Archive for the “2005 MLB draft” Category

Since 2000, the Cardinals have had 7 Compensation/Supplemental/Sandwich round picks after the first round. With 3 picks in the Sandwich round this year, let’s take a look at the previous sandwich rounds and the type of players the Cardinals decided to pursue. (Obvious caveat, all of these players were selected by a previous drafting and development team.)

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Back in 2010, I did a series looking back at the 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004 MLB Drafts and how the Cardinals did 6-10 years later. Now, let’s take a look at the 2005 MLB Draft and see how the Cardinals did 7 years later.

The 2005 MLB Draft was one of promise, potential, injury and ultimately disappointment so far for the Cardinals. Their high upside position players were beaming with potential that so far they have been unable to reach. Their starting pitchers looked great on paper, but ultimately ripped apart like paper. The 2005 MLB draft gave the Cardinals moribund minor leagues a much needed breath of fresh air, lifting them into the upper echelon of farm systems, but ultimately that did not reach the St. Louis Cardinals with as much energy as we were all hoping. There is still time for three of the draftees to increase their impact on the Cardinals franchise.  Let’s take a look pick by pick after the jump.

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With a downright awful 2010, Daryl Jones continues to be one of the more frustrating prospects in St. Louis’ system. What at times has been seen as a toolsy, athletic, above-average corner outfielder, is starting to look like an average fourth who doesn’t have the outfield instincts to stay at center, the arm for right, or the power for left.

Jones, an extremely athletic three-sport athlete in high school, was selected in the third round of the 2005 draft. After struggling to translate his tools to results in his first full two years of pro ball, Jones broke out in 2008, posting a .316/.407/.483 line with Palm Beach, and Springfield.

While he did hold on to a steady 21.5 LD% in 2009, his first full attempt at AA was hampered by a quad strain, and he’s never been the same since. While Jones has never been expected to hit for plus-power with his linear swing, he hasn’t even been capable of posting average power numbers lately, topping a .400 SLG in just one of his past nine months of ball. In ’10, his LD% trailed off to 19.7%. With a .292 BABIP, Jones posted a park-adjusted line of .241/.332/.345.

I had previously thought that if Jones could carry his success from ’08, and the first half of ’09, he could have a legitimate shot at earning a spot with the big league club in the 2011 Spring Training. That appears to be a long-shot now. And while Jones is still just 23-years-old, this stunt in progression is startling, and something to note, in my opinion.

What say you, readers? Is the injury still hampering him? Is it too early to give up on a 23-year-old? Has your projection of his upside been changed considerably with his awful ’10 season?

Just going to drop some quick numbers from the first round (non supplemental) of the 2005 draft. Out of 30 players selected:

12 were pitchers. 7 made it to the majors. They’ve accumulated 19.2 WAR to date* or 1.6 WAR return per draftee. The most productive pitcher selected in the first round thus far was Matt Garza with 9.1 WAR nearly half of the entire class’s value.

18 were hitters. 16 made it to the majors. They’ve accumulated 75.5 WAR to date or 4.2 WAR return per draftee. The most productive hitter selected was Ryan Zimmerman at over 19 WAR. Honorable mentions to Ryan Braun – 13 and Troy Tulowitzki – 11.

10 were high schoolers. 6 made it to the majors. 18.1 WAR total; 1.8 WAR return per draftee.  Justin Upton gets the props from this group with 5 WAR. Has anyone done a study on average age to reach the majors for players drafted out of HS? I would think these numbers are depressed by longer stints in the minors and being in the majors prior to their physical peak.

20 were college draftees. 17 made it to the majors. 76.6 WAR total; 3.8 WAR return per draftee. Zimmerman with the win again.

Tyler Greene doesn’t look so great relative to average but I’d expect Colby Rasmus to pull close to the average line by the end of the season.

Data table after jump –

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First off, a quick apology.  I’ve been delinquent in my scouting reports over the last several weeks (after asking for suggestions nonetheless) but I’m hopeful that with my schedule settling down a bit, I’ll be able to get back to that.

Second, the system is, without a doubt, experiencing a real down spell right now.  The draft this year was a nice diversion but the boxscores have been painful to cover as of late with very few of the top prospects having consistent standout performances.  Does that mean we’ve overrated the prospects?  Maybe in some cases (I’m looking at you Bryan Anderson) but we’ve also seen some serious injuries (David Freese, Jaime Garcia) and some promotions (Chris Perez, Jason Motte, and that centerfield kid).

The combination of moving some of our highly rated players up to the bigs and a system wide slump has made the minor league season a bit of a drag thus far.  There’s still some bright spots out there (Daniel Descalso, Daryl Jones) and some interesting topics of discussion but I wanted to take a look back at the previous drafts and where they stand now.  We’ll start with, of course, Jeff Luhnow’s first and arguably best draft in 2005.

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