On the other hand, if I were running the Cardinals’ draft, and local laws had some sort of prohibition against racketeering, I might go with something like this. Note that I’m trying to pick players I think will be available in whatever round; this isn’t any kind of talent ranking or anything. I just happened to be awake and bored, so I thought I might throw a little something together.

Round 1: Chad James, LHP, Yukon HS (OK)

I’ve oscillated between James and Matt Hobgood as my two favourite guys in this draft; I think both have outstanding mechanics to go along with front of the rotation potential. In the end, James gets the nod largely due to his sinistrality, as he helps address a glaring weakness in the system. I also like his body better; Hobgood looks like the type that would really need to watch his weight. More projectability and throwing from the wrong side makes Chad James my first rounder.

Round 2: Richie Shaffer, 3B, Providence HS (NC)

I actually really like Randall Grichuk, the outfielder Erik wrote about the other day, at this spot, but I don’t see Shaffer being around in the 3rd, so I have to choose between the two, and Shaffer’s place on the defensive spectrum gives him the edge. One of the better HS bats in this draft, as well as a capable defender at the hot corner, the big questions about Shaffer are where he projects down the road. He has the hands and arm to stick at third, but his lateral movement leaves a bit to be desired. I really like him, and he’s my boy in the 2nd.

Round 3: Robbie Shields, SS/2B, Florida Southern University

I’ve been a big fan of Shields for quite some time, and I think he’s one of the more underrated players in this year’s draft. He’s got a live body, good defensive actions (though he would likely be better at second than short), and a better bat than I think he gets credit for. I’m really tempted to take one of the college sophomores or a tough sign HSer here, as it’s a protected pick, but I believe in Shields, and he won’t be around ’til the 4th.

Round 4: Craig Fritsch, RHP, Baylor University

If Scott Bittle is still hanging around here, I probably take him, but I think some team will like the performance more than they fear the question marks and pop him before this. I love Fritsch’s repertoire, and I think he gets overlooked because of his unorthodox mechanics.

Round 5: Jon Pokorny, LHP, Kent State

Pokorny isn’t going to wow anyone, and he’s already mature physically, so there isn’t any real projection left, but he has posted K/BB ratios consistently in the 3:1 range, and has a nice high floor.

Round 6: Brett Nommensen, OF, Eastern Illinois University

Okay, let me just get this out of the way: I love Brett Nommensen. He has, quite possibly, the best plate discipline of anyone in the draft. He isn’t big, but he does have some pop in his bat to go along with plus speed. In the end, though, I believe in his ability to get on base, and I think he could end up being one of the real hidden gems in this year’s draft.

Round 7: Josh Olson, 1B, Hill Murray HS (MN)

You may not have heard of Olson, but chances are you will before the 2012 draft comes along. He’s a big, strong kid with the kind of swing you get with big, strong kids from Minnesota. The thought is that he’ll go to Holy Cross and develop for a couple of years, but I like his bat enough to pop him here and buy him out of that commitment.

You know what? Beyond here, I would really just be pulling names out of a hat, so I’m going to stop. Happy Draft Day, everyone.

You know, I was actually planning a post today taking that long-promised look at the Cincinnati farm system, but something erik put in his GCL wrap just a couple of days ago changed my mind. And I quote:

I don’t want to pick on Gary Daley any more than I already have, but when was the last time you’ve seen a 5/32 K/BB ratio? From a 22 year old in rookie ball? From a third round pick? That’s just…wow.

That got me to thinking. Over the past few years, the Cardinals have shown a proclivity for drafting a certain type of player, a certain draft demographic, if you will. I’m speaking, of course, of the raw college pitcher. A bit of an odd breed, to be honest. Traditionally, teams would draft one of two ways. If they wanted upside and talent, they would draft a raw high school kid. If they wanted experience and polish, they would draft a guy out of college, who was much closer to being a finished product. The Cardinals, however, have bucked that bit of conventionality by taking pitchers out of college programs who have had relatively poor results, often are considered very raw, and generally just need quite a lot of work.

Anyway, I immediately decided that, rather than discuss the Cincinnati Reds and their prospects, I would take a look at some of the pitchers that the Cardinals have taken out of this specific segment of the draft, and see if they’ve had any success at it. Chris Lambert- Lambert was taken in Jeff Luhnow’s very first draft with the Cardinals, the 2004 debacle. We all know the story by now, no crosscheckers, the assistant GM running the thing, flying just on instruments, etc. Still, this is an interesting pick, as the very first selection the Cardinals made with Luhnow on board just happened to come from a demographic that Luhnow went back to again and again.

