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Azruavatar: A few years ago, we saw Allen Craig start to make the transition in the minors from third baseman to outfielder. It appears that Matt Carpenter may be on the brink of a similar transition. Skip Schumaker made a positional transition in the majors from the outfield to second base. Without commenting on a specific player, under what circumstances does the club try to broach a conversation like this with a minor leaguer?

John Vuch: We always encourage versatility among our minor league players, simply because we don’t always know where the next opening at the Major League level is going to occur. If there’s an injury at the major league level, if a minor league player has had some experience at that position, he’d certainly get more consideration for a callup than somebody who had never played the position. Obviously, it’s not going to be a daily game of musical chairs at the minor league level, as we still want players to have a primary position, but especially as players get further up the ladder, it makes sense for them to at least get some exposure at other positions they could potentially be asked to play at the major league level. A good example of that is somebody like Ryan Jackson, who played in a utility role in the Arizona Fall League. We certainly still consider him a shortstop, and somebody who will play the bulk of his games at that position. But the experience of playing some 2nd base and 3rd base in Arizona can only help him in the future if a major league utility role opened up before a shortstop opportunity. So that’s how we portray it to the player – it’s usually not that we don’t like him at a given position, just that it opens up more avenues for him to get to the major leagues if he at least has the ability to play multiple positions.

AZ: Similarly, we’ve seen pitchers in both the minors and majors move between the bullpen and the rotation. I want to turn that previous question around a bit though. Are there circumstances or qualities that would lead the organization to be disinclined to try a hypothetically struggling starter as a reliever? Just to show how much a farm geek I am, I’m thinking back to Eric Haberer who was a lefty starter that was released after 2007 despite the system being very light on left handed relievers.

JV: I think for relievers, there is typically less emphasis on the ability to throw a changeup, and more emphasis on velocity and breaking pitch. In other words, repertoire for relievers is less important, but the quality of the few pitches they can throw becomes more important. That’s magnified for lefties – the first thing you look for with turning a lefty starter into a lefty reliever is whether he has a killer breaking pitch to use for those lefty/lefty matchups. While there’s always exceptions, if he’s a fastball/changeup kind of guy, he’s more likely going to sink or swim as a starting pitcher.

AZ: There was a renewed focus, or at least public comments from the front office, in recent seasons to get back to fundamentals at every level of the organization. Do you feel like the organization has been successful in that effort and what is your vision for the farm system in 2012?

JV: After the changes to our Player Development department following the 2010 season, fundamentals became one of the first things that we wanted to improve. It’s not a glamorous aspect of the game, and it may not always be exciting to watch bunt plays, cutoffs and relays, and other fundamentals, but that is something that defined the Cardinals for years when George Kissell was coordinating things for our minor leaguers. In this era, we realize that we’re never going to have the highest payroll club, and there will occasionally be times where other teams have more pure “talent” than we do, so it’s vital that we maximize our talent and avoid making fundamental mistakes.

Part of that goal was to ensure that we were doing things in a consistent fashion from top to bottom throughout the organization, so that as a player went from club to club, he wouldn’t have to relearn fundamentals for any individual manager. Obviously, that starts with the understanding how the major league club does things and then implementing that program throughout the system.

When I moved into this role, Tony LaRussa and his coaching staff were incredibly generous with their time, and spent many hours with me and our coaches as we put together an organizational instructional manual, which documented how everything was to be done from St. Louis, all the way down to our Dominican program. That really set the tone for the 2011 season from the minor league perspective and I think we went a long way towards achieving our goals in that area.

With Mike Matheny coming on board, one of the first things we did was have him review the existing manual and let us know the areas where he’d like to do things differently. He’s been tremendous in terms of communicating his vision for how he sees the majors and minors working together. Since Mike had previously spent many years in the organization and had spent time the last few years working with our minor league catchers, he didn’t have sweeping changes, but we’ve updated our manual to reflect the way he wants things taught, and looking forward to continuing to improve fundamentally as an organization.

Over the years, quality fundamental play has been the Cardinals identity and it’s our job to make sure we uphold that legacy.

AZ: Any prospects in the system that you think the public should be paying more attention to than they are now?

JV: I think with the level of coverage devoted to the minor leagues through websites, blogs, newspapers and magazines, some players who might have gone relatively unnoticed in the past are now more well-known. I’m always reluctant to get too specific about how we view individual players for several reasons – some competitive, some motivational – but we’ve got quite a few guys that I would at least consider “chance” prospects. Some of them are players with “tools” that haven’t yet had their performance match their athletic ability, while others are guys that have had success beyond what would be expected from “limited” tools that we’ll continue to give chances to show us that their success is legitimate. We’re excited to see which guys make big steps forward in 2012, but by this time next year, I’d be surprised if we didn’t have a couple names pop up on people’s lists that aren’t currently there.

AZ: Do you think the increased coverage (be it traditional media outlets or more contemporary ones) is something that is beneficial for the minor league players or is it an added level of scrutiny that makes adjusting to professional baseball more difficult?

