Archive for the “2009 MLB Draft” Category

I hope none of the other mods mind, but I thought I would throw up this post to congregate the Shelby Miller signings announcements, rumors, prices, links etc.

Here’s the tip of the iceberg from Jonathan Mayo:

Source tells me Shelby Miller has indeed agreed to terms with Cards.  No. 19 pick in #mlbdraft will indeed get $2.9 mil as I guestimated.

UPDATE It’s official, if it wasn’t already:

Per BA

The Cardinals have signed first-round pick Shelby Miller for $2,875,000. His bonus is the highest in the first round this year, the second-highest for a drafted player in club history and well over MLB’s $1,386,000 recommendation for the No. 19 slot.

These days, we’re spoiled for statistical information on our favorite big league players, and it’s trickled down to the minors as well. But we just don’t see a lot of quantitative analysis on college players around the ‘net. It’s a shame, too, because when hearing name after name being called on draft day, there’s little we know about the players who are being called and how they truly performed against their peers. Sure, the top players get some ink, but after the first couple of rounds we’re left with some superficial college stats that may look good on the surface but tell us nothing about the context they were in.

Thankfully, there are some hard workers out there like Mike Rogers, who have taken the time to apply some of the advanced metrics to the college game to give us more information on some of these draft picks out of the D-I schools. He’s also been kind enough to share with me his findings. Mike has used Tango’s wOBA (weighted on-base average) for players, as well as speed scores, isolated power, walk rates, strikeout rates and the like to find some of the top college performers in the draft. He’s even applied things like strength of schedule, average conference stats and park factors for context.

Now, I recommend reading the scouting reports first. Tools trump performance in evaluating amateurs. Just because someone is a good college baseball player doesn’t guarantee success at the major league level. But this does tell us more about what these players have done, and one thing we know, the Cardinals highly value track record in many ways.

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Now we get to the organizational filler, but one or more of these guys could possibly distinguish themselves. In lieu of scouting reports, I’ll share what numbers I find relevant. But really, the numbers aren’t that relevant, because we know so little of the context. If they were high on tools, they probably wouldn’t have been drafted where they are, but you never know.

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You can share your thoughts on all things round 31-50 of the draft in the comments. I still can’t believe they found a way to drag this thing out this long. The draft starts at 10:30. BA has it’s list of the best remaining players on the board. I’ll be semi-around, I have some real life responsibilities to take care of today.

Last year the Cardinals drafted LHP Sam Freeman in the 32nd round, and Curt Smith in the 39th.  Both players I’d say are C prospects, but to find a C prospect this late in the draft means you as a team have done your homework. Freeman has a 2.94 FIP at Palm Beach and looks like an interesting left-handed arm out of the bullpen, and Smith has batted over .300 both at High A and now AA.

Quick announcement: I’ll be on UCB Radio tonight at 9:30 to talk all things draft.

Here’s some quick snap shots of who the Cardinals took on Day 2
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We’ll be here at 10:30am again to discuss all things draft. Also, be sure to follow me on twitter for updates as well.

9th round – RHP Nick McCulley, Coastal Carolina. Sinker-baller. 2.10 ERA, K’d 64 in 78 innings. Saved 8 games. Yet another reliever.

10th round – LHP Hector Hernandez, Puerto Rico Baseball Academy. Here’s your lefty. Finally. Projectable lefty, throws 88-90 MPH sinker now. Good curve, changeup. Jaime Garcia, part 2?

11th round – 1B Alan Ahmady, Fresno State.  Hit .326/.478/.520 this past season. Has 48 walks to 24 strikeouts. That sticks out right there.

Now the Cardinals are going the college-performer route. First they go with Brooks Conley, an OF out of the U. of Washington.  Seems like a one-dimensional slugger to me, but for the 7th round, that’s not bad. Conley hit .303/.401/.645 for Washington, and the Huskie’s home ballpark very much favors pitchers. I have his Gross Production Average (a variant of OPS, scaled to batting average) at a .365, adjusting for strength of schedule and park. So he has some pretty nice power.

Stidham is a middle infielder and like Conley put up some pretty prodigous numbers. He hit .363/.465/.650, good for a adjusted GPA of .363. Can’t find anything really on him, scouting-wise. He’s a left-handed hitter, and for a middle infielder the numbers are pretty outstanding.

Talk about bloodlines of a champion: Per BA.

Hill, a 35th-rounder last year (Athletics), is a 6-foot, 190-pounder who hit .462 with 10 homers and 27 stolen bases this spring. An exciting and aggressive player, he flashes a rare combination of speed and power. Hill is still a bit raw after missing a year in high school to run track and play football. He has tremendous athleticism and bloodlines, as both of his parents were Olympians. His mother Denean Howard-Hill won a silver medal in the 1988 Olympics in the 4×400 meter relay. His father Virgil Sr. also won a silver medal, as a boxer in the 1984 Olympics. He later won the WBA cruiserweight title.

Check out his dad’s website.

Says BA’s draft blog:

The Cardinals took injured Ole Miss righthander Scott Bittle, who has a tear (or strain) in his right shoulder capsule, depending on who you talk to. When healthy, though, Bittle is ridiculously good, with a premium mid-80s cutter.

Bittle struck out 16 per nine innings last season, 14 per nine this past season. He was drafted by the Yankees last year, in the 2nd round, but the Yankees didn’t sign him once they got the medicals on his shoulder. If he’s healthy, great, but I’m not real thrilled with this pick, as my off the cuff reaction. Yet another reliever.

Here’s Bryan Smith’s take:

Scott Bittle in the fourth round to the Cards is really interesting. The Rebels had to shut him down this year with an arm injury, but in the weeks prior, he was as dominant as anyone in the nation. He has a nasty cutter that makes him hell on right-handers, and he’s a senior: cheap sign. I like that pick, although I wonder if they could have got it off 1-2 rounds later.

Ryan Jackson is a premium glove with a horrid bat. He’s the NCAA’s answer to Adam Everett. He did hit .360 as a sophomore, so maybe it was just a bad year. BA ranked him their 80th best draft available player. Defense is often underrated, so I think this is an underrated pick.