We all know the story on Lambert, so I won’t rehash it here. Suffice it to say, the Cards’ 2004 first round draft pick was basically three months of Mike Maroth. I don’t think anything more needs to be said.

Mark McCormick- When the 2005 draft went down, I’ll admit that Mark McCormick was the player I was most excited about of the bunch. He had been clocked as high as 103 mph at times during his college career at Baylor and had a big hammer curve. Basically, the kid was Kerry Wood, just out of college.

This past season, McCormick made it to Double A for the first time in his career, at age 24. While at Springfield, he threw 23.2 innings, struck out sixteen batters, and walked eighteen. He also gave up five homers. Put it all together, and you get a 7.40 FIP. Ouch. McCormick has had injury issues as well, making him a very long shot to ever make it to the big leagues at this point. Not so good for a supplemental round pick.

Adam Ottavino- Ottavino was a hard thrower who was always more hittable than he should have been in college at Northeastern. After three years as a professional, he’s still a hard thrower who just happens to be more hittable than he should be. He was drafted thirtieth overall in the first round of the 2006 draft.

Like McCormick, Ottavino took a shot at Double A this year. Sadly, also like McCormick, Double A shot back. And how. Ott put up a 5.23 ERA, a 5.10 FIP, and a 96/52 K/BB ratio. Oy. Another first rounder that isn’t working out so well.

Gary Daley- When Daley was drafted, the club spoke of him having front of the rotation stuff, despite lackluster numbers in his college career. Daley was taken in the third round of the ’06 draft, and after three years, he-

You know what? Nevermind.

Eddie Degerman- Funky, Iron Mike delivery notwithstanding, I just don’t really see what the Cards saw in Degerman. He was taken in the fourth round out of Rick University.

He walked almost fourteen percent of the hitters he faced this season, which is the main problem with Degerman. He does strike out a lot of batters, allowing him to post an acceptable 4.49 FIP, but you don’t much like his chances of being a big contributor.

Brad Furnish- You know what I know about Brad Furnish? Two things. One, his agent seems like a pretty cool guy. Two, he was drafted over Brett Anderson in the second round of the ’06 draft. Anderson was a high schooler at the time, while Furnish was an underachieving lefty out of Texas Christian University. Furnish was known for having very good stuff for a lefty, but struggling to get a hold on his talent.

Two years later, Anderson is one of the top prospects in the Athletics’ system. Furnish came back from minor surgery this year and tried to get healthy. Not really his fault he got hurt, of course; just pointing out where each of them are.

When he’s been healthy, Furnish has actually pitched pretty well, to be honest. He had an ERA under 2.00 at Springfield this year, in 22 innings. Unfortunately, he had a 4.35 FIP to go along with a 4.86 in high class A. If Furnish could ever stay on the field, he might yet be effective, most likely out of the bullpen. See? It’s not all bad.

Clayton Mortensen- The Cards’ supplemental round pick out of Gonzaga in 2007, Mort cause quite a stir when he was drafted. He came to spring training this year and pitched pretty well before being sent down to Memphis. Unfortunately, after being promoted to Triple A midseason, Mortensen seemed a little out of his league, began nibbling, and predictably struggled.

Of all the pitchers on this list, I think I still like Mortensen the most. I think, with his repertoire, that he could definitely be an upper half of the rotation sort of pitcher. It’s just going to take a bit longer than some of us thought at the end of March.

David Kopp- One of my very favourite players in the entire farm system, largely due to his beautiful delivery, Kopp was taken in the second round out of Clemson in 2007. Unfortunately, Kopp hurt his shoulder and is currently running the gauntlet of medical personnel. There have been some rumours floating around that Kopp didn’t hurt his shoulder pitching, but I’ve been as yet unable to determine if that’s true or not.

I admit, I’m still a big Kopp fan. He’s got excellent stuff and great mechanics. Hopefully, his arm troubles will turn out to be just speedbumps on his way to major league glory.

Now, this isn’t necessarily a definitive list, by any means. Still, I think we have a large enough sample here to conclude that the raw college picher hasn’t been particularly good to the Cardinals. Yet still we see them go back to the same move every year.

I have to say, I just don’t get it.

Sitting atop the division, the Cubs went all in this year, trading away some of their top minor league talent to land Rich Harden from the Oakland Athletics. The trade was largely the culmination of the Cubbies’ direction the past couple years, as they have brought in veteran, high priced talent at the expense of their young talent base.

