 10 HRs and 20 2Bs, not insignificant totals for a SS. His 20 errors and .966 fielding percentage (terrible stat, but what else do we have for minor leaguers?) sound unappealing, but these numbers were not that far removed from other Texas League shortstops. He’ll crack some (all?) top-20 lists next spring.
Jermaine Curtis, 3B (.372 wOBA, 132 wRC+): Curtis has struggled to climb his way out of double-A. He debuted at Springfield in 2010 and found himself stuck at the same level at the end of 2012, but he was a pivotal cog in its offensive machine. Curtis walked (10.7% BB%) about as often as he struck out (11.4% K%), a skill that he’s repeated over time, but his slugging percentage actually decreased from 2011 and not many players can sustain a .358 BABIP. Given his age and experience at the double-A level, I’m not sure there’s a whole lot of projectability here.
Chris Swauger, OF (.354 wOBA, 121 wRC+): One of the veterans lauded for positively influencing Springfield’s roster (see Kary Booher’s article), Swauger enjoyed a fine season after struggling in brief exposure to triple-A Memphis. Of players with at least 100 PAs, Swauger’s .474 slugging percentage ranked second to Taveras. His power, although a welcome addition to Springfield’s lineup, was not substantial enough to overcome a poor walk rate (6.0%) and advanced age (25-years-old) in terms of prospect status.
Xavier Scruggs, 1B (.346 wOBA, 115 wRC+): Scruggs started off the season ice-cold with an isolated slugging well below .200 in Mar/April (.130) and May (.156). And then June happened. By far his best month of the season, he mashed to the tune of a .356 ISO on the strength of 7 HRs. He couldn’t maintain that pace for the rest of the season, but he was able to hover around the .200 mark in the final two months. Scruggs’ achilles heel is his tendency to strike out. Of the players with at least 100 PAs, his 28.7% K% was the worst rate on the roster.
STARTING PITCHERS
Scott Gorgen (92.3 IP, 4.09/3.57 ERA/FIP): In his first taste of triple-A, Gorgen underwhelmed by posting fewer strikeouts (16.2%) and more walks (11.8%). Consequently, he spent another season in Springfield where he debuted in 2009. Gorgen responded by striking out more than a batter per inning for the first time since low-A (2008). His inflated ERA (when compared to FIP) can partially be explained by an elevated .325 BABIP. While a perfectly fine pitcher, he’s the type in danger of getting squeezed out of the organization because of an influx of younger arms with greater promise, some of whom are already offering superior results.
Seth Maness (123.7 IP, 3.27/3.59 ERA/FIP): Admittedly, Maness is one of my favorite prospects. It’s easy to become fascinated by players who possess one freakish skill. For Maness, that’s the ability to avoid walks. In a season split between two levels (Palm Beach & Springfield), Maness walked 10 batters in 169.7 IP. That’s a 1.5% BB%. Let that sink in. His 9.22 K/BB ratio led all Texas League pitchers with at least 100 IP (next closest pitcher had 3.95 K/BB) despite a below average 16.4% K%. Maness’ disdain for the walk is truly incredible. Revisit the interview Jeff conducted with Maness back in July.
Carlos Martinez (71.3 IP, 2.90/3.84 ERA/FIP): Some have predicted that Martinez will end up in the back of an MLB bullpen (you can find a Goldstein quote in this Derrick Goold Birdland post from February 2012), but his minor league performance hasn’t really cooperated with that forecast as he’s yet to fail as a starter. The shiny 2.90 ERA might have been the result of some luck as his .280 BABIP and slightly deflated strikeout rate (19.7%, compared to 23.4% career) would suggest, but he coaxed a ton of ground balls (57.4%) and allowed very few line drives (10.0%) at the ripe age of 20, so there’s plenty of room for optimism.
BULLPEN
Eric Fornataro (67.7 IP, 2.39/3.07 ERA/FIP): It’s hard to get too excited about a guy who’s been around since 2008 but just now made it to double-A at the age of 24. Fornataro did feature better than league average control (6.3% BB%) and kept the ball on the ground (55.0%), but his strikeouts descended further below an already unimpressive rate. He served his role on this team well but it’s tough to imagine him ever reaching St. Louis at his current pace.
