First and foremost, in the beginning of the short season year, a lot of the top draftees are not even signed yet and a lot of the advanced draftees are still playing in the College World Series or the Super Regionals.  The competition is very watered down early in the year.

Additionally, we have often fallen in the trap (I’m subject to this as well) of falling in love with a prospect from short season ball stats and projectability and then they have not lived up to the numbers they produced in short season ball.  Some quick examples from the last few seasons:

Nick Longmire: 2010 wRC+(Batavia) = 144 / 2011 wRC+ (so far) = 82

Longmire also hit only 1 of his 9 HRs after August 5th in 2010.

Niko Vasquez: 2008 wRC+ (Johnson City) = 149 / his best season since – 2010 wRC+ (between two levels) = ~120

Vasquez never had another year with above average wRC+.

Robert Stock: 2009 wRC+ (Johnson City) = 153 / 2010 wRC+ = 64 and 2011 wRC+ in Quad Cities (repeating the level) = 51.

I know I’m cherry-picking some stats, but the point is there.  Stats from rookie-level leagues mean very little in the grand scheme of things.  However, by all means get excited, but think about the history when getting excited about these players because what happens in rookie ball does not always translate to full season ball.

In a corresponding move, Niko Vasquez was moved from Springfield down to Palm Beach per Kary Booher of the Springfield News-Leader. Vasquez has a wRC+ of 85 this season after two seasons in a row of over 100 in Quad Cities and Palm Beach.

What do you think? Discuss below.

After a terrible 2009, he bounced back for a quality 2010 in Palm Beach and Quad Cities, but his 2011 season so far in Springfield is looking more like 2009 than 2010 after 93 plate appearances.  Vasquez is hitting a lot of ground balls – a 56.7% clip, which contributes to his very low BABIP of .259.  So far he is still striking out a lot as he usually does, but his walks are down slightly.  That all being said a slash line of 205/280/349 is not going to get him anywhere fast, especially since he is only playing 3rd base at this point.  wRC+ has him at 58 at this point.

In the late summer of 2008, Vasquez gave us something to be excited about and we are still looking for his name again and again, trying to recapture that magic.  It is still WAY early in 2011, but we haven’t seen the Vasquez we are looking for playing in the hitters friendly AA Texas League.

It’s that time of year again, and BA has started their top twenties for each league. No Cardinals made the GCL’s list and only Niko Vasquez made the Appy, coming in at # 13. Despite Niko’s impressive stats (which are probably better than any other ranked position player), BA isn’t ga-ga for Vasquez. Unfortunately it’s subscriber content only, but the gist is the scouts they talked to aren’t impressed by his average bat speed, lack of plate discipline, power potential, speed. They note that he is more suited for 2nd or 3rd base and peg him as more of an offense first utility infielder. Ouch.

Whoever the scouts BA are talking to, their reports certainly don’t match those we’ve seen of Keith Law and Alex Eisenberg. Most I’ve seen expect 15-20 homers and for him to be a starter. I’m not sure what to believe at this point…

From the ensuing chat we find Matt Eddy is not too high on Deryk Hooker, either. Underwhelming secondary stuff, throws across his body, upside is middle relief. Double ouch.

Vasquez turns his hips on a firm front leg, which helps him generate power from his swing. One slight concern–and it may be from these particular swings the video provided–was how he would make contact a little too far out in front. This isn’t a case of a player looking to achieve extension because he’s not slapping/throwing his hands at the ball. It’s more a case of Vasquez starting his swing a little earlier than he needs to. He needs to wait on the pitch a little longer and give himself more time to recognize the pitch type and location.

Lastly, Vasquez has the swing plane to generate a sufficient number of fly balls. The more fly balls one hits, the more likely that hitter will hit for power. In the clips provided, Vasquez was able to get the ball on the sweet part of the bat, which gave the appearance of the ball “jumping” off his bat.

Kevin Goldstein takes a look at NL Players who took great leaps forward and was most impressed with Daryl Jones’ progress out of any player in the Cardinal system. Jess Todd was his runner up.

The latest in the As the Colby Turns drama, Joe Strauss recently chatted with fans Wednesday and said he sees value in promoting Rasmus if he is healthy. Mo says he’s not been cleared to play. After touting Rasmus, there was this exchange:

mike:… Just how big is Rasmus’ doghouse?
Joe Strauss: A double wide with a room addition planned upstairs.