Coming into the season, the Cubs’ farm system was rated the 20th best in the game by Baseball America.
Their top 10 prospects were laid out thusly:

1) Josh Vitters 3B

2) Geovany Soto C

3)Tyler Colvin OF

4) Jose Ceda RHP

5) Sean Gallagher RHP

6) Donald Veal LHP

7) Josh Donaldson C

8) Jeff Samardzija RHP

9) Tony Thomas 2B

10) Kevin Hart RHP

Okay. First things first. In the deal that landed the Cubs Harden and Chad Gaudin from the Athletics, they gave up Sean Gallagher, their number 5, Eric Patterson, the second base prospect who came in ranked #16, and Josh Donaldson, #7. (They also gave up Matt Murton, but he doesn’t factor into this discussion.)

So let’s take a look at what they’ve got left. Geovany Soto graduated to the majors, unfortunately for the Cardinals.

Josh Vitters, the Cubs’ first round pick in 2007, struggled out of the gate last season, hitting under .200 in his first taste of pro ball. It was surprising, considering how highly regarded Vitters’ bat was coming out of the draft. He has had no such problems this season, batting .348 in slightly more than 200 at bats. Overall, he has a slash line of .348/.386/.525. He does only have four home runs on the season, but his 20 home runs hint that there’s going to be plenty of over the fence power down the line. Vitters is definitely a high impact talent, and with a solid season, I have to assume that he remains the Cubs’ top prospect going into next season.

I have to say, I just don’t really get Tyler Colvin. I look at him, and I just don’t see it. He’s fairly okay in the outfield, according to most reports that I’ve seen, but his bat is a big question mark. Coming into the season, most of the pundits thought that, though Colvin is still very raw at the plate, his ability to put the bat on the ball would eventually lead him to hit for both average and power, even if he never drew many walks. So far in 2008, though, that hasn’t happened. He’s struggled to a .256/.314/.424 line in almost 500 at bats. He has improved his contact rate slightly, but that hasn’t translated into much success as of yet. Still, you hear a lot about how Colvin is the center fielder of the future for the Cubs. Like I said, I just don’t get it. I guess he will still be a top ten prospect for the Northsiders, but I’m not impressed.

Of the Cubs’ top ten prospects, possibly the two players that I actually like the most are the two relievers, Jose Ceda and Jeff Samrdzija. Both throw hard, and both throw strikes. Ceda has been downright wicked this season, having a fair amount of success at the high A level before moving on to
Double A, where he has been even better. Only 21 years old, he’s currently sporting a nifty 2.95 FIP, and striking out over 30% of the batters he’s faced. Even more importantly than the K rate, he’s only walking about 10% of hitters. Ceda has garnered some comparisons to Lee Smith due to his big fastball and hulking size, and I think it’s a pretty apt comp. In another system, Ceda would likely be ticketed for future closer status. In this particular case, though, he’ll most likely end up a setup man, because of the presence of…

Jeff Samardzija, the ten million dollar man. The Cubs took Samardzija out of Notre Dame and backed a dumptruck full of money up to his door to convince him to give up football in favour of a career throwing baseballs. At the time, lots of us (myself included), thought it was a foolish gamble on a player so obviously raw and far away from the bigs. Fortunately- or unfortunately, depending on your perspective- it now looks as if it wasn’t such a crazy gamble after all, as Samardzija has reached the majors after only a little over a year in the minors. Not too long ago, erik even said that, given the choice, he would take Samardzija over our own Chris Perez. I happen to disagree, as I like the movement on Perez’s fastball a little better, and I don’t think that Samardzija has a secondary pitch to match Chris’ slider, but it’s certainly a question that you could go either way on. As it stands now, Samardzija and his power sinker look to be the closer of the future for the Cubs, with Marmol the Magnificent and maybe Ceda serving as setup. Of course, whether he’ll end up being worth the $10 million investment is still up for debate, but I for one think it was a good risk to take.

Veal may be the biggest enigma in all of the Cubs’ system. He has drawn comparisons to Dontrelle Willis, both for his electric left arm and his funky delivery. Unfortunately, Veal has essentially taken the same nosedive as Willis, only Veal has done it in the minor leagues. Repeating Double A this season, Veal carries an unsightly 4.94 FIP and has seen his K rate plummet each of the last three years, from almost 28% in 2006 to 22.4% last season to barely over 18% this year. He is still only 23, so there is time for Veal to get himself back on track, but it doesn’t look particularly good.

