Ryan Ludwick was signed to a 1-year contract in January and will be in his last season of club control in 2011. At 5.45M in 2010, he’s likely to be worth his salary. Assuming $4M/WAR, Ludwick would need to produce around 2.2 WAR on the season.* CHONE projected him for a 2.0 WAR season in 2010. He’s now a year removed from the monstrous 5 WAR season he had in 2008.

So what would a 2 WAR season look like for Ludwick? Well, a lot like 2009. He hit for a .336 wOBA (.269/.329/.467) against a league average of .329. Ludwick has continued to be an average fielder in RF and projected that way again in 2010 by CHONE. So Ludwick amassing a .340 wOBA over about 600PAs would get him into the 2 WAR level. That’s not a tall order for him and he certainly has the capacity to produce well beyond that.

But 2011 is a trickier topic. He’ll make more money, likely approaching 9M**, meaning he’ll need to be producing at a higher rate something closer to 3 WAR. If he plays well in 2010 that arbitration salary could be eve higher. Regardless of the specifics of his 2011 contract, the Cardinals are going to be hard pressed to keep Ludwick around because of the financial constraints imposed by 3 big pitching contracts and a pair of mega position player contracts.

So, who in the system has a chance of being that replacement in 2011? Well, the first and possibly best bet are a pair of recent grads residing on the major league roster already. Joe Mather is currently relegated to a backup CF role and it might be to the detriment of the team overall as he represents a nice combination of defense and potential offense. With the need to hold him in reserve for emergency CF duties, the likelihood is that he won’t see consistent or even significant playing time. Mather’s window for creating a Jayson Werth (or even a Ryan Ludwick!) type career for himself has been hampered by recent wrist injuries and, like everyone not named Benjamin Button, he isn’t getting any younger.

Allen Craig, having already seen time in RF in 2010, is the second candidate to consider. I’ve written about him extensively and, perceived organizational indifference towards his defense aside, I like his bat to be the most prolific of the right field candidates for the future.

On the minor’s side, the Cardinals will look for a pair of players to put together strong seasons at Memphis and create viable alternatives to Mather/Craig. Jon Jay, repeating his time in Memphis is the most serious contender. 2008 represented an offensive zenith for Jay as he posted very good numbers in Springfield (.306/.379/.407) over 400+ PAs. Jay’s 2009 tour at Memphis was underwhelming with a .338 OBP but his major calling card would be the completeness of his game in RF. A plus defender in the outfield, his minor league numbers have been nothing short of fantastic. He looks to be worth upwards of a full win in the field so the offensive threshold for being a productive player is much lower for Jay. Simply being league average offensively makes him a better than average player.

More of a long shot but one of my favorite players in the system right now is Tyler Henley. More along the lines of Jay than Craig, Henley is an above average fielder (only slightly by the metrics but I like him as +5 in a corner) and an good hitter who has yet to misstep in the minors. Henley’s options and limited time in the minors make his ascension somewhat less likely as he’s not even on the 40-man roster yet. It’s hard to completely discount Henley but he faces the largest obstacles on the list.

There’s a handful of players that aren’t real options in Memphis. Amaury Cazana Marti (age), Shane Robinson (lack of offense) and Mark Shorey (defense) are not real options in RF. In Springfield, Adron Chambers and Daryl Jones are too far removed from the majors to be considered real candidates. It’s not impossible that the Cardinals will retain Ryan Ludwick in 2011. The possibility of saving $8M while only taking a minor downgrade on paper is hard to ignore though. With the amount of committed dollars the Cardinals have in the next few years and the impending re-signing of one Albert Pujols, Ryan Ludwick represents the easiest expensive player for the team to replace.

*This includes the typical 60% discount that player contracts in Arb year 2 represent. Thus, Ludwick needs to produce at a level consumate with a $9M free agent.

** Arb year 3 represents a 80% discount from free agent prices.

First, let’s look at each player’s MLE’s from last season:

Freese - .264/.304/.446

Mather – .258/.339/.498

The advantage decidedly goes Mr. Bombs.

Now, let’s look at how each player is predicted to contribute offensively:

Freese -
CHONE: .335 wOBA
Oliver: .346
PECOTA, fudged wOBA: (OBP*1.75+SLG/3): .302

Mather -
CHONE: .343 wOBA
Oliver: .343
Marcel: .334
Fudged PECOTA: .333

Oliver is a real believer in Freese, while PECOTA hates him. I prefer CHONE above the others, but basically the difference between each hitter isn’t huge.

How about defense? We know Mather played 3B before moving to the OF. The fact that he had to be moved to a corner outfield spot early in his career obviously is telling. At the most (hopefully), we’re talking about him starting 25% of the games. The worst regular 3B defensively was Edwin Encarnacion, who was -12.6 per 150 games. If Mather is as big of a butcher as Edwin at the hot corner, that would make Mather worth a -3.4 runs.

