Archive for the “Matt Adams” Category

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Last night Matt Adams pelted his 29th and 30th homeruns to first tie and then exceed the record set by Colby Rasmus in 2007.  I’ve written about Adams with some frequncey here and I think it’s safe to say that he’s a controversial prospect among readers.

Adams jumped two levels from a full year in Quad Cities to spend the full season in Springfield.  Admittedly, Springfield is a hitter’s park in a hitter’s league but there’s little argument that Adams is having a heck of a year.  With 30 HRs and an ISO hovering near .300, Adams is a legitimate first base prospect — probably the best one the Cardinals have had since Albert Pujols.

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Kary Booher, the beat reported at the Springfield News-Leader gets the scoop yesterday from an email from John Vuch to the News-Leader that Matt Adams will stay in Springfield for the rest of the season and will not be promoted to Memphis.

Memphis players on the 40-man roster simply require at-bats, Vuch said.

“Matt’s done extremely well during his time at (Double-A), so it’s certainly not a matter of any dissatisfaction with the job he’s done,” Vuch wrote. “It’s simply that, at 22 years old and with less than 325 (at-bats) above the low-A level, there’s no need to rush him for the sake of rushing him.

Speaking of the job he’s done, Adams has certainly earned the promotion as he has hit and hit with authority since joining the Cardinals system.  In three seasons so far, he has seasonal OPSes of .947, .896 and .980.  He was skipped straight from Low-A Quad Cities to Double-A Springfield, skipping over High-A Palm Beach without missing a beat.  To extend the metaphor, he made the beat bigger and stronger with increases in BA, OBP and SLG.  Springfield and the Texas league is a hitter’s park and league, but Adams is bashing right through those barriers with a 116 wOBA+. (Which is normalized for home park and league with 100 being average.)

The best news in the story is for the Springfield Cardinals and the people of central Missouri.  The fans get to see Adams continue play the rest of this year and the Cardinals get the playoff push and corresponding gate receipts and attention.  Additionally, Matt Adams is only 22 (turns 23 later this month) which puts him a whole year younger than the average for the double-A leagues.  For all the talk of ages and leagues yesterday, Matt Adams is certainly young for his league because he skipped Palm Beach and still having a great year in Springfield.  And his year in Springfield will be whole as the Cardinals will keep him there for the rest of the season.

If I wrote about Matt Adams everyday, I’d probably double our traffic here. Despite the internet wrangling and discussion, Matt Adams just continues to hit. And hit. And hit. That’s what he does. But he does so in a rather perplexing way. He doesn’t walk much (BB% < 8), swings at a ton of pitches but makes contact consistently (K% <= 20) and hits for immense power (ISO > .200). That’s an unusual skillset.

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With the start of short season ball clubs, the Cardinals aren’t necessarily in a hurry to make midseason promotions.  The club hasn’t been shy about moving top performers though including Carlos Martinez’s promotion to Palm Beach that was announced yesterday. Here’s a list of candidates who also look like they’re ready to make the leap to the next level.

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Since someone people believe that Matt Adams is in the same robot doghouse as Chuckie Fick, here’s some fun comparisons with Adams’ power output this year.

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I spent a weekend in Springfield taking in some local company and a pair of games: one on Saturday and one on Sunday.  There are three position players on the Springfield team (Matt Adams, Ryan Jackson and Tommy Pham) that I paid special attention to and I had the chance to get a look at Nick Additon and Kevin Thomas as starters.

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There’s been a lot of discussion in the comments lately about what Matt Adams ceiling is or what a first baseman in the majors looks like. I thought I’d provide a spectrum of outcomes for the major league level to show what kind of offense and defense is required to be an average (2 WAR) player.

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The Cardinals prospect, slugging first baseman, Matt Adams has slugged over .520 every stop in 3 years in the Cardinals system.  Perhaps, not coincidentally, he skipped the bat-sapping effects of Palm Beach and the Florida State League, starting in Springfield this year after ending last season injured in Quad Cities.

His adjustment to Springfield has had only a small effect on his numbers as he is striking out more so far this young season and walking less compared to his career averages.  He has gone from 2/1 K/BB to 4/1.  However, more strikeouts and less walks haven’t hurt his overall numbers.  Adams wRC+ (which AZ explained last week is Fangraphs stat that is park and league adjusted wOBA) is still 121 where 100 is average.  So, Adams is still hitting, including his first career triple this season.

Looking at his batted ball rates, it is not much of a mirage at all.  Adams is hitting 22% line drives and only 2.5% pop-ups.  It is obvious that he is making good contact.  However, with only 22% fly balls and 5 home runs, his shots are leaving the yard at a 15% rate, which is a bit high.  His BABIP is .333 which is probably right about level for the minor leagues.  Adams’ wOBA according to statcorner is .417 and his Adams’ wOBA adjusted for home park is .397 and his park and batted ball adjusted wOBA is .394.  Those numbers make me think that his contact numbers are no fluke this season in AA for the 22 year old.

Looking at his batted ball rates, Adams is even hitting the ball better than last season in Quad Cities in which he had 40 doubles and 21 HRs.  Going forward, Matt Adams is a first baseman or a DH that will find his way to the lineup because of his bat.  It is encouraging that he skipped a level and continued his quality hitting.

The Pujols negotiations are, well, pretty boring. If you are like me, you’re sick of hearing about aimless speculation about what will happen next. So lets speculate less aimlessly, if you will, about the future at first base without Five. We’ve got a few options. One, Matt Adams, may be a little far away, but that could change with an incredibly important, and what I cautiously see as a difficult, year for him in 2011. The other two are Mark Hamilton, and Allen Craig, viable mid-20′s players that could provide what most teams want from the corners — a hitter — one being more practical than the other. Let me explain…

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