Allen Craig

Craig has seen some action in St. Louis, and he struggled with inconsistent playing time, but he did show signs of his natural hitting ability in his last stint at the end of 2010. Craig has been a hitter since he joined the system, boasting a plus tool in power, and natural hitting ability. He’ll hit for a decent average, and his above-average plate discipline will yield enough walks for him to get on at an decent rate. I thought it was good to see him work on his discipline since he entered the system, improving his walk rate at a pretty steady increase as he continued to advance and face tougher competition.

That competition might have exposed him a bit in ’10 with St. Louis. Big league off-speed, and breaking stuff tricked him. He showed improvement yet again towards the end of the year, staying back on a couple of breaking balls, and using his strong weight transfer and swing leverage to produce some extra base hits. Projections for Craig have varied, but with a little help from our friend Rui over at GasHouseGraphs.com, we’ve got a graphical matrix look at the payroll flux, and WAR projections with a 2012 and beyond roster of Craig replacing Pujols’ plate appearances.

The right side graph on each year is the projected WAR. The bars on the left are “paid-for-WAR,” which was created by Rui converting the 2011 salaries into WAR, and then implying an 8% inflation rate for each year from 2012-2016. So to find the payroll numbers you’d multiply the left side by 4.5 for ’11, 4.86 for ’12, and so on…

Using player wOBA from ZiPS, and a league average wOBA of .335, plus the assumed PA total of 636 (Pujols’ ZiPS projection), Craig projects to keep St. Louis around 75-78 wins in 2012, with his highest WAR total coming in 2014 with about a 3-win season, and I think he has the tools to exceed that ceiling.

Maybe the most attractive component of the Craig route would be the monetary flexibility. The payroll commitments for 2012 would be around $70 million, which leaves plenty of cash to spend on nine roster spots. With Craig at first, and smart investments elsewhere, the Cardinals could easily be in the mid-80s in terms of wins in their first year without Pujols.

Looking past 2012 with Craig at first, St. Louis’ system has loads of high upside, cost controlled pitching talent on the way that gives reason to believe 90-win seasons wouldn’t be too far away in life without Pujols, and Chris Carpenter. If the improving farm system can provide more flexibility, challenges like keeping Adam Wainwright, or balancing payroll around a long-term contract like Matt Holliday’s won’t be so bad.

Mark Hamilton

At 26, Hamilton has had a hard time breaking into the big leagues. The near future doesn’t look any brighter for him with almost no shot at making the big club out of camp in ’11. From what we hear, he’s not very good defensively, and he lacks the versatility to make his best tool — his bat — an attribute that could benefit a bench role. He shows good plate discipline, and recognizing pitch types well with the ability to go the other way. Hamilton draws walks, and generates good leverage in his swing to produce plenty of doubles and long balls. He still hasn’t been able to figure out left-handed pitching, but does he ever rake against righties.

He hit a bit of a wall when he got to Springfield his first time in 2007, and he even had trouble his second go around at AA in 2008, but in the past two years he’s posted a .900 OPS twice in a combination of time at Springfield and Memphis. Looking at another matrix Rui made for Hamilton, St. Louis would probably not be getting enough production at a position like first base with Hamilton starting there from 2012 and on. With a bat that crushes righties like Hamilton, it would be nice to find a bench spot for him somewhere if he can find a way to be more versatile in the field.

Here’s an outlook on the roster with Hamilton being the everyday first basemen using the same methods we used for Craig:

Payroll wouldn’t differ too much from Craig playing, but you’d probably be looking at something slightly less in wins in ’12 and beyond. With the aging curves applied, Hamilton would plateau around the age of 30 with a 1.7 WAR year in 2014. Keep in mind we’re assuming average defense here, so that would project Hamilton as nothing special at the plate either. At a corner position like first, the Cardinals probably can’t afford to have a bat that just isn’t producing. With Hamilton’s lefty split struggles and minimal defensive value, going down a route where he gets 600 PA probably isn’t ideal.

Matt Adams

After Craig, and Hamilton, there are a number of first base prospects that could be thrown into the conversation as additional replacements, but none of them are really close enough to be a viable option in ’12. It would take a huge year and camp performance for Matt Adams to be there the year after next, but he certainly has the best bat at that position in all of the system, and I think there’s reason to be excited about his future.

After being touted as maybe the top Division-II hitter, he was a 23rd round selection in ’09, and he’s continued to hit in his first two years of professional ball. Adams broke into the system hitting above .340 at rookie ball, and Low-A, with a combined .424 wOBA to boot (yeah, that’ll do.) He measures in around 6’3, 230, and he does a good job of generating exceptional power by staying back well, and quick hands.