Kevin Hart actually made his big league debut last season, after learning a new cut fastball in the offseason. He’s been quite successful at AAA this year, posting a 3.40 FIP and a nearly 3:1 K/BB ratio. His success hasn’t translated to the majors so far in 2008, though, with an ERA near 8.00 to show for his troubles. Even if Hart doesn’t get enough innings this year to knock him out of prospecthood, I think he’ll probably still drop out of the top ten.

So, out of their top ten, the Cubs gave up two in trade and will most likely lose two of them to the majors. (Soto and Samardzija) So, what sort of talent have they added to help cushion the blow?

Well, to be perfectly honest, not very much. Most of the prospects in the Cubs’ system have had rough 2008 seasons. Guys like Sam Fuld and Chris Huseby have been just downright awful, and injuries have plagued the system as well. One of the few real risers has been Jake Fox, who has been knocking around Triple A pitching for a .600 SLG. Unfortunately, Fox is also 26 years old and severely limited in most facets of the game, so it’s unclear just how valuable he actually is. You may not believe me, but I’m absolutely serious. The Cub farm system this year has been nearly as awful as the major league team has been good.

So how about draft picks, you say? Well, the Chicago boys had an interesting draft this year, to say the least. Outside of whatever violations they may have committed, the players they took were a little odd.

With their first pick in the draft, the Cubs took Andrew Cashner, a RHP. While that’s not odd in itself, the fact that Cashner is a pure college reliever. I don’t know about you guys, but #19 seems a little high to take a reliever to me. Then again, I freely admit to being a sucker for upside, often at the expense of predictability. So I may be a little prejudiced against Cashner.

In the second round, the Cubs pissed me off. They took Ryan Flaherty a second baseman who also just happened to be one of my favourite players in the entire draft. He’s a lefthanded hitter with an outstanding swing that I think is going to produce a terrific hitter down the line. Consider him sort of a poor man’s Chase Utley. That may be a little over the top, but I really like this kid. Suffice it to say I was rather upset on draft day when the Cubs- the Cubs!- took a guy I really, really wanted. Sigh.

Things only got worse for me as the Chicago draft continued on. In the second round, the Cubbies took my namesake, Aaron Shafer, a college righty out of Wichita State. Shafer has outstanding stuff and what appears to be an effortless delivery, but has had a ton of injury problems. He certainly has a tremendous ceiling, but there are definite questions about his durability. In short, he’s just the sort of player the Cubs seem to like in the draft. They’re gamblers by and large, perfectly willing to spend both a pick and bonus money to bring in what they see as impact talent, with little thought to the potential downside.

In addition to being forced to watch myself pitch for Chicago in a couple of years, we could also see Chris Carpenter in a Cubs’ uniform. They took Carpenter,  another righthanded pitcher, in the third round. Carpenter is an intriguing arm, with quite good stuff, but his overall numbers aren’t particularly impressive.

In the later rounds, the Cubs took- okay, look, I’m going to level with you. I don’t know much of anything about the Cubs’ late round picks. I researched far more about the Chicago Cubs than I wanted to in composing this post, and I finally just ran out of tolerance for such an unpleasant subject. So, I just can’t tell you very much about their late round draftees. Sorry.

Overall, the Cubs had a decent draft, I think. I really like one of their picks, I don’t entirely get their first, and the few others I really know much about are sort of a mixed bag.

So where does this farm system rank going forward? Well, to be honest, it isn’t going to do very well. The Cubs have lost four of their top ten prospects, either to trade or graduation, as well as another player in the mid teens. In addition, they haven’t had too many players really step up and take a big step forward in the minors. They still have one true impact talent at the top in Josh Vitters, but after that it’s pretty bare. They have little depth at any position, and not much blue chip talent either. What they do have, though, is a willingness to go for high ceiling players that will occasionally develop big time value.

Bottom line, this system falls down to near the bottom of the rankings next year, I think.

I’ll look at the Reds next time. ‘Til then.

Before the season began, the Milwaukee farm system was rated as the 22nd best in the game by Baseball America. The Brewers fell further than any other team in the rankings from the previous year, largely because they’ve graduated so much talent to the major league club. Their entire infield in Milwaukee is homegrown, as well as both their starting left and right fielders. Mike Cameron in center field and Jason Kendall behind the plate are the only two regulars the Brewers field who aren’t products of their farm system. They also graduated Yovani Gallardo, their #1 prospect in 2007, to the big league ranks, giving them a pair of potential aces at the top of their rotation, both of whom were drafted and developed by the Brewers. I don’t know about you, but I find that to be pretty impressive.