Keith Butler (58.7 IP, 2.76/3.52 ERA/FIP): After time spent at three different levels in 2011, Butler advanced for a full season at double-A. His strikeouts fell to a less outlandish rate (33.3% in 2011 to 23.8%) but he also shaved a couple percentage points off of his walk-rate to help compensate.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
Kolten Wong (.339 wOBA, 111 wRC+): After a promising start to 2012, Wong’s numbers deflated over the summer’s final months and his slugging percentage dropped 100 points from his time in Quad Cities in 2011. Much of that downturn occurred in July when Wong suffered through 121 PAs with a .242 BABIP. Was that simply misfortune or the sign of a player wearing down in his first full season of professional baseball? Either way, his numbers recovered in August & September despite a walk rate that plummeted to 3.5%. Let’s hope Wong can recharge his batteries and have a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League.
Michael Wacha (8.0 IP, 1.13/0.08 ERA/FIP): Touted as a quick-mover through the system, Wacha made some believers by striking out more than half (53.3%) of the batters he faced in 21.0 IP spread across 3 levels and ending in Springfield. The batted ball rates (reliability questionable) he generated were also quite impressive (51.6% GB%, 9.7% LD%). I’m definitely more excited about him now than I was the day he was compared to Jon Garland. MLB.com already has him rated as the Cards’ 7th best prospect.
Boone Whiting (12.0 IP, 1.50/2.70 ERA/FIP): Whiting started 2012 on the disabled list but he finally surfaced for Quad Cities in August and then snuck in a couple of starts for Springfield before the playoffs. I thought Whiting was worth including in this post because he did pitch the deciding fifth game against Tulsa in the opening round of the playoffs, but we didn’t learn much about him this season because of the injury. It’ll be interesting to see how his stuff (powered by a plus changeup) translates to higher levels of competition. Next stop: Arizona Fall League.
* Most stats were obtained from Minor League Central but FanGraphs also proved helpful.
Entries (RSS)
Wong’s performance in the 2nd half of the 2012 season put a question-mark on his resume. Could be just a hiccup but think he should have moved a peg or two down the ranking. Rosenthal has to be considered a better prospect than Wong at this point, doesn’t he?
Rosenthal is a better prospect than Wong at this point. Wong numbers deflated in the 2nd half due to fatiguing at the plate in his first pro season. The AFL will be interesting for him.
I agree Rosenthal is a better prospect. One, he is a better prospect (100+MPH starter vs. solid second baseman) and he is ready for the big leagues.
You also have assists for Garcia, and I believe his assist total is comparable to or better than other SS’s who have a good defensive rep.
and if you add his number of assists and putouts divided by the total games played at SS his RF/Range Factor would be 4.77 1 total point higher than last season’s at QC and Fld% is .966 that’s solid for a SS. Garcia showing progression defensively his bat/plate discipline is still definitely his upside.
Ryan Jackson’s gonna get a shot ahead of Garcia, but if Jackson falters and doesn’t hit enough to play everyday at SS, Garcia will be pushing him hard in a year.
Looks like Kozma will get a shot before either of them.
I don’t think Ryan Jackson will be anything more than a utility player.
Personally, I don’t care what happens to Kozma or Jackson (as I don’t see either amounting to much over the long run) so long as Garcia gets a shot.
I think you’re wrong.
About which?
Like I said below…Why not about both of them.
Y’know, you would be easier to comprehend if you actually used the names of the players you are writing about. Considering that I talked about 3 players in my post, I’m not sure which ones “both” refers to.
Also, both of them what?
I can’t find the defensive leaderboard for the TL, but I did find this:
In 2008, “Andrus led the TL’s shortstops in putouts (181), assists (361), errors (32) and double plays (79).”
http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Elvis%20Andrus
As a comparison, Greg Garcia has 143 putouts, 425 assists, 92 DPs, but only 20 errors. So compared to a guy who’s considered a top SS and led all SS’s in his league, Garcia has 38 fewer PO’s, but 64 more assists, 13 more DPs, and with 37.5% less errors.
Yes but it’s hard to base defensive statistics especially for minor leaguers.
