Archive for the “Brett Wallace” Category

We often forget the prospect that fails for the next tantalizing kid to come along. This is even more true when the prospect gets traded. John Mozeliak and company deserve huge kudos for selling high on Brett Wallace and this interesting tidbit from Keith Law helps explain way.

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Zach Cox is currently sporting a .533 OPS through 31 ABs in the Arizona Fall League. It’s nothing to get worked up about but the Cardinals certainly have eyes on him during his time in Arizona. There’s been speculation about the level that Cox will start at next year; I’ve done my own wishcasting in that regard.  His performance in Arizona will probably play a role but this isn’t the first time the Cardinals have drafted an advanced college bat in recent years.

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Around this time last year some of us were bemoaning the departure of some of our favorite Fabergé eggs. Chris Perez and then later Jess Todd went to Cleveland for Mark DeRosa. Matt Holliday was acquired for the man we affectionately dubbed the Walrus, as well as Clayton Mortensen and Shane Peterson. That was four of our top ten prospects going into the 2009 season, and Peterson was in most publications’ top 15-20.

I wasn’t a big fan of either trade at the moment they happened, but I gradually sobered up from my prospect fanboyism and realized that the deals, in themselves, were perfectly justifiable even if it meant putting a pretty big dent in the farm system. So far, Luhnow has done a pretty good job re-stocking the system with some potential, assuming the tops picks of the draft sign and the Carlos Matias signing is OK’d.

I thought it would be fun just to check in with some of the players and see how they’re doing for their new clubs. This isn’t to pronounce a winner or a loser in the trade, just a status update.

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Link

… as does everyone else.  The Cardinals never fully believed he could stick at third.  Don’t let people purport that revisionist (or simply inaccurate) history that he was going to be an average defender at third.

HPGF fanboy characterized above.

{Azruavatar update:

What a topic. We’ll make sure and have a new thread on this again tomorrow. There’s a lot of secondary information that can be derived from this trade . . . and I mean a lot.

FWIW, I’m not nearly as negative about this trade as most.}

Quick hits, sorry for being redundant, I just don’t want anyone to think I totally am vehemently saying this is the worst trade ever:

• Brett Wallace is not a sure thing. But he is at least a top 50 prospect and that has a lot of value. My feeling is, defensive limitations at 3B aside, he would have been at least an average player for the Cardinals, which means he would have been worth 2 WAR a year, worth around 8-9 million bucks on the free agent market. For a cost-controlled player, that is valuable. Maybe he doesn’t meet that reasonable expectation, stranger things have happened.
• With that in mind, Wallace’s value may never have been higher than it was before the trade was made. But to give up Wallace and Mortensen and Peterson for 2-months of Matt Holliday is a very steep price to pay.
• Holliday had better mean playoffs. But that is no slam dunk. If all goes to plan, Holliday means an extra couple of wins. That might mean the difference between staving off the Cubs and Brewers, it may not. Even if STL makes the playoffs, Philly and LA will be tough to beat.
• IF this means they resign Holliday, groovy, as long as it’s not too cost-prohibitive. There again is that word if.
• IF Holliday is simply offered arbitration and declines, the Cardinals get two high draft picks, including a first rounder. That’s good, but for every Colby or Wallace, there has been Ottavinos and Kozmas. Nothing against those two, but they are C prospects and not really valuable commodities.  That actually is par for the course, which is why a top 100 prospect is worth more than draft pick compensation. It’s the whole proverbial bird in the hand…
• If they don’t bring back Holliday/biff the draft next year, then this will hurt, flag or no flag.  I’m sorry, but I remember fans on ledges in 2007 when they missed the playoffs, a year after they own the World Series. You can build to win now and in the future, you don’t have to choose.
• While I don’t think Mortensen or Peterson will be anything really super special, I’m bummed about Morty leaving. He had that sinker and some upside. Cost-controlled back-end starters have their value, even if that’s all you felt his upside was. Peterson never really did much for me, even though he was hitting pretty well this season. I do have this odd sensation he’ll surprise us all.
• The farm system will probably be in the bottom 20′s after enjoying being a top ten system for a while. If they don’t sign Shelby Miller, the farm system will look really bad. Which, sort of selfishly thinking, makes this site less fun for all of us until draft day. They had better sign Shelby Miller, but even if they do, he’s still a big risk.  I’ve heard 4th OF too often thrown around when discussing DJ Tools. I’ve heard some good comparisons too. (Desmond Jennings) Descalso is nice. Todd is nice. Lynn is OK. Getting Garcia healthy again is good.  But no “impact” player in the system right now, really, other than Wagner Mateo, who is like a decade away and a huge risk as it is.
• Not a real fan of Mo right now at all, but I admire his guts. I just hope this wasn’t some sort of peace offering for trading the pitching coaches’ son. Not sayin’, just sayin’.  Eh, probably not. Just musing.

