Allen Craig

Craig has seen some action in St. Louis, and he struggled with inconsistent playing time, but he did show signs of his natural hitting ability in his last stint at the end of 2010. Craig has been a hitter since he joined the system, boasting a plus tool in power, and natural hitting ability. He’ll hit for a decent average, and his above-average plate discipline will yield enough walks for him to get on at an decent rate. I thought it was good to see him work on his discipline since he entered the system, improving his walk rate at a pretty steady increase as he continued to advance and face tougher competition.

That competition might have exposed him a bit in ’10 with St. Louis. Big league off-speed, and breaking stuff tricked him. He showed improvement yet again towards the end of the year, staying back on a couple of breaking balls, and using his strong weight transfer and swing leverage to produce some extra base hits. Projections for Craig have varied, but with a little help from our friend Rui over at GasHouseGraphs.com, we’ve got a graphical matrix look at the payroll flux, and WAR projections with a 2012 and beyond roster of Craig replacing Pujols’ plate appearances.

The right side graph on each year is the projected WAR. The bars on the left are “paid-for-WAR,” which was created by Rui converting the 2011 salaries into WAR, and then implying an 8% inflation rate for each year from 2012-2016. So to find the payroll numbers you’d multiply the left side by 4.5 for ’11, 4.86 for ’12, and so on…

Using player wOBA from ZiPS, and a league average wOBA of .335, plus the assumed PA total of 636 (Pujols’ ZiPS projection), Craig projects to keep St. Louis around 75-78 wins in 2012, with his highest WAR total coming in 2014 with about a 3-win season, and I think he has the tools to exceed that ceiling.

Maybe the most attractive component of the Craig route would be the monetary flexibility. The payroll commitments for 2012 would be around $70 million, which leaves plenty of cash to spend on nine roster spots. With Craig at first, and smart investments elsewhere, the Cardinals could easily be in the mid-80s in terms of wins in their first year without Pujols.

Looking past 2012 with Craig at first, St. Louis’ system has loads of high upside, cost controlled pitching talent on the way that gives reason to believe 90-win seasons wouldn’t be too far away in life without Pujols, and Chris Carpenter. If the improving farm system can provide more flexibility, challenges like keeping Adam Wainwright, or balancing payroll around a long-term contract like Matt Holliday’s won’t be so bad.

Mark Hamilton

At 26, Hamilton has had a hard time breaking into the big leagues. The near future doesn’t look any brighter for him with almost no shot at making the big club out of camp in ’11. From what we hear, he’s not very good defensively, and he lacks the versatility to make his best tool — his bat — an attribute that could benefit a bench role. He shows good plate discipline, and recognizing pitch types well with the ability to go the other way. Hamilton draws walks, and generates good leverage in his swing to produce plenty of doubles and long balls. He still hasn’t been able to figure out left-handed pitching, but does he ever rake against righties.

He hit a bit of a wall when he got to Springfield his first time in 2007, and he even had trouble his second go around at AA in 2008, but in the past two years he’s posted a .900 OPS twice in a combination of time at Springfield and Memphis. Looking at another matrix Rui made for Hamilton, St. Louis would probably not be getting enough production at a position like first base with Hamilton starting there from 2012 and on. With a bat that crushes righties like Hamilton, it would be nice to find a bench spot for him somewhere if he can find a way to be more versatile in the field.

Here’s an outlook on the roster with Hamilton being the everyday first basemen using the same methods we used for Craig:

Payroll wouldn’t differ too much from Craig playing, but you’d probably be looking at something slightly less in wins in ’12 and beyond. With the aging curves applied, Hamilton would plateau around the age of 30 with a 1.7 WAR year in 2014. Keep in mind we’re assuming average defense here, so that would project Hamilton as nothing special at the plate either. At a corner position like first, the Cardinals probably can’t afford to have a bat that just isn’t producing. With Hamilton’s lefty split struggles and minimal defensive value, going down a route where he gets 600 PA probably isn’t ideal.

Matt Adams

After Craig, and Hamilton, there are a number of first base prospects that could be thrown into the conversation as additional replacements, but none of them are really close enough to be a viable option in ’12. It would take a huge year and camp performance for Matt Adams to be there the year after next, but he certainly has the best bat at that position in all of the system, and I think there’s reason to be excited about his future.