In his three years in the Cardinals minor league system, Greg Garcia has split his time between 2B and SS.
Data below suggest that Garcia has the makings of a utility infielder, with 2B being his best spot.
2010 at JC 2B 47 games / 197 chances / 3 errors fld% .985
2011 at QC & PB 2B 67 games / 254 chances / 2 errors fld% .992
2010 at JC SS 16 games / 82 chances / 2 errors fld% .976
2011 at QC & PB SS 26 games / 94 chances / 4 errors fld% .957
2012 at Spr SS 119 games / 588 chances / 20 errors fld% .966
(with authority of Baseball-Reference data bank)
Does anyone know if Garcia’s errors were mostly fielding or throwing?
Wait, you’re saying that Garcia has the makings of a utility infielder based on _fielding percentage_ (and it’s not as if his are terrible)? Middle infielders who project to have close to .400 OBP aren’t utility guys.
My thought was Greg Garcia could be a utility player because he can play both SS and 2B. Obviously, if Greg continues to have a .400+ OBP and a BA around .285, plus a little gap power, then he would be working himself into a starters role.
My concern with Wong is that he appears (thus far) to be a second-baseman only. The organization from AA down seems to be strong at the 2B position.
Allen Craig and Albert Pujols could also play multiple positions. By your reasoning, you would also have pegged them as utility players.
Richard, when the Cardinals drafted Greg Garcia he was looked upon as being a future utility player. Now, if Greg’s professional performance exceeds the Cardinals original expectations, I am sure the Cardinals will happily accept his higher performance level and use him accordingly.
If you truly think I would consider Pujols and today’s Allen Craig as utility players then I am wasting my time exchanging comments with you.
Well, if you were consistent with your reasoning, you would.
In other words, your reasoning on why you think Garcia should be a utility player is faulty.
The Cards drafting Garcia with the thought that he would be a utility player does not mean he now, in 2012, after the season he’s had in AA, “has the makings of a utility player” (they probably didn’t have high hopes when they took a guy out of KC who was born in the Dominican years ago either; otherwise, he would have been drafted earlier).
Nothing in the data you presented (his fielding percentage) shows whether Garcia “has the makings of a utility player” or not. There are many, far more important attributes you could have looked at instead (even for defense).
If anything, it’s been me who’s been wasting time exchanging comments with a guy who evidently believes that fielding percentage should actually be a key determinant in whether a prospect should be a utility player or a starter.
Attributes like Garcia’s incredible plate discipline skills and hand eye coordination led by his high OBP and walk rate. There isn’t many other fielding stats besides Fld%, putouts, assists, and range factor to evaluate how Garcia is performing at the short stop position defensively.
Richard,
Couldn’t agree with you more concerning Greg Garcia, all he has done is perform. His numbers compare very favorably to Kolton Wong’s and he is able to play a more demanding defensive position. I read where his Grandfather managed in the Major Leagues, his dad played minor league ball and one of his brothers plays Triple A with the White Sox. Clearly he comes from a ballplayers family and that is only a plus. I see him getting a shot at being the everyday shortstop for the Cards one day soon.
and with how hard this kid works day in and day out maybe all he needs is some Oquendo tutelage to at least develop him into an adequate MLB defender at SS (maybe 4-6 runs below average) and his bat is his upside.
not even mentioning Greg is a good clubhouse guy and is consistently the first player on the field get’s his work in before the game day after day. He’s just got a solid approach to the game.
where do u get that information from ? interested to see how you know he is a good clubhouse guy and hard worker
from watching several games in Springfield and by talking to several SPF coaches.
Springfield beat writer Kary Booher recently tweeted couple of weeks ago that in his opinion Eric Fornataro is arguably a tick better reliever than what Luke Gregerson was in ’08 in Double-A. Says Fornataro has a ton of life on his mid-to-upper 90s FB, and his breaking ball is a nasty wipeout pitch that’s showed consistent sharpness in the 2012 season.
Looking at Martinez’s numbers and watching several of his outings he’s become more of a pitcher. 2013 will be interesting seeing him fare those advanced PCL hitters.
