We will look at some more stats next week when the sample sizes get a little larger, but a few days ago the AP wrote a great article on Tyler Henley and his wife.  They basically sound like the perfect couple, who have moved 9 times to follow the baseball dream.  It’s a not often covered angle of the minor league players we cover so diligently.  These are basically kids who have lives and concerns and worries outside of the baseball diamond.  Check out the full article here and the rest after the jump.

Tyler’s salary has ranged from $1,100 a month while in Batavia, to roughly $2,100 in Memphis.

A signing bonus of $150,000 when Tyler was drafted has been put away and untouched except to buy Blair’s wedding ring.

“I call it reverse poor,” says Blair, a former all-conference tennis player at Rice. “We have money in the bank, but we don’t spend it because we don’t know how much longer it will have to last.

This is fantastic fiscal responsibility by the Henleys first and foremost, so kudos to them.  Secondly, these guys do not get paid very much on a week to week basis with the exception of the high picks.

You can also sense their disappointment with his demotion to Springfield this season, especially because it meant another move back to Springfield.

[Henley] rose to Triple-A in Memphis and got demoted to Double-A in Springfield, Mo.

Tyler learned about the move while he was on the road and passed it along to Blair in a text message: “Bad news, we’re going to Springfield.”

And just like that, she had to pack their life in Memphis and relocate to Springfield for a game the next day.

Additionally on ESPNW.com, Blair Henley herself writes an article about the trials and tribulations about being as she termed it “a baseball wife”.

I know that Tyler Henley is one of AZ’s pet prospects and after reading these articles, it is hard not to root even harder for the guy to reach the major leagues.  However, with the demotion to Springfield, it appears that there are quite a few young outfielders (including left-handers like Henley) ahead of him on the depth chart.

But, I know I’ll be rooting for Tyler to make it to the major leagues.

I don’t think there’s much to read into his 2010 season. Henley began the season in Memphis but was hampered by injuries back to the start of May posting a dismal .257 wOBA. After rehabbing, he was sent to Springfield in June where he played for about three weeks terrorizing pitchers before hitting the shelf again at the end of June.

I saw Henley during the midst of his impressive 2009 campaign in Springfield:

Love the swing.  Nice smooth stroke that will have gap power and 10 HRs a year.  He’s got above average speed on the bases and looks very good in the outfield.  I wish he’d play a little shallower in RF to start but for the most part his athleticism makes up for it.  Arm would play in right but I think it’s a better fit for centerfield. [...] Looks like a solid outfielder on a big league team with an outside chance to be an everyday player.  Not a world beater but a good prospect.

Henley would hit for a .303/.367/.482 line in Springfield managing a .383 wOBA. Even correcting for park and batted ball rates, Henley still had a .361 wOBA. Relative to the .329 league average, that would have made Henley worth two wins relative to the average hitter over the course of a 600-700PA season.  It was an impressive season for Henley and one that probably put him just behind the likes of Allen Craig, Jon Jay and Joe Mather in outfield depth.

The injury of 2010 has allowed a few players to make the jump past Tyler, namely Adron Chambers and Jim Rapoport.  I’ve long been impressed with Henley (much more so than Rapoport) but Chambers slipping ahead could be another lefty bat of comparable skillsets for competition. Great for the Cardinals; not so great for Tyler.  The Memphis outfield continues to look crowded in 2011 with names like Chambers, Rapoport, Andrew Brown, Aaron Luna and Tommy Pham all potentially in the mix for a spot there.  Daryl Jones is another name that conceivably could get the bump up to AAA.  I’d expect Henley to be assigned to Memphis if for no other reason than he’ll be 26 in June of next year.

As a fun look back, here is erik’s 2009 Q & A with Tyler Henley.

It’s certainly too early to think that the 2010 body of work at Memphis is predictive of anything but the peripherals are still descriptive of the issues Henley is having at the plate.  With a pre-2010 ISO career rate of ~.165, Henley has seen a precipitous decline in power this season.  Henley had yet to hit a HR in over 100 PAs and managed just a measly .090 ISO.  Henley’s power ceiling is not particularly high. He hit 13 HRs in 2009 with 31 doubles at Springfield. That’s likely the upper limit as he was hitting in a league friendly to the batter and his frame just doesn’t lend itself to a significant power stroke. To project Henley for anything significantly beyond a .160 ISO in the majors seems overly optimistic.

The power isn’t the only problem and is just a small part of Henley’s overall downtick this season. His approach at the plate has taken a beating.  The walk rate is down and the strikeouts are up nearly 50%. There are slight changes in his batted ball profile but they could simply be noise in the stringing. Henley’s certainly had some bad luck with a line drive rate at 22% and a BABIP of just .257. All things being equal, we’d expect a BABIP in the .320-.340 range for his batted ball profile. The decreased contact rate is far more disturbing though.

Henley’s offensive profile was predicated on having doubles power and putting the ball in play consistently. He was never a prolific walker but he checked that with good speed and not striking out. If Henley is suffering through a small injury, it could go a long way toward explaining the power outage and the strikeouts. That’s not a certainty though. When Henley returns, watch the strikeouts and the power — if they return to career rates quickly, then there’s little to worry about.