After being touted as maybe the top Division-II hitter, he was a 23rd round selection in ’09, and he’s continued to hit in his first two years of professional ball. Adams broke into the system hitting above .340 at rookie ball, and Low-A, with a combined .424 wOBA to boot (yeah, that’ll do.) He measures in around 6’3, 230, and he does a good job of generating exceptional power by staying back well, and quick hands.

For a guy who gets big power, you don’t see a ton of swing-and-misses from Adams, which is encouraging. While he does draw walks at an okay clip, I think he’ll need to be a little more patient as starts to face better competition. He extended his success in 2010 with a .393 wOBA, including 22 homers, and 41 doubles in 510 PA. He’s going to start 2011 in Springfield, and while I’m not worried about how an above-averGe hitter will do in, you know, the bandbox that is Hammons Field — or just the Texas League in general — it should be noted that this is where Hamilton really hit a wall.

Now, Adams certainly has a higher ceiling than Hamilton at this point, but competition does pickup in AA, so to just go ahead and assume that because he raked at Johnson City, Batavia, and Quad Cities, then he’ll be fine because he’s at a smaller park in Springfield would be a little premature, in my opinion.

Another thought experiment for the end of the year 2010, this one a bit darker and one I hope never comes to fruition.  If the Cardinals do not re-sign Albert Pujols at 1B, will they be able to replace him internally from the farm system?  (Odds are that the Cardinals WILL re-sign Albert, but it does not hurt to take a look at our 1B depth just in case.)

The First basemen in the Cardinals system have been blocked by Pujols ever since he moved from 3B to LF to 1B and stayed there.  Pujols has been a full-time first baseman since 2004 and any prospect that was reaching the minor leagues’ ceiling as first base needed to be moved for a player at another position.  (See Wallace, Brett who will be a permanent 1B in the majors.)  That being said, what do the Cardinals have left in the minors at first base?  The great thing about first base is that it can be played by any slugging player that does not quite have a position and the Cardinals have a few of those as well.

Obviously, no one in the universe is going to replace Pujols’ production, so we can only look at the internal candidates to replace him at 1B and how well they will do.

First into the breach: Mark Hamilton. Hamilton is an interesting prospect who got his first cup of coffee in the majors this September, which shows the Cardinals wanted to get a better look at him.  He’s 6-4 and 220, so he’s got the size to play first base.  As a 25-year old in Memphis this season, he had a wOBA of .415 and an OPS of .981  which signals to anyone a great season.  He hit well between Springfield in Memphis in 2009, but not nearly as well as 2010.  He’s a prospect on the rise, but his “prospect egg timer” is about to go off when he will be a 26 year old in AAA this season.  ZiPS projects him to have a OPS+ of 95 this season with a slash line of .246/.322/.408.  That shows good progress for the 26 year old, but he will need more good seasons in the minors to come close to his AAA lines.

Also receiving votes: Allen Craig. In Memphis, his second most frequent position was 1B after LF.  He even got 5 games there in the majors towards the end of the season.  We know much more about Craig than Hamilton and ZiPs for 2011 likes him much better as well with a slash line of: .280/.333/.438 for an OPS+ of 105.

Steven Hill. Hill has played only catcher in 2010, but played 25 games at 1B for Springfield in 2009.  His bat is much more valuable at catcher and obviously the Cardinals value him there, but he is capable of playing first.

Since 2012 will be the goal here, we can look a little farther down the line to see who else might be available in the Cardinals system.

In the Reserve Force: Andrew Brown. Brown is a solid prospect just finishing up Springfield with decent numbers.  Hamilton and Craig put up better numbers than him, so he is still considered a long shot and the Cardinals are trying him in the outfield and at 3B.

Xavier Scruggs. Scruggs is another power prospect with a lot of strikeouts.  His numbers do not jump off the page.  He would need a huge 2011 to be considered a replacement in 2012.

This last group would not be considered to replace Pujols in 2012, but become a permanent replacement going forward.

The Rear Guard: Matt Adams. Adams is your typical bad-bodied swing for the fences power first base prospect.  In Adams’ one year with Quad Cities, he struck out a lot and will need to work on his plate discipline.