That assessment doesn’t really jive with his awful peripheral statistics. Just 41 strikeouts in 67 innings doesn’t scream elite stuff.
This, plus it’s hard to imagine anyone currently pitching in relief in AA or AAA has much chance to be an impact pitcher for the Cards.
If you look just at MLB starters, we have signed or under control for 2013:
Carp
Waino
Garcia
Westbrook
Lynn
Kelly
Rosenthal
Miller
Then you have 2 guys at AA — Martinez and Wacha — who project as MLB starters.
Add in Lyons (3.19 FIP at AAA, 3.67 FIP at AA), Gast, Maness, Gorgen, Siegrist, Whiting, and it seems that you have a lot of guys who’re going to get looks for the Cards’ bullpen before guys like Fornataro and Butler.
Butler may get a look before, say, Gorgen and Siegrist. However, I think you’re right about Fornataro, unfortunately — “unfortunately” because his path to the pros is kind of a nice story. But there are just too many power arms in front of him. It’s a nice problem to have, and if he gets released or Rule 5ed, he might catch on and make it to the Show with a team not so well equipped with minor-league pitching.
Lou, I generally agree with this point as the Cards take guys who even project as relievers and convert them to starters in the minors. However, I look at our bullpen for the stretch run and see Victor Marte sitting there. Maness is a starter, no a bullpen guy. Rosenthal, Miller, and Wacha should, in my opinion, be only used in the pen for short bursts or in Aug / Sept after they have made a significant number of starts already. Rosenthal in particular doesn’t have much pitching experience, let alone professional experience. What I think this means is that there is room in the MLB pen on a fill-in basis for a guy who can strike people out and can be used in one inning bursts. As you point out, that doesn’t sound like Eric Fornataro. It sounds more like Eduardo Sanchez or Maikel Cleto. Even if the bullpen is beset by injuries next year, I don’t see Fornataro as an option. He turns 25 in January. Still young for an MLB reliever but old for the first bite at AAA. Still, Kary Booher could be right and Fornataro is better than Gregerson was @ AA. If Forntaro and the Cards part ways down the road, I think he wouldget a call from Jeff Luhnow.
You got that right!!
If Sanchez can stay healthy, smooth out his mechanics, and actually command his pitches he could be that high K per 9 innings type reliever again.
Sanchez is a mystery to me. It would almost be a relief to hear he is hurt so that then the possibility exists for a medical solution to whatever the problem is. At one point during the 2011 season, Eduardo Sanchez was the St. Louis Cardinals closer. One year later, he doesn’t even sniff a Sept. callup.
There are four/five guys in that group I would peg as finess guys that I would rank Fornataro ahead of in terms of relief:
Gast
Maness
Siegrist
Whiting
Possibly Lyons too.
I would think you want your relief to be a bit more amped up than those guys. JMO
Jeff Luhnow strikes again except this time he inks formerly Low A affiliate of the Cardinals Quad Cities River Bandits to a two year player development contact with the Astros. http://qconline.com/archives/qco/display.php?id=609472
Surprise?
Um….no. Not really.
Richard ans skszyszowski great job on stats!
Wait, you’re saying that Garcia has the makings of a utility infielder based on _fielding percentage_? Infielders who project to have close to .400 OBP aren’t utility guys.
Middle infielders, I meant.
Thought Kozma was an easy drop off the 40 man this winter but now that he is actually showing some life at the major league level you would have to figure that they will keep him for next year.
Most likely to be dropped off the 40 man?
Browning
Anderson
Robinson
Browning.
Maybe there’s a trade to be made to clear 40man space.
Just to note Audry Perez is eligible for Rule 5 draft this winter. I was told Perez was one of the best catchers in the system other than Tartamella and Derba (who don’t hit enough to get consideration). Also, Bryan Anderson is out of options, and Memphis will need a catcher in case of potential injuries and Perez could get an opportunity as the 3rd catcher next September he’s a solid defender behind the plate and has shown ability with the bat.
I’d be surprised if Anderson didn’t make it through waivers.
The old saying about left-handed hitting backup catchers, they can always find a job. I have not seen Anderson throw this season so I don’t know what sort of shape his arm is in. That was the question-mark about him, whether his shoulder was sound. In any event, he will be a 6 year minor league free agent so there will be no waivers to clear after the season if he is not on the 40 man.