What does a 3B need to do? He needs to have good hands, instincts and a good, accurate arm. According to the fans, Mather doesn’t. This isn’t a perfect way to go about doing this, but Mather’s comps from the Tango’s scouting report by the fans includes one guy who played regularly at 3B, Carlos Guillen, but he’s no more a 3B than he was a SS and is now being moved to the outfield. Guillen was a -5.3 per 150 games, not great, but no Edwin Encarnacion.

We’ve already talked about the merits of Freese at 3B. The past two seasons, Freese has been +13 and +12 runs per 150 games according to Sean Smith’s Total Zone. So while Mather would at worst cough up 3 or 4 runs, Freese would save 3 or 4…well, if his Achilles heal doesn’t hinder him, which you’d think it would.

Figuring Mather or Freese would get around 160 plate appearances, I have Freese at .6 WAR and Mather at .5 WAR, no big diff. That is also assuming Mather is awful with the leather. So I’d say Mather is all but certain now to get the nod. He’s already on the 40 man roster and plays LF/RF/1B. Oh, and he’s healthy and has been all but named to the team with that bright red 7 on his jersey. I think Freese is sporting 62.

In the long run, I think I may like Freese a little more as a prospect because of where he plays on the diamond, and how well he plays there. He’s not a future all star, but neither is Mather. Freese could be something like a 2-2.5 WAR player whereas Mather is more of a 1.5-1.8 win corner outfielder should he someday get a shot at starting. Right now he looks like quite a nifty bench player.

As everyone now knows, the Cardinals top prospect, Colby Rasmus, is ready for prime time. He impressed everyone that saw him in Jupiter and I feel pretty confident in saying that his (temporary) demotion is due to the financial realities of baseball in 2008 rather than any testiment to his readiness to play against major league caliber opponents. Here is a nice two picture sequence of Colby batting – a good job of taking the pitch right back where it came from against the Mets.

The other prospect that impressed everyone was Joe Mather. I boldly declared that Joe would make the big league club after my first two days in Jupiter. I was wrong, but I don’t think I’m the only one that was disappointed. It was interesting to me how Colby and Joe hung out together the whole time that they were up with the big club. Here they are before a game discussing a different kind of swing (is it possible that Joe bats righthanded and plays golf lefthanded?):

They are gone for now, but they’ll be back soon.

My favorite pitcher to watch was Chris Perez. He was dominant almost every time he went out there (his second inning against Baltimore on Wednesday was the exception). I think it might be best for Chris to start the year as the closer in Memphis because I think I’d rather he got regular innings instead of irregular usage at the big league level. There is no doubt, however, that he can get big league hitters out. He might be the most impressive player I saw (non-Pujols division), Colby included. Here is a picture of Chris just prior to release and another of him (not really) auditioning for another job.

Finally, these last two pictures are more for Erik’s benefit than anything else. So, with no further ado, here are Carlos Pupo and Amaury Marti:

1.  Jason Motte needs another pitch.  His velocity is impressive, but he was hit pretty hard once hitters were able to time him.  Also, his mechanics look painful to me – look at the torque on this picture.

2.  Chris Perez is going to be a dominant reliever in the big leagues.  His numbers point to this conclusion, but seeing him in person drives the point home.  His fastball is special and his slider makes people look foolish.  His mechanics, in contrast to Motte’s look pretty clean.

3.  Colby Rasmus… what more is there to be said?  He stroked a beautiful line drive on a 3-2 pitch when the game was on the line and he threw a runner out at the plate that was trying to score the game winning run in the tenth inning (it wasn’t a flawless play – he bobbled the catch a bit and the throw was up the line, but it got the job done). 

4.  Joe Mather is going to make the team.  It seems to me from the playing time given out recently that Mather is going to play the “Scott Spezio” role for the Cardinals this season.  He looks like he is comfortable on the team and he has been producing lately.  Here’s a decent picture of the follow through on his swing.

5.  Non-Cardinals impression: Fernando Martinez is the real deal.  He looked great in his two at bats, turning around a Jason Motte fastball for a double down the right field line his second time up.

I am not travelling to Vero Beach tomorrow to see the Cardinals and Dodgers, but I will be in Port St. Lucie on Saturday.

 On the pitching side of the prospect ledger, Mark Worrell went one inning and gave up two hits, one a homerun, and walked a man.  His spring ERA is now at 6.00, which puts a damper on my hopes that he would make the club out of Spring Training.  Blake Hawksworth gave up three runs in two innings of work, but struck out five Dodgers. 

 Today, Clayton Mortenson started because Anthony Reyes has flu-like symptoms.  I will be in Florida starting on Wednesday, so I will be reporting back on what I see with pictures and words.