JV: If handled properly, I think there’s generally more positive than negative associated with the increased media coverage. It allows the player to familiarize themselves with what is expected of them from reporters, how to handle being interviewed, and the importance of making themselves as available after poor performances as they are after good outings and to gain that experience on a much smaller stage than they will encounter when they reach the major leagues. At our early camp last year, we had several of the reporters that cover our major league team spend time with our minor league players in order to give them the perspective from the media, and I think that session was beneficial for both the players and the media. It’s important for the players (and staff) to realize that the media has a job to do, and that there’s a professional obligation to be cooperative with reporters. Interviews, especially those of the postgame variety, are typically very brief, so if a player doesn’t make himself available for comment (particularly after a bad game), it doesn’t take long for a player to get a reputation for not being a stand-up guy. It’s better for the players to learn those lessons while coming through the minor leagues, than to be completely unfamiliar with media protocol while simultaneously trying to adjust to all of the other differences that come with being in the major leagues.

I suppose one danger from the increased coverage can potentially come from players getting an overly inflated opinion of themselves, or thinking they’re already “big leaguers” based on the amount of media attention they receive or their status in various prospect rankings. But ultimately, that’s up to us to make sure we keep our players grounded and focused, and avoid letting the attention be a distraction.

From a front office perspective, the effect of increased minor league media scrutiny should be negligible, as you can’t effectively run a farm system while being overly concerned with how your organization is being portrayed by publications or websites. Obviously, it’s impossible to be unaware of how various publications rank farm systems or prospects, but it’s important to avoid letting 3rd party opinions affect your decision making. Sometimes you’ll see clubs overhype marginal prospects for media purposes, but in the long run I think you jeopardize your credibility by habitually portraying fringy players as major prospects.

AZ: Thanks for your time, John.

azruavatar: There were obviously a lot of changes to the Cardinals this year not only on the field but in the front office. Notably, Jeff Luhnow, who had been heavily involved in both the amateur draft and the minor league system since 2005, left to become the Astros’ general manager. Last offseason you were promoted to the title of ‘Farm Director’. Can you tell us a little more about what your day-to-day responsibilities entail after the new title and Luhnow’s departure?

John Vuch: From a Player Development perspective, the bigger change actually came at the end of the 2010 season as Jeff focused his efforts on Amateur Scouting and I was given responsibility for our Player Development department. So in that respect, while the Amateur Scouting Department is experiencing major changes with the departure of Jeff (and Sig Mejdal [ed. note: Sig Mejdal left to become the Astros Director of Decision Sciences under Jeff Luhnow]), and the arrival of Dan Kantrovitz as Amateur Scouting director, there will be little effect on how we do things in player development, since we already began implementing a lot of changes when I moved into my new role for the 2011 season. I had good relationships with both Jeff and Sig and always enjoyed discussing players, theories and different ways of making evaluations with them, so I certainly don’t want to minimize the effect of their departure or their role in helping to provide talented players into the organization. But the vast majority of our scouts in the field are still with us and Chris Correa does a phenomenal job from the analytical side of things, so I’m confident that Dan and our amateur scouting department will continue to provide our farm system with the raw materials we need to develop players for our Major League club.

When I shifted into the role of Farm Director, that allowed me to focus more on the actual decisions that we make in terms of building our minor league rosters, making in-season transactions and ensuring that our players are being taught in a manner that is consistent with the expectations of the Major League club. Although I had many years in Player Development, it was a different experience last year being given the autonomy to make those decisions and implement changes to the way we develop our players. Fortunately, John Mozeliak gave me the resources necessary to succeed in the new role, and a big part of it was having Gary LaRocque spend the majority of his time with our minor league clubs. Gary has a wealth of experience as a former Farm Director and Scouting Director, so he was (and continues to be) a huge resource for me. I’m able to bounce ideas off him and get honest feedback, which is vital in helping me in the decision-making process.

Although the role of Farm Director puts me ultimately responsible for the productivity of our farm system and in charge of making the decisions associated with that department, we’ve really made an effort to involve all of our field staff in the decision-making process. Much of my time, especially in-season, is spent on the phone with the managers/coaches/rovers that are seeing our players on a daily basis. It’s vital to get the staff’s input on player decisions, as they should be the ones that know their own players better than anyone. While it’s not a strict “democracy”, and there are times where unpopular decisions have to be made, whenever possible I try to avoid simply making unilateral decisions without getting as much input as possible from people who can provide helpful insight. So the way I look at it is when our farm system is going well it’s absolutely a collective effort involving everyone in our department – conversely if the system isn’t going well that should fall on me, since I’m ultimately the one who put that staff in place. But I’ve got a lot of confidence in the group that we currently have teaching our players, and we’re always looking for ways to make ourselves better.

AZ: You’ve been with the Cardinals’ organization for a long time. Long enough that I feel guilty asking exactly how long that’s been but, if I recall correctly, it’s been since you were a teenager. I doubt that anyone considers the major league baseball business to be one that is a 9-5 work schedule or low stress. What helps to keep you motivated after working in a front office for as long as you have?

JV: That’s correct – I started working for the Cardinals as a 16-year old High school junior in 1979. (No need to do the math – while I don’t feel old, I suppose the calendar doesn’t lie!) After graduating from college, I finally became full-time in 1985 and moved over to the Baseball Operations department prior to the 1988 season. Motivation has never been an issue, as I can honestly say there’s never been a day where I woke up and said “I don’t feel like going to work today”. I know I’ve been extremely fortunate to be given the opportunity to have a career in an industry that I love – being able to attempt to make small contributions to the team that I grew up rooting for makes it even better.