So, he’s a minor league free agent?
nevermind. you already answered that…….
But if he waived next year after Spring Training starts he is not a FA even if he clears waivers, correct? Is there a specific date after which he can be waived where he doesn’t become a minor league FA?
I think that his free agency drops him from the 40 man and if they resign him (obviously to a minor league deal) then sending him to AAA after spring training would not require a trip through waivers.
I think that’s how it works. Unless, he had some clause in the deal that said he had to be on the 40 man or 25 man roster by a certain date then he must be released, but i highly doubt Bryan Anderson has enough leverage to negotiate such a deal.
If we keep him on the 40 man through the winter and he signs a contract in the spring (which he would be under no obligation to do) while still on the 40 man and then was waived after spring training started, then maybe you are right that he would go through waivers and we could assign him to AAA. I’m not sure of the status in that situation. I was thinking only about the situation where Anderson is removed from the 40 man over the winter.
how could he stay on the 40 man if he’s a free agent?
since he’s on his last option he would have to first clear through waivers and if he did would become a minor league FA.
Nope, players subjected to outright waivers during the season must report to assigned to their assigned minor league team after clearing waivers. They can only declare free agency if it is their second time being outrighted.
I don’t believe the 6 year minor league free agent rule applies to players on the 40 man roster. The out for players on the 40 man roster is the 3 option rule. If a player on the 40 man roster at the start of ST is not retained on the 25 man roster to start the season then he must be optioned back to the minor league affiliate. Teams only get 3 option years. I have not looked to see whether or not Anderson is out of options.
Anderson is out of options. But being outrighted at that point will simply subject him to waivers and if unclaimed he will have to report to the minor leagues (if assigned). He wont have the right to declare himself a FA.
Honestly, I’m totally confused.
So I’ll ask this question. How does a player become a minor league free agent? And a second, possibly related..possibly not, question. Is the fact that Anderson has major league time, does that change things?
Answering your first question.
The only thing that matters is if the player has spent part or all of seven seasons in the minors with the organization which originally signed him (time spent on option counts toward that seven season requirement). If he has, and he’s not signed to a major league contract for the next season (i.e. he’s not on the 40-man roster) then he becomes a minor league free agent as of Oct. 15 and can sign a minor league contract with any other minor league club.
Okay. So, technically Anderson has one more year with the Cardinals before he could become an actual free agent.
Yes since this is currently Andersons’s sixth season in the organization. 2013 pending FA.
BA has started its 20 best prospects series for each league.
For the GCL, Steve Bean is #11. In the chat, Ben Badler said no other Cardinals got strong consideration. The question was specific to Silfredo Garcia, but the only guy he mentioned was Luis Perez, who’s repeating the league, but at a new position. (He was a catcher for several years, and now he’s playing 2B and OF.) Badler said he has strong hands and generates good bat speed, but doesn’t see a high ceiling.
With Bean, it sounds like his arm is his best tool, while power is his weakest.
Oh heck, let’s go with both.
A utility man is someone who can play more than one position at a high level. Craig is unique in that he starts but also plays more than one position at a high level. I am pretty sure TLR would still call him utility. You can both be right.
The Cardinals do not have a lot of players they need to protect from Rule 5 because of all the ’09 draft class players who are already on the 40 man. I would protect Fornataro, Gorgen, Butler, and maybe Siegrist. Since Berkman and Lohse will be free agents, they would only have to outright 2 or 3 players. I would start with Browning and Marte, then probably Dickson. Reifer, Sanchez, and Cleto all deserve at least one more year.
JMo never likes to go through the winter and even the start of spring training with a full 40 man roster. It seem like he always wants that slot open to pick in the rule 5 or grab somebody off the waiver wire. The Cardinals are a much, much stronger organization top to bottom so maybe that thinking will change. In any event, don’t be surprised if there are only 39 names on the 40 man this winter.
Did not think about Marte in my list of possible drops. I thought he’d done a decent job this year but another look at his numbers tell me otherwise. I don’t see Anderson lasting another year either though. They obviously don’t believe he is ever going to be good enough to play defense on the major league level so they might as well let him go. Maybe Houston can find room for him on their roster.