Ryan Ludwick was signed to a 1-year contract in January and will be in his last season of club control in 2011. At 5.45M in 2010, he’s likely to be worth his salary. Assuming $4M/WAR, Ludwick would need to produce around 2.2 WAR on the season.* CHONE projected him for a 2.0 WAR season in 2010. He’s now a year removed from the monstrous 5 WAR season he had in 2008.

So what would a 2 WAR season look like for Ludwick? Well, a lot like 2009. He hit for a .336 wOBA (.269/.329/.467) against a league average of .329. Ludwick has continued to be an average fielder in RF and projected that way again in 2010 by CHONE. So Ludwick amassing a .340 wOBA over about 600PAs would get him into the 2 WAR level. That’s not a tall order for him and he certainly has the capacity to produce well beyond that.

But 2011 is a trickier topic. He’ll make more money, likely approaching 9M**, meaning he’ll need to be producing at a higher rate something closer to 3 WAR. If he plays well in 2010 that arbitration salary could be eve higher. Regardless of the specifics of his 2011 contract, the Cardinals are going to be hard pressed to keep Ludwick around because of the financial constraints imposed by 3 big pitching contracts and a pair of mega position player contracts.

So, who in the system has a chance of being that replacement in 2011? Well, the first and possibly best bet are a pair of recent grads residing on the major league roster already. Joe Mather is currently relegated to a backup CF role and it might be to the detriment of the team overall as he represents a nice combination of defense and potential offense. With the need to hold him in reserve for emergency CF duties, the likelihood is that he won’t see consistent or even significant playing time. Mather’s window for creating a Jayson Werth (or even a Ryan Ludwick!) type career for himself has been hampered by recent wrist injuries and, like everyone not named Benjamin Button, he isn’t getting any younger.

Allen Craig, having already seen time in RF in 2010, is the second candidate to consider. I’ve written about him extensively and, perceived organizational indifference towards his defense aside, I like his bat to be the most prolific of the right field candidates for the future.

On the minor’s side, the Cardinals will look for a pair of players to put together strong seasons at Memphis and create viable alternatives to Mather/Craig. Jon Jay, repeating his time in Memphis is the most serious contender. 2008 represented an offensive zenith for Jay as he posted very good numbers in Springfield (.306/.379/.407) over 400+ PAs. Jay’s 2009 tour at Memphis was underwhelming with a .338 OBP but his major calling card would be the completeness of his game in RF. A plus defender in the outfield, his minor league numbers have been nothing short of fantastic. He looks to be worth upwards of a full win in the field so the offensive threshold for being a productive player is much lower for Jay. Simply being league average offensively makes him a better than average player.

More of a long shot but one of my favorite players in the system right now is Tyler Henley. More along the lines of Jay than Craig, Henley is an above average fielder (only slightly by the metrics but I like him as +5 in a corner) and an good hitter who has yet to misstep in the minors. Henley’s options and limited time in the minors make his ascension somewhat less likely as he’s not even on the 40-man roster yet. It’s hard to completely discount Henley but he faces the largest obstacles on the list.

There’s a handful of players that aren’t real options in Memphis. Amaury Cazana Marti (age), Shane Robinson (lack of offense) and Mark Shorey (defense) are not real options in RF. In Springfield, Adron Chambers and Daryl Jones are too far removed from the majors to be considered real candidates. It’s not impossible that the Cardinals will retain Ryan Ludwick in 2011. The possibility of saving $8M while only taking a minor downgrade on paper is hard to ignore though. With the amount of committed dollars the Cardinals have in the next few years and the impending re-signing of one Albert Pujols, Ryan Ludwick represents the easiest expensive player for the team to replace.

*This includes the typical 60% discount that player contracts in Arb year 2 represent. Thus, Ludwick needs to produce at a level consumate with a $9M free agent.

** Arb year 3 represents a 80% discount from free agent prices.

16. Tyler Henley
See you in: Springfield
Journey Theme Song: Remember Me
Best Case 2009: Henley continues to play centerfield and stays healthy for a full season.  10HRs, double digit SBs and a .300/.350/.450 line with plus defense.
Worst Case 2009: Things fall apart in a hurry as his lack of power leaves him over matched and turns him into a .250 slap hitter.  Injuries derail his season midway through.

17. Tyler Herron
See you in: Springfield
Journey Theme Song: Don’t Be Down on Me Baby
Best Case 2009: The pinpoint control from 2007 returns with walk rates under 2 BB/9.  The GB% stays steady around average (mid-40%) and the strikeouts hover around 7 K/9.
Worst Case 2009: Undone by his lack of pure stuff, he travels the way of Trey Hearne and fades from the collective Cardinal fan consciousness.

18. Lance Lynn
See you in: Palm Beach
Journey Theme Song: Nothin’ Comes Close
Best Case 2009: Lynn recaptures his velocity from college and the heavy fastball puts hitters on their heels and balls on the ground.
Worst Case 2009: The velocity doesn’t come close to college levels and Lynn is a busted 1st-round pick.