Victor Sanchez. The Cardinals recent 2011 draftee hasn’t had much time in the minors yet, but MLB Bonus Baby had this to say about the Cardinals draft pick:

Victor Sanchez, 1B – 26th Round

Sanchez did well as a freshman but floundered his last two season at San Diego. He has a powerful swing and could be a solid power hitter if he can stay healthy. He has the ability to be a solid hitter and a decent defensive 1B. He showed good plate discipline at San Diego, that it reason for optimism. He has top of the draft potential if everything is going well, so the Cardinals could well have gotten a steal in the 26th round.

It is impossible to replace Albert Pujols, but if the Cardinals are forced to replace him from within, they have a few interesting prospects ready to step in right away and a few long term prospects that could turn into MLB players going forward.  However, the Cardinals do not have a sure thing waiting in the wings and (heaven forbid) the 1B replacement process will evolve slowly.

Kary Booher left some big shoes to fill, leaving the News-Leader to a full-time gig at Baseball America. Is it exciting, nerve-wracking, stepping in his role covering the Springfield Cardinals?

It’s definitely exciting, regardless of whose shoes I’m filling. I’m a youngun a year out of college, so I’ve been excited to show what I can do. I’ve been a lot more places than you’d expect for someone my age, and I’ve enjoyed my time on the beat so far, breaking news, finding stories and watching prospects develop.

Kary’s a good guy and a great reporter. He set the bar high for our readers in Springfield — and all over Cardinal Nation, for that matter. His work speaks for itself. As for following in his footsteps, I’m going to sum that up with my all-time least favorite sports cliche: It is what it is. I’ve just got to go out there and do what I do, and the rest will take care of itself.

But seriously, it’s been awesome.

You had a strong opinion on why Wallace not only doesn’t belong in the majors this year, nor AAA. Care to elaborate on that a little?

For the record, I only said that Wallace doesn’t belong in St. Louis this year – not Memphis. I received a little flak about it from people afraid I was bashing Wallace. That’s not the case at all. I saw him start the season with two massive home runs…and hit walk-off home runs on back-to-back nights. He’s got a tremendous amount of talent. With Rasmus in St. Louis, I think Wallace is the top prospect in the system.

That said, he had holes in his game during the time I watched him. I thought the promotion to Memphis was too soon, but Freese’s injury forced it. That’s a moot point.

His defense remains an issue. And his swing had flaws when Texas League pitchers threw around him. If he couldn’t pull the ball, he wasn’t as effective. Pitchers threw him outside or wayyyy inside, and, based on what I saw, he hadn’t figured out how to get around that.

A few days before the promotion, Wallace apparently found problems with his swing. And he’s fixed them. The numbers in Memphis show that. But he’s not ready for St. Louis. He needs to struggle. He needs to go through slumps. And he needs to learn from them. Slumps happen to everyone, even Pujols. It’s better for him to go through them in the minors where the pressure (and money) aren’t as big. If he found the flaw in his swing and corrected it, then I’ll give him props for that. It’s a sign of maturity and shows that he’s closer to St. Louis than I thought.

There’s also the money aspect. I think the club would like to keep him off of the 40-man roster this year and give him the chance to compete for the starting 3B job in spring training.

Wallace is an extremely hard worker. He spent a lot of time with Derrick May and others working on his swing. And he’s put in time working on his glove and range, too. Because of his body type, he might not ever become an average MLB defender. If that’s the case, it won’t be because of a lack of effort. I just think he needs a full season in the minors before he’s in the discussion to replace Troy Glaus.

There are some pretty impressive offensive numbers we’re seeing from some of the S-Cards. Since you get to see the team play more than any of us probably do, how much of this would you say is Hammons Field/Texas League-inflated and how much of this would you say is the real deal?

It’s a little of both. When Curt Smith hit his first home run here the other day, he only got one arm on it. But, with the wind blowing out of Hammons Field, it carried over the left-field wall. “Welcome to Springfield,” Steven Hill told Smith after the game.

But this lineup definitely has some pop. Hill, Smith, Henley, Jones and Descalso have powerful bats, as does a healthy Mark Hamilton. Tyler Herron told me this spring that he knows the team’s offense will be there. If its pitching is solid, there’s no reason to think they can’t compete for the Texas League title. I agree.

What have you seen from the Cards’ supplemental first rounder Lance Lynn so far? What do you feel his upside is?

Unfortunately, I haven’t seen very much. He’s only pitched one game at home, so I’ve only seen that plus a few bullpen sessions. His fastball is solid (up to 93), and his curve is better than I heard. Didn’t see enough of the change or slider to give a scouting report.