In addition to Fornataro…..Hooker and Blazek might also be gone if not protected this winter. They also seemed to find a home in the bullpenn this year with much better performances in those roles. Both only 23yrs old with good FB velo, someone might take a shot on that. Blazek excellent splits as a reliever compared to starter.
Victor DeLeon (9) and Carson Kelly (13) on the BA Appy League Top 20
Not surprised on De Leon.
Batavia signs player development contract with Marlins.
Guess I’m wrong about Fornataro. Goold has him as the Cards’ #7 prospect. Derrick has access to everyone in the Cards’ organization, so you can’t doubt his sources.
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/goold-taveras-is-cards-top-prospect/article_be8b1680-75f9-585a-85ec-d6bdf0d23e40.html
I thought it was pretty random when Mayo had Fornataro as our #17 prospect, and now Goold has him 10 places higher. (Although Goold’s criteria exclude everyone who’s appeared in the majors, which would take out 4 guys ahead of him on Mayo’s list.)
I guess the stats aren’t telling us the right story.
Lou, the next thing you know you’re going to have to do a mea culpa on Kozma too,
Seen some mention of Kozma in the top 20 list on some sites.
The hard thing is explaining to Cards fans who don’t follow the minors that Kozma is a career .236/.305/.344 hitter over seven minor-league seasons, and it’s just a matter of time before teams call in their minor-league scouts to explain how they got him out 70% of the time.
I was surprised they brought up Kozma instead of Ryan Jackson in the first place but at this point it certainly looks like they knew what they were doing. Small sample size aside, showing that you can play an important role on the major league level during a playoff drive is a notable accomplishment. One that other general managers will not soon forget. Mr. Kozma may never be a starter again but he may have shown just enough spark to keep him on a major league roster for many years to come.
Statistically, what Koz is doing in St. Louis stands on the threshold of being significant. It’s a small sample size, but a 2-sigma outlier based on projections from AAA to majors. That’s enough that it can’t be automatically dismissed as a fluke despite the SSS. There’s no way he’s a .338 hitter, of course, but better than a simple projection does seem possible.
I only saw Koz play once or twice in the minors, but this simply looks like a different guy compared to what I saw. He was getting eaten up by AAAA-level pitching and looked lost as it was happening — I remember remarking on how timid he looked compared to Jackson. Whatever his eventual level of production, that deer-in-the-headlights look is gone.
Watching highlights of the past few games, it’s amazing how many of his line drives drop just inside the lines. He has a .378 BABIP, which you have to think will come down in a larger sample size.
The highest for a regular this year is Jay’s .355, followed by Freese at .353. Those are career norms for both guys, at all levels. Kozma’s last 3 full-season BABIPs:
2010 (AA): .285
2011 (AAA): .265
2012 (AAA): .251
More consistent, I think (or I guess I should say I hope), is his fielding. UZR has him at 1.3 for 22 games. The other 3 shortstops:
Furcal: -8.1
Descalso: – 2.9
Greene: – 1.2
Kozma’s UZR/150 is 12.0. If that’s a realistic estimation of his defensive value — he did have a couple of minor-league seasons with over 400 assists at SS — it could make up for a regression on offense over a full season.
The BABIP will come down, of course, but I wonder how much of that “line drives drop just inside the lines” is luck and how much of it is that he’s figured something out. Watching Jon Jay hit is like a tutorial in hitting ‘em where they ain’t — he seems able to change his swing to hit the ball just where he wants it an uncanny fraction of the time. Could Koz have watched him and said to himself, “I can do that”?
A few years ago I saw the Cardinals in Denver (I live closer to Denver than to St. Louis) and got to watch Pujols taking batting practice. He wasn’t hitting thunderous drives out of Planet Coors; instead he was practicing “hitting behind the runner.” It was an amazing thing to see. Fully 80% of the balls he hit were line drives that landed in an area of right field maybe 20 feet square. Guys with phenomenal bat control can do that. If Koz has learned something about how it’s done from watching Jay, and before him Pujols, and maybe a hitting coach, there may be a real breakthrough in progress here, although not one that’s going to have him hitting .338 for long.
