Archive for the “Mike Parisi” Category

Hey gang. This is piece one in a series from my co-pilot at PAH9, Steve Sommer. You can also read up on some of Steve’s other work at his old blog at StL Sports Scene.  You can also follow him on twitter @Steve_Sommer.

With the introduction of pitch f/x data at various AFL locations, the prospect geek has at his/her disposal data that can be used to answer questions like

• What does Prospect A’s stuff look like?
• How does Prospect B get by on limited stuff?
• Who does Prospect C resemble?

This post will investigate those, and similar types of questions for Mike Parisi.

Let’s start out with a simple summary table of his stuff and a table of MLB/AFL averages for comparison.

The MLB/AFL table contains physical data (movement and velocity) based on a Harry Pavlidis post at BtB and results data (Whiff and Slgcon) based on AFL data. Whiff is the number of swings and misses divided by the number of swings and Slgcon is TB on balls in play/ball in play. A couple things from the table jump out at me immediately

• Parisi is at or below average in getting swings and misses when compared to his AFL counterparts, but has managed to keep his Slgcon down.
• His fastball is a tick below average.
• He has no pitches that have movement that stands out. Most are right around average.

I’ll tackle the 2nd point first, and then address the 1st and 3rd at the same time. With regards to his fastball being below average in velocity, I’d like to point out that not all 90 mph fastballs are created equal. Take Parisi and Scott Gorgen (the subject of a futute post). Both average a shade over 90 mph, but their distributions of velocities differ as the following chart illustrates

Gorgen never really gets above average, but Parisi can touch 93. Clearly velocity alone doesn’t mean anything, but it is nice to know that Parisi has some in the tank if need be.

Now on to the other two points. Parisi is having some success this AFL season, but all signs point to is not being because of over powering stuff (low whiff, not much movement, etc.). One potential explanation is that he’s following Dave Duncan’s philosophy. Let’s see if the data supports that case.

First a table showing his batted ball profile by pitch

So yes, Parisi is having success with the ground ball, especially with his fastball. His GB rate of 60% is much better than the AFL average for fastballs (~45%). How then, without seemingly great downward movement, is Parisi generating so many GBs? The answer is in the following location chart

When Parisi keeps the ball down, his AFL opposition pounded it into the ground. It seems as though Parisi’s strategy is in line with organizational thought (or at least TLR, DD thought). Keep the ball down, don’t worry about missing bats, and generate ground balls. With that being said, I’d think that Parisi might have a good shot at replacing Brad Thompson in a swingman/mop-up role.

Next up (assuming the FR guys don’t kick me out after this first attempt) is a look at the other starter the Cards sent to the AFL, the aforementioned Scott Gorgen.

Wow. Why didn’t anyone wake me up and tell me the news? MLBAM has PITCHf/x camera systems operational at the Surprise and Peoria parks. This is great news for folks like me who can’t afford to fly out to the desert in order to scout some of the Cardinal players participating int he Arizona Fall League.

Here is a look at Scott Gorgen, “it’s just one inning” caveats apply. This is from the 15th.

A little wackiness on a couple of pitches and the way they were classified, but you get the idea.

A 90 MPH fastball out of the bullpen is not so nice, but we know Gorgen’s meal ticket is his circle change-up. It’s a beauty of an offering, coming in 10 MPH slower than his fastball with all sorts fade and sink. This jives with his scouting report from draft day.

Gorgen’s fastball generally scrapes 90 but sits more comfortably in the 86-88 range with excellent command. His circle changeup is a plus pitch he locates at will, and it has late tumble, making it resemble a split-finger fastball. Gorgen’s breaking ball and body are both short but he competes, is athletic and has shown durability, having surpassed 320 innings already in college. On the down side, he has little projection left.

After seeing this change-up in Pitch F/x, I like Gorgen’s future more than ever before.

EDIT: Pitch FX wonk Steve Sommer emailed me some comparisons to Gorgen based on his pitches. Gorgen’s fastball comps with Doug Brocail, Brian Sanches, Alfredo Aceves and Joe Blanton, among others. His change-up compares with Al Reyes, Duaner Sanchez and Joe Nelson (known for his “vulcan” change). His curve compares with Frank Francisco.

Here’s 26-year old Mike Parisi, who is coming back from Tommy John surgery.

This is from Saturday. Parisi went 4 innings, allowed one run and struck out three while inducing 7 ground-outs. What jumps out immediately that Parisi has added a cutter to his arsenal, I don’t remember reading anywhere he was throwing a cutter before. This is a good thing, adding the cutter is a pitch that has helped a lot of otherwise so-so pitchers. His sinker has decent “tail” (horizontal movement) but not a ton of sink. Meh. Parisi topped out at 93 MPH.

We’ll look at Reifer and Daley in a seperate post.