Archive for the “2010 MLB Draft” Category

Since 2000, the Cardinals have had 7 Compensation/Supplemental/Sandwich round picks after the first round. With 3 picks in the Sandwich round this year, let’s take a look at the previous sandwich rounds and the type of players the Cardinals decided to pursue. (Obvious caveat, all of these players were selected by a previous drafting and development team.)

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Obviously, the Major League Baseball draft differs heavily from other sports amateur drafts as far as seeing results immediately. Most teams don’ determine their decisions in the draft by what their highest level club needs, so often fans will have to wait three or four years before they can start to see the fruits of their clubs front office’s labor. However, thanks to some folks much smarter than I, we  have data available to estimate the average Wins-Above-Replacement levels of picks based upon where they are selected, what position they play, and what level of play they are advancing from. Using Alex Pedicini’s post over at HardballTimes, we can apply this study to the Cardinals top picks of the ’10 draft .

If you don’t feel like checking out Pedicini’s post, here are the WAR/year averages of each player selected in the first, second and third rounds from the 1992-1999  drafts…

First Round

College hitters– 1.336 WAR/year
High School hitters– 1.204 WAR/year
College pitchers– .649 WAR/year
High School pitchers– .878 WAR/year

Second Round

College hitters– .773 WAR/year
High School hitters– .672 WAR/year
College pitchers– .087 WAR/year
High School pitchers– .084 WAR/year

Third Round

College hitters– .115 WAR/year
High School hitters– .424 WAR/year
College pitchers– (.023) WAR/year
High School pitchers– .058 WAR/year

With St. Louis having five picks in the first three rounds, their total would be something around 1.9 WAR, but that would be counting Tyrell Jenkins as second round talent. Jenkins, a player who would have surely been selected in the first round had signability not been an issue, adds nearly a full win if he is grouped into first round talent-average.

Let’s see how St. Louis faired against the rest of the National League Central. Since we gave Jenkins the first round value treatment, we will do the same for the rest of the division if they selected a player outside of the first round that  qualifies in the first thirty of Keith Law’s most recent Top 100. I’m giving teams Scouting/Player-Development departments the benefit of the doubt for questionable selections outside of the first round. Though, maybe I shouldn’t, considering Ed Wade is in play here…

St. Louis– 2.73 WAR/year (5 picks)
Houston– 2.56 WAR/year (5 picks)
Reds– 2.22 WAR/year (3 picks)
Pittsburgh– 1.87 WAR/year (3 picks)
Chicago– 1.67 WAR/year (3 picks)
Milwaukee– .107 WAR/year * (2 picks)

* Milwaukee failed to sign their first round selection.

This is not an indicator for how the Cardinals did in the draft as a whole. If I had more time, resources, and brainpower, I might be able to pull something off like that. Looking at the picks on a piece of paper, they did well, in my opinion, but we cannot forget the importance of player procurement that can turn late round picks into legitimate prospects, but hopefully this gives you a picture of how the Cardinals appear to have done at the top of their draft, based on historical studies.

I’m having trouble with the CoverItLive software and the WordPress software so I’ll just force you to Click Here for the live chat.

I’ve got some big news coming re: the site but I realized that if I posted it today, it would undoubtedly be overshadowed by someone signing or not signing.

Zach Cox, Austin Wilson and Jordan Swaggerty conversations can go here. One note: I’ve mistakenly thought that Swaggerty was a senior.  He’s a draft eligible sophomore — same as Cox.  I still expect him to sign but given that today is the deadline that might be less of a sure proposition. Sounds like he’s looking for overslot bonus money.

Zach Cox Signed (Credit to Kendall Rogers again.)

Austin Wilson Did Not Sign (Per Keith Law.)

Jordan Swagerty Signed (Looks like the credit goes here.)

Update: Matthew Leach confirms in blog post.