For more of my take, see this post at BtB and FanGraphs.

Speaking of which, I thought now would be a good time for addressing some questions that you may have thought and didn’t want to ask After pulling a Brett Favre on blogging, I’ve joined FanGraphs because it’s paid gig. Nothing huge, but for blogging, it’s nice.  I’m a self-employed contractor and have been looking for a job with a company for a while, about since my wife found out she was pregnant. I would like to write for a living (who wouldn’t?) but few people get that privilege. So when I’m asked to do get paid for something I like doing, and for a blog with good exposure and that pays, well, why not?

The Faberge Eggs are busted. And I am so disgusted. Koo-coo-ca-choo is flying the coop, along with my favorite pitching prospect.

FR is not going to be the same without the Walrus. Or Morty for that matter.

Link.

Wallace for Holliday was bad enough as it was. Then they gave away Mortensen too. And Peterson (meh). Still nothing official, but this is a sad day for the HPGF.

edit: Don’t misunderstand me, if Holliday means playoffs, then I can understand it. I don’t think there is a guarantee he does, or that he even vastly improves the odds that happens. I also just think they gave up a lot, and writing for FR becomes quite a bit less interesting.

Billy Beane may have the last laugh yet. Word is Mo may be willing to part with our Beloved Walrus to get Matt Holliday. This is simple math, people.

Brett Wallace is one of the most valuable commodities in all of baseball. Baseball America recently ranked him the 24th best prospect in baseball. According to Victor Wang’s studies, that means his surplus value is about $25 million bucks. Matt Holliday is probably worth a win or two (closer to two) to the Cardinals, or about $7-9 million. He stands to get paid $6 million more for the rest of the season. He’s going to be a Type A free agent, and the general accepted value is a 1st round pick is worth about $5 mil. So Holliday’s total value is something around $8 million.

$25 million > $8 million.

You don’t trade a top 25 prospect for a rental. Period.

(Thanks to Sky for the inspiration).

Update: According to playoff odds, Holliday increases the Cardinals odds of reaching the playoffs by 15%, and up to 45%. So he’s no guarantee to vault the Cards into October. Sure helps, but no guarantee. According to Jonah Keri, a playoff appearance is worth $25 million. So $25*.15 and figuring inflation and you got another $4M. $25M is still greater than $12M. Hat tip, vivaelpujols.

Tony LaRussa seems to have taken some heat for not wanting Brett Wallace in the big leagues.  Wailing and gnashing of teeth seems to be the vogue response from fans as TLR “stonewalls” another prospect.  I’ve alluded in the past why I agree with TLR in this area but let’s lay it out point by point.

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Brett Wallace fell to the Cardinals at the 13th overall pick in the 2008 draft. Regarded by some as the best pure college bat in the draft, the Cardinals couldn’t pass up the opportunity to draft an impact player of that caliber despite having the games best player at Wallace’s likely position.

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Matt Bakers covers the S-Cards for the Springfield News-Leader, and has stepped right in where Kary Booher has left off in putting together some great coverage for the team. You just don’t get the sort of coverage he brings from most AA teams, and he was kind enough to take some time out of his schedule and answer some of my questions about the team and his impressions of the players.

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