One thing I did see: composure. The defense collapsed around him when Hamilton didn’t charge a grounder and Pete Kozma made an error. Lynn kept his cool and pitched 6.2 solid (but unspectacular) innings. Plus he’s a fellow Indiana boy. Nice to have another native Hoosier around.

Best-case scenario: No. 3 starter. Worse-case scenario: A bulldog in the bullpen, capable of spot starts.

Daryl Jones has been viewed with some skepticism because of his previous struggles, but it seems to me he’s now doing it two years running. Give me some of your impressions of Jones.

Last year definitely wasn’t a fluke. His bat is definitely there, although the power is down from last season. He said that’s because he’s shortened his swing, which means fewer strikeouts but also fewer home runs. That’ll help him as he continues to move through the system. His glove is fine, and I do think he has a below-average LF arm.

He’s a little flashy with a great personality. One of the best guys in the clubhouse to talk to and a pretty hard worker who puts in the swings he needs to. The front office is very high on him, and I expect him to be in Memphis after the All-Star break, if not before.

The biggest question from scouts is about his speed. Most scouts I’ve talked to have him at average or below-average speed from home to first. That’s a major problem for a guy with a game built around his wheels. He can turn his speed off and on. I saw him sneak into home Monday with a great heads-up play, so I know he has wheels. It’s just a matter of using them — and the rest of his tools — all the time. But consistency is the biggest thing most guys need to work on in the minors, so let’s put that in proper context.

Trey Hearne was the Viva El Birdos approved sleeper prospect a few years back, and is back putting up some strong numbers in AA. What’s been the key to his success?

Throwing strikes, plain and simple, as he’s told me repeatedly. He locates his fastball well, and he’s got a plus curveball. One scout told me that’s been the biggest reason for his success — not a lot of hitters at this level can hit really good curveballs. And he has a really good curveball.

A better sign — he’s put his team in a position to win even when he doesn’t have his best stuff. See, Sunday: 6 IP, 4 H, 4 BB 2 ER and only 2 K. He didn’t look great, but he left with the team was in a position to win. It helps that Hearne doesn’t get flustered and doesn’t sweat the small stuff. He’s a very laid back guy, which helps him on the mound.

I didn’t see Hearne’s breakout coming. I thought that when Mura came back from the DL, Hearne would go from the rotation back to the pen. But the way Hearne is pitching, I think it’s more likely for him to earn a promotion to Memphis than a trip back to the bullpen.

Mark Hamilton looked poised for a break out and before hitting the DL. What’s his status?

He’s on the DL, obviously, after pulling a muscle running out a grounder Friday. Which means I regularly get to ask the most awkward question in all of sports journalism: So, how’s the groin?

Hamilton said he’s felt better each of the last few days and will be back in about a week. The rest also gives him time to heal a foot injury that’s been nagging since spring training.

I think he’s figured out Double-A pitching. He was great in his first game here after extended spring training (2 for 5 with two doubles) and hasn’t slowed down (7 home runs and a .333 average in May). When he comes back, he’ll be fine and continue to hit well until he gets a chance to move up.

I’m going to go all James Lipton on you (hopefully sans the freakiness) and just say a name, and you give me what pops into your head.

Daniel Descalso. Scrappy. Hard worker, blue-collar ball player with a plus glove and a much-improved bat. Some scouts wonder if he can be an everyday second baseman in the majors…and I think he can.

Steven Hill. Chicken-fried. Hill is one of the many Texans in the clubhouse, and he looks and acts just like you’d picture someone from Stephen F. Austin State. His walk-up song is “Chicken Fried” by Zac Brown — a stark contrast to the rap that guys like Rapoport and Descalso prefer. As far as his game? Good bat (although he’s been struggling over the last week or so, hitting .178) with plenty of pop. He’s got work to do behind the plate, but he’s making progress.

Tony Cruz. Steven Hill’s alter ego. Lame, I know. They entered the year with similar enough scouting reports: good bats trying to find a position. Now they’re opposites. Hill’s bat is definitely there (overlooking this mini-slump), but the glove needs work. One scout told me Cruz has the defense to become a backup catcher, but his bat hasn’t been great this season.