Hope you’re right!
To be sure, I suspect you’re right … but one can always hope.
Jay just has tremendous bat control he knows how to spray the ball to all fields.
The caveat on Fornatero is that Goold’s 7 man list is comprised only of players who have not played a game in the majors as of yet, thus it excludes guys like Miller and Rosenthal. Regardless it apparently gives us another good prospect to follow. Very exciting, particularly since the depth of middle relief prospects has seemed to thin out in the last season.
I just dont see Fornataro as a shutdown late inning reliever which he would need to be to merit such high a ranking. His K rate is just too low and doesn’t correspond with his “stuff”. Not to say he can’t be a valuable middle inning guy but I’m not sold on him as a top prospect.
Oh, I think the stats are telling you the right story. 24y/o relievers in AA with sub 6 k/9′s are not top prospects. Eric Fornataro’s “talent” this year was not giving up HRs, and he did so at an wholly unsustainable rate. When his HR/FB rate normalizes next year (and it will), a lot of people will wonder what happened, I guess.
NY-Penn top 20 is up at BA.
They have Wisdom #6, Cooney #19, and Valera #20.
Valera got effusive praise from one source, but BA sees his ceiling as everyday 2B or utilityman. They don’t think he has the arm or range for SS.
In the Ask BA article posted today they indicate that the Cards tie the Padres, Pirates, Red Sox and Mariners with the most unique players, 14, on the Top 20 lists for all of the minor leagues. Very encouraging.
Shows how well the organization has done scouting, signing, drafting, and developing these young prospects in the past 2-4 years.
Valera is already at barreling everything from both sides of the plate as he lead the NY-Penn League in hits this season. If Valera can develop some more pop, or learn to draw more walks and be patient at the plate because he only walked at a 5.9% Rate, will get more prospect attention who knows still very young and has plenty of room to fill out.
Just to note Valera could be a very solid utility player he’s saw some time at 3B, 2B, SS, LF, and RF this season just a versatile player.
Midwest League top 20 at BA: Jenkins #14, Piscotty #20.
Jim Callis said what we all know about Jenkins: great potential, erratic performance.
About Piscotty, there was high praise for his methodical, professional hitting approach, but skepticism about whether he’ll get strong enough to turn those line-drive doubles into homers. And of course nobody thinks he can play 3rd base in MLB.
It’s an interesting contrast to Aaron Fitt’s comments about Wisdom in the NYPL chat. He thinks Wisdom may be quite a bit better than advertised, with serious power and good defense at 3rd. Wisdom definitely hits the ball in the air (his GB rate is way below league average), and he managed to hit 6 out in a league that’s historically tough on hitters. The park at Batavia is particularly tough on righthanded hitters (although I don’t know if he hit his homers on the road or at home).
The Cards have an interesting collection of righthanded corner guys coming up. Piscotty figures to be a corner outfielder going up the ladder, along with Garcia. Both have the arm for RF. Garcia seems to have the edge on power, but Piscotty has the more advanced approach, with a K rate less than half Garcia’s.
Wisdom is a few months younger than Piscotty and a few months older than Garcia, but doesn’t figure to have anyone blocking him at 3rd going forward. So his bat can take him where it takes him.
Then there’s Kelly, who’s 3-4 years younger and probably needs another year in short-season ball. If he doesn’t pan out at 3rd, he has the arm to play RF, and certainly seems to have the power. Everything else will most likely take a while to develop. I would think a sub-15% K rate is a good sign from a 17-year-old starting out in pro ball against older and more experienced competition. Obviously the walk rate has to rise above 4%, but at least he makes decent contact for a slugger.
Piscotty, Wisdom, Kelly and Bean all ranked in the Top 20 of their respective leagues. It will be interesting to see if and where Wacha (I am not sure he pitched enough innings to qualify) and Ramsey get ranked, but it is already a positive take on the Cards 2012 draft.
Wisdom is a little less than 3 years older than Kelly.
I really like what we’ve seen from Wisdom. If I did a Cards prospect list, he’d be pretty high. Only 3B prospect in system above rookie league, IMO.
forgot to add Piscotty although assuming he is a 3B next season.