Anyhow, per BA, the top 10 Brewers’ prospects entering the 2008 campaign:

1. Matt LaPorta 1B/OF
2. Manny Parra LHP
3. Alcides Escobar SS
4. Jeremy Jeffress RHP
5. Cole Gillespie OF
6. Matt Gamel 3B
7. Brent Brewer SS
8. Angel Salome C
9. Lorenzo Cain OF
10. Caleb Gindl OF

It’s obviously not as inspiring a group as the past few years for the Brew Crew, but that’s still not bad at all. LaPorta is one of the most promising young sluggers in the game; Parra has since graduated from prospect status and is currently putting up excellent numbers in the majors. Personally, I’m not a real big believer in Escobar, just from the one time I saw him play. Too small a sample, really, but I came away less than impressed. Jeffress has a big time arm but, unfortunately, just can’t seem to decide whether he would rather be Dwight Gooden or Peter Tosh, as he began the year serving a 50 game suspension for marijuana use. Gillespie is a solid all around player, and Matt Gamel essentially looks to be the second coming of Ryan Braun, including the 53 errors at third base last season.

Anyway, how has all of this changed? In the Sabathia deal, the Brewers gave up LaPorta, Zach Jackson, a left handed pitcher who was pitching at Triple A this season, Rob Bryson, a hard throwing reliever that many projected to be the Brewers’ closer of the future, and a player to be named later. The PTBNL in this deal is likely to be either outfielder Michael Brantly or third baseman Taylor Green, with most sources indicating that the Indians like Green, so we’ll just assume he’s the guy for our purposes here, shall we?

First off, in LaPorta, the Brewers gave up their consensus number one prospect. LaPorta draws comparisons to guys like Matt Holliday and Pat Burrell, among others, for his polish, power, walks, and strikeouts, though he has done a nice job of keeping his K rate under control season. The Cards don’t really have a closely comparable player in their system to LaPorta, but quality-wise, he’s probably just a slight step down from a guy like Colby Rasmus. Rasmus is a better prospect due to his defensive projections, but LaPorta should end up a slightly more productive hitter. Actually, I take that back. The Cards do have a similar player; their most recent top pick. Wallace is pretty close to LaPorta, a polished collegiate slugger with defensive questions. Wallace’s plate discipline is a little better than LaPorta, but his power profile is a little less. Very similar players, though. I just forgot about Wallace, given that he hasn’t been ranked on a list anywhere yet. As for the Brewers losing LaPorta, anytime you lose your top guy, it’s going to knock your system down a peg or two, and this is no exception.

Zach Jackson is basically just a ‘change of scenery’ type guy. Milwaukee acquired him a couple of years ago from the Blue Jays in the Lyle Overbay deal. As recently as 2006, he was a top ten prospect in the Brewers’ system. He was seen then as a mid rotation type guy, and expected to be in Milwaukee by the end of the ’06 season. Well, he made it to Milwaukee that year, but struggled at the major league level, seemed to lose his confidence, and never did quite get it all back together. He’s still only 25, though, so there’s time for Jackson to possibly develop into something useful. He has some definite funk to his delivery, making him a good candidate to become a LOOGY if nothing else. Either way, the Brewers didn’t give up a ton of value here.

Rob Bryson strikes people out. It’s just that simple. He strikes people out. Lots of them. He was drafted in 2006, under the now defunct draft and follow system, and began his pro career in 2007 at the Brewers’ Rookie level affiliate in Helena. And what did he do there? That’s right. He struck people out. In his debut, he struck out 31.5% of the batters that he faced, or 70 of 222. To begin 2008, he moved up to Low class A West Virginia, and what did he do? Well, you get the idea. At WV, he struck out 31.6% of the batters that he faced, while walking only 8.7% and posting a nifty 2.81 FIP. If you’re looking for a comparable player in the Cardinals’ system, it would probably be someone like Jason Motte, though younger and without the interesting story. Their strikeout and walk rates are very similar, with Motte coming in at 34.6% K/PA and 9.3% BB/PA this season. Unlike Motte, though, Bryson lives largely on the strength of his slider, rather than pure velocity. Maybe sort of a hybrid of Jason Motte and Luke Gregerson, if you like.

Taylor Green is the Brewers’ reigning Minor League Player of the Year. An excellent defensive third baseman, he also boasts an exceptional batting eye, carrying nearly a 1:1 K/BB ratio. He has a nice, compact, line drive swing from the left side that produces solid batting averages, but not a ton of power. That’s the real knock on his game, as otherwise he’s top to bottom solid. There has been some talk of moving him to second base; you might see a little bit of a guy like Dustin Pedroia in him. Tell the truth, Green is sort of what you might hope Daniel Descalso turns into.

All right. So Milwaukee gave up quite a bit for a three month rental, no? A comparable package from the Cardinals might be something along the lines of Colby, Anthony Reyes, Jason Motte, and Allen Craig. Not exactly comparable players, I know, but as a quick and dirty value comp for the whole package, it will do.

So, back to the original question: where would the Brewers system rank now?

Well, they started at 22, and they’ve lost their top two prospects. LaPorta to trade, Parra to the majors. They moved a future closer candidate in Bryson, who ranked as their #16 prospect before this year. Jackson doesn’t really impact the system much one way or the other, but he did offer some depth to the ML club. Green’s unsustainable BABIP of last year fell off this season, bringing him back down to earth, but he’s still a solid prospect. I imagine he would be a top 25 in pretty much any system in baseball.

Milwaukee, did, however, add two of the most intriguing talents in the entire draft in June, helping to offset these losses. They drafted Brett Lawrie and Jake Odorizzi in the first and supplemental rounds, respectively, giving them two players with extremely high ceilings, both of whom I greatly coveted. I’m a big believer in Odorizzi in particular; in fact, I’m going to go on record right now and say I think he ends up the best pitcher in the entire 2008 draft class. So, the Brewers did add two top ten sort of talents, while only losing probably one.

What about the players already in the system? Well, I’m glad you asked.

Alcides Escobar is apparently aware of my disdain for him, and is not at all amused. He is currently tearing up Double A, putting up an OPS of .809 while still playing his trademark defense. Still, though, his current levels of production are almost guaranteed to fall off, as he’s sporting a nifty .384 BABIP while only hitting line drives 18% of the time. He has excellent speed, so he may be able to maintain a slightly elevated BABIP due to legging out some hits, but .384 just isn’t going to happen. He walks in less than 5% of his at bats, so when his batting average falls, the rest of his offensive game will go with it. He has shown some pop this year that he hasn’t previously, with seven home runs and fifteen doubles, but power just isn’t part of Escobar’s game. Bottom line, I suppose you have to consider him the Brewers’ top prospect right now, but he’s pretty weak as a #1 guy.

Jeremy Jeffress is a riser. He’s pitching very well right now at high class A, putting up a 3.08 FIP and striking out over 32% of the hitters he’s faced. The guys over at Saber Scouting did a nice profile of him not too long ago, and there’s a lot to like. Of course, the off field issues raise some significant concerns. Personally, Jeffress would probably be my pick for best in the system right now, question marks and all. And really, how mature were any of us at 20 years old anyway? When I was 20, the girl I was seeing broke up with me to start dating her previous boyfriend again. I responded by sleeping with her older sister, her younger sister, and one of her closest friends. My point being, at that age, lots of us make very, very poor decisions. Jeffress has plenty of time to grow up. Hopefully, he takes advantage of it.

Cole Gillespie has been okay this season, but not much more than that. He does have a good walk rate to go with some power, so there is potential there.

Matt Gamel is a very interesting case. He’s continuing to follow the Ryan Braun career path, with a 1.042 OPS right now in Double A. However, he’s also getting by with a BABIP of over .400, so that’s probably going to come down. Still, this is a very, very talented offensive ballplayer. The only problem, of course, is that he’s still not so good at third base. The Brewers already moved Braun to left field and are set at first, so there’s really not a whole lot of room for a guy like Gamel. Best case, he’s probably trade bait.

Angel Salome may be the most intriguing player in the Brewers’ system at the moment. He’s putting up a .915 OPS at Double A as a 22 year old catcher. Intriguing enough for you? He’s also hit eight home runs this season. The odd thing about Salome is that he’s only 5’7″, though he weighs 190 lbs, so he’s pretty solid. As I said earlier, the Brewers only lack a homegrown player at catcher and center field, and Salome could very well fill the catcher hole in the next couple of years.

