Archive for the “analysis” Category

It’s not a secret that the Cardinals major league middle infield has been a struggle for them. Last season, they eyed a trade deadline upgrade at shortstop to replace Ryan Therior with Rafael Furcal. This season has seen a revolving door of players at second base including Daniel Descalso, Tyler Greene, Matt Carpenter and Skip Schumaker. All of those players have their own warts at the position and the Cardinals are most likely still on the lookout for a long term answer at second.

The two most touted prospects for the Cardinals middle infield are Kolten Wong in AA and Ryan Jackson in AAA. How are they doing?

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Finishing off the top 10. . .

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Jeff and I rolled out our list prior to the season. After a month of play, how are the top 20 prospects doing?

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One of the surprise stalwarts for the 2011 Johnson City Cardinals was Kyle Hald. I’ve mentioned his impressive command during his time there last year when he walked just 12 batter sin 53.2 innings. That’s a walk rate around 2 per 9 IP. Hald was old for his level but the command was still noteworthy.

What may have been overlooked was the 2011 work of Seth Maness, which was split between Batavia, Quad Cities and Palm beach. Maness clearly out-controlled Hald during his 53 innings of work walking just 5 batters. Now, Maness finds himself in the midst of a 34 inning walkless streak. (He ended 2011 with 5.2 walkless innings so you can mentally tack those onto the streak if you’d like.)

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One of the things that those who follow the Cardinals’ farm system right now have to struggle with is that the two top hitting prospects, Matt Adams and Oscar Taveras, have a very similar hitting profile but one that isn’t found among many elite players. This concern, the dearth of walks, has been a common refrain here and it’s a legitimate concern but it’s also one that we’ll simply have to adapt to.

I’ve made comparisons for Matt Adams before based on his statistical profile and while Taveras differs in his defensive capabilities, offensively, he’s not that far off from Adams.  Both players hit for elite levels of power, make consistent contact with moderate strikeout rates and don’t walk much. But what exactly does that last piece look like in the majors?

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In reply to a question about which starting pitching prospect would be called upon to replace Carpenter should his injury prove insurmountable, Joe Strauss provided a curious response and he apparently reiterated a similar sentiment on the radio days later:

First of all, assuming Carp’ is ‘shelved for the year’ has no basis at this time. Neither is assuming that Shelby Miller is close to ready for this level. There are many within the organization who see Joe Kelly as a rising option should further need arise within the rotation. Based on his velocity, his maturity and his makeup, Trevor Rosenthal has won many admirers within the organization, including the major-league clubhouse. Folks need to re-think some of their assumptions.

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Stryker Trahan is a name I’ve heard tossed around by some in connection to the Cardinals this coming draft. At the moment, he’s generally regarded as the best backstop available in the 2012 draft. He’s currently in high school with a commitment to Ole Miss but should someone wave first round money at him, there’s a sense that he’d take it.

He’s a good catcher with better athleticism than your typical plodding catcher. A solid line drive swing helps to augment his power projection and overall hitting ability. He’s as near to a complete package as a high school backstop can be.

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The Cardinals placed 11 pitchers in our top 20 prospect list this year. One item that sticks out is that while the Cardinals have had the occasional late round break through (Trevor Rosenthal was drafted in the 21st round), the Cardinals have drafted well with their early round picks.

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The Cardinals are approaching the end of what will be a nine-year relationship with catcher Yadier Molina barring an extension beyond 2012.  Over that 9 year period, Molina will have earned something in the neighborhood of $25M according to Cot’s Contracts.  It’s almost certain that Molina would have been a starting catcher on the merits of his defense alone but he has also proven a capable hitter at the plate.

From 2004-2011, Yadier Molina ranks 8th in Fangraphs’ WAR among catchers.  This understates his talent though as defensive rankings for  catchers are rudimentary. While other catchers are getting nearly full credit for their talent since they are offense first players (e.g. Jorge Posada), Yadier Molina doesn’t even crack the top 30 in wOBA over that time period. There’s a compelling rationale that Molina is a top 5 catcher during his MLB tenure.

The Cardinals have become accustomed in recent years to consistency in their backstop. Prior to Molina, now manager Mike Matheny was the primary catcher from 2000-2004. Matheny personified the Cardinals desire for a defensive catcher in spite of offensive shortcomings.  Loved by his pitchers, Matheny was nothing short of anemic at the plate.  Posting a .277 wOBA, about .055 points worse than league average or 3 wins below league average on offense, Matheny was still behind the plate for no less than 110 games each year.

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Quad Cities has seen several very interesting pitchers pass through it’s starting rotation this season. From Carlos Martinez to Jordan Swagerty to current starter Trevor Rosenthal, they’ve had a plethora of high octane arms throwing gas and striking out batters.  One of the undersung additions to that rotation has been Boone Whiting.

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