No, I intentionally left Piscotty off.
Garcia top 5 in league OPS for 3 straight years while being below league average age. 3 straight years not in his league’s top 20 prospects.
I just received my hard copy of the new Baseball America. No Cardinal prospects in the Florida State League. In the Texas League, Taveras is #2 (behind Profar), Martinez is 6, Rosenthal is 9 and Wong is 16. In the Pacific Coast League Miller is 6 and Adams is 19.
Interesting placement for Adams. Didn’t they have him just outside the top 50 at midseason? Or am I thinking of another list?
I think you are correct, but that was outside the top 50 in all of the minors, while they now have Adams as #19 in the PCL only.
BA just not high on Adams plate discipline and low walk rate. Have to like the fact he’s mashed at every level he’s been in.
in the MWL chat they talked about Garcia, he is seen as an all bat guy, not a great athelete or defensive player. he will have to really hit to make it was the opinion given. apparently they don’t look very highly on him to not rank him in the top 20 of a low A league.
Keep in mind Garcia was drafted and siged as a catcher out of PR so he’s still technically learning how to play the outfield.
his bat should have easily gotten him into the top 20 MWL list. Not getting any love from BA.
So Shelby goes 6 perfect tonight?
better question will be how many hitters does he eat up with that ++ FB.
Answer: a lot.
Yep … I was actually almost correct … horseshoes/hand grenades
Tavares is on the cover of the new baseball America magazine. Headline “Oscar Buzz”
The Cardinals have re-signed Tommy Pham. I wonder what type of injury will end his season next year.
BA has its first look at the order of the 2013 draft:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/10/a-look-at-the-initial-2013-draft-order/
As it stands, the Cards have 3 picks in the top 100: #20, #56, and #93.
It’s going to take a while to get used to the new free-agent-compensation rules. The Cards can move up if teams ahead of them sign free agents and lose their picks. They can also gain a pick at the end of the first round if they make Lohse a qualifying offer and he signs elsewhere.
I’m sure we’ll be reading a lot about that in the next month or two. In the past the Cards haven’t shown much stomach for risk. I can’t remember them offering arb to any free agent since Pedro Guerrero unless they either wanted him back or were sure he wouldn’t accept. You have to figure that Lohse wants a multiyear deal.
But if the Cards offer him whatever they have to — $13 million? more? — and no one wants him enough to offer multiple years at a higher AAV and the loss of a draft pick, why wouldn’t he take the money on the table?
See, I don’t think that one more year of Kyle Lohse at are 13M is such a bad thing, but I am sure that making that qualifying offer would scare other teams away making that offer more an offer for him to return to the Cardinals as opposed to a good enough outcome if he’s unable to find a better deal.
It’s like they just took a ton of avenues teams had to make the draft interesting.
Also, I think you forgot to mention the possibility of that extra pick the Cardinals could get because they’re a small market team.
Hasn’t the lottery for the small-market slots already been held, with the result that the Cardinals didn’t get one? Purely by chance, of course.
correct.
MLB Compeitive Balance Lottery tooks place in July.
I agree with Tackle Box that offering Lohse the necessary qualifying offer would not be a bad thing. If he accepted $13 million that would not be a terrible pitcher to have at that price for one year. It would clog up things but that could be dealt with.
However the possibility of Lohse and his agent, Borat, accepting a one year contract after the year Lohse has had is ZERO.
Finally the offer is required to be made fairly early before other teams start negotiating for free agents. I believe the Cards will make the offer, Borat will reject it and Lohse wiill sign elsewhere for at least 3 years at $15 million. You are NOT going to believe the contracts being given for players not as good as Lohse. The money will be flowing this offseason.
I agree. Offering Lohse arbitration looks like a no brainer after the season he has had.
John Sickel’s Minor League Baseball site does a review of Austin Wilson, the Stanford OF the Cards drafted in the 12th round in 2010, but couldn’t sign.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/mlb-bonus-baby/2012/10/5/3450976/2013-draft-profile-austin-wilson-of-stanford
Interesting article by Beyond the boxscore.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/10/5/3443558/mlb-prospects-scouting-sabermetrics