They lost one top ten prospect to trade and one to the big leagues, a probable top 15 sort of guy, and a borderline top 15. They added two top ten talents in the draft and have seen four of their previous top ten players have seasons that should push their values higher. I’m just eyeballing here, not doing a whole lot of research into what other teams have done to move up or down, so this is strictly an out of my — sort of number, but I think that we could actually see the Brewers jump up two or three spots by the time next year’s system rankings come out. Not bad for a team that managed to trade for one of the best pitchers in the game, huh?

To me, this really illustrates the difference between a system like the Cardinals and the Brewers. The Cards have made a ton of smart draft picks over the past four years, but they rarely go out and get the impact type talents that can buoy a system up even when you have to move some depth. The Brewers, on the other hand, even after virtually emptying their farm system to build a major league club and bring in a big time talent, have a couple of players that have a pretty good chance of being stars. The Cards’ system right now is probably in better shape, but I still think they could take a page from the Brewers’ book.

Okay. Going out on a limb completely and just tossing out a number, I say the Brewers’ system is ranked #19 next year. What say you?

Anyway, back when all the draft talk was still purely hypothetical, fewgoodcards, this site’s resident draft and college baseball expert, and I debated the merits of Brett Wallace, who of course eventually became the Cards’ pick in the first round. FGC was very high on Wallace, believing that he had as good a chance of becoming a major leaguer as anyone in the draft; I wasn’t a fan, believing that a draft pick as high as the one the Cards had this year should be spent on a more athletic player, a pure ceiling sort of talent. After watching the Super Regionals of the CWS and seeing Wallace play for Arizona State, I have to admit I’m coming around on the Walrus. Let’s take a look at what Mr. Wallace brings to the table, shall we?

Any discussion of Brett Wallace absolutely has to begin, obviously, with his bat. He was essentially drafted to play the position of hitter, after all. So, just how good a bat is it?

For my money, Brett Wallace was probably the single best hitter in the entire draft class. I felt that way even before he was drafted, just looking at his numbers, and the more I’ve seen the more I’ve become convinced that’s the case. Just to be clear, I include Pedro Alvarez, who went second overall to the Pirates, in that assessment as well. I think Wallace’s plate approach and swing path are both better than Alvarez’s, though Alvarez may have a tad more power. Why exactly Wallace wasn’t included in the sort of ‘group of four’ we saw in the draft this year of outstanding hitters, (Alvarez, Yonder Alonso, Justin Smoak, and Eric Hosmer) is beyond me.

Watching Wallace play in the CWS, I paid particular attention to his setup and swing path, trying to see if they look like they’ll translate to the pro game. I have to say, I don’t see him having any trouble whatsoever moving from metal bats to wood. His stroke is already short and direct, with none of the length and ‘grooved’ qualities you often see from college hitters. His setup, to me, is reminiscent of several great lefthanded sluggers, but none quite so much as another Arizona State alumnus, Barry Lamar Bonds. Both set up hanging right out over the plate, daring pitchers to try and throw the ball past them on the inside. Both have high hand positions, with short, quick twitch timing mechanisms. While watching Wallace, I was also struck by one last similarity that really surprised me. Wallace, much like Bonds, appears to choke up on the bat about an inch or so. I saw him do it each time the ESPN cameras cut to him as he was preparing to step in to the box. I can’t find a picture that confirms this, and unfortunately my DVR got erased during a recent electrical storm, so I can’t do a screen capture or anything to show it. If anybody out there happens to have visual proof of Wallace choking up on the bat, I would appreciate some assistance. I’m curious to see if this is a long term habit of his or something more recent. I hadn’t really seen too very much of Wallace firsthand before this year’s CWS, so I don’t know one way or the other. Choking up on the bat like that is quite unusual for a power hitter, who mostly try to get complete extension in their swings. It does, however, allow the hitter to get around more easily on inside pitches, making that right over the plate setup much more effective.

The swings of Mr. Wallace and Mr. Bonds continue to be similar through the swing path. The swings of both are very short through the ball, and both come from the inside of the midline. Both are also a bit more level than you would ordinarily expect from a power hitter, without the exaggerated backward tilt and uppercut swing path you see from players like Kyle Russell and his ilk. Wallace’s swing is geared more for line drive contact, but he has the bat speed and strength that plenty of those line drives are going to leave the park, especially the ones he gets under just the slightest little bit.