For a guy who gets big power, you don’t see a ton of swing-and-misses from Adams, which is encouraging. While he does draw walks at an okay clip, I think he’ll need to be a little more patient as starts to face better competition. He extended his success in 2010 with a .393 wOBA, including 22 homers, and 41 doubles in 510 PA. He’s going to start 2011 in Springfield, and while I’m not worried about how an above-averGe hitter will do in, you know, the bandbox that is Hammons Field — or just the Texas League in general — it should be noted that this is where Hamilton really hit a wall.

Now, Adams certainly has a higher ceiling than Hamilton at this point, but competition does pickup in AA, so to just go ahead and assume that because he raked at Johnson City, Batavia, and Quad Cities, then he’ll be fine because he’s at a smaller park in Springfield would be a little premature, in my opinion.

A glance at Craig’s minor league stats reveal a player that has consistently been an above average performer if never a truly elite performer.  He posted his lowest wRC+ (*) in 2006 — his first year — with just a 120.  Since then he’s posted a 147, 129, 141 and 138 as he worked his way from Palm Beach to Memphis.

Offensively, Craig is a line drive contact hitter who has regularly hit above .300 and draws a middling number of walks. He’s show good power hitting 20+ homeruns on three separate occasions with an isolated power around .200 for his career.  These are all very good statistics and it’s consistently surprising that, given his offense, he’s been relegated to something of an afterthought within the organization.

The reasoning for that, however, is not entirely opaque. Craig has been perceived as a player without a position.  Primarily a third baseman in the minors, the Cardinals acquired David Freese and drafted Brett Wallace (in a farcical third base experiment) before moving Craig to right field.  While he’s athletic enough to play the outfield, Craig’s arm doesn’t profile as a significant advantage and average defense is the most likely outcome of the transition.

2010 was riddled with bad luck for Craig. Despite hitting 22.5% of his balls in play as line drives, his BABIP was a mere .282.  That’s well below what we’d expect and it weighed heavily on his .246 batting average.  He continued to display the requisite secondary skills to be a valuable player (hitting for power and drawing some walks) but the results were undeniably uncharacteristic for Craig.

Even with these shortcomings, the pros clearly outweigh the cons and, barring the unforeseen, Craig should be a prominent part of the 2011 Cardinals. With the acquisition of Lance Berkman, Craig will serve as a backup in the outfield and potentially at third base as well.  ZiPS sees a nice future for Craig projecting his 2011 slash stats at .280/.333/.438.  That would be slightly above league average offensively and would give Craig the “introduction” he needs to be considered for a potentially larger role in the future.

*wRC+ is essentially a measure of offense using linear weights to determine how many runs a player was worth. That total is turned into a rate stat and the rate is them compared to league average. Thus, a wRC+ of 100 is league average; above 100 is good and below 100 is bad.

Jon Jay up. He’s your fourth outfielder who is likely to spell Ludwick and Holliday on their offdays. Mather in center on Colby’s offdays make the most sense to me since those offdays should be against lefties when needed.

Allen Craig optioned. Not unexpected and makes some sense to let Craig get regular playing time and get things going.

Felipe Lopez to the DL. I hope this isn’t worse than it turns out to be. Makes you wonder if this wasn’t some of the delay with his offseason contract.

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Ryan Ludwick was signed to a 1-year contract in January and will be in his last season of club control in 2011. At 5.45M in 2010, he’s likely to be worth his salary. Assuming $4M/WAR, Ludwick would need to produce around 2.2 WAR on the season.* CHONE projected him for a 2.0 WAR season in 2010. He’s now a year removed from the monstrous 5 WAR season he had in 2008.

So what would a 2 WAR season look like for Ludwick? Well, a lot like 2009. He hit for a .336 wOBA (.269/.329/.467) against a league average of .329. Ludwick has continued to be an average fielder in RF and projected that way again in 2010 by CHONE. So Ludwick amassing a .340 wOBA over about 600PAs would get him into the 2 WAR level. That’s not a tall order for him and he certainly has the capacity to produce well beyond that.

But 2011 is a trickier topic. He’ll make more money, likely approaching 9M**, meaning he’ll need to be producing at a higher rate something closer to 3 WAR. If he plays well in 2010 that arbitration salary could be eve higher. Regardless of the specifics of his 2011 contract, the Cardinals are going to be hard pressed to keep Ludwick around because of the financial constraints imposed by 3 big pitching contracts and a pair of mega position player contracts.