The hours can be long – during spring training it’s 7 days a week, starting every day before 7:00 am and in-season we roll up a lot of 15+ hour days, but when you’re doing a job you enjoy, the hours aren’t an issue. While the advent of email, cell phones, etc make you accessible and “on-call” 24 hours a day, it also makes it much easier to work away from the office. There’s no doubt that there is stress associated with the job, but really the only negative aspect is the demands it makes on the rest of my family and their events that I miss when I’m traveling. They’re incredibly understanding about it since it’s really always been that way, and they have adapted to it – but it still doesn’t make it any easier when I have to leave!

Ultimately though, the motivation simply comes from enjoying what I do for a living.

AZ: You and I have corresponded some in the past about the club’s desire to teach minor leaguers about their off the field “responsibilities” as well as on the field ones. Specifically, I’m curious about the club’s approach to twitter. There are a lot of players with public accounts and, at times, they share some very personal information. What’s the club’s approach to twitter given how accessible and popular of a technology it is becoming with young people?

JV: Social media is something that we’ve already addressed with our players in the past, but we have plans in place to spend more time discussing it with them this spring. If used properly, Twitter and Facebook can be a positive way for players to connect with fans and the media, as well as begin to create a “brand” for themselves. If used improperly, players can embarrass themselves and the organization and cause damage to their public image.

I’m sympathetic with our players at times because I remember being young and doing dumb things at their age and, I’m very grateful that the internet wasn’t around to memorialize some of those things for posterity! But the big difference is that in 2012 everyone has the ability to take pictures/videos of them with their phones and, while I was an anonymous college student at their age, as professional athletes and public figures, they don’t have the luxury of doing some of the things their peers can do without it becoming public.

We have had conversations with a few players about “tweets” that don’t put them in a good light, and once we discuss it with them individually, the vast majority of players we’ve spoken with seem to have gotten the message. However, there are still a few “tweets” that get brought to my attention that, although they may not be atypical from a young man in his late teens/early twenties, aren’t consistent with what the Cardinals stand for.

To me, the key is not banning them from using a technology that is only going to become even more prevalent, but instead to educate them on how to use it properly as a public figure. The best analogy I’ve heard is to equate it to sitting in an auditorium with a microphone in front of 100 people, or 1,000 people or 10,000 people (depending on how many followers). If it’s something you wouldn’t be comfortable saying it out loud in front of a crowd of that size, it doesn’t belong on your Twitter. I anticipate that social media will be an issue that we continue to address and educate our players about in the coming months and years, and hopefully our players will continue to improve on using those forms of communication in ways that benefit their image rather than making them and the club look bad.

AZ: We’re coming up on Spring Training and there will be a lot of minor leaguers who will head to Florida to take part in both the major league and minor league camps. Statistically, it’s not a lot of time to judge a player on the numbers. What are some things, outside of the quantifiable results and performance, that the club wants to see from prospects during this time?

JV: You hit the nail on the head – spring training is an awfully small sample size to simply look at the stats they compile in March and use that as the sole basis for deciding what club they make. We can’t ignore a player’s prior history, especially for those that have been in the organization for years. That said, we’re looking for improvements in comparison to the prior year. For pitchers – is he throwing harder? Is he exhibiting better command? Throwing the breaking pitch more consistently for strikes? Similarly for hitters – Has he gotten stronger, better conditioned? Exhibiting better plate discipline? Has his defense improved? Those types of questions frequently play a role in determining whether a player gets moved up or whether he tops out at his prior level.

AZ: The Cardinals farm system is regarded as a top 10 system right now. While there will likely be prospects who contribute to the Cardinals, there’s a real possibility for the club to use some of these players as trade pieces as well. As the farm director, what is it like to watch players you’ve helped usher through the system switch affiliations via trades?

JV: Our goal in player development is always very simple – to do anything possible to contribute to a championship caliber club. Whether that’s “graduating” players to the major leagues, as we saw last year with Lance Lynn, Eduardo Sanchez, Fernando Salas, Adron Chambers, etc, or it means trading Alex Castellanos in order to acquire Rafael Furcal, both methods are part of accomplishing the larger goal in player development. From a selfish standpoint, it’s always fun and satisfying to watch the young guys come up and make an impact, but especially when it turns out like 2011. I’m just as happy to see a minor league player turn into immediate major league help through trade. Ideally, the key is to know your own players better than anyone else, and perhaps move a guy that the other organization values more highly than we do.

Note: My thanks to John Vuch for his time in answering my questions. Don’t forget to come back tomorrow for the conclusion where we’ll discuss player’s transitioning positions and the implementation of the player development system with a new manager.

• You’re trading for a good not great player. Someone around 4 WAR like a Chris Young or a Peter Bourjos who is under contract (or team control) for 2 years.
• It’s a straight prospect for MLB player trade.
• The opposing team wants the package to be centered around a single prospect with some other lesser prospects added in too.
• The team keeps asking for a better prospect in return as you slowly move up your person top 10 list.

