Around this time last year some of us were bemoaning the departure of some of our favorite Fabergé eggs. Chris Perez and then later Jess Todd went to Cleveland for Mark DeRosa. Matt Holliday was acquired for the man we affectionately dubbed the Walrus, as well as Clayton Mortensen and Shane Peterson. That was four of our top ten prospects going into the 2009 season, and Peterson was in most publications’ top 15-20.
I wasn’t a big fan of either trade at the moment they happened, but I gradually sobered up from my prospect fanboyism and realized that the deals, in themselves, were perfectly justifiable even if it meant putting a pretty big dent in the farm system. So far, Luhnow has done a pretty good job re-stocking the system with some potential, assuming the tops picks of the draft sign and the Carlos Matias signing is OK’d.
I thought it would be fun just to check in with some of the players and see how they’re doing for their new clubs. This isn’t to pronounce a winner or a loser in the trade, just a status update.
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Posted on April 11th, 2009 by erik in Luke Gregerson, tags: pitch fx
I was somewhat pleasantly surprised to see Luke Gregerson make the Padres out of spring training. So far he’s made a nice jump from AA – no runs and 3 strikeouts in 3 innings pitched.
Let’s take a look at Gregerson through two games through the lens of pitch f/x. I should warn you, I’m no Mike Fast or Harry Pavlidis. In fact, I just learned how to chart some of this stuff yesterday and know enough to be dangerous…just thought it would be fun to try out on with Gregerson.
Pitch fx’s pitch classification is pretty poor at times, Gregerson is more of a sinker/slider guy and I’m sure some of those four-seams should be classified two-seam. I was just too lazy to change them. That is a nice slider, as advertised.
Here is where his pitches went -
And now for his release point -
Overall, I think Gregerson will fit in nicely with the Padres. He’s not a world-beater and probably is no more than a middle reliever, but he has a nice sinker/slider combo and will keep the ball on the ground and in the park. Especially in Petco.
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Posted on March 23rd, 2009 by erik in Luke Gregerson, Mark Worrell
Eh. I liked Gregerson, he had one of the better sinker/slider combos of anyone in the system, but the club has a plethora of right-handed relief as it is. BA rated him the Cards’ 29th best prospect. Last week, it was announced that Mark Worrell is going to undergo Tommy John surgery. So far it’s hard to like this deal from a the standpoint of a Padre fan.
Note: As pointed out by Alex, I goofed big time on my last analysis, but since I’m the godfather I’m going to take a mulligan. 23 year old C pitching prospects have a surplus value of $1.3M each. It’s that low because they have a 78% chance of busting, a 19% of becoming a contributor and a 3% chance of being an everyday player according to Victor Wang’s piece in The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2009. Khalil Greene is projected to be a 1.5 wins above replacement player, worth about $6.6M on the free agent market…the predicted free agent market that is. It’s more like $6.15 given the amount of below market deals made this winter, perhaps even less. Greene’s salary is $6.5M. So in the end, the Cardinals gave up $2.3M in assets and are paying an above market salary for Greene.
Doesn’t look like a win, but considering they only had to give up two older C prospects for someone who has not long ago posted WARs of 3.8 and 3.5, it’s definitely worthwhile move in my view. So far in spring training at least, Greene looks like a good bounce back candidate, both offensively and defensively.
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