Lynn will start Thursday. #cardinals push other starters back a day. #stlcards

Holliday and McClellan will go on DL tomorrow, per Mozeliak. Lynn starts tomorrow. #stlcards

I’m not expecting a whole lot from Lynn, but he’s fortunate to be going up against a weakened Giants lineup which is 5th to last in MLB in wOBA for the year with .297.

Congrats to Lance and best of luck to the kid.

Quad Cities

4/8 – Trevor Rosenthal strikes out 11 batters over 4 innings meaning only one out was recorded on a ball in play — a groundout nonetheless.

4/9 – Jordan Swagerty tossed 6 innings of shutout ball striking out 5. He didn’t walk a batter and allowed just 4 hits.

Palm Beach

4/7 – Top propsect Shelby Miller begins his season with a 9 strikeout start over 5 innings.  He walked just 1 batter and recorded 4 of his 5 outs on balls in play via the ground.

4/9 – Maikel Cleto the prospect acquired in the Brendan Ryan trade struck out 7 in 6 innings of work. Cleto was touched up for a couple of walks and a trio of hits but again showed impressive groundball tendencies with 6-to-1 GO:AO ratio.

4/10 – Joe Kelly strikes out 5 in 5 scoreless innings of work. He allowed the most baserunners on this list (7 total) but continued his groundball ways mimicking Cleto’s ratio from the day before.

Memphis

4/9 – While you’re unlikely to see him heading up any prospect lists, Raul Valdes had a good beginning to his Cardinals’ career striking out 9 in 6.1 innings. Valdes allowed just 1 run.

4/10 – Of the starters in Memphis, Lance Lynn probably has the best shot of a protracted career in the Cardinals’ rotation. His first start was borderline for this list but we’ll give it to him anyway. Lynn went 7 innings allowing just 1 run and struck out 3 while not walking a batter. The primary caution to his line is the 10 of 15 outs in play viaflyouts.

Relief – Not to be missed among the starters, Memphis’s troika of legitimate relief prospects Fernando Salas, Eduardo Sanchez and Adam Reifer have combined for 7.1 scoreless innings over the first 4 games.  They’ve struck out 6, walked no one and allowed just 5 hits.

Small sample size warning obviously, but it gives us some reinforcement of the information we had already on these guys.  Lynn is not a pure groundball pitcher but that’s not necessarily a bad thing and Dickson can get groundballs out of anyone.

Now that both look to be headed back to Memphis for the season, how has Spring Training changed your mind about these two hurlers if at all?

With the release of the Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus lists came some unusual — and the first I’d heard mention of anywhere — reports that Lynn had gained some velocity on his fastball. John Vuch, Director of Minor League Operations, was kind enough to fill me in on some of the details of Lynn’s improved fastball. Mr. Vuch noted that Lynn had some minor nagging injuries earlier in the season and went on to say:

He did touch 96 on several fastballs late in the year, but really worked more consistently in the 92 MPH range (with quite a few 94’s).  Since earlier in the year he would sit at 90 MPH with the occasional 92-93,  the gain in velocity is significant, at least in terms of where he finished the season.  Much of Lynn’s success stems from the deception in his delivery, which allows his fastball to “jump” out of his hand, making his fastball a swing and miss pitch.

Without seeing Lynn’s new fastball, I can’t speak to the deception but 2 mph on average is a very significant velocity gain. I’m not sure that it radically alters the “consensus” view of Lynn as a middle of the rotation type player but it certainly grates against my personal opinion based on the time I saw him in person and the video of Lynn I’ve watched.

I also asked Mr. Vuch what might the ideal version of Lance Lynn fully developed would be like.

Ideally, Lynn can pick up where he left off at the end of last season, and continue to improve his command of all pitches while maintaining his velocity.  A big key for him is to continue to have a consistent delivery, which helps him to reduce his “mistake pitches” (which led to the majority of his mid-season HR problems). When his command is on and he makes his pitches and hits his spots, he’s very effective, so it’s really a matter of consistently executing his pitches.

There’s a bit of a coy response there since any pitcher that consistently executes their pitches is going to see the best results there. I think Mr. Vuch is speaking to a general point that we can talk about control and command of pitches in an isolated sense but those things are very closely tied to good repeatable mechanics. Specifically for Lynn and the long held Cardinals organizational philosophy about pitching low in the zone, command is a factor in his effectiveness to avoid the homerun.

It’s worth keeping in mind that Lynn did have a mixed 2010 but I hope this helps shed some light on (some) of the reasons for that. I’d feel irresponsible to tell you to totally disregard his first half performance — indeed, Lynn will probably have times when he loses his mechanics for a couple starts and has command issues — but Mr. Vuch’s words certainly lend credence to the arguments that Lynn’s second half was more characteristic of his ability than the first half of 2010.

It’s easy to focus on what we as fans have considered organizational “failures” in the past with regards to certain prospects. For those of you keeping score, this looks like a clear point for the organizational “successes” column.

Lance Lynn (along with Brandon Dickson) currently stand as insurance for the likes of Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Jake Westbrook, Jaime Garcia and Kyle Lohse.  Lynn spent the entirety of 2010 in Memphis as a starter racking up an impressive 160+ innings.  As the season progressed, Lynn’s numbers improved especially after emerging from a dismal June.

I’ve been critical of Lynn’s 2010 campaign and, on balance, I stand by that assessment.  Lynn’s 2009 FIP at Springfield was 3.47 and rose to 4.43 in 2010 at Memphis.  A significant part of that was an increased HR rate (21 in 164 IP).  Lynn’s HR rate in 2009 is certainly a partial product of luck based on his batted ball profile.

The other area for concern would be the decrease in groundball percentage from 2009 to 2010.  Lynn is at his best when he’s able to pitch to the lower half of the zone with his fastball and mix in his breaking stuff off the plate low and away.  The decreased groundball percentage, while small, is problematic for a pitcher who lacks a true out pitch.

The positive notes from 2010 are simple but important. Lynn struck out a higher percentage of batters and walked a lower percentage relative to 2009.  Strikeout-to-walk ratio is a key indicator of pitcher performance and this improvement is something Lynn should look to build on.

It’s simple to say that a successful 2011 campaign would be one where Lynn maintains all of his successes and shrinks his weaknesses. That’s unrealistic though. The homerun rate of 2010 is closer to what we should expect than 2009.  The improved K:BB rate is important but I’ll be watching the GB% in 2011.  A pitcher with middling stuff, Lynn could become more than a back-of-the-rotation pitcher by making strides in that area.  The Cardinals have planned for that development and work to take place in Memphis but as we’ve seen in the past, injuries can derail the best laid plans.

Law:

Lynn has a four-pitch mix, all pitches average but nothing plus, led by a solid-average fastball with good tailing sink that generates some ground balls and helps him keep the ball in the park, and two breaking balls to change hitters’ eye levels and move the ball around the zone.

Azru:

There’s nothing in his repetoire that stands out as a swing and miss offering.  The fastballs are a tick above average.  The breaking ball is an above average pitch and the changeup is a functional average third pitch.

It would seem that there’s two discrepancies here: 1) the existence of a changeup and 2) the perception of his breaking ball.  The changeup was definitive when I watched video and Law doesn’t explicitly say he doesn’t throw a change instead naming two breaking pitches and a fastball by name.  What I referred to as more of a tailing fastball could well be one of those breaking pitches to with a slurvy-curveball.  The second point I’ll readily concede to Law’s experience that the breaking pitch may be better described as ‘average’ than ‘above average’.

Law:

Lynn’s also a strong competitor who pitches very aggressively, and I think he’ll go after big league hitters like a veteran when he gets the opportunity.

This is an oft cited feature of Lynn and while I don’t disagree with the assessment, I’d liken demeanor to team chemistry.  There’s little proof that it matters (within reason) but equally little way to measure it.  So while you’ll hear his demeanor quoted, I’m more concerned about the lack of an out pitch.

Azru:

Can he be a command pitcher with good stuff and a nice mix of pitchs?  Yes, absolutely.  I’d be inclined to believe that he could do that as early as mid next year.

Lynn’s a solid bet to make an impact in the near future.  I wouldn’t pin hopes on him to be more than a 4.50 ERA (in a context neutral environment and team – necessary caveats for ERA) but he could be that very shortly.  It warms my circuits when FR perspectives match outside perspectives closely.

Conditioning: Let’s start with the part that’s likely to make me unpopular.  Lynn is out of shape.  Plain and simple.  Does this inhibit his ability to pitch?  Probably not but it’s in Lynn’s best interest for avoiding injury to get himself in shape.  There’s an easy 15-20 lbs that need to be shed before 2010.

Delivery: Lynn has some funk to his delivery.  He comes to a set balance point before starting his momentum forward.  His throwing motion is what I would describe as almost pushing the ball forward.  He ends his delivery well leaving him able to reasonably field balls nearby.  What is particularly unusual about his motion is that he doesn’t look at the catcher and homeplate until his forward momentum is already initiated.  He’s about halfway through his delivery before he picks up his target.  It leaves me wondering if he won’t be prone to the stolen base but that’s little more than speculation.  The landing leg comes forward abruptly as he plants and delivers to the plate.  All told, the motion is just a bit different enough that it may disturb a hitter’s timing.

Command: Lynn features average or better command of his pitches.  He locates the ball well in the zone though I’d prefer to see fewer fastballs elevated in the zone given the paucity of raw velocity.  His success is going to be largely dependent on his continued ability to throw the pitches where he wants when he wants.

Fastball: You’ll see two distinct varieties of fastballs from Lynn.  He’s got a harder fastball that sits around 89-90 and with touch 92.  It’s a pretty straight pitch but his height allows him to drive the ball down in the zone.  It’s a pitch that would seem to be a candidate for a lot of long homeruns if major league hitters get a hold of it.  Nonetheless it is a viable offering.  The second fastball drops a mile or two in average velocity and has considerably more movement on it. He’ll work it in on hitter’s hands and watch them swing over the top of it.

Changeup: Believe it or not, he does have a changeup.  It’s a tumbling changeup that falls out of the bottom of the zone.  He didn’t throw it often (fewer than a dozen times in the game) but the delivery is good and similar to the fastball leaving hitters out in front of the pitch.

Curveball: Curve or slider depending on your preference.  It’s a very good breaking pitch in my estimation and he snapped off several that made batters look silly.  Given the vertical movement of the pitch, it’s an offering that should be viable against lefties as well as righties.  He’ll need to move it off the plate more when pitching to lefties but there’s a reasonable chance it could become a backdoor breaking ball catching the outside edge to a left handed hitter.

Summary: After watching the video, I came away a little disappointed.  There’s nothing in his repetoire that stands out as a swing and miss offering.  The fastballs are a tick above average.  The breaking ball is an above average pitch and the changeup is a functional average third pitch.  He’s got different looks to him and what he throws and he’ll need that to survive because the raw stuff was very underwhelming.  I don’t see a lot that needs improvement beyond tightening up the breaking pitch and throwing the changeup with consistency.  Can he be a command pitcher with good stuff and a nice mix of pitchs?  Yes, absolutely.  I’d be inclined to believe that he could do that as early as mid next year.  What I didn’t see was anything more than a back of the rotation pitcher.

16. Tyler Henley
See you in: Springfield
Journey Theme Song: Remember Me
Best Case 2009: Henley continues to play centerfield and stays healthy for a full season.  10HRs, double digit SBs and a .300/.350/.450 line with plus defense.
Worst Case 2009: Things fall apart in a hurry as his lack of power leaves him over matched and turns him into a .250 slap hitter.  Injuries derail his season midway through.

17. Tyler Herron
See you in: Springfield
Journey Theme Song: Don’t Be Down on Me Baby
Best Case 2009: The pinpoint control from 2007 returns with walk rates under 2 BB/9.  The GB% stays steady around average (mid-40%) and the strikeouts hover around 7 K/9.
Worst Case 2009: Undone by his lack of pure stuff, he travels the way of Trey Hearne and fades from the collective Cardinal fan consciousness.

18. Lance Lynn
See you in: Palm Beach
Journey Theme Song: Nothin’ Comes Close
Best Case 2009: Lynn recaptures his velocity from college and the heavy fastball puts hitters on their heels and balls on the ground.
Worst Case 2009: The velocity doesn’t come close to college levels and Lynn is a busted 1st-round pick.

19. Fernando Salas
See you in: Memphis
Journey Theme Song: Never Walk Away
Best Case 2009: Ummm, 2008 again please.  Walking under 2 batters per nine and striking out a ridiculous 12 per 9.  It’s easy to forget Salas since he doesn’t throw as hard as Perez, Motte, Reifer, Samuel or any of the other fireballers we drool over.
Wost Case 2009: 2007.  The gopher-itis gets worse and a return to earth of the strikeout rate makes him fringy middle relief fodder.

20. Adam Ottavino
See you in: Springfield
Journey Theme Song: The Party’s Over
Best Case 2009: Ottavino rebounds with a healthy shoulder and improved command.  140+ innings with an ERA under 4 and a K rate over 8.
Worst Case 2009: The command issues continue to hamper him and his balky shoulder balks once more as he slips off the depth chart and travels the Blake Hawksworth career path.

What is shocking to me is there was no love shown for Lance Lynn. I mean, Danny Farquhar? How is someone who profiles as a middle reliever better than Lynn? The only thing I could think of is the piggyback system was Lynn’s doom in the rankings; maybe he didn’t qualify due to a lack of innings. If that’s the reason, then no big deal.

Just a note: I hate to be a wet blanket because personally think info is meant to be shared and I’m not really a fan of pay-per content, but BA does have copyrights on their chat and all their other subscriber content. I would ask that content would please not be retransmitted on the site in the comments.

UPDATE: I guess the chat isn’t subscriber only, so I don’t feel bad cutting and pasting this question from some weird Cardinal fan upset about Lynn being snubbed.

Q: Erik from Cedar Rapids, IA asks:
Thanks for the chats, this is one of my favorite times of the year to be a subscriber to BA. I was wondering however: Why no Lance Lynn? Seems like he’d be a shoe-in to me for this list.
A: Aaron Fitt: Lynn did not pitch enough to qualify for the list, but I’ve always been a fan of his at Ole Miss. Kind of like Brad Holt, his strength his is ability to command his heavy fastball, but his secondary stuff is fringy.

So I think he would have ranked if he had thrown more. For what it’s worth, KLaw gave his curve a 50 but future grade a 60. One thing I like about Law is, he does his own evaluating and you can decide. BA quotes these mystery scouts, so you can’t really evaluate the evaluator.

This article discusses Jess Todd‘s rough outing last night, including this analysis from Todd himself:

“My mechanics are a little off right now,” Todd said. “I’ve been flying open a little bit, and it’s just something I’m going to have to work on.”

Batavia was postponed due to rain, but the rest of the system was all in action today and they went 2-3 on the night. All the details are after the jump.

Portland 4, Memphis 15

• Brian Barton looks to be ready to resume his role on the bench for the big club. He was 2-2 with a double and three walks out of the leadoff spot.
• D’Angelo Jimenez was 2-5 with a double and a walk.
• Nick Stavinoha was 2-6.
• Rico Washington was 2-4 with a double and a walk.
• David Freese was 2-4 with a double, triple and a walk.
• Jarrett Hoffpauir was 2-4 with a walk.
• Bryan Anderson was 1-2 with a pair of walks.
• PJ Walters had a solid evening, if a little wild. He went six innings, allowing two runs on three hits and four walks. He also struck out four.
• Matt Clement came in and gave up a pair of runs on three hits and a walk.
• Matthew Scherer finished off the blowout with a scoreless inning.

Arkansas 1, Springfield 2

• Adam Ottavino had a great outing. He went seven innings, allowing only an unearned run on five hits and a walk. He struck out seven.
• Josh Dew followed with a scoreless inning, pitching around three walks and Luke Gregerson threw two perfect innings.
• The Cardinals only got five hits, but runs in the ninth and tenth brought home the win.
• Jon Jay was 2-5.
• Tyler Greene was 1-5 with a double and a stolen base.
• Mark Shorey and Andrew Brown each had a hit.

Brevard County 4, Palm Beach 3

• Tyler Henley was 2-5 with a pair of doubles.
• Brandon Buckman and Daniel Descalso were each 1-3 with a walk.
• Mark Diapoules pitched a great game, going seven innings and striking out seven while only allowing one run on four hits and two walks.
• Diapoules great game was undone by Kenny Maiques, who gave up a hit and three walks in a third of an inning, which led to three runs.
• Blake King didn’t help Maiques out, allowing two of his three inherited runners to score. King lasted 1.2 innings, giving up a hit and a walk and striking out two.

Quad Cities 1, Lansing 6

• Pete Kozma and Brett Wallace were each 1-4. Kozma doubled.
• Adron Chambers and Oliver Marmol were each 1-3.
• Joshua Wilson got the start and gave up six runs (five earned) in five innings on nine hits and a walk.
• Brandon Garner, Matt Spade and Dylan Gonzalez each pitched a scoreless inning. Garner and Gonzalez each struck out a pair.

Oneonta 0, Batavia 0 – Postponed

Bristol 3, Johnson City 2

• Alex Castellanos provided the offense for Johnson City tonight by going 3-3 with a double and a home run.
• Brett Lilley, Jack Cawley and Jairo Martinez were each 1-3.
• Andres Rosales got the start and struck out five in 4.2 innings, giving up only an unearned run on two hits and two wild pitches.
• Michael Blazek pitched 3.2 innings, allowing two runs (one earned) on five hits and a walk. He struck out six.