First the prospect: Nick Greenwood is 22 years old, left-handed and has a 6 K/9 in the Midwest League. He was a 14th round pick in last year’s draft. He did not make Baseball America’s Top 30 Padres list last season, for what it’s worth, and it’s unlikely he rates very highly in our system either by seasons end. He has fringe stuff, save for a decent change-up, but he has good command. He’s a C grade pitcher, arms of his ilk are a dime a dozen.

So forget the player coming over providing much of anything. What this really signals is a huge vote of confidence for a couple of former Future Redbirds:  Jon Jay, and I’d throw Allen Craig in there as well. Mozeliak has to feel that Jay and Craig can match Ryan Ludwick’s production for the rest of the season. Jay has been a man on fire so far and LaRussa no longer has to take away at-bats from Colby Rasmus (good news!) or Ludwick.

Now obviously, the Cardinals know Jay cannot sustain hitting like a mad man for the rest of the season. He has a crazy .446 BABIP this season, so he’s due for some regression. What does it take to replace Ludwick? ZiPS projects Luddy to post a .363 wOBA the rest of the season. Assuming a couple runs of defense and 250 plate appearances, that’s about a win of production (1.3 WAR, to be exact) of production to fill. Can a Jon Jay/Allen Craig platoon match that? I don’t have the projections in front of me, but I doubt it. Considering Craig hits lefties, and Jay continues some semblance of good-hitting, a .340-.345 wOBA seems completely reasonable. That’s about a 5 run gap left to fill.

Well, Westbrook fills that gap. Westbrook projects around a 4.45 FIP for the rest of the season. Over 50 innings that equals 6 runs.  Suppan is a replacement level pitcher, so Westbrook is 6 runs better than Suppan. The Cardinals barely improved, if at all, but here’s where salary comes to play.

Westbrook’s salary will be covered by Cleveland. Ludwick is due around $2 mil the rest of the season, if not a little more, and he’s going into his last year of arbitration next year. He would probably make $8 or so mil in arbitration. If the team deemed that pricetag too high, he’d be non-tendered (I think, correct me if I’m wrong) and  the Cardinals get no compensation. So this is some sort of compensation now.

The Cardinals, at least on paper, didn’t get a lot worse I guess…and they get some salary relief next year from Ludwick to help try and re-up the Mang.  I think they’re maybe better in the long run, and about the same in the short run, just so long as Westbrook doesn’t crap the bed and Jay/Craig play as about expected.  Is that hoping for too much?

I’m afraid this is some sort of misguided endorsement of Jon Jay (from the front office that brought you: Kyle Lohse was flukily good for one year, so let’s re-sign him!) and Dave Duncan (Westbrook + Duncan = teh awesome FTW!). To me it makes more sense to hold on to Ludwick, get San Diego out of this deal and work directly with the Indians, and then shop Ludwick in the winter time if you find his price-tag too constrictive.

Maybe there’s something that will still happen today with the middle infield before 3pm that helps me understand this more, because I get the deal…except I really don’t get it.

UDPATE 3:00 PM *crickets chirping* Looks like the farm system stays intact, but I’m sure it takes a little time to get the news out.

First of all, he is a slider pitcher. Or at least he is when he’s right. Secondly, I had no idea he was being told to throw the sinker but…um…why? I have no qualms about having him try to throw lower in the zone, but when you throw 95 you can get away with throwing a pitch up on occasion. I tried to find data on Perez’s splits in different parts of the zone and found no success, (not sure what it would’ve been worth, anyhow) but I do remember that at times his FB would get a little too true at times, so he can’t just fling the ball up in the zone all the time, but I don’t seem to recall him doing that.

I’m continually baffled that minor league pitching coordinator Brent Strom preaches that pitchers should “be themselves”, while Duncan has to fix everyone by making them a sinker-ball pitcher. The whole org doesn’t seem to be on the same page, to put it lightly. But I’m not here really to discuss that; I would like to just ask you all: Should the Cardinals trade Perez? Because if he’s not their cup of tea I’d hate to see him be monkeyed with and correspondingly lose his value as a ballplayer.

Even without being monkeyed with, I for one am not thoroughly sold he’s the closer of the team’s future; it seems we have seen a lot of these college closers with shaky control problems settle in as middle inning guys-David Aardsma, Joey Devine, Royce Ring, Ryan Wagner, Craig Hansen, heck, even Braden Looper to an extent. The jury is still out Devine and Hansen, but their outlook isn’t as bright as it was when they were drafted. Chad Cordero and Huston Street have proved to be the exception and not the rule, so I found this past draft to be pretty screwy with the landrush on relief pitchers.

I think Perez is a heck of a bullpen arm, don’t misunderstand me. He’s easily a top 3-5 prospect and has more upside than any pitcher in the system. I’d like to see the Cards exercise some patience and help him develop. But if Duncan is the one developing him and feels he just has to reinvent him, then I’d rather see him traded while his value is high. My heart can’t take another Anthony Reyes saga.

After a rough road trip, John Mozeliak dismissed the notion of being sellers at the deadline. Judging from the sound of things, the team will be moderate buyers but won’t do anything they feel would hurt the long-term health of the club. That’s good, but should the Cards be sellers?

In just seven days the Cardinals have seen their postseason odds drop dramatically, 26% to be exact. They now have just a 13% chance of making the playoffs. Their Pythagorean W-L record is 55-52 and their adjusted record (record adjusted by equivalent runs/equivalent runs allowed;strength of schedule also factored) is actually 52-54. PECOTA has the Cards pegged to finish the season 85-77, 7 games behind the Brewers and 9 games behind the Cubs.

Or, in less stat speak: The Cardinals are gonna have a heck of a time catching the Brewers and the Cubs. Both teams were quite talented to begin with, and they both greatly enhanced their chances with adding CC and Harden. Now both clubs are on pace to win 90+ games. While their scrappiness and fight has been a joy to watch, this team strikes me as an overachieving bunch that is likely to regress to the mean and showed signs of that this past week.

Obviously, the return of Carpenter and Wainwright could be meaningful, but it’s hard to bet your season on one player just coming back from Tommy John surgery. And given the team is also toying with the notion of putting Wainwright back into the bullpen, having him back won’t be as big. I realize things have gotten rotten out there, but putting AW in the ‘pen in hopes of stabilizing the situation would counterproductive, especially considering the man can give you innings.

I’m not trying to be a pessimist, but I just think now could be a good time to cash in some of the chips to bolster the farm system: Lohse’s value is at an all-time high.  Ryan Ludwick would fetch the team a pretty nice return, although Lud will only have three years of MLB service under his belt, so there’s an argument for keeping him if you believe his breakout is real. Looper will be a free agent this fall. Pineiro’s value isn’t going to get a lot higher. And Cesar Izturis probably wouldn’t fetch much, but if they can get anything in return for him, they should take it.