So, who in the system has a chance of being that replacement in 2011? Well, the first and possibly best bet are a pair of recent grads residing on the major league roster already. Joe Mather is currently relegated to a backup CF role and it might be to the detriment of the team overall as he represents a nice combination of defense and potential offense. With the need to hold him in reserve for emergency CF duties, the likelihood is that he won’t see consistent or even significant playing time. Mather’s window for creating a Jayson Werth (or even a Ryan Ludwick!) type career for himself has been hampered by recent wrist injuries and, like everyone not named Benjamin Button, he isn’t getting any younger.

Allen Craig, having already seen time in RF in 2010, is the second candidate to consider. I’ve written about him extensively and, perceived organizational indifference towards his defense aside, I like his bat to be the most prolific of the right field candidates for the future.

On the minor’s side, the Cardinals will look for a pair of players to put together strong seasons at Memphis and create viable alternatives to Mather/Craig. Jon Jay, repeating his time in Memphis is the most serious contender. 2008 represented an offensive zenith for Jay as he posted very good numbers in Springfield (.306/.379/.407) over 400+ PAs. Jay’s 2009 tour at Memphis was underwhelming with a .338 OBP but his major calling card would be the completeness of his game in RF. A plus defender in the outfield, his minor league numbers have been nothing short of fantastic. He looks to be worth upwards of a full win in the field so the offensive threshold for being a productive player is much lower for Jay. Simply being league average offensively makes him a better than average player.

More of a long shot but one of my favorite players in the system right now is Tyler Henley. More along the lines of Jay than Craig, Henley is an above average fielder (only slightly by the metrics but I like him as +5 in a corner) and an good hitter who has yet to misstep in the minors. Henley’s options and limited time in the minors make his ascension somewhat less likely as he’s not even on the 40-man roster yet. It’s hard to completely discount Henley but he faces the largest obstacles on the list.

There’s a handful of players that aren’t real options in Memphis. Amaury Cazana Marti (age), Shane Robinson (lack of offense) and Mark Shorey (defense) are not real options in RF. In Springfield, Adron Chambers and Daryl Jones are too far removed from the majors to be considered real candidates. It’s not impossible that the Cardinals will retain Ryan Ludwick in 2011. The possibility of saving $8M while only taking a minor downgrade on paper is hard to ignore though. With the amount of committed dollars the Cardinals have in the next few years and the impending re-signing of one Albert Pujols, Ryan Ludwick represents the easiest expensive player for the team to replace.

*This includes the typical 60% discount that player contracts in Arb year 2 represent. Thus, Ludwick needs to produce at a level consumate with a $9M free agent.

** Arb year 3 represents a 80% discount from free agent prices.

There are a couple of options in the minors to fill in left field should Matt Holliday be signed elsewhere and the Cardinals choose not to pursue other free agents.  You could make a case for players like Nick Stavinoha or Shane Robinson, whom have both already had a bit of time in the majors, to be considered.  Both come with significant downfalls, defensive ones and offensive ones respectively.  Jon Jay makes for a better discussion as he hits more than Robinson while fielding quite well.  But when talking about left field, the most likely in house alternative seems to be Allen Craig.

A player who is supposedly without a defensive position (though I still can’t fathom the move away from 3rd), Craig has been a consistent producer at each stop in the minors.  Over the last three years, he’s posted the following wOBAs beginning in 2007: .400, .386, .400.  It’s worth noting that the last two come in hitter friendly environments but it’s obvious that Craig is doing something right with the bat.  Maintaining an average over .300 with a high-OBP from decent walk rates, Craig has flashed plus-power hitting 20 HRs each year and no less than 25 doubles.

So what does Craig offer?  Taking his statistics from last season in which he hit .322/.374/.547, I’ve gotten translations from both Minor League Splits and Baseball Prospectus.  I don’t believe either set of minor league equivalencies (MLEs) is “open source” and even if it was, I won’t pretend that I’m personally in a position to evaluate its efficacy.  Nonetheless, it’s been my experience that BP has very optimistic translations (both regular and peak) and Minor League Splits seems more realistic.  That’s a totally subjective and anecdotal evaluation but it’s what I’m going to use to try and baseline his performance for next year.

His 2009 stats using BP’s regular translation paint a rosy picture of a player that hits almost as well in the majors posting a line of .296/.345/.516.  That .364 wOBA seems very optimistic even to someone who has been a long time Craig advocate. I personally think that Craig could easily replicate a league average offensive season of .330 wOBA. Let’s assume that’s the high end of his projection meaning that Craig has a 20% chance of posting that line.  We’ll use the Minor League Splits MLE for a low projection with a translation of .270/.315/.438 good for a .318 wOBA.  We’ll assign a 50% chance that chance of that.  We’ll also assume a 10% chance that he’s a total bust with a .297 wOBA.