Zach Cox and Austin Wilson are both good players.  They also represent two extremes of player development. Zach Cox was the best college bat in the 2010 draft – polished, powerful, advanced approach at the plate. Austin Wilson is a young high school player built like a someone a decade his elder. He’s raw and athletic but exceedingly talented.  It’s not necessarily an either or decision for the Cardinals when it comes to these two players but, if they are mutually exclusive, which player is the better sign? Read the rest of this entry »

Law has the signing at $1.3M. According to Baseball America, that would be nearly twice MLB’s recommended slot.

With the signing deadline now less than a week away, I guess this post is due.  I’ve been largely quiet regarding Zach Cox and Austin Wilson thus far because a) I don’t have anything official to report and b) the rumors weren’t very thick until the last few days.  It’s still difficult to get an exact feel for which direction the Cardinals will take, which should tell you a lot about the direction of this post.

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Looks like Tyrell Jenkins is headed for baseball. The Cardinals 3rd pick overall indicated to Baylor football coach that he won’t report for pre-season drills.

The Cardinals have yet to announce an agreement with Tyrell Jenkins but all indications are that he’ll sign this week.

Link

(Thanks to Dustin Mattison & 2xAught7 for the tweets linking to the Baylor report.)

I get e-mails or comments on occasion asking me about players and why they haven’t signed yet or if I think they will.  Occasionally I hear rumblings by about a certain player but more often than not, there’s just not that much to relay. These things take time and they’re very fluid negotiations.  Via BJ Rains, we get this tweet:

Luhnow not excited about talks with Zack Cox, has talked with Austin Wilson: http://tinyurl.com/33denll

To start with, the tweet is misleading. Read the exact quote from Luhnow in the article (which has good info by the way):

Asked if he was confident that the Cardinals and Cox would be able to meet in the middle on a contract before the August 16 deadline, Cardinals’ vice president of scouting and player development Jeff Luhnow didn’t seem overly enthused.

“No because our first selection was part available to us because of some desires that other clubs weren’t willing to even consider,” Luhnow said. “I think that one could be a lengthy process. …We knew that there was a disconnect between what most clubs probably had as a value and what the player was stating that he was wanting to come out as a sophomore, especially elite players at the top of the draft, so we’ll just have to wait and see.”

The key is the lead. Luhnow may not be confident that they’ll meet in the middle, but that’s a far cry from being “not excited” about being able to sign Cox. There’s some liberal interpretation being used in my opinion. The reality is that Luhnow is wise to take a hard line for two reasons: 1) Austin Wilson is great leverage until he firmly says ‘no’ and 2) Cox would be drafted lower in the 2011 draft. Luhnow and the Cardinals have an unusual amount of leverage over the draft-eligible sophomore and I expect them to use it forcefully, as they should.

There’s some updates on Seth Blair, Jordan Swaggerty & Tyrell Jenkins.  Also some words on Austin Wilson. I remain unreasonably optimistic that Wilson will sign and that the Cardinals will open up my least favorite euphemism “DeWallet” to get that deal done.  Wilson would instantly be a top 5 prospect in the system given his projection, current skills and body type.

To summarize, I expect the Cardinals to sign Blair and Swaggerty without issue. Zach Cox & Austin Wilson will drag things out to the end but one or both will likely sign. Tyrell Jenkins is more of an enigma to me and I’d not be surprised by a yes or no decision from him.

Sub-titled: Why this draft was conservative and you should still like it.

The Cardinals have long been criticized because of what draft watchers consider and over-fondness for college players resulting in low upside drafts.  These critics point at a system largely devoid of high ceiling talent as evidence of the conservative drafts.

The flipside of this is that college players are categorically more likely to return value in the major leagues to a club in the first two rounds.  It’s really not even close when considering the averages. The psychological aspect of human mind rarely rewards probabilistic thinking and is far more inclined to think in absolutes or hyperbolic statements.

So while the Cardinals approach the draft in a way that is most likely to offer the highest return on their investments, they leave themselves open to criticism that argues that they’re not picking the safe college picks instead of the high reward-high risk high school players.  It’s a catch-22.

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