When do you say enough is enough? Who would be an untouchable prospect for you in any realistic trade scenario?  My personal answer after the jump but I’m curious about just how protective we are of our prospects as a group.

I’d have a really hard time moving any of my top four prospects in a scenario like this. Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez, Tyrell Jenkins and Oscar Taveras would all be off limits. I’d be pretty hesitant with Matt Adams, Kolten Wong and Trevor Rosenthal but would probably make the trade.

The first line, Colby Rasmus’ performance in 2006, cemented his position as the Cardinals’ #1 prospect, which he wouldn’t relinquish until graduating to the majors. The latter performance put Oscar Taveras at #4 on the Future Redbirds top 20 and generally in the #3 or #4 spot on industry lists. Is it possible that Oscar Taveras is underrated?

Stats don’t tell the whole story of a player in A-ball but Oscar Taveras put together some impressive statistics nonetheless. He showed plate coverage that without an obvious weakness that opposition pitchers could consistently exploit leading to a modest 15% strikeout rate.  He showed excellent power with an isolated slugging of .198 (on par with Rasmus’ .201 2006 ISO). If there’s a place to be concerned about Taveras it’s the unsustainable .440 BABIP. While his walk rate was still good (9%), the luck on balls in play may obscure the fact that Taveras was still quite excellent.

If you aggressively normalize Taveras’ numbers by assuming 1) that balls in play are converted to outs in A-ball nearly the same percentage of time that they are in the majors and 2) that Taveras true talent level on balls in play is no better than an average major league hitter.  In that case, Taveras should have recorded approximately 30 fewer hits in 2011: 23 fewer singles, 4 fewer doubles and 1 fewer triples. (Home runs are not balls in play and thus unaffected by this.) That puts his batting line at .327/.383/.506. A .889 OPS would have tied him with 12th place in the league (not adjusting anyone else’s statistics). All this while still being one of the youngest players in the league.

What makes Taveras more compelling as a prospect is that he’s well regarded by scouts as well.  With Taveras spending more time in the US this season, the reports have been better informed and more consistently positive. Some equivocate on his long term home run potential but acknowledge that he compensates by hitting the ball hard even when it is inside the park.  Taveras isn’t a true centerfielder in the same mold as Colby Rasmus when Rasmus was in the minors but he’s not a lead-footed corner outfielder as well.

Taveras is up against a different set of prospects as well. There was no equivalent to Shelby Miller when Colby Rasmus sat atop the rankings. The farm system has come a long way since 2005 and is flush with blue chip, high upside prospects. But this isn’t necessarily an argument about Taveras’ position within the fiefdom of Cardinal prospects so much as it is about the general disposition towards Taveras.

It’s difficult to make the case that Taveras is a true five tool player — he’s not. His speed is average and his defense is good but not necessarily tremendous. What Taveras has displayed in 2011, however, should be a cautionary tale to doubters.  Taveras hit better than any scouting report from the previous year would have suggested display great power, if not great home run power.  Given his young age, one has to wonder — is Oscar Taveras underrated?

Consider that there are 3 first round picks on that list: Shelby Miller, Tyrell Jenkins and Lance Lynn. It’s still a long way for Jenkins to get into any kind of realistic”when will he arrive” conversation but Miller is not far removed from the majors and Lance Lynn is all but in the majors permanently.

The Cardinals also selected Jordan Swagerty with a second round pick and Joe Kelly with a third round. Both pitchers have moved all the way up to Springfield though their games are very different. Kelly is far more fastball dependent that Swagerty but also generates more groundballs.  Kelly is often discussed as a future reliever despite being a starter throughout the minors while Swagerty is discussed as a starter despite being a reliever in the minors (and sometimes starter).

The other late round pitchers include the aforementioned Rosenthal, 11th rounder Adam Reifer, non-drafted free agent Brandon Dickson and 18th rounder Boone Whiting.  In many ways, a list like this is survivor bias writ large. Singling out these four from the dozens and dozens of later round arms drafted showcases their talent and ability to progress but understates just how many pitching corpses they stepped over along the way.

While the draft has done well for the Cardinals, it’s hard to ignore their highest profile international signing Carlos Martinez who ranks #2 on virtually every prospect list behind Shelby Miller.  While Martinez is now the poster child for the Cardinals Latin program, he’s joined by another Latin signing, Eduardo Sanchez, from the Cardinals early developmental days in the region. in 2005, the Cardinals were ramping up their academies and making a serious push into the region. The Cardinals also acquired Maikel Cleto, a Dominican prospect, from the Mariners in the trade for Brendan Ryan.

Consider that the first half of the Jeff Luhnow draft era (2005-2007) included many early draft pick arms that faltered badly. In 2005, none of the four consecutive pitchers selected in the first supplemental and second round even received a cup-of-coffee visit to the majors or were considered valuable prospects after two years in the minors. 2006 fared a little better with Chris Perez forging a career with the Indians (don’t look his peripherals in the eye, however) and Adam Ottavino hanging on in AAA looking for an opening as a reliever. It also had Brad Furnish, Gary Daley and Eddie Degerman who all flamed out in Springfield. 2007 featured Clayton Mortensen and Jess Todd who have struggled to be more than replacement level in the majors.