Converting each of those to runs we’ve got +20, 0, -7 and -20*.  Using the percentages above, that would give us an overall offensive run production of about half a run.  That jives with my personal projection nicely.  If you want the slash stat equivalent, think .275/.330/.425 or Melky Cabrera 2009.

Of course, that’s only one piece of the puzzle.  Defense is far more of a crapshoot given that there’s little to no data on Craig in the outfield.  He was rated as something around average at 3B by TotalZone (a psuedo play-by-play statistic available at Minor League Splits) but his skillset doesn’t seem like it would translate all that well to the outfield.  He’s not particularly fast and his arm doesn’t rate any better than average.  Moving from a more difficult fielding position to a corner outfield position we’d expect his defensive numbers to go up but I’m unwilling to make that assumption.  I also have a hard time envisioning him as a worse fielder than some of the current MLB corner outfielders.  We’ll call him a nuetral defender in left but you could rate him +/- 5 and I wouldn’t argue with you.

The positional adjustment for LF is -7.5 runs.  Replacement adjustment is +20 runs.

Together that gives us a player who is about 13 runs above replacement or about 1.3 WAR.  This seems like an eminently reasonable assessment of Craig.  It could be worse; it could also be better but ~1 WAR seems like what should be reasonably expected.

So whenever the options in left field are listed and the rumors fly thick and fast, ask if the incremental WAR increase from free agent A or trade target B is worth the incremental cost increase from Allen Craig.

*Note: All run totals are based on 700 PAs or an equivalent set of defensive innings.  Pro-rate the final number based on playing time.

The Cardinals have, frankly, been abysmal at producing middle infielders.  2B has been a turnstyle of players for several years now. They’ve brought in adequate replacements from veteran castoffs to pick up the slack but the team is continually thin at the position.  The collection of “competitors” this year should inspire little hope that the long term answer is about to be found.  Joe Thurston, Brendan Ryan and Skip are all marginal possibilities at 2B but they don’t represent anything approaching a real solution or even a league average player.  They also reek of reactionary moves rather than proactive decisions.

Current positional adjustments would lend credence to the notion that the difference between 3rd bsaeman and 2nd basemen is minimal at best.  Coincidentally, the Cardinals have sn abundance of 3rd basemen in the system.  If the Cardinals are serious about making a 2nd basemen for the long term, they should be looking to Allen Craig and not Skip Schumaker.  Craig is a touch below average at 3rd base, so it’s reasonable to expect him to be a -5 defender at the keystone.

Player – wOBA CHONE – Defense in runs

Craig – .325 – (-5)
Schumaker – .328 – (-10)
Thurston – .322 – (0)
Ryan – .308 – (0)

Looks to me like Craig is the equivalent of those other players but here’s the kicker — he’s still got some semblance of upside.  Schumaker and Thurston aren’t going to become anything more than what they already are.  Ryan’s bat is probably done developing but you could argue that he’s a better than neutral defender.  Craig is about to get squeezed out of the organization between David Freese and Brett Wallace.  Why aren’t the Cardinals proactively trying to prevent this?  There’s been rumblings of trying him in the outfield but really only moves the congestion rather than relieving it.

Losing Kennedy isn’t a big deal.  Thurston and Schumaker make for adequate short term answers.  Holding par shouldn’t be the standard we want the Cardinals to live up to though.  Get creative and move Craig to 2B.  Let Freese play in the bigs and Wallace learn his defense in AAA.  It’s an equal or better solution than anything we’ve seen the Cardinals present to date and it’s the only one that realistically represents an internal upgrade in the long term.

[edit: Kevin Goldstein's Top 11 may come out today.  Feel free to discuss that in this thread as well.]

azruavatar: David Freese obviously hit our rankings like a ton of bricks this year.  Perhaps we should be thankful that the Cardinals make as few trades as they do in recent memory given the disparity between how well we know Cardinal draftees from day one and how well we (or anyone for that matter) know some random prospect from another team.  That said, I’m not sure I see a difference between Allen Craig and David Freese.  I ranked them #9 and #8, respectively, but that could have just as easily gone the other way.

roarke: The difference, for me, comes down to their levels.  I am a really big fan of Craig, but he put up his good numbers at AA, while Freese was a level closer to the big leagues.  That gives Freese a bit of an advantage in my mind.  I also think that hitting at a high level in Memphis is inherently more impressive than doing so in the hitter’s environment of Springfield.  On top of the level difference, I think defense comes into play.  Freese is probably capable of being the backup 3B this year, but I’m not sure that anyone is sold on Craig having the ability to play 3B in the majors.

azruavatar: The lack of anything resembling a public and  reliable defensive statistic is crippling when talking about defense.  Beyond the fact that we’ve all seen players that “look” great and turn out to be average, the difference between a player that looks above average and one that looks below average is really difficult to put in objective terms without a stat.  Are we talking about a +2 and a -2 player or a +8 and a -7 player? Impossible to know.

erik: It is hard to know for sure, but for what it’s worth, (and it may not be much) we do have BP’s FRAA, which has Freese a +15 player this past season. Of course, BP’s magic formula for calculating FRAA isn’t based on play by play info and they don’t really explain it. We are told to accept it by faith. Last year we had Dan Fox’s Simple Fielding Runs, which is explained in some detail and actually correlated pretty well with UZR and Dewan’s +/- . It had Freese as a +12 defender for Lake Elsinore. So at least we can say have two metrics that come from “smart people” that conclude that David Freese is an outstanding defender at 3B. We also know that Freese was named BA’s best defensive 3B in 2007 by managers and coaches of the California League, so we a little scouting to go with the numbers.  For me, factoring in his glove and the fact that he leapfrogged AA  gave Freese the slight edge for me.  Freese should stick at the hot corner while it sounds like Craig is a strong candidate to play as a corner outfielder this year at Memphis. That diminishes his stock some, as the system is rather full of corner outfielders as it is.

roarke: I really don’t have Freese and Craig that far apart, in reality.  On my list Freese was #4 and Craig was #10, but you can’t look at that in a vacuum.  The guys in between them for me were Jones, Anderson, Motte, Todd and Jay.  I really think that is a solid group of second tier prospects that all fall really close.  I give Freese the edge on Craig, but I don’t think the difference is quite as big as might be expected between a #4 and #10 prospect.  The depth in our system really shows there because you could randomize the order of the back half of the top ten and it wouldn’t seem unreasonable.

erik: Going back to my point about the defensive metrics for just a moment. I thought it was important I give Craig his fair shake by looking up his defensive metrics. BRAA has him at a +5 last season. SFR had him at +3 in 2007. So it’s not like Craig is an awful third baseman, at least if you can believe the stats. I dug up my BA Prospect Handbook to see what they said about each player’s defense. Of Craig, BA said “His range is limited, his arm is no better than average and he doesn’t look smooth when throwing, but he makes plays and the Cardinals think he can stick at the hot corner”.  For Freese, ” [SD] has been pleased with his consistency at third base, where he has shown solid-average range, hands and actions to go with an average throwing arm”. Again, Freese wins, but it’s not like he’s worlds apart from Craig. Perhaps it’s not completely fair for me to say Craig’s value is going to be diminished by moving to a corner OF spot when he’s shown he can at least adequately handle the position. It’s no fault of Craig, but rather because there’s a logjam at the position and neccessity may dictate it. Unfortunately for Craig, there’s an organizational logjam in the outfield as well.

azruavatar: 3B has certainly become a position of depth for the Cardinals with three legitimate prospects at AAA (caliber if not geography) in Craig, Freese and Wallace.  Glaus is a free agent at the end of 2009 but he’s not exactly going to be ancient at age 33.  Projecting him as a 3.5 WAR player in 2009, his 2010-2012 WAR total would be something like 9 WAR worth about 35M over 3 years.  Is it possible that the Cardinals go with the reliable veteran and move one or both of Craig and Freese?  Glaus had a tremendous season last year (5 WAR) and stayed on the field the whole year.  How do the Cardinals work in Freese/Craig/Wallace at the big league level to find out if they can really afford to let Glaus go?

erik: That’s a darn good question, and one I’m not sure I know how to answer. Maybe the better question is- Will Glaus price himself beyond what the Cardinals would be willing to spend? There’s a good chance that could happen. Getting back to your question, I’m sure it wouldn’t hurt Freese’s development to be up with the big club, perhaps in a John Mabry/Scott Spiezio sort of role as backup 3B/1B/LF/RF/inter-league DH. It’s not like he has that much development left given that he is 25. That frees up Craig to play 3B in Memphis and Wallace to at least start there at 3B. Both players get looks at the position.

azruavatar: With the release of Rico Washington and no Josh Phelps-esque signing, the Cardinals seem to have made space at AAA for at least two of Freese, Wallace and Craig.  It would seem a real disservice to Craig to try and fit him into the Memphis outfield given how crowded it is.  Craig has hit and hit well each year in the Cardinals system.  While you want to get your best prospects adequate playing time, trying to keep he and Freese in the minors would seem to be a real disservice to one or both of them.  Craig’s defense at third isn’t outstanding but I’ve yet to see/read anything that makes me think he isn’t average at the position.  At the same time, given the obvious depth at 3B, it’s surprising that the Cardinals haven’t moved one of these two players to a team like the Twins.  Is the rest of the industry just not that convinced that these two are major league hitters?

roarke: The market has been very slow in developing this offseason, so I wouldn’t necessarily count out a move of one of these guys yet.  That being said, if Freese and Craig are still with the organization on Opening Day, I would like to see Freese at the major league level, as Erik suggested.  I would also like to see Craig start the season as the starting 3B at Memphis and Wallace start the season in Springfield.  I would guess that Wallace would be ready to move up quickly, but oftentimes these kind of logjams sort themselves out through injuries and needs in other places.  As for the future, I’d like to see Glaus allowed to leave, the Cardinals pick up a draft pick for him, and let the best of Freese/Craig/Wallace get a shot at 3B and bank the excess payroll for Pujols’ next contract.

erik: You would have to think the Giants would be interested in either Craig/Freese. Given the fact they are kicking the tires on the an good glove/ mediocre hitting Joe Crede, I don’t see why Freese wouldn’t be an interest to them. I don’t know what the Giants would realistically offer in return, but you would think that a Freese acquisition would be another win on Sabean’s offseason scorecard. The market has been glacial, to say the least. I’m also surprised we haven’t heard Bryan Anderson in more trade rumors this winter.

azruavatar: We’ll have to wait with bated breath to see how this plays out in 2009.  While neither seem to be future superstars, I think we all agree that both Craig and Freese seem like legitimate B-type prospects at the corner sack.  What level they’ll play at remains largely undetermined for 2009 but it’s a rather congested path to the majors in the short term.

At a high level, comparisons to Brett Wallace do make a lot of sense. Both played in the Pac-10 (although Craig played all over the field during his college career, including LF, 1B, SS and 3B) and both are much more highly regarded for their bat than their glove. The superficial differences between the two are that Wallace bats lefthanded while Craig bats righthanded, Wallace weighs about 45 pounds more than Craig and Wallace is two years younger than Craig.

The consensus is that Brett Wallace is a future major leaguer and probably a well-above average offensive major leaguer. If Allen Craig is Wallace-lite (both literally and figuratively), what kind of value does Craig bring to the Cardinals organization?

Craig played High School ball in California (also like Brett Wallace) and then went to Cal, where he played for four years. In his four years at Cal he improved every season, capping off his college career with a .344/.403/.561 line his senior season which also included eleven home runs in 221 at bats. If you want to be picky, the only negative that you could point out is that he only walked in about 6% of his plate appearances, but it’s tough to quibble with a lack of walks when he was mashing everything thrown to him. Meanwhile he was striking out in about 10% of his plate appearances, which is an acceptable amount for a guy with his power profile.

Still, when it came time for the 2006 draft, Craig was not taken until the eighth round. He was listed as a shortstop when taken and Baseball America said at the time that he had “an injury-riddled career at California” and that he was “an offensive player without a defined position.” According to the Cal baseball website, he was injured in a collision at first base during his Freshman year of college and missed 17 games with an injury to his hand and wrist, but I couldn’t find any other mention of injuries and he seemed to play in almost all of Cal’s games during the rest of his career. Whatever the reason, whether injury concerns or positional concerns, the Cardinals appear to have gotten a steal in the eighth round.

In his professional debut, Craig’s numbers were down from the levels he set in college, but they were respectable nonetheless. In 48 games in the New York-Penn League he put up a line of .257/.325/.400 with four homeruns. The next season, however, he was back to his old self, tearing up pitching while playing for Palm Springs and putting up a line of .312/.370/.530 with 21 homeruns. Craig’s walk rate had improved since college, as well, taking the base on balls in 7.5% of his plate appearances (although he was striking out at a higher clip as well: 16.9% of the time). His performance earned him a seven game call up to Springfield at the end of the season and he made the most of it by hitting three homeruns.

Despite his offensive success in 2007, the Cardinals were unsure about Craig’s future. He had committed 18 errors at third base, which was cause for concern. That offseason, the Cardinals further complicated Craig’s future by trading Jim Edmonds to the Padres for prospect David Freese. Freese promptly jumped over Craig on the depth chart, skipping Springfield and starting 2008 in Memphis while Craig spent the year in Springfield.