On the plate discipline side, Wallace is well advanced for a collegiate hitter. He was regularly pitched around in the Fresno State series, and for the most part, Wallace refused to expand his zone, taking his walks and waiting for pitches he could hit hard. He rarely got himself out on pitcher’s pitches, even though he was struggling a bit at the plate at the time. I can easily see Wallace posting an OBP in the .380-.400 range as a pro. He has excellent plate coverage, allowing him to foul off pitches he cannot do much with, thus extending at bats.

Enough about Wallace’s offense, though. We all know he’s going to hit. What about his glove? That’s always been the knock on him, that his defense and lack of athleticism is going to limit him to first base as a pro. After seeing Wallace play at third, I’m still unsure as to whether or not he’ll stick there long term.

He did make one outstanding play against Fresno that showed off his arm, at the very least. On a hard chopper down the line, Wallace ranged hard to his right, his momentum carrying him well into foul territory. He backhanded the ball, spun, and threw off balance, nicking the runner at first by a step.

I think that Wallace does have the feet to play third base. He’s much more nimble than you would think by looking at him, and he’s got the quickness and reflexes to play the hot corner. His hands are above average, and while he has awkward throwing mechanics, dropping down to throw, his arm appears strong enough to make the plays. The way he throws reminds me of Troy Glaus a little bit, actually. Both do that sort of sidearm flip of the ball, rather than coming over the top the way Scott Rolen always did. The lower angle could cause Wallace’s throws to tail toward his arm side, but I don’t think it should be a long term issue. He should be able to make the adjustment, I’m sure.

The only real concern I have about Wallace at third is his range. Third base is much more of a reaction position than a range position, but I still worry that Wallace’s lateral range isn’t sufficient to play there. In particular, there were a few balls to his left that I thought he would be able to get to that he didn’t, though I couldn’t tell where he was positioned prior to the play, so take that with a grain of salt. He also does a funny little hop oftentimes after he catches a ball, in order to get himself into position to throw. I assume that’s the sort of thing that can be worked on with proper coaching, but for now it has to be a bit of a negative. He ends up taking longer than necessary to release the ball, rather than just setting himself and throwing.

In the grand scheme of things, I still worry about Wallace’s ability to play at third base, but not as much as I did before I saw him play there. He has the quickness, hands, and arm to do it, but the range still seems a bit fringy. I think that how well Wallace is able to cover third may end up having at least something to do with who ends up playing next to him, at shortstop. With an above average defender at short, Wallace’s less than impressive range should be able to be covered. If the Cards end up with a player like David Eckstein playing shortstop again, though, the left side of the infield could very well become an issue. Wallace will definitely make the plays on the balls he gets to, but the Cardinals will need a player with good range next to him to make the left side of the infield suitably solid.

Alright, how about some grades? Present/Future

Hit for Average: 55/60

Plate Discipline: 55/65

Power: 50/55

I honestly think that Wallace could come straight to the big leagues and hit .250 right now. He would also hit for just enough power that pitchers couldn’t just lay the ball down the middle, so his OBP would be alright. Of course, he’ll be far better off with a couple years of seasoning, but he’s extremely advanced already.

Fielding- Hands: 50/50

Arm: 45/55

Range: 35/40

As I said before, I think Wallace has the arm and hands to become an average defender at third base. His range is what really concerns me. He appears to move better to his right than his left, but I base that only on a very limited sampling of what I saw him do. I give him a lower grade on his arm because of the slow release. If he can correct that as he develops in the minors, I think his arm may end up being a slight plus. If not, his throwing will be a definite concern at a position that requires a player to rely so much on being able to gun a runner down at times.

The future for Wallace is still very much based on what he ends up doing with his glove. If he sticks at third base, he could be one of the biggest steals in the entire draft. His bat at the hot corner would make him an All Star with even just adequate defense. If he ends up having to move off, though, his value drops greatly. I think he’ll hit enough to be an above average player even at first or DH, but he has limited value to the Cardinals in that role. Even as trade bait, though, Wallace will most likely turn out to be a solid value pick. He still wouldn’t have been my choice, to be perfectly honest. I wanted Odorizzi or a guy like Brett Lawrie, maybe Melville. After watching Wallace play, though, I think he’ll end up being a solid pick. The Cards went heavy on value early in this year’s draft, and Wallace is no exception. He’s riskier than everyone thinks, because there are significant questions about what he’ll become, but even if he falls short of his ultimate upside the Cards should be able to squeeze something worthwhile, if only in a Daric Barton sort of way.

As I said, he’s not exactly my cup of tea, but he could end up being a great pick. I’m going to have to hand it to Luhnow and company here; they could have done much, much worse than to pick Wallace.