Tyler Herron. Improved. He struggled here last year and, from what I’ve heard, wasn’t impressive in spring training (I didn’t get to see him pitch much when I was in Jupiter, Fla.). Now he’s looking like a first-round pick with four ER in his last four starts. Average to slightly above average fastball and a plus curveball.

Kenny Maiques. Oy. One scout used the dread four-letter word — wild — when he saw Kenny up here. He struggled, to say the least. I saw him face two batters one game, throw eight consecutive balls — including a pitch-out that sailed into the backstop. Obviously he’s going through a tough time right now with his drug suspension, and I wish him the best.

Curt Smith. Hitter. Dude can hit, plain and simple. Lightning-quick bat with some power. Fielding needs to improve, but his bat can play. Plus, the major leagues need more Curacao natives who became 39th-round draft picks out of Maine and speak four languages. Right?

Tyler Henley. Football player. He looks, acts and talks like a running back from a big high school in Dallas, and that’s the mentality he brings to the ballpark. I’ll add another thought: Underrated. He’s hitting a very quiet .333. But after his grand slam and a 3-for-4 game this homestand, he’s not under the radar anymore.

Francisco Samuel. Good Sammy/Bad Sammy. One game, he’s lights-out. 100-mph fastball. SICK 90-mph slider. Unhittable.

The next? He’s all over the place with no command whatsoever. And, dare I say, that four-letter word. Wild.

I will say this about Sammy: I think he’s the best prospect in Springfield. One scout said he could be a major-league All-Star closer. Others willingly and easily project him as an MLB closer. I’ve heard that one scout said he’d take Sammy on his major-league club by the end of the year. If he gets his fastball command down, he’s got the stuff to be a star. And I think between guys like Dyar Miller and (eventually) Duncan, he’ll iron those problems out.

Eddie Degerman. Catapult. Or someone throwing a grenade. Or someone giving someone a pie in the face. Take your pick. But he’s looked better in his last few appearances, regardless of what you think about his motion.

Jeff Luhnow. Northwestern Wildcats. Bet you didn’t see that one coming. Luhnow got his MBA at Northwestern — my alma mater. Regardless of how you feel about his number crunching, draft picks and willingness to take players like Degerman and Joe Williams whom others wouldn’t touch, the guy’s brilliant. I don’t think anyone will argue that.

Ron Warner. Competitor. Winning is something that gets overlooked a lot in the minors, where developing prospects is (understandably) the goal. Pop is a good teacher and can help young guys along the way…but deep down he’s a competitor who hates to lose.

Can you tell me why Pete Kozma is in AA?

I can try. This organization believes in promoting top prospects aggressively, and the front office thinks Kozma is a top prospect. The Cardinals have already invested a lot in him ($1.395 million signing bonus), and they want to see what kind of return they’re going to get on their investment. That means moving him up and letting him struggle, if that’s what happens.

Kozma’s numbers haven’t been great, but he’s not a lost cause, like some fans seem to think. He’s made some sensational plays in the field, and he’s got a good arm — once he settles down, takes a breath, sets his feet and fires. When he rushes his throws and tries to force things, he has problems. He said that was his biggest problem in the field in Palm Beach, and it’s been an issue here in Springfield, too. His bat is OK, but he hasn’t always been able to find holes in the field so far. It’s a long season, so that’ll balance out. There’s also the age factor: Koz just turned 21 and is in Double-A.

Kozma is certainly taking his lumps (.214 average, 7 errors). But he’s struggled in the past, too. He hit .130 in Palm Beach last year, worked in the off-season and boosted his average to .315 there to start this season. Who’s to say he can’t do the same in Springfield this year?

Players will struggle, either in the course of a long season or in a long career. That goes for first-round picks and for undrafted guys, for All-Stars and for players who won’t make it out of A-ball. The key is to see how they react when that happens. Do they try to force things (as Kozma said he’s done in the past)? Do they try to fix things that aren’t broken? Do they learn from their mistakes?

I expect him to spend the full year in Springfield with the expectation that he’ll be in Memphis at the start of next year (or shortly thereafter). It’s fine for him to make mistakes now. As Pop Warner said recently, you’ve got to make mistakes in order to get better. If he’s making these same mistakes in two months, then it’s time for Cardinals fans to worry. But not yet.

Any passing thoughts on the Joe Williams experiment?