Another complication that added to the backlog at the hot corner was that the Cardinals then went and drafted Wallace with their first round pick in June. Wallace was fast-tracked and was playing alongside Craig at Springfield by the end of the season.

But, in the face of seeming lack of faith in him, Craig continued to hit throughout 2008. He put up a .304/.374/.494 line with 22 homeruns in Springfield and increased his walk rate to 8.5%. According to the Baseball Prospectus, Craig’s peak translations (what he is likely to do in his peak years based on statistical extrapolation) is this: .284/.348/.472. The OPS of 820 that would represent would be 10th among third basemen at the major league level last season.

The question, of couse, has never really been about Craig’s bat, though. He followed up his 18 error performance in 2007 with 17 more in 2008. The Cardinals periodically played Craig in leftfield throughout the year and he did not make an error (or record an assist) in his 17 games patrolling the outfield. As an outfielder his OPS isn’t quite as impressive, as he would have been 40th in the league last season (although that still puts him in the top half of starting outfielders).

So, to answer the question posed above, the value Craig adds to the organization is a guy that projects to be a very solid major league bat – I’m thinking that Josh Willingham might be a good comp. Whether Craig becomes trade bait because of the backlog at third base or the Cardinals hold onto him and use him at third or left field, the Cardinals should receive a good return on their eighth round pick.

[Note: for more on Craig in his own words, check out Erik's great interview with him from earlier this year]

(Photo credit: Mark Schiefelbein, Springfield News-leader)

I was able to catch up with Springfield 3B and Baseball America’s 15th ranked Cardinal prospect Allen Craig and ask him about hitting, defense, and the importance of winning at the minor league level.

Interview after the jump.

How would you describe Allen Craig, the person and the ballplayer?

I would say that I’m a fairly laid back person that goes with the flow of things most of the time. My family is really important to me so I enjoy spending time with them and my girlfriend as much as possible. I like listening to music, hanging out with the guys on the team, playing video games and shooting some hoops at various gyms when we are on the road lifting (just shooting no actual playing basketball ha ha)….it is relaxing. As a ballplayer I just try to play my game and get better everyday. I work as hard as I possibly can in the off season to get in shape for the season, and I’m constantly working on my hitting and defense. I really want to be the guy that everyone can count on to get the job done. Other than that…I just play.

You’ve hit over 20 homers in the past two seasons, in A ball and now AA. Would you describe yourself as a power hitter?

I wouldn’t necessarily describe myself as being only a power hitter. I really strive to become a well rounded hitter that can hit for average, drive the ball to all fields, and hit some homeruns in the process. Hitting homeruns is great, but its something that I definitely don’t try to do every time I come up to the plate.

How would you describe your hitting mechanics?

Mechanics are a little difficult to describe via email but I would say that I have a slightly open stance and try to stand as balanced as I possible in the box. I also have a mini “Sheffield” waggle with my bat before the pitcher delivers the ball. My bat waggle isn’t nearly as violent as his, and I do it just to get my hands ready to hit. As for my swing, I would say that I have a little bit of loft in it and I do a good job of keeping my hands back. Keeping my hands back helps me stay back on off-speed pitches.

When you find yourself not swinging well, is it because you get out of whack mechanically or is it more of a mental thing?

When I’m not swinging the bat very well it could be because of a number of reasons. The challenge is finding out why I’m struggling and what adjustments need to be made. I could be struggling because the pitchers are just making great pitches…It could be because my mechanics are out of whack….or it could be because I wasn’t thinking right while I was at the plate. I have pretty much gone through all of these three reasons this season and have done a pretty decent job turning things around. Having Derrick May and Dan Radisson for hitting coaches definitely helps a lot when it comes to making adjustments mechanically and mentally.

What’s the biggest difference between A ball pitchers and AA pitchers?

The biggest difference between the pitchers in A ball and AA is command of their pitches. Last year in Palm Beach I definitely saw more fastballs because the pitchers didn’t have as good of command of their off-speed pitches so they had to come back at me with their fastball. I’m almost certain that every AA hitter would give you that answer to this question. Being able to throw all of your pitches for strikes in any count is huge and makes it difficult for the hitters. Part of the adjustment that I’ve made this season is being able to think the game a little better which as helped give me a better idea of what the pitchers might be throwing.

Who has been the toughest pitcher you’ve faced so far this season?

I would say Vin Mazzaro from the A’s has been the best pitcher I’ve faced this season. He has great stuff and had command of all his pitches.

You have played shortstop, left field, third base and first base at Cal. You’ve also played a little left field in Springfield. Do you feel like third base is your “true position”?

Yeah, I do feel as though third base is my true position. I work on my defense at third base everyday and have played almost every game this season and last season there. I see myself as a third baseman, but I also take pride in the fact that I can play other positions well. Versatility is always a good thing to have. I would hope that If the Cardinals wanted my bat in the lineup that they wouldn’t be afraid to put me in another position.

Suddenly you are finding your team just a game back of NW Arkansas. In the minors it’s usually about getting to the next rung in the system, but how important is winning at the level you are at to you?

As I write this we are currently tied for first with NW Arkansas. Winning is always important because that is how you are ultimately judged. It’s important to put up good numbers in the minor leagues, but it is just as important to be on a winning team and to know that what you did help the team win games.

My thanks go out to Allen for taking the time and thought in answering my questions.

This is a few days old, so I might have missed mention of it elsewhere, but here is a nice story/interview with the Cardinals minor league pitcher of the month for April, Jess Todd.

The system played four games tonight and all the details are after the jump.

Memphis 4,  Las Vegas 3 – 12 innings

• Jaime Garcia pitched very well in his first outing at AAA.  He went 6 innings, giving up two runs (one earned) on six hits and no walks.  He struck out six and nine of the other twelve outs he recorded came via the groundball. 
• Colby continues to struggle, going 1-6 last night with three strikeouts.  He stole a base but was also picked off once.
• Joe Mather went 2-5 with a double and had an outfield assist.
• Bryan Anderson continues his smooth adjustment to AAA, going 2-5 with two doubles and an rbi.  Jason Repko did manage to steal second against him.
• Ron Flores, Hugo Castellanos and John Wasdin each pitched a scoreless inning.
• Jason Motte threw two scoreless innings, giving up two hits and an intentional walk while striking out two.
• Chris Perez gave up a run in his inning of work, getting the blown save in the 11th, which also gave him the win when Memphis scored in the top of the 12th.  He gave up two hits and struck out one.
• Garcia, Jarrett Hoffpauir and David Freese all had errors in the game.

Springfield 2, NW Arkansas 6

• Well, let’s get the bad news out of the way first: Clayton Mortensen got smacked around again. He only lasted 3.2 innings and gave up five runs (four earned) on six hits and two walks. He did strike out six and he had three groundouts to only one flyout, so his peripherals aren’t terrible. He gave up a walk and a homerun in the first inning and then cruised through the next two innings before the wheels came off in the fourth. An error by Allen Craig and a wild pitch compounded Mortensen’s problems in the inning.
• On the good side of the ledger, Shane Robinson continued to impress, going 2-3 with a walk.
• The relief corps pitched relatively well, aside from a run given up by Zach Zuercher in his 0.2 innings. Josh Dew pitched 1.1 scoreless with a strikeout, Bob Zimmerman struck out a pair in 1.1 scoreless innings, and Fernando Salas struck out two in his scoreless inning.

Dunedin 1, Palm Beach 5

• Arnoldi Cruz was behind the plate this afternoon and he went 2-4 with a homerun, a double and two rbi.
• Isaias Garcia, Nathan Southard and Antonio DeJesus each went 2-4. Southard and Garcia doubled and Garcia also had a stolen base.
• Oliver Marmol went 1-3 with a double and an rbi, but also committed an error in the field.
• Shaun Garceau pitched five scoreless innings, giving up three hits and three walks while striking out three.
• Brandon Dickson pitched the final four innings, giving up two hits – one a solo homerun – and no walks and striking out one.

Kane County 11, Quad Cities 1

• Not much went right for the River Bandits as they were held to two hits, singles by Mike Folli and Paul Vasquez. The best offensive highlight I can come up with is that Pete Kozma went 0-2 with a walk, a HBP and a stolen base. The team struck out fourteen times (including the golden sombrero for Matthew Aburr).
• Eduardo Sanchez took the loss in going 2.2 innings and giving up three runs (one earned) on three hits, a hit batter and three walks while striking out three, but the ugliest line of the night goes to Thomas Eager. Eager lasted three innings and gave up eight runs, only six were earned though. He allowed four hits, gave up four walks and two homeruns while striking out one.
• Matt Spade struck out three in his 1.1 scoreless innings of work.
• Wayne Daman and Cardoza Tucker each pitched a scoreless inning, with Daman striking out one and giving up a hit and Tucker striking out two and walking one.