Now the Cardinals are looking at Shelby Miller as a future ace, Lance Lynn as a high end reliever or mid-rotation starter and Tyrell Jenkins as a higher upside prospect than any of the names from 2005-2007.  The Cardinals may have just gotten luckier in recent drafts. They may have gotten better at developing pitchers once they are in the system. Regardless, the current crop of early round draft picks is undeniably the best of any moment from the Jeff Luhnow era.

MLB.com: If it’s possible to sum up in a few sentences, what general philosophies and strategies underline your view of drafting amateur players?

Kantrovitz: From a scouting standpoint, we will focus on players with a high ceiling who have a chance to make an impact in the Major Leagues…

His answer continues on to even more territory that would make even the most hard-hearted HPGF member reach for the paper bag.  Read the whole interview it is good insight to the man who will be calling the shots during the amateur draft.

From 2004-2011, Yadier Molina ranks 8th in Fangraphs’ WAR among catchers.  This understates his talent though as defensive rankings for  catchers are rudimentary. While other catchers are getting nearly full credit for their talent since they are offense first players (e.g. Jorge Posada), Yadier Molina doesn’t even crack the top 30 in wOBA over that time period. There’s a compelling rationale that Molina is a top 5 catcher during his MLB tenure.

The Cardinals have become accustomed in recent years to consistency in their backstop. Prior to Molina, now manager Mike Matheny was the primary catcher from 2000-2004. Matheny personified the Cardinals desire for a defensive catcher in spite of offensive shortcomings.  Loved by his pitchers, Matheny was nothing short of anemic at the plate.  Posting a .277 wOBA, about .055 points worse than league average or 3 wins below league average on offense, Matheny was still behind the plate for no less than 110 games each year.

It will have been 12 years since the Cardinals had their last “one year” catcher (Eli Marrero in a share time with Alberto Castillo) if Yadier Molina leaves as a free agent.  A quick glance at the Future Redbirds Top 20 list shows exactly zero catchers make the rankings.  Can the club fill this need from within or will they need to dip into the free agent market themselves?

The obvious replacement candidates internally are Bryan Anderson and Tony Cruz. The latter has the better defensive reputation and the former is better liked by most projection systems in terms of his offense. Given that the Cardinals have yet to sign a backup catcher free agent, both Anderson and Cruz will audition for the role in Spring Training.  Whoever claims the role, and their subsequent performance during the season, could make inroads on the position for the following season. Both are projected for a better wOBA than Mike Matheny and much better wOBAs relative to the offensive environment of the league.  Whether either can step into a full time role remains to be seen.

The farm system is thin, however, beyond the immediate depth. Steve Hill, a sometimes catcher, will be coming back from a major knee injury. Nick Derba has struggled at the plate badly despite ascending to Memphis. Travis Tartamella has faced similar travails on his way up to Springfield. Dominican product Luis de la Cruz has failed to distinguish himself from other low level catchers like Jonathan Keener or Geoffrey Klein.

The three most promising candidates for catcher are, in no particular order, Audry Perez, Robert Stock and Cody Stanley. Perez received some attention after landing in Keith Law’s top 10 Cardinal prospect lists.  He’s shown good power during his professional career but has struggled badly against advanced breaking pitches.  Perez will be 23 next season and Springfield seems a likely destination.

Robert Stock is the catcher that many are curious to see as a pitcher.  Stock hit well at Johnson City in an abbreviated 2009 performance after he was drafted. The following year his performance would crater badly with Quad Cities and the questions about a Jason Motte-like conversion began again. Staying behind the plate in 2011, Stock struggled at the start of the season but showed some signs of life after an early promotion to Palm Beach where he posted a .339 OBP.  Some of the luster with Stock is certainly his draft status (second round pick) but, fundamentally, he’s not as flawed as some critics would say.

The last player would be Cody Stanley who spent 2011 in the Quad Cities and accumulated a .264/.317/.425, which was actually a bit better than league average offense in the MWL.  Stanley was noted for his athleticism coming into the draft, which I echoed later.  The lack of obvious detriments — he can hit a little, defend home plate, handle a pitching staff, and is no slouch on the bases — is faint praise but also something that can’t be said about many other catchers in the Cardinals farm system.

If that reads like an unenthusiastic endorsement of the Cardinals backstops, it is. There’s no obvious standout or a high upside prospect in the low levels. 2013 is still a year off but the Cardinals may want to keep an eye on the free agent market if they are unable or unwilling to retain Yadier Molina’s services for the future.

#20. Boone Whiting
Stats
18th Round of 2010 Draft
Ranked: jeff – NA, azruavatar – 18
Player Comments:

Whiting is going to have to prove detractors wrong on an annual basis. There’s legitimate reasons to doubt him including the similarities to former prospects like Trey Hearne and P.J. Walters who carved up the low minors with command and a below average velocity fastball. Whiting has a little more speed on his fastball and he has a true out pitch with his change-up, something that I was never convinced of with Walters. Skepticism is warranted but Whiting’s combination of exceptional command, a fastball that gets over the 90mph mark (if barely) and a noteworthy changeup is enough to crack the top 20. -azruavatar

#19. Brandon Dickson
Stats
Undrafted Free Agent
Ranked: jeff – 18, azruavatar – NA
Player Comments:

Brandon Dickson is the definition of a low-ceiling, but he continues to rise in the ranks and continues to put up surprisingly good numbers at each stop despite less than fantastic stuff.  Last year in Memphis, he had a 19% strikeout rate to only a 5.5% walk rate.  He’s going into his age 27 season, so his prospect timer has just about dinged,  but Dickson could have great value in the major leagues as a back of the rotation innings-eating starter.  -jeff

#18. Tommy Pham
Stats
16th Round of 2006 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 20, azruavatar – 17
Player Comments:

Pham has been around, seemingly, forever but is just 24 years of age. He enticed analysts early with his athleticism and tools, which are still very apparent when watching him play, but finally started to make some noise two years ago in Spring Training. That carried over into a successful 2010 and 2011 though Hammon’s field tends to exacerbate power output and he was lucky on balls in play.  Injuries factored into 2010 but especially 2011 when he logged just 40 games prior to a wrist injury.  He’s improved his approach at the plate attributed to eye surgery he had in the offseason.  After 6 years in the system, prospect fatigue is setting in but Pham still has the capability of breaking out but he has to stay healthy to do so.  -azruavatar

#17. Charlie Tilson
Stats
2nd Round of 2011 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 15, azruavatar – 20
Player Comments:

Tilson is here for his projection more than anything else, having just been drafted last year.  He’s a speedy center-field prospect, who has the batting projection to become a starting center-fielder in the majors.  He’s more speed than power at this point, but the power projection is there.  After only 8 games this season in the minors after signing late, this year will be interesting for Tilson, both with where the Cardinals place him and how well he plays.  -jeff

#16. Adam Reifer
Stats
11th Round of 2007 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 16, azruavatar – 16
Player Comments:

In just his 5th appearance of 2011 on April 17th, Adam Reifer blew out his knee ending his season.  The primary difference between his early professional career and his more recent efforts had been improved command leading to fewer walks and fewer hits. The pure stuff was still good and should still be there: a mid-90s fastball with a wipeout slider. Reifer will have a prominent role in a bullpen (setup or closer) for 2012 and will, obviously, be looking to recapture 2010 while staying healthy.  With the exception of Eduardo Sanchez, Reifer is the most advanced and, arguably, best pure relief prospect left in the farm system. -azruavatar

#15. Maikel Cleto
Stats
Amateur Free Agent
Ranked: jeff – 13, azruavatar – 15
Player Comments:

Any ranking of Maikel Cleto starts with: he can throw 100 MPH.  That allows him to throw a changeup at 91 MPH and a slider at 85 MPH.  Anytime you have those type of numbers on the radar gun, it is going to allow you more room for error.  Cleto’s stuff is not the problem, it is his control.  Cleto was bounced around to 4 different levels last year, he started at Palm Beach and pitched in the majors and everywhere in between.  He would be benefit from a full season in Memphis this year to try and reduce his 5.43 BB/9 IP from the 13 games during his Memphis stop last year. - jeff

#14. Jordan Swagerty
Stats
2nd Round of 2010 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 14, azruavatar – 14
Player Comments:

Jordan Swagerty ranked at #13 on my person list last year and 17 on Future Redbirds official 2011 list. I remain at least curious as to what his final role in the organization will be: starter or reliever. For now, I’m simply happy that I got the relative 2011 rankings of Swagerty and teammate Seth Blair correct.  Swagerty has an assortment of pitches and, while he was starting, he used them to excellent effects in both the Quad Cities and Palm Beach until he was, perplexingly, placed in relief. Despite having excellent command and a four-pitch repertoire, don’t mistake Swagerty for a finesse pitcher.  This spot in the rankings is about two things: several high upside players leap-frogging him on the list and the uncertainty of whether he’ll start or finish games in the long term.  Next year, I may look back at Swagerty and prospect #13 and realize I was had things backwards.  - azruavatar

#13. Joe Kelly
Stats
3rd Round of 2009 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 17, azruavatar – 10
Player Comments:

Joe Kelly was bumped out of the FR top 10 prospects due to some fantastic up and comers and the fact that despite an improvement in his walk rate in Springfield, he still allowed more line drive contact which resulted in more hits and home runs allowed. (Smallish sample size alert)  He is still a ground ball machine, but after half a season in Palm Beach and half in Springfield, he may be due for another year in AA to continue to work, but he still projects well to the majors.  - jeff

#12. Ryan Jackson
Stats
5th Round of 2009 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 12, azruavatar – 12
Player Comments:

In 2010, Ryan Jackson started to garner attention for his steady, if unspectacular, offense that he combined with the best defense in the Cardinals minor league system.  With soft hands, a strong arm and above average range, Jackson looks every bit the part of a shortstop. 2011 was much the same. After starting out very strong at the plate, Jackson’s numbers in Springfield faded to around league average. As a defense-first shortstop, league average offense is more than enough to supplement the value of a glove.  Springfield’s park effects will cause some to question whether Jackson’s increased power production is a mirage but that misses the point. Jackson doesn’t have to be great offensively because, so far, he looks great defensively.  The 2012 goal for Jackson is to supplant Pete Kozma at the top of the farm system depth chart for shortstop. - azruavatar

#11. Eduardo Sanchez
Stats
Amateur Free Agent
Ranked: jeff – 11, azruavatar – 13
Player Comments:

Eduardo Sanchez got great exposure in the majors last year and we saw why everyone thought so highly of him as he climbed through the minor league system.  A very mysterious shoulder injury, however, derailed the back end of his promising first season in the majors.  He was even worked with at closer early last year as the Cardinals struggled to find someone to fill that role.  I think Sanchez still has closer upside, but the shoulder injury casts his ranking into a bit of doubt. - jeff

#10. Lance Lynn
Stats
1st Round of 2008 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 10, azruavatar – 11
Player Comments:

Lance Lynn was impressive in 2011. The velocity gain that came from adjusted mechanics in the latter half of 2010 was legitimate. Lynn further showcased his talents with a major league stint in the pen where he became an important cog in throughout the playoffs. Lynn produced the best results of his career in the most critical time. There’s an argument that this ranking is low and it probably revolves around proximity to the majors versus a players pure upside.  Lynn looked tremendous in 2011 and there’s no taking that away. Long term, he still looks more like a mid-rotation starter to me than anything else. - azruavatar

#9. Matt Carpenter
Stats
13th Round of 2009 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 9, azruavatar – 8
Player Comments:

Matt Carpenter continues his reign on Future Redbirds top 10 prospects due to his On Base Percentage.  It is very telling that Carpenter had a 113 wOBA+ in Memphis last year despite turning over 50% of his batted balls into ground balls.  He’s a 3rd baseman by trade, but his offensive profile it not exactly what you want out of a 3rd baseman as he doesn’t hit for enough power.  However, his good hit tool and exceptional ability to get on base should get him to the majors soon. - jeff

#8. Zack Cox
Stats
1st Round of 2010 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 8, azruavatar – 9
Player Comments:

The difference between Zack Cox and Matt Carpenter is draft position.  Zack Cox was not given a major league contract out of the draft because he was a long term projection. He received that contract because he was extremely polished and should require very little time in the minors. To date, Matt Carpenter has outperformed Cox by a healthy margin and unless the power from the early parts of Cox’s college career makes an unexpected return, these two players will be hard to differentiate in terms of production. Long term, Cox appears to be a high average hitter with modest plate discipline and moderate power. Probably not the star upside the Cardinals were hoping for when they signed him to a major league deal but certainly still a valuable prospect. - azruavatar

#7. Trevor Rosenthal
Stats
21st Round of 2009 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 7, azruavatar – 6
Player Comments:

In a system that is flush with high-upside arms, Rosenthal often gets a little lost, but certainly should not.  He struck out 26% of batters faced this year in Quad Cities and entering his age 22 season, he still has a projection that is in the range of a 2 or 3 starter.  That’s what keeps him outside of the top 5 but firmly in the top 10. - jeff

#6. Kolten Wong
Stats
1st Round of 2011 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 5, azruavatar – 7
Player Comments:

He does back-flips. He also plays a good defensive second base and has excellent bat control.  After signing last season, he showed surprising power with the Quad Cities River Bandits. Did I mention that he can do backflips? Wong is clearly the best middle infield prospect in the system and would be the top prospect in other systems. Yes, you read that right. The Cardinals #6 prospect is better than other clubs #1 prospect. Sorry, Houston.  - azruavatar

#5. Matt Adams
Stats
23rd Round of 2009 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 6, azruavatar – 5
Player Comments:

Matt Adams can mash, there is no doubt about that.  However, he strikes a bit of an odd offensive profile as a slugger that doesn’t walk very much, but instead hits for an over .300 average.  Some also have concerns about his body and wonder whether he will be able to present any range at 1B or if he would be limited to DH duty.  Adams skipped Palm Beach last year and didn’t miss a beat; he is ticketed for Memphis in 2012 and should make a play for 1B going forward. - jeff

#4. Oscar Taveras
Stats
Amateur Free Agent
Ranked: jeff – 3, azruavatar – 4
Player Comments:

The criticisms of Taveras’ game, namely those from Keith Law, have been a little inexplicable. Termed as having a “violent” swing, Taveras put up monster numbers in the pitcher friendly Midwest League as a 19 year old.  The implication of the “violence” in the swing seems to be that Taveras will be unable to sustain it at higher levels. That is true as it is with almost any prospect. Taveras did not show significant weaknesses in 2011 with a good walk rate and a modest strikeout rate. If there is a criticism of his 2011 performance, it has to be on his batted ball profile and whether a .440 BABIP is sustainable; it’s not sustainable. Yet even if that number were regressed toward the mean, Oscar Taveras will still have had a fantastic 2011. He’s a good enough fielder to play center though he may be better suited for a corner position long term.  This might be the highest upside position player the Cardinals have had in the system since Colby Rasmus. - azruavatar

#3. Tyrell Jenkins
Stats
1st Round of 2010 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 4, azruavatar – 3
Player Comments:

Jenkins is solidly the 3rd of the high upside starter triumvirate at the top of the Cardinals prospect, mostly because he has not gotten about short season Johnson City yet in his career, but he is just entering his age 19 season.  Jenkins has plenty of time and the Cardinals are bringing him along slow.  With very projectable mechanics and a top end starter’s ceiling, he is going to start to put up some numbers in the minors very soon. - jeff