I respect anyone who bar tends to pay the bills and refuses to give up on his/her dream. Extra props for anyone who gets a baseball contract just before they were supposed to ship out with the hopes of becoming a Navy Seal. Too bad he couldn’t cut it on the field. So it ends with this epitaph: It was fun while it lasted.

Shameless plug — make sure to check our Cardinals blog at the News-Leader and you can follow me on Twitter (MattBaker31). I’m always happy to hear from readers, and I answer questions as quickly (and honestly) as I can.

We’ll run through the whole lot of ‘em after the jump.

First base is often the position of last resort for prospects that field poorly and carry a big stick (see: Barton, Daric). The Cardinals have a couple of those guys in the system and a few ‘natural’ first basemen, as well. It is a good thing that the big club has Albert Pujols (and reasonable temporary replacements in Mather and Duncan) because there is no one on the horizon that might be ready for a major league job in the near future.

Here are the first basemen currently in the system:

Josh Phelps – Josh was a pretty decent prospect for Toronto in the early part of this decade, although he was never much of a catcher, which is how he made his first appearances in the big leagues. As a 1B/DH, though, he had some promise, putting up OPS+ of 138 and 113 his first two full seasons in the league. He has bounced around a bit since then, but has hit everywhere he’s gone. His career numbers are .273/.344/.476, which is pretty respectable. The Cardinals are really a pretty bad fit for him since we have a glut of corner outfielders (Duncan and Mather) that can pull playing time at first while Albert is out. It seems to me that a trade to a team like the Royals would be perfect for all interested parties.

Mark Hamilton – Mark was the Cardinals second round pick out of Tulane in the 2006 draft. The big lefty is supposed to be a power hitter in the mold of someone like Justin Morneau, but he has gone through stretches where his power has been non-existent. He struggled mightily at Quad Cities in 2006, but looked great (.290/.348/.520) at Palm Beach for the first 60 games of 2007. Then he was promoted to Springfield and he hasn’t been able to crack the .400 mark for a slugging percentage since. He’s still only 23 years old, but the clock is ticking. He needs to turn it around quickly.

Steve Hill – Steve got a mention in the Catchers post, too and he’ll probably get mentioned in the leftfield post in the future. Steve was a thirteenth round pick out of Steven F. Austin University in 2007 and he has hit well and for power at every stop. It seems that the organization really doesn’t know what to do with him since they have moved him from catcher to leftfield to first and back for the last two years. The problem is that he’s been pretty bad at all of those positions. If he continues to progress I can see him as a poor man’s Jack Cust – he’s not nearly in Cust’s league in OBP, but he has the same power potential and the same lack of defensive ability.

Brandon Buckman – Buckman was the Cardinals nineteenth round pick out of Nebraska in 2006. He’s another big lefty that showed power potential early on (he slugged .590 in 67 games at Quad Cities in 2007), but has failed to hit for power as he has moved up. Age probably has a lot to do with that, as he was already 23 when he was playing at Quad Cities.

Andrew Brown – Brown is an intersting contrast to Buckman. They were teammates at Nebraska for a year, but otherwise Brown is the anti-Buckman. He is righthanded, not all that big (6’0″, 185lbs) and he has continued to hit for power as he has moved up the ladder. Brown was the Cardinals 18th round pick in 2007 and was recently promoted (ahead of Buckman) to Springfield when Steve Hill broke his hand. He earned the promotion after putting up a .330/.410/.557 line in his stint at Palm Beach. Like Hill, Brown has been moved around in the field a little, but unlike Hill he is not a complete disaster in the field.

Francisco Rivera – Rivera is a nineteen year old that has twenty games under his belt at Quad Cities. It’s tough to make much of a determination after twenty games, but so far his power seems a little low for a first baseman. He doesn’t have a real big frame at 5’11″ and 170lbs, so I’m not sure there’s much power to grow into, either. But again, this is only twenty games for a nineteen year old. His line is .286/.373/.397, so I’m going to cut him a little slack.

Osvaldo Morales – Morales is a 20 year old product of the Dominican Republic that showed good power potential in two short season stops in 2007. He was up at Quad Cities for a few weeks this year and really struggled before being sent back down to extended Spring Training. Morales has also seen a bit of time at third base, but none this year at QC.