19. Fernando Salas
See you in: Memphis
Journey Theme Song: Never Walk Away
Best Case 2009: Ummm, 2008 again please.  Walking under 2 batters per nine and striking out a ridiculous 12 per 9.  It’s easy to forget Salas since he doesn’t throw as hard as Perez, Motte, Reifer, Samuel or any of the other fireballers we drool over.
Wost Case 2009: 2007.  The gopher-itis gets worse and a return to earth of the strikeout rate makes him fringy middle relief fodder.

20. Adam Ottavino
See you in: Springfield
Journey Theme Song: The Party’s Over
Best Case 2009: Ottavino rebounds with a healthy shoulder and improved command.  140+ innings with an ERA under 4 and a K rate over 8.
Worst Case 2009: The command issues continue to hamper him and his balky shoulder balks once more as he slips off the depth chart and travels the Blake Hawksworth career path.

As many of you know, Tyler Henley was an 8th round pick out of Rice in the 2007 draft. Rice players can be tough signs, but Henley signed for an above slot bonus of $150K and has since made his way onto the FR radar in a major way, ranking as our #16 prospect. For the first half of last season at Palm Beach, Henley hit .313/.370/.531 but broke a finger and landed on the disabled list. When he came off the DL he had a couple of slow months, but he finished the season with a strong .299/.372/.458 line for the month of August.

We like him around these parts for his all around solid skill set as a CF, and for his hard-nosed style of play. Henley was nice enough to take some time to answer some of my questions over email.

This past season you were hitting the ball pretty well, and then broke your finger. Are you fully recovered yet, and how disappointing was it to have your season interrupted like that?

I am fully recovered. As disappointing as it was to have the interruption due to injury, it was just as encouraging to know I am capable of coming back. Through my entire career I have never had a serious injury that kept me out of multiple games. Baseball is all about building confidence and consistency and I think my broken finger actually helped more than it hurt.

Give us a scouting report on yourself as a hitter.

I would say that I am an aggressive hitter. I’m sometimes too aggressive, and that is something that will be worked on to find a balance of aggression and patience. I think one of my strengths is my ability to hit to all fields and one of my weaknesses is my patience and pitch selection.

How would you rate where you are as a center fielder right now?

I would say that my play in the outfield is always improving and that’s about all anyone could ask for. I spent a lot of my time last offseason working on my arm strength and I feel like it really paid off. This offseason I’ve spent a lot of time invested in my strength and speed. We’ll see how it translates into running down fly balls.

What about as a person? Are you more laid-back, or more intense?

I think I have an uncanny ability to relax. Although, my wife will get onto me about getting too intense or competitive during what should be friendly competition. When it comes to any form of competition it is tough for me to take it lightly.

One thing your scouting report at MILB.com says “If Henley were to try and hit for more power, I believe he could. But as a leadoff hitter, he has honed his skills to focus on putting the ball in play to all fields.” Are you ever tempted to alter your approach and start swinging for the fences?

I don’t think I have been tempted to try to hit more homeruns, because I’ve focused on being a good leadoff hitter. I think I will continue to do what has got me where I am until they tell me a change needs to be made.

In your opinion, what are some of the characteristics of a successful leadoff hitter?

I think the biggest asset a leadoff hitter has is his ability to get on base. That is something I struggled with at times last year because I was too aggressive, but something I am planning to work on this year. The other important aspect of a leadoff hitter is his ability to perform on the basepaths. Whether that means stealing bases or taking the extra base when the opportunity arises.

You’ve been compared to Lenny Dykstra by more than a few scouts. What does that mean to you?

It’s a huge compliment. Along with being a great baseball player he also played the game full tilt all the time. I would love to be known as someone who not only played the game well but also played it hard and right.

There are a lot of good outfield prospects in the Cardinal system right now-Colby Rasmus, Daryl Jones Jon Jay.. Does that put any extra pressure on you to go out there and perform?

Not really, because I can’t control what those guys do. All I can control is how I play so the only pressure I’ll put on myself will be based on my own goals and expectations.

What do you feel you gained from playing three years at the Rice program?

I think I gained a lot of hands on coaching in all aspects of the game. Hands on coaching was extremely important for me because I had not played a whole bunch of baseball during my high school summers. While most baseball players were playing baseball I was getting ready for the football season. Perhaps even more important than the baseball side of my time at Rice I gained a lot of real life knowledge and experience that is invaluable for my baseball career and relationships.

What is it about Rice recruiting football players to play baseball? You and teammate Aaron Luna both were very successful running backs back in your high school days back in Texas.

I know the Rice coaches like to have former football players on their baseball team because they like guys with a football mentality. They like the mental and physical toughness that typically comes with a former football player.

While we’re on football, just for fun, give me your prediction:  Who wins the Super Bowl?

It’s a good thing I’m not a gambling man because I would have picked the Eagles and the Ravens to be playing in this game. And since I did such a poor job of predicting the conference championships I’m hesitant to make any guess on the Super Bowl, but I will say that I will be pulling for the Cardinals. I think it would make a great story if they were able to pull it out and they also have a pretty cool mascot.