#2. Carlos Martinez
Stats
Amateur Free Agent
Ranked: jeff – 2, azruavatar – 2
Player Comments:

Martinez was dominant in low-A living up to the hype during his first outings in the US. His slight frame and late season control issues are the only demerits on an otherwise good year.  Martinez has the best stuff this side of Shelby Miller and is more advanced than Tyrell Jenkins. 2012 should be a consolidation year for Martinez who only pitched 80+ innings (18 starts) in 2011. Holding steady and not getting blasted when he arrives in Springfield, will be enough to maintain his prospect position. Well, that and a near 100mph fastball. - azruavatar

#1. Shelby Miller
Stats
1st Round of 2009 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 1, azruavatar – 1
Player Comments:

What is there left to say about Shelby Miller that hasn’t been said before?  Every year that he continues to maintain his #1 starter ceiling as he gets closer and closer to the big leagues is a great year.  He has some slight maturity issues that he should grow out of, but shouldn’t be in St. Louis any later than Opening Day 2013 barring injury.  *knocks on wood* -  jeff

The Graduates

#5. Allen Craig
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 9, Jeff Roman – 5, erik – 3

#12. Daniel Descalso
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 17, Jeff Roman – 12, erik – 11

Not much to explain with these two as they both surpassed 130 ABs in 2011. Allen Craig had a fine year and proved just how steady his bat is offensively. His conversion to the outfield has been mostly successful — we’ve certainly seen worse defense from outfielders before — and, assuming his surgery is successful, Craig should be an important cog as an outfield-first base fill supersub.

Descalso spent time at second and third starting off his time in the majors with some incredible defense that tapered off as the year continues.  The defensive metrics weren’t terribly impressed with his performance (small sample size caveat) but Descalso should get the opportunity to fight Tyler Greene for playing time at second base in 2012.

The Bubble Prospects

#20. Steve Hill
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – N/A, Jeff Roman – 13, erik – N/A

#19. Deryk Hooker
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 14, Jeff Roman – N/A, erik – 19

#18. Adron Chambers
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – N/A, Jeff Roman – 11, erik – N/A

You’ve got three candidates that each had someone rank them in a discrepant way last year. It’s hard to point at any of these guys on the edge as huge misses or hits.

Steve Hill was coming off a 2010 performance where he hit for a .263 ISO as a part time catcher.  He had increased his walk rate and power from 2009 after repeating at Springfield with the main deficiency being a defined defensive position.  In 2011, he suffered a knee injury and collected just 163 PAs in the minors.  Entering his age 27 season with no substantive amount of time in Memphis, it’s hard to see Hill making the majors much less having an impact.

Deryk Hooker was drafted out of high school and started playing for the Cardinals at age 18. In the low minors, he’d flash great results with high strikeout rates and, personally, I liked his stuff as a mid-rotation kind of player.  He struggled in 2011 as he advanced to Springfield with the lack of a true out pitch hurt his strikeout rate and the park hurt his homerun rate. A year after being #19 he looks a little tarnished still needing to prove he can pass the Double-A test.

Jeff wrote about Adron Chambers here previously. He’s a player that looks like he can have a nice role as a back up centerfielder or sometimes starter bringing some incredible speed to the bases.  With the similarly left-handed Jon Jay in center for the Cardinals, Chambers may be a better fit for another team.

The Catchers

#16. Cody Stanley
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 16, Jeff Roman – 18, erik – 15

#15. Bryan Anderson
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 12, Jeff Roman – N/A, erik – 13

2012 was one of the more upside oriented lists we’ve had for top prospects in part because the system is currently filled with high potential players that are still in the low minors. In 2011, both Bryan Anderson and Cody Stanley made the list on the merits of their position more than offensive potential.  Anderson had a typically solid year for himself, hitting a little below average relative to the league and maintaining his sub-par defensive reputation.  He’s so close to the majors at this point (and it seems like a new playing field with Mike Matheny as the manager) that he may finally get a chance to stick.  Surprisingly, Anderson will be just 25 for the entirety of the 2012 season.

Stanley spent 2011 in Quad Cities and proved to be (mostly) what we thought he was: a better hitter than most catchers at his level and a legitimate defensive option behind the plate. For 2012, that wasn’t enough to crack the top 20.

The Gary Daley Candidate

#10. Seth Blair
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 19, Jeff Roman – 9, erik – 6

It’s not hard to figure out why Blair fell out of the rankings this year. He couldn’t stick in the rotation due to atrocious control and a soaring walk rate.  My reservations about Blair last year had more to do with his stuff (which didn’t impress me in college from video or on paper) than with his control.  Maybe last year was an aberration but a 6.83 BB/9IP rate is one heck of an aberration.

The “What Were You Thinking?” Guy

#14. Nick Longmire
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 8, Jeff Roman – 19, erik – 18

Not much I can do but take my lumps on this one.  Longmire still intrigues me — I’ve seen him play first hand in the Quad Cities — but in a more fix-er-up kind of way. His numbers  (.287/.372/.483) in Batavia were great in 2010 but 2011′s time at Quad Cities was not so kind. His swing has holes and needs a great deal of work to cope with breaking pitches.  I can’t justify a #8 ranking on my part other than to say that I missed, better luck next time.