Is this from his dad’s remarks? Did he act like he was entitled to a roster spot in the spring? I don’t know, but I cannot handle another young player/La Russa feud. There’s just too much talent to waste over ridiculous pettiness.

Batavia 4, Jamestown 3

• Jermaine Curtis hit a go-ahead two-run homer in the 9th. He went 2-5 with a strikeout overall.
• Edwin Gomez went 3-3 with a HR, a walk and 2 RBI.
• Charles Cutler went 2-4. He’s hitting .467 in postseason play.
• Scott Gorgen did his job, throwing six shutout innings. He allowed six hits, two walks and struck out four. He did a good job of keeping the ball on the ground, inducing ten ground-outs.
• Ramon Delgado fouled things up, allowing three earned run over 2.1 innings.
• George Brown and Jason Buursma recorded the last two outs.
• Big win on the road, the Muckdogs go up 1-0 in the NYPL championship.

Cardinal70 recently asked me to participate in the latest “United Cardinal Blogger” collaboration, a project that I could not say no to. The project: Name your Top 7 Prospects, as inspired by our esteemed beat writer Mr. Derrick Goold. The regular minor league season just finished and it seems like it wasn’t long ago we were talking draft, and here we are already ranking players. Time flies.

NOTE: This is NOT our official list that we will be rolling out later. This is more or less my off the cuff rankings as things stand at the moment, and it’s still pretty fluid right now.

1. Colby Rasmus – Rough season or not, Colby’s tools have not gone anywhere. As rough as his start was, Colby finally started looking like the Razzle of old when he hit .333/.441/.535 for the month of June and was named to the Olympic national team, only to miss Beijing due to a sprained right knee. It was a rough season, but Colby still is a monstrous talent. As excited as I am about his offense, I am also pretty darn excited about his defense.

2. Brett Wallace – I’m getting about as sick about hearing about his defense (or lack thereof) as I am hearing the television talking heads gab about Sarah Palin. When you project to hit .300/.400/.520+ at the major league level, you can afford to be a minus ten at the hot corner. He is a lot more athletic than his pear shape dictates, and as I said, the fact that he can rake causes me to overlook the defensive liabilities.

3. Chris Perez -He’s had a few hiccups this year, but that’s not completely unexpected. Should continue to be a solid MLB closer…er, Duke of the Ninth.

4. Daryl Jones – If Jones played on an East Coast team, would prospect watchers be more excited about him? Think about how nuts people went over Austin Jackson last year when he turned his tantalizing tools into game usable skills. I’m not saying their breakouts are perfectly comparable, as Jones played mostly at the High A level, but Jones carried over his success in Double A. Hit a cumulative .316/.407/.483 line with 23 steals and profiles as a 20-20 outfielder in the majors.

5. Bryan Anderson – Young catchers can tire, and that is what I think happened to Anderson. He hit .388/.412/.525 in AA and was promoted in late April to Triple A. Before the all-star break in Memphis he hit .320/.396/.433; the second half: .212/.317/.282. Hopefully he grows in stamina and stops the trend of having second half swoons. What catches my eye is how Anderson considerably improved his defense. In 2006 he allowed 17 passed balls, in ’07 he allowed 15, this past season only ten.  He also caught 37.6% of would be basestealers, up from 26.8% last season. Matheny factor?

And here is where it gets dicey, at least for me, anyway. Garcia would have been my number five had it not been for him needing Tommy John. Now I’m not sure where to put him, being he will be of no use to the club until 2010.

6. Jason Motte – All I have seen so far is a pretty intimidating force on the mound, and from what little I’ve seen, his secondary stuff is not as bad as advertised, although I did read somewhere hearing that he had been developing a hard slider/cutter pitch. Secondary stuff or no, the man throws freakishly hard. He and Perez look to be a pretty nice 1-2 punch in the back of the bullpen, and it’s hard for me not to root for a guy who not long ago was struggling to hit as a catcher.

7. Niko Vasquez – It is interesting to see Vasquez leap over Kozma despite being picked in the third round and Kozma in the first last year. I sort of question myself putting Vasquez over Kozma here. Vasquez had a better pro debut than Kozma; for that matter he had a better pro debut than a lot of players drafted much higher than himself. I guess when I boil it all down, if you would ask me to take the less athletic SS with the power bat or the solid athlete with the ability to handle the bat but not hit for much power, I’d be a more apt to take the slugger.

Near misses: Todd, Kozma, Garcia. Todd is about as a near of a miss as I can think of given his great season.

Head on over to some of the other Cardinal blogs to read and discuss their rankings:

• Viva El Birdos
• Rockin’ the Red
• C70 at the Bat
• Pitchers Hit Eighth
• The Redbird Blog
• Cardinals GM

Be sure to tune into Bird Land later for his take on the project.

“You have your prospects. And it’s good to publicize how good they are. But you want to be realistic with what you have. We’ve seen a lot of players; we’ve seen some pitchers. But you have to ask yourself, is there an impact guy within your system, like an Albert (Pujols)? If (Adam) Wainwright was from our system, is there a guy like him?” La Russa said. “We’re going to need some impact. Is that there, or is there someone who fits the next category — legitimate help?”

I thought Tony wanted to manage a team that consisted of young, hungry players? Statements like these make me think if TLR were the GM, he would empty the farm system. While there are several players that look to be impact players- Jones, Wallace, Colby- none of them are going to make a huge impact when he wants it most: the final year of his contract. We know who will win the battle between player development and the “win now” group from what happened last year w/ Walt. We know who has ownership in their corner.

Draft Info recently rapped with Keith Law:

Which non first round pick do you think will have the most success?

Ryan Westmoreland (Boston), Tim Melville (KC), or Nico Vasquez (STL). The first two were first-rounders who fell because of monetary demands. Vasquez fell because he missed a month on academic suspension, and maybe because too many people still think a shortstop has to be a plus runner.

Derrick Goold recently had Nico/Niko? in his top five. That’s pretty high praise.

Law also had a blurb on the disappointing (and AWOL?) Mark Hamilton.

I could not have seen Mark Hamilton any better on the Cape – he might have been 12-for-10 when I saw him as a freshman at Falmouth. Good swing, big raw power that showed up in games, plenty of contact, solid at first base. What gets me is that he’s hit for no power in pro ball. Maybe it’s the result of the wrist injury he suffered his junior year … or maybe he just isn’t half as good as I thought.

Palm Beach 0, Daytona 6

• That will do it for Palm Beach, their season is over.
• Tyler Henley went 2-4.
• Ateo Folli and Oliver Marmol both doubled. Folli had some follies in the field with two errors. Ah, I kill me.
• Mark Diapoules allowed four earned runs on seven hits and two walks over five innings.
• Jose Mateo a couple of earned runs on three hits over two innings.
• The Casey Mulligan Experience struck out one in his perfect inning of work.
• Daytona’s logo has to be the dorkiest in all the minors.

Batavia 10, State College 2

• Unless I’m mistaken, Batavia and Jamestown are tied for first with one game left of the regular season.
• Chris Swauger went 2-3 with a homer and 4 RBI.
• Christian Rosa went 2-3 with a triple and a walk.
• Frederick Parejo went 2-4. I like him as a sleeper going into next year.
• Adam Veres induced ten ground outs and struck out five over six innings. He walked three and allowed five hits.
• Ramon Delgado struck out two in two innings with one hit allowed.
• Adam Reifer walked a batter, allowed a hit and an unearned run. He struck out two.

Yunier Castillo and Ryde Rodriguez were moved up from the GCL team to Johnson City. Derrick Goold said Castillo is “one to watch”, as scouts and coaches were raving about him during our esteemed beat writer’s last trip to Jupiter.

Unlike the keystone, however, the minor league system currently has talent at the position sprinkled throughout the levels. We’ve got a minor league trade acquisition playing at a high level in AAA (and now the Olympics), a first round draftee that has regained some luster in AA (and hopefully will continue to do so at AAA), a recent first round draftee that has been proving that he deserved such a high pick in A ball, and a 2008 high school draftee that has been tearing up rookie ball. We’ll take a look at them all after the jump.

Brian Barden – Barden was an astute waiver wire pickup by the Cardinals during the 2007 season. He had always hit well as he came up through the Diamondbacks organization (except, actually for the 2007 season), but 2007 would have been his third full season at AAA and Arizona needed a spot on their 40 man roster (I could be wrong, but I think it was so that they could call up Justin Upton). For Arizona, Barden was mostly a third baseman, but once he came to the Cardinals he mainly played shortstop (although he did play all over) and this season at Memphis 91 of his 98 games played have been at shortstop. He has hit well this season, putting up a .293/.357/.434 line and was selected to play for the U.S. in the Olympics. I am not sold on Barden as an everyday shortstop in the major leagues, but he should see some time as a utility player with a little sock off the bench.

Tyler Greene – Greene was a Cardinals first round pick in the 2005 draft (taken two spots after Colby Rasmus). He has been very inconsistent in his minor league career, with only one really good stop along the way (223 at bats at Quad Cities in 2006). Otherwise he has been disappointing. He has shown some glimmers of the talent that led to him being picked in the first round, such as the .327/.364/.564 line he put up in July for Springfield. With Barden off at the Olympics, Greene has been called up to AAA, which I think is a good thing. He’s at that point in his career where he needs to be challenged at the highest level of the minor leagues to prove that he still deserves to be thought of as a prospect.

D’Angelo Jimenez – No, I’m just kidding, we aren’t really going to talk about him.

Casey Rowlett – I talked about Rowlett when we covered the second basemen. He isn’t really a prospect, but he is valuable to the organization because he can be shuffled around positions and levels to cover where there is a need on the infield.

Jose Martinez – He was also more prominently mentioned in the coverage of second basemen, but since Greene has been promoted to Memphis, Martinez has been the everyday shortstop at Springfield (we will see if that changes, though, since Donovan Solano has been promoted to Springfield from Palm Beach). I’m not any more of a fan of his at short than I was at second base. He just doesn’t take enough walks – and with the disappearance of his power this season (.090 ISO), he hasn’t really offered much in the way of offense.

Donovan Solano – Solano is a twenty year old that has spent this whole season at Palm Beach and has done well. His line on the year is .286/.346/.351. It would be nice to see a little more in the way of power, but the .351 mark is actually the highest of his career. Considering that he is still pretty young for the level and is holding his own, I feel pretty good about his performance at this point. He was just promoted to Springfield, which might be a little aggressive for a twenty-year-old that wasn’t exactly dominating at Palm Beach. With Kozma pressuring from below and Martinez/Greene/Barden/Ryan all holding steady above him, it will be interesting to see how the Cardinals handle his progress.

Oliver Marmol – Marmol is a weak hitting, slick fielding twenty-two year old that has bounced between Quad Cities and Palm Beach this year. His ceiling is as a utility infielder, but he hasn’t shown any power at all or any offensive skills, for that matter, that will allow him to be even a utility guy much higher in the organization than he already is.

Pete Kozma – The criticisms of the Cardinal’s pick of Kozma in the 2007 draft were almost unanimous. Pete is one of those guys that does everything well, but nothing exceptionally. He is a solid fielding shortstop that hits for good average, gets on base at a good clip and hits for occassional power. His line this year at Quad Cities is .285/.362/.398. He will almost certainly never be an MVP candidate, but if he progresses through the system and remains above average in every facet of the game, he will be a very valuable major league player. He was recently promoted to Palm Beach as a reward for his solid play this year.

Domnit Bolivar – Bolivar is only nineteen and he’s been moved all over the infield in stops at Johnson City, Batavia and Quad Cities over the last two years. He hasn’t shown much with the bat at this point, but he’s also never really been given a chance to settle at one spot. It seems likely that he is being groomed for a utitility role unless he really breaks out with the bat (think Marmol minus three years).

Colt Sedbrook – Colt is more of a second baseman, but he has played 14 games at short this year, so he deserves mention. Having played four years of college makes him a bit old for his level (Batavia), but I like him quite a bit (as a second baseman, though).

Jose Garcia – Garcia is another in the mold of Marmol and Bolivar: he’s young (20 years old), has played all over the infield, and hasn’t shown much with the bat yet.

Nico Vasquez – Nico has been everything we hoped for as a draft pick and then some. Through 159 at bats his line is .321/.425/.478. The knock on him on draft day was that he has limited foot speed, but he has stolen five bases in seven attempts already, which is better than I would have guessed (although the defensive abilities of catchers at this level are wildly erratic). He is only nineteen years old and looks ready to prove himself at the next level. I would think that he would start 2009 at Quad Cities. Second base could be his position in the long run, especially if Kozma continues to advance, but that is a change that can be put off until it becomes necessary.

Guillermo Toribio – I like to call him Gino, even though that implies a completely different ethnicity and really doesn’t make sense. Gino seems to be another of the young, pliable, weak hitting group of infielders in the lower minor leagues for the Cardinals. I suppose there are worse strategies than grabbing a quantity of these guys and hoping that one or two improve enough with the stick to become useful.