Archive for the “shelby miller” Category

(azru: I asked Steve Sommer if he would toss together the limited pitch f/x data from the Futures Game for us.  Minuscule sample size alert as Steve will note so don’t make any life decisions from this. You can find more of Steve’s work at various joints including ESPN, Beyond the Box Score and Play A Hard Nine. Thanks, Steve.)

One of the best aspects of the Futures Game is that we get some Pitch F/X data on pitchers that we otherwise would not have any data on. This is especially useful for those of us that will not get to see these guys pitch until they reach MLB. Clearly we will be doing some analysis and making some observations with extremely small samples, but it is still useful to get a feel for each pitcher’s fastballs if nothing else.

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Just a quick note: Scott Gorgen left the Springfield Game today in the 4th inning with elbow pain.

Shelby Miller ALERT!

On to the DFR!
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I won’t try to hold you in suspense till the offseason.  Shelby Miller will be the #1 prospect here and in every major publication you read (BA, BP, Law, etc).  There’s several contenders but they’re all flawed or just as unknown.

1. Jaime Garcia – The upside isn’t quite what you want in a #1 and despite his sterling performance to date, there will be questions about his health for the next several years now.
2. Daryl Jones – Injuries have plagued him all season leading to questions surrounding his overall talent level and power projection.
3. Wagner Mateo – The one player who can match Shelby on upside is the one player we know even less about.
4. Island of Misfit Toys – Daniel Descalso, Eduardo Sanchez, Lance Lynn, Bryan Anderson . . . they all suffer from either Garcia or Jones syndrome above.  It’s still a nice collection of mid-level prospects but nothing here to challenge for the #1 spot.

So expect Miller to take over the #1 ranking.  Regardless of what he’s ranked or what deragatory remarks that incites from the STL P-D scribes about laying a new egg, the real question is what the Cardinals have just signed in Shelby Miller.

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I hope none of the other mods mind, but I thought I would throw up this post to congregate the Shelby Miller signings announcements, rumors, prices, links etc.

Here’s the tip of the iceberg from Jonathan Mayo:

Source tells me Shelby Miller has indeed agreed to terms with Cards.  No. 19 pick in #mlbdraft will indeed get $2.9 mil as I guestimated.

UPDATE It’s official, if it wasn’t already:

Per BA

The Cardinals have signed first-round pick Shelby Miller for $2,875,000. His bonus is the highest in the first round this year, the second-highest for a drafted player in club history and well over MLB’s $1,386,000 recommendation for the No. 19 slot.

From BJ Rains on twitter:

Shelby Miller is on his way to St. Louis tonight for a physical tomorrow morning….Mozeliak ‘optimistic’ that a deal will get done.

I don’t have inside info to share but, personally, I’m less concerned about this signing than I have been about any in recent memory.  I’d be very surprised if this doesn’t happen.

Update by Erik, 8/17/09, 10:15am. Jonathan Mayo on Twitter.

Hearing reports on Shelby Miller and Cards deal are accurate, but not quite for the $3.25 mil being reported. My guess: $2.9 mil.

This deal is 99.99% likely of getting done, I’d think. Pretty significant stuff, if the Cardinals do end up signing two teenagers for $6M.

Our friend Alex Eisenberg takes an up close look at Shelby Miller.

No major worries about mechanics, and he says Miller has “undeniable upside”. He does say there’s no signability issues that he knows of, but we that have the P-D in our RSS reader and obsess over this team know that’s not true, although it does sound like Miller really wants to sign and I think he’ll eventually come in at $2-3 rather than the advertised $4M. We’ll see what his agents do.

Before I jump into things, I’d like to say thank you to the generous donors who gave towards the cost to cover our hosting costs. We’re a little over 50% 65% towards our $100 goal. If you are interested in making a donation, just comment and I’ll send you an email, or click on the donate button on the right sidebar. Hosting is up by early July. Normally it would be something I’d take care of myself, but I have some baby expenses coming up and recently paid about $600 fixing my car. /sob story

Recapping:

• Cardinals pull off a shocker and pick RHP Shelby Miller 19th overall. I’m still floored by this, but perhaps I shouldn’t, with rumors of interest in Matt Purke, who ended up being drafted by Texas. First, the pluses – He was the best player left available to draft. His ceiling is higher than any arm currently in the system. He has one of the best fastballs of any prep pitcher, if not the best. And it’s not just about velocity, but about life. Every pundit is very high on this pitcher. Good curveball. Mechanically sound. Scouting reports say he has good makeup. The bad – Normal high school pitcher risk, hefty price tag, it’s not certain they will sign him, inconsistent command, secondary offerings.  There’s already some posturing from Luhnow, and some eagerness shown by the young right-hander to sign. I seem to remember Kyle Russell saying positive things a few years ago, and we know how that turned out. Him not signing will ignite some anger towards ownership, but to me, it wouldn’t be the end of the world. They can simply reallocate that money in Latin America, like towards highly regarded OF Wagner Mateo. (I think I’d rather have Miller) This is a bold, gutsy move by Luhnow and I think it gives him some credibility to a fan base that has accused him in the past of taking high-floor, low-upside pitchers in the 1st round. I do hope they sign him. I like his attitude so far, we’ll see what happens. From the Commish: “Definitely, I’m going to sign a contract with the St. Louis Cardinals. Ultimately, my goal is to play with the St. Louis Cardinals as soon as I possibly can.”
• Cardinals take C/RHP Robert Stock, USC, 67th overall. Didn’t see this coming either. We’ve been hearing about Stock since he won BA’s Youth Player of the Year award, an honor he took home as a 15 year old. Back then he was flashing brilliance on the hill and behind the plate. Scouts were split on him then, and are split on him now, although it’s hard not to like him as a pitcher more given his underwhelming performance offensively, and the fact that he was the ace of USC’s staff, showing three average to above average pitches — fastball, slider, changeup. It sounds like the Cardinals will give him a try at catcher first.  Stock graduated early so he could attend college, and is just 19 years old. He was rated the 5th best prospect in the Cape in 2007 as the youngest player to ever play in the league. Stock has plenty of tools and time to put it altogether. I’m not surprised to see him struggle at USC at such a young age. There’s some high-reward here, and his ability to pitch is a safety net.
• Joe Kelly was drafted out of UC Riverside 97th overall. Kelly hales from the same school that gave us Adam Reifer and is pretty similar. He profiles as closer, he brings the heat with sink, and throws a good slider. The results weren’t really there this year, but he has some upside. The Cardinals already have a several of these type of pitchers like this in their system in Reifer, Samuel, Sanchez. Sure, some of those guys have struggled, but I still say for the 3rd round, this isn’t a bad pick at all.

Overall, this strikes me as a pretty different draft then usual. The criticism that there’s not enough upside in the system gets squelched by signing these guys, at least I would think so, based on what I know of these players now.  Day 2 could get interesting and will tell us if the Cards are going to continue down this path. We’ve heard rumors of Brian Goodwin in the past, and he’s still on the board. There’s also Max Stassi, who I have no idea how he is still on the board. He could be a good backup plan should negotiations with Miller fall apart.

Here’s a full list of some of the top talent remaining. If they start things off with AJ Morris or Kent Matthes, it’ll be back to the normal script. Not saying that is bad, it is that script that has given us some interesting prospects, like Tyler Henley or Steve Hill, for example. I think OF Angelo Songco could be a nifty pick-up, I really like his power bat. LHP Chris Dwyer could be better than some of the other touted lefties taken earlier, but as a draft-eligible sophomore he could be a tough sign. Should be interesting.

We’ll be back at 11, liveblogging. Looking forward to it.

Goold tweets:

The complete quote from Luhnow re: signing Miller: “It’s no slam dunk that we are going to sign him quickly or sign him at all.”

Get ready for some drama, people. It’s a dice roll, especially with no sandwich pick. At worst, they pick again 20th overall, although I’m not quite sure they can get someone with Miller’s upside 20th next year. We’ll see what happens.

Whoa! I didn’t see this coming. Put down your pitchforks. No need to hunt down DeWallet. Shelby Miller is your 1st round pick Cardinal fans. You wanted upside, well here you go. I’m shocked. Cardinals get a top top caliber pick at 19. He’s said to be seeking $4M+, so we’ll see how this plays out.

Some scouting grades on Miller: 60 fastball, 65 future, 60 future grade on curveball.

Law’s scouting report on Miller:

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