Matthew Arburr – Arburr is another guy drafted as a third baseman (17th round in 2007) and who has some power potential, but he isn’t getting on base enough or hitting for a high enough average to be considered a real prospect at this point. He has actually played more in the outfield for Quad Cities this year, but his size (6’4″ 260lbs) will probably limit him to 1B/DH at some point.

Charlie Pelt – Charlie was taken in the 29th round of the 2007 draft out of Georgia State. He was pretty good for nine games at Johnson City last year, but then struggled at Batavia for 40 games and has struggled in limited action at Quad Cities this season. He was drafted as a senior in college, so he’s already 23 and struggling in low A. The math isn’t too difficult to figure out.

Carlos Pupo – The mystery man was a NDFA pickup by the Cardinals prior to Spring Training this year. He seems to have decent power, but we will certainly know more when the short season leagues begin.

Former First Base Prospects of Note

Albert Pujols – Of course he wasn’t a first base prospect, he was a third base prospect, but Pujols’ evolution into the best first baseman in baseball means that the guys listed above will probably never have a shot at the regular first base job in the big leagues with Cardinals organization.

Mike Ferris – Mike was the Cardinals second round pick out of Miami-Ohio in 2004 and he was cut by the team during Spring Training this season. Somehow he saw time at Memphis last season even though his best season line was .230/.344/.399 and that was at Quad Cities in 2005 as a 22 year old. Ferris was never able to hit for average or power at the higher levels and I fear that Mark Hamilton is following closely in Mike Ferris’ footsteps.

Chris Duncan – Chris is the current first baseman for the big club while Albert is hurt, but his (semi-) regular role for the team is chasing around flyballs in leftfield. He seems a bit lost at the plate this year, but when he is right he has the power and plate discipline to be an effective 1B/DH. It would be better for the Cardinals and for Duncan if he played for a team that had a 1B/DH position available.

Positive Impressions

• Rasmus, Mather, Perez - I’ve talked enough about them.
• Ian Church – At his age (27) he’s not really a prospect, especially since he bounced around the independent leagues and he’s never played above Palm Beach, but he crushed the ball in BP the day I saw him.  I’m not sure how many times we said “everybody looks good in BP” while we were in Florida, so it really takes something special (or awful) to garner attention – and Church’s BP performance did that.
• Luke Gorsett – Gorsett may not have the big league upside of guys like Daryl Jones or Jon Jay, but [warning: ambiguous Joe Morgan-speak ahead] the ball just sounded different coming off his bat. 
• Allen Craig – I said in my Top 25 that I thought Craig was the most intriguing hitting prospect in the system outside of Rasmus.  Seeing him take BP did nothing to dissuade that opinion – he was completely crushing the ball.  One of my bigger disappiontments was that I just missed Craig and Freese taking grounders at third – I really wanted to see how he looked defensively.
• Pete Kozma – I had the opposite reaction to Kozma in my Top 25, but I liked what little I saw of him.  I never got a chance to see him swing the bat, but he looked very good in the field during middle infield practice.

Negative Impressions:

• Mark Hamilton – Mark was taking BP in the same group as Craig and looked terrible.  I expected to see moon shots, but instead he was hitting these crazy linedrives with topspin on them so that they dove for the ground after getting out of the infield.  Perhaps someone out there with more knowledge regarding the technical aspects of swings can tell me what that means, but something was definitely off with his swing the day I saw him.
• Tyler Greene – Greene didn’t exactly do anything poorly, he just didn’t do anything that looked all that great.  He made all the plays in infield practice, but compared to Kozma he looked a little plodding and like he was giving half-hearted effort.  He didn’t do anything memorable in the cage, either.

Other interesting tidbits:

• One day while I was snapping pictures my father got into an interesting conversation with one of the Cardinals scouts, Mr. Fick (I don’t recall his first name).  Mr. Fick called himself the Grim Reaper because he was going around putting guys on his ‘cuts list’.  He told my dad that it was a tough job because he had signed some of those guys and had sat in their house and sold their parents on the idea of their son playing for the Cardinals.  He was a nice guy with a tough job.
• John Mozeliak sat one section over from my father’s seats at the games – here is Mo just after he signed Kyle Lohse (maybe – they announced later that day):

Here is a picture of Mo trying to work out a deal with the Braves (if we trade for Brent Lillibridge, remember that I broke the story):

And finally, here is a picture of Mo getting fed up with me taking his picture: