#20. Boone Whiting
Stats
18th Round of 2010 Draft
Ranked: jeff – NA, azruavatar – 18
Player Comments:

Whiting is going to have to prove detractors wrong on an annual basis. There’s legitimate reasons to doubt him including the similarities to former prospects like Trey Hearne and P.J. Walters who carved up the low minors with command and a below average velocity fastball. Whiting has a little more speed on his fastball and he has a true out pitch with his change-up, something that I was never convinced of with Walters. Skepticism is warranted but Whiting’s combination of exceptional command, a fastball that gets over the 90mph mark (if barely) and a noteworthy changeup is enough to crack the top 20. -azruavatar

#19. Brandon Dickson
Stats
Undrafted Free Agent
Ranked: jeff – 18, azruavatar – NA
Player Comments:

Brandon Dickson is the definition of a low-ceiling, but he continues to rise in the ranks and continues to put up surprisingly good numbers at each stop despite less than fantastic stuff.  Last year in Memphis, he had a 19% strikeout rate to only a 5.5% walk rate.  He’s going into his age 27 season, so his prospect timer has just about dinged,  but Dickson could have great value in the major leagues as a back of the rotation innings-eating starter.  -jeff

#18. Tommy Pham
Stats
16th Round of 2006 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 20, azruavatar – 17
Player Comments:

Pham has been around, seemingly, forever but is just 24 years of age. He enticed analysts early with his athleticism and tools, which are still very apparent when watching him play, but finally started to make some noise two years ago in Spring Training. That carried over into a successful 2010 and 2011 though Hammon’s field tends to exacerbate power output and he was lucky on balls in play.  Injuries factored into 2010 but especially 2011 when he logged just 40 games prior to a wrist injury.  He’s improved his approach at the plate attributed to eye surgery he had in the offseason.  After 6 years in the system, prospect fatigue is setting in but Pham still has the capability of breaking out but he has to stay healthy to do so.  -azruavatar

#17. Charlie Tilson
Stats
2nd Round of 2011 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 15, azruavatar – 20
Player Comments:

Tilson is here for his projection more than anything else, having just been drafted last year.  He’s a speedy center-field prospect, who has the batting projection to become a starting center-fielder in the majors.  He’s more speed than power at this point, but the power projection is there.  After only 8 games this season in the minors after signing late, this year will be interesting for Tilson, both with where the Cardinals place him and how well he plays.  -jeff

#16. Adam Reifer
Stats
11th Round of 2007 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 16, azruavatar – 16
Player Comments:

In just his 5th appearance of 2011 on April 17th, Adam Reifer blew out his knee ending his season.  The primary difference between his early professional career and his more recent efforts had been improved command leading to fewer walks and fewer hits. The pure stuff was still good and should still be there: a mid-90s fastball with a wipeout slider. Reifer will have a prominent role in a bullpen (setup or closer) for 2012 and will, obviously, be looking to recapture 2010 while staying healthy.  With the exception of Eduardo Sanchez, Reifer is the most advanced and, arguably, best pure relief prospect left in the farm system. -azruavatar

#15. Maikel Cleto
Stats
Amateur Free Agent
Ranked: jeff – 13, azruavatar – 15
Player Comments:

Any ranking of Maikel Cleto starts with: he can throw 100 MPH.  That allows him to throw a changeup at 91 MPH and a slider at 85 MPH.  Anytime you have those type of numbers on the radar gun, it is going to allow you more room for error.  Cleto’s stuff is not the problem, it is his control.  Cleto was bounced around to 4 different levels last year, he started at Palm Beach and pitched in the majors and everywhere in between.  He would be benefit from a full season in Memphis this year to try and reduce his 5.43 BB/9 IP from the 13 games during his Memphis stop last year. - jeff

#14. Jordan Swagerty
Stats
2nd Round of 2010 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 14, azruavatar – 14
Player Comments:

Jordan Swagerty ranked at #13 on my person list last year and 17 on Future Redbirds official 2011 list. I remain at least curious as to what his final role in the organization will be: starter or reliever. For now, I’m simply happy that I got the relative 2011 rankings of Swagerty and teammate Seth Blair correct.  Swagerty has an assortment of pitches and, while he was starting, he used them to excellent effects in both the Quad Cities and Palm Beach until he was, perplexingly, placed in relief. Despite having excellent command and a four-pitch repertoire, don’t mistake Swagerty for a finesse pitcher.  This spot in the rankings is about two things: several high upside players leap-frogging him on the list and the uncertainty of whether he’ll start or finish games in the long term.  Next year, I may look back at Swagerty and prospect #13 and realize I was had things backwards.  - azruavatar

#13. Joe Kelly
Stats
3rd Round of 2009 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 17, azruavatar – 10
Player Comments:

Joe Kelly was bumped out of the FR top 10 prospects due to some fantastic up and comers and the fact that despite an improvement in his walk rate in Springfield, he still allowed more line drive contact which resulted in more hits and home runs allowed. (Smallish sample size alert)  He is still a ground ball machine, but after half a season in Palm Beach and half in Springfield, he may be due for another year in AA to continue to work, but he still projects well to the majors.  - jeff

#12. Ryan Jackson
Stats
5th Round of 2009 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 12, azruavatar – 12
Player Comments:

In 2010, Ryan Jackson started to garner attention for his steady, if unspectacular, offense that he combined with the best defense in the Cardinals minor league system.  With soft hands, a strong arm and above average range, Jackson looks every bit the part of a shortstop. 2011 was much the same. After starting out very strong at the plate, Jackson’s numbers in Springfield faded to around league average. As a defense-first shortstop, league average offense is more than enough to supplement the value of a glove.  Springfield’s park effects will cause some to question whether Jackson’s increased power production is a mirage but that misses the point. Jackson doesn’t have to be great offensively because, so far, he looks great defensively.  The 2012 goal for Jackson is to supplant Pete Kozma at the top of the farm system depth chart for shortstop. - azruavatar

#11. Eduardo Sanchez
Stats
Amateur Free Agent
Ranked: jeff – 11, azruavatar – 13
Player Comments:

Eduardo Sanchez got great exposure in the majors last year and we saw why everyone thought so highly of him as he climbed through the minor league system.  A very mysterious shoulder injury, however, derailed the back end of his promising first season in the majors.  He was even worked with at closer early last year as the Cardinals struggled to find someone to fill that role.  I think Sanchez still has closer upside, but the shoulder injury casts his ranking into a bit of doubt. - jeff

#10. Lance Lynn
Stats
1st Round of 2008 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 10, azruavatar – 11
Player Comments:

Lance Lynn was impressive in 2011. The velocity gain that came from adjusted mechanics in the latter half of 2010 was legitimate. Lynn further showcased his talents with a major league stint in the pen where he became an important cog in throughout the playoffs. Lynn produced the best results of his career in the most critical time. There’s an argument that this ranking is low and it probably revolves around proximity to the majors versus a players pure upside.  Lynn looked tremendous in 2011 and there’s no taking that away. Long term, he still looks more like a mid-rotation starter to me than anything else. - azruavatar

#9. Matt Carpenter
Stats
13th Round of 2009 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 9, azruavatar – 8
Player Comments:

Matt Carpenter continues his reign on Future Redbirds top 10 prospects due to his On Base Percentage.  It is very telling that Carpenter had a 113 wOBA+ in Memphis last year despite turning over 50% of his batted balls into ground balls.  He’s a 3rd baseman by trade, but his offensive profile it not exactly what you want out of a 3rd baseman as he doesn’t hit for enough power.  However, his good hit tool and exceptional ability to get on base should get him to the majors soon. - jeff

#8. Zack Cox
Stats
1st Round of 2010 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 8, azruavatar – 9
Player Comments:

The difference between Zack Cox and Matt Carpenter is draft position.  Zack Cox was not given a major league contract out of the draft because he was a long term projection. He received that contract because he was extremely polished and should require very little time in the minors. To date, Matt Carpenter has outperformed Cox by a healthy margin and unless the power from the early parts of Cox’s college career makes an unexpected return, these two players will be hard to differentiate in terms of production. Long term, Cox appears to be a high average hitter with modest plate discipline and moderate power. Probably not the star upside the Cardinals were hoping for when they signed him to a major league deal but certainly still a valuable prospect. - azruavatar

#7. Trevor Rosenthal
Stats
21st Round of 2009 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 7, azruavatar – 6
Player Comments:

In a system that is flush with high-upside arms, Rosenthal often gets a little lost, but certainly should not.  He struck out 26% of batters faced this year in Quad Cities and entering his age 22 season, he still has a projection that is in the range of a 2 or 3 starter.  That’s what keeps him outside of the top 5 but firmly in the top 10. - jeff

#6. Kolten Wong
Stats
1st Round of 2011 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 5, azruavatar – 7
Player Comments:

He does back-flips. He also plays a good defensive second base and has excellent bat control.  After signing last season, he showed surprising power with the Quad Cities River Bandits. Did I mention that he can do backflips? Wong is clearly the best middle infield prospect in the system and would be the top prospect in other systems. Yes, you read that right. The Cardinals #6 prospect is better than other clubs #1 prospect. Sorry, Houston.  - azruavatar

#5. Matt Adams
Stats
23rd Round of 2009 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 6, azruavatar – 5
Player Comments:

Matt Adams can mash, there is no doubt about that.  However, he strikes a bit of an odd offensive profile as a slugger that doesn’t walk very much, but instead hits for an over .300 average.  Some also have concerns about his body and wonder whether he will be able to present any range at 1B or if he would be limited to DH duty.  Adams skipped Palm Beach last year and didn’t miss a beat; he is ticketed for Memphis in 2012 and should make a play for 1B going forward. - jeff

#4. Oscar Taveras
Stats
Amateur Free Agent
Ranked: jeff – 3, azruavatar – 4
Player Comments:

The criticisms of Taveras’ game, namely those from Keith Law, have been a little inexplicable. Termed as having a “violent” swing, Taveras put up monster numbers in the pitcher friendly Midwest League as a 19 year old.  The implication of the “violence” in the swing seems to be that Taveras will be unable to sustain it at higher levels. That is true as it is with almost any prospect. Taveras did not show significant weaknesses in 2011 with a good walk rate and a modest strikeout rate. If there is a criticism of his 2011 performance, it has to be on his batted ball profile and whether a .440 BABIP is sustainable; it’s not sustainable. Yet even if that number were regressed toward the mean, Oscar Taveras will still have had a fantastic 2011. He’s a good enough fielder to play center though he may be better suited for a corner position long term.  This might be the highest upside position player the Cardinals have had in the system since Colby Rasmus. - azruavatar

#3. Tyrell Jenkins
Stats
1st Round of 2010 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 4, azruavatar – 3
Player Comments:

Jenkins is solidly the 3rd of the high upside starter triumvirate at the top of the Cardinals prospect, mostly because he has not gotten about short season Johnson City yet in his career, but he is just entering his age 19 season.  Jenkins has plenty of time and the Cardinals are bringing him along slow.  With very projectable mechanics and a top end starter’s ceiling, he is going to start to put up some numbers in the minors very soon. - jeff

#2. Carlos Martinez
Stats
Amateur Free Agent
Ranked: jeff – 2, azruavatar – 2
Player Comments:

Martinez was dominant in low-A living up to the hype during his first outings in the US. His slight frame and late season control issues are the only demerits on an otherwise good year.  Martinez has the best stuff this side of Shelby Miller and is more advanced than Tyrell Jenkins. 2012 should be a consolidation year for Martinez who only pitched 80+ innings (18 starts) in 2011. Holding steady and not getting blasted when he arrives in Springfield, will be enough to maintain his prospect position. Well, that and a near 100mph fastball. - azruavatar

#1. Shelby Miller
Stats
1st Round of 2009 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 1, azruavatar – 1
Player Comments:

What is there left to say about Shelby Miller that hasn’t been said before?  Every year that he continues to maintain his #1 starter ceiling as he gets closer and closer to the big leagues is a great year.  He has some slight maturity issues that he should grow out of, but shouldn’t be in St. Louis any later than Opening Day 2013 barring injury.  *knocks on wood* -  jeff

Before we dive in, here’s the league averages: The pitcher’s average age is 23. League average ERA is 3.56 (!). Hits per nine is 8.6, HR/9 is .5, BB/9 3.2, K/9 – 7.3, SO/BB 2.31, WHIP is 1.3.

Gorgen, Kopp and Castillo probably would rate as the best starting pitching prospects on this  team. I wouldn’t say any of their performances really stood out this past season.

Blake King put the K in King, but was still way too wild. My personal man-cruch Adam Reifer proved to be more hittable than I thought he would be this past season, but he settled down a bit as the season went on.

Other than Sanchez, who pitched more innings in Springfield, I wouldn’t give any of these prospects better than a C, C+ grade.

First of all, congrats on winning the Harry Mitauer Good Guy Award at the Baseball Writers Dinner. That’s one award I’d say the writers got right.

Thanks Erik. As I mentioned the night I received it, with so many good people working around the stadium, I would have been flattered merely to have my name come up in the discussion, let alone being named the recipient. But it’s easy to be in a good mood when doing something I love on a daily basis.

Baseball America ranked the Cardinals’ system the 8th best in baseball. What is your take the ranking?

We try not to get too wrapped up in what others say about our system, since there are so many variables that can affect a ranking. Even when our rankings were not as high, we were able to have players like Albert and Yadi come through the system, and turned other of our younger prospects into Major League talent through trades. But I think the feeling is universal within our organization that we have much more depth and significantly more players that can be realistically projected to have a Major League future than we had in prior years. I think the rankings are probably a reflection of that. But I don’t want to sound disingenuous by saying that I agree with the rankings when they rate us highly and disagreed when we were ranked lower!

The organization has not been shy about promoting players as of late. What are some of the factors that go into determining whether or not a prospect is ready to be moved up to a different level?

A lot of different things go into making that determination. Obviously, success at a lower level is often a big part of it, since if a player is struggling at a lower level, moving him up likely would just make it even tougher for him. If it’s a player that we consider one of our better prospects, then making sure that there’s an opening where he’ll get ample playing time is another priority, especially if we’ve already got a prospect playing the same position at that level. Almost every time we make a decision about moving a player up (or down), it will involve not only Jeff Luhnow and me, but also the managers for the teams involved as well as our hitting/pitching coordinators. Getting the perspective of our guys in the field is critical, since there’s often something that they’ve picked up on that could affect that player’s chances of success at the next level that isn’t necessarily reflected in the stats or in our game reports.

How long does it take to go about making roster assignments for the minor league teams to start the season?

It’s a lengthy process, and one that involves a lot of people. All of us have our “projected” rosters, and many of us were already projecting 2009 rosters while the 2008 season was going on, but there are so many variables that the actual rosters can often wind up bearing little resemblance to the projected rosters. Ideally, it’s because a player shows up being greatly improved over the prior year – however, other times it may be due to injuries or under performance. But we’ll have two days of meetings with our staff prior to the start of camp to discuss players and rosters, and then we’ll have numerous meetings throughout spring training, making decisions about who makes which club, who remains at Extended Spring Training, and who ultimately gets sent home. Oftentimes, we’re in a holding pattern with our rosters depending on what happens at the Major League level, so occasionally there are times where we have to react quickly to an unexpected player dropping down to our AAA roster, but there are many hours spent making the decisions that go into forming our opening day rosters.

We’ve seen a lot of positional movement with players lately, whether it be a no-hit catcher moving to the bullpen, or a certain scrappy outfielder moving to a spot of real need. Is this a paradigm the Cardinals are going to continue utilizing, heavily moving forward whenever there is a surplus at one position or a deficiency at another?

I think it often makes sense for a player to at least explore anything they can do to give themselves as much versatility as possible, especially since it’s often impossible to project where an opening may suddenly occur at the major league level. If a player has at least shown the ability to adequately handle multiple positions, it allows him to be considered as a candidate for a variety of roles, rather than being locked in exclusively at one spot. Additionally, if a player was drafted at an “offensive” position such as LF or first base, if it turns out that he has the ability to play a more challenging defensive position, that can turn him into a much more valuable commodity. One example of that is Tony Cruz, who is a solid defensive third baseman, but has impressed with his ability behind the plate. It’s much tougher to find catchers with Tony’s offensive capabilities than it is to find similar hitting third baseman, so by having Tony working on his catching he is able to make himself much more valuable, as well as giving him multiple ways to move through the system.

What do the Cardinals hope to improve on in terms of managing the minors in 2009 compared to 2008?

It’s hard to get into too many specifics, but our goal is to always have somebody ready within our farm system when there’s a hole or a need at the Major League level. There’s nothing wrong with signing players from outside the organization at times, but we always want that to be something that is done by choice, and not due to a lack of internal options. Ultimately the goal of the farm system is pretty simple – to continue to increase the quantity and quality of players making their way to St. Louis.

I’m sure you’re going get asked this a few bazillion times this spring, but how is Brett Wallace looking at the hot corner?

Brett may be unlikely to ever look like a prototypical third baseman, but the bottom line is that he makes the plays, has good hands, and despite an unusual throwing motion his arm is ML average at worst. Pop Warner, who was his manager both at Springfield and in the Arizona Fall League, was pleased with the progress that Brett made during his time in Arizona and at this point there’s no reason to believe that Brett couldn’t remain as a third baseman in the future.

Daryl Jones and Jess Todd won the organization’s pitcher and player of the year award, taking two different paths. Jones languished Low A before coming on like a house of fire, while Todd just rocketed through the system in his first full season. Please give me your thoughts on those two, and do you have a prediction as to who could be this year’s Daryl Jones (breakout hitter) or Jess Todd (fast-moving pitcher)?

Daryl really wasn’t a big surprise to me, as he’s always been a very coachable, intelligent kid, who really just needed to continue to get experience playing baseball. He’s always had the tools, but was a bit raw, having played multiple sports in high school. It’s always important to be patient with young players whenever possible, as evidenced by guys like Joe Mather and Chris Duncan, who both had their share of struggles in A-ball.

Jess was much more polished coming into pro ball, having had three years of college experience, but I don’t think anyone expected him to wind up in AAA by year’s end. He’s a good example of what can happen when a pitcher has excellent command of his fastball and breaking pitch, and pitches with poise. While he moved rapidly through the system, he proved at each stop that he had mastered the level, and once a player has accomplished that, we’re not reluctant to give him new challenges.

As far as names for this year, guys like Tommy Pham, Jon Edwards and Beau Riportella have shown flashes of their ability in the past and certainly have ample tools to make big jumps once everything clicks for them. Again, patience is key for those type of guys – even though they’ve been a part of the organization for several years, Pham and Edwards will play all year at age 21, while Riportella doesn’t turn 21 until August.

For candidates for fast-moving pitchers, guys like Lance Lynn, Adam Reifer and Sam Freeman come to mind, but there’s quite a few potential candidates that could fall into that category. We don’t set out with the intention for guys to make huge jumps within one season, but if warranted, we wouldn’t shy away from it either.

Letting Luis Perdomo go unprotected from the Rule 5 draft left a few of us fans scratching our heads. Can you help us understand the rationale behind that decision?

John Mozeliak uses a lot of different sources in making the final determination about who to place on the 40-man roster, including internal scouting reports from our own staff members, as well as weighing areas of organizational depth and weakness. We place more weight on the likelihood of a Rule 5 eligible player actually sticking with the drafting club than we do on the chances of selection alone. While it’s certainly understandable how Perdomo would be attractive to another organization, we faced the same questions a few years back when Tyler Johnson was selected by Oakland from us in the Rule 5 draft after pitching the entire year at AA. We felt that Perdomo was more like Juan Mateo, who we selected a few years back in the Rule 5, in terms of being a future major leaguer, but not quite being ready at this stage of his career.

With right handed relief being one of our biggest areas of organizational depth, placing Perdomo on the 40-man roster would have meant starting the clock on his options this spring. With the RH relievers we have ahead of him in the organization, it likely would be a couple years before he’d be in the majors with us, and saving an option year could turn out to be necessary down the road.

Jon Jay fascinates me. He’s done nothing but hit, and according some of the new  metrics available, he’s also an excellent fielder. What do you feel his upside is?

Jon has somewhat quietly moved through the organization, in part because much of the focus has (deservedly) been on Colby Rasmus, but he’s a very polished hitter, who has always hit for average and has a little more pop than people give him credit for. Defensively, he’s got the range and hands to play CF if needed, however if there’s no opening in CF, he could adequately handle a corner spot. As far as upside, there’s nothing that I’ve seen that indicates he couldn’t be a solid major league outfielder in the future.

Tyler Greene had an excellent showing the AFL. Do you believe has turned the corner?

I think so – the one thing I’ve noticed about Tyler is that he now plays with much more confidence than he did earlier in his career, and that he realizes that he’s capable of competing and succeeding against quality competition. He’s not a finished product yet, but he’s made big strides in the last year and offers an exciting blend of power, speed and defense.

I know it’s extremely early in his career, but how excited should we be about Roberto de la Cruz?

I think he’s a very exciting prospect. I haven’t seen much of him yet personally, but our guys who got to spend a lot of time with him during Instructional League came away very impressed. He’s our highest profile July 2 signee, and by all accounts, he seems to be worthy of that billing.

We try to assume that no news is good news with injuries, but can we get an update on Jaime Garcia’s rehab?

Saw Jaime playing catch the other day, and he’s right on schedule with his rehab. It’ll be awhile before he’s throwing off the mound, but fortunately, he’s had no setbacks at this stage.

What can you tell us about minor league free agents Joe Thurston and Ian Ostlund?

We’re really happy to have both of those guys in the organization, and despite signing as “minor league” free agents, they have the potential to make contributions for our big league club. Thurston is a guy that we were familiar with, and it seems that he’s had the misfortune the last few years of being blocked by MVP caliber 2nd basemen (Utley and Pedroia). He’s performed very well at AAA, and played winter ball in Puerto Rico. Our interest started heating up based on reports from Eduardo Perez and Jose Oquendo, and fortunately I have a good relationship with Joe’s agent and we were able to work out a deal to make him a Cardinal, as there was heavy interest from multiple clubs. Joe’s always been a guy that managers love to have on their clubs, as he plays several positions very well defensively, handles the bat well and plays hard all the time.

Ostlund was a guy that we targeted, literally from Day One. Prior to the first date of minor league free agency, we always put together a target list of players that interest us, and Ian was one of about 3-4 guys that was at the top of our list. We contacted his agent as soon as the bell rang, and Ian was excited about the opportunity for him here with the Cardinals, and we actually were able to wrap up the deal the very first day. The thing that stood out to us about Ian is that he throws strikes and comes after the hitters. While he has success against lefties, he has ample weapons that enable him to get righties out as well, and he’s capable of pitching an inning+ at a time, rather than solely being a LOOGY. He’s got outstanding makeup and we’re excited to have him.

George Kissell, a Cardinal lifer and a mentor to just so many, passed on this last October. Do you have a memory or two of Mr. Kissell that you would like to share with us?

I could go on for hours about the effect that George had on all of us with the Cardinals. For me personally, the first few years I was in player development I would just sit and listen to him talk with our coaches, and try to soak up as much as possible. I was always appreciative that he’d take the time to talk with a young kid like me, as I was beginning to learn how much I didn’t know about the game. The thing to me that stood about George was how he was always learning, and despite probably being as much of an “expert” as anyone could be when it comes to baseball, he was always looking for ways to improve his teaching methods. While he knew there were certain “iron-clad fundamentals”, he was also flexible enough to evolve as the game changed.

For many of my readers, you would have one of the world’s best jobs. How did the job come about, and what all does it entail?

Thanks. It is a great job. I graduated from the University of Massachusetts’ Isenberg School of Management with a degree in sport management, which still shapes the way I think about the industry from an on-field, business and legal standpoint. From there I joined Baseball America. In my time at BA I learned a tremendous amount from Chris Kline before he left to take a job with the Pirates and from Alan Matthews before he accepted a position with the Rockies. And of course Jim Callis and John Manuel, among others, have been instrumental in my professional development as well.

During the regular season, I’m one of the people who help to coordinate our daily minor league coverage. Over the course of the 2008 season I saw players from the Appalachian, South Atlantic, California, Carolina, Southern, Eastern and International Leagues, and that’s not including players I saw at the Futures Game. Some of that is just a quick look at all-star games, but I get to see a large number of games during the season, bounce questions off scouts, managers and other field staff, just keeping an open mind and trying to gain as many perspectives as I can. In the middle of the season, I do the majority of the heavy lifting for our preview and review of the July 2 international signing period, when 16-year-old prospects from outside the United States are eligible to sign with major league organizations. As the season draws to a close, I write two of our league Top 20 prospects lists, and after the season I write two of our organization Top 30 prospects lists (A’s and Indians this year). In the off-season I also try to get going on R&D, either for publication or for internal/personal use to help make better player evaluations.

That sums up the most interesting parts, though there is more to do on a day-by-day basis. It keep me busy, but busy is fun.

I find Jeff Luhnow to be one of the more intriguing figures in all of baseball. What is your take on what he has done with the farm system on a whole, whether it be good/bad/indifferent?

It’s always difficult to tie the success of an organization or one unit of any organization to one person, be it a baseball team or any other company. There are so many people involved in evaluating players and making personnel decisions, and then there are other circumstantial variables (where you pick in the draft, how much money your owner will let you spend) that affect the on-field product, that to tease out the effect of one person can be tricky.

All my hedging aside, I’m impressed with what Luhnow has done in his tenure. The farm system is much healthier than it was four or five years ago. Their prospects generally aren’t going to blow you away with athleticism—that’s something I hear from scouts who cover the Cardinals system—but they have produced and grow on you the more you see them. Is it a top five farm system? Probably not, but the teams that usually have ranked among Baseball America’s top five systems have either gotten there by trading away big leaguers for premium prospects, having perennial elite picks in the draft or gone way over slot for players in the draft. The Cardinals haven’t had any of those circumstantial variables in their favor, yet the Cardinals have built a formidable collection of prospects the last few years.

One of the things the Cardinals did was greatly increase their spending on international players. What can you tell us about some of the new players they signed?

The Cardinals one-two punch of third baseman Roberto De La Cruz and righthander Santo Franco ranks among the best duo of Latin American signings by a team this year. I’m quite high on De La Cruz (you may have also heard him referred to as Robert Pina) based on the reports I’ve heard from scouts, who say that his bat is about as good as anyone’s available in Latin America this year. I don’t know if he’ll stay at third base—maybe you’ve heard that about a Cardinals prospect before—but it sounds like his bat has the potential to be valuable at any position.

Franco is more of a project, but a high-ceiling arm like his good to inject into the system. I don’t know whether he’s going to start next year in the Dominican Summer League or the Gulf Coast League, but even in the DSL it wouldn’t surprise me to see him go out and walk a batter per inning; he’s just raw right now and going to need time to develop as his body changes.

Valera was a big-dollar signing at $500,000, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cardinals push him aggressively—particularly if he starts out with a strong performance—but I don’t think other teams see the projection that the Cardinals probably see in him.

Speaking of international signings, it appears teams you normally would not expect to be major players in that market are doing so – Cincinnati, Oakland, San Diego, St. Louis – what gives?

Each team has its own set of circumstances. The A’s have become more aggressive in all aspects of amateur talent procurement, be it in the draft, the international market or through trade. I don’t know whether we should be expecting the A’s to be power players in the international market every year, but they identified one of the best 16-year-olds that scouts have ever seen and made a committed effort to put another premium pitching prospect in their farm system. The Padres started getting more involved last year and kicked it up another gear this year, and the Reds didn’t have a second-round pick so they had a little extra money to play with, though I think they’ll continue to be major players in Latin America in the future as well.

I think a lot of teams are realizing that an extra $5 million invested in the free agent market can buy you one marginal win for the next season; $5 million invested in Latin America, on the other hand, can bring a substantial ROI for an organization interested in the long-term view. Because of the salary restrictions placed on players through their first six years of service time, the surplus value that Latin American amateurs can provide for a team can be substantial. I’m probably preaching to the choir here—and I’m obviously not saying eschew all major league free agent acquisitions—but I believe you get more bang for your buck in Latin America than you get in the major league free agent market.

Colby Rasmus by all accounts had a down year. Any insight as to why he struggled, and how quickly do you expect him to rebound?

A scout and I had a conversation the other day about the way high-profile prospects develop today compared to 10-20 years ago. His point was that, if Colby Rasmus came through the minor leagues 15 years ago, how many baseball fans—even Cardinals fans—would know who he is? But in 2008, he’s gracing covers of Baseball America, he’s the subject of frequent fodder on FutureRedbirds, Cardinals message boards and any other minor league blog; people have probably paid more attention to Colby Rasmus in the last two years than they have paid to Skip Schumaker. And the same is true for several high-profile prospects, whether it’s Cameron Maybin, Andrew McCutchen or other high-profile prospects who are young for their level and oozing potential but experiencing some adversity. Look, talent is talent, so the best players (who stay healthy) will rise to the top. But prospects today come through the minor leagues with a lot more scrutiny than ever before.

In terms of on-field performance and true ability, I wouldn’t be concerned about Rasmus. All of the tools (except for health) are still there for him to be a star. Every scout I talk to who saw him this year raves about him. The PCL is generally a hitter-friendly league, but as Matt Eddy pointed out in BA earlier this year, Memphis is in the more pitcher-friendly American Conference and is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the PCL. So when you just look at the raw output at see .251/.346/.396, maybe that doesn’t blow some folks away relative to their expectations, but to me that’s a darn impressive performance given the context of his ballpark, his league and his age. I see a guy who controls the strike zone, doesn’t strike out much, gets on base at a good clip, will hit for power, plays good defense in center field and has star potential. So maybe it looks on the surface like he had a down year relative to expectations, but I think in context it was a fine season, and I see no cause for alarm projecting forward.

While we are on the subject of Colby, if you were GM John Mozeliak, would you deem him or any other Cardinal prospect as “untouchable”?

I don’t think an organization can say anyone is untouchable. If you don’t keep an open mind and leave your options open, you never know what offer you might miss. In reality, however, I doubt there is a potential trade for the Cardinals in which trading Colby Rasmus to another organization makes much sense.

Breakout Daryl Jones missed the FSL Top 20, much to the chagrin of much of many of my readers. What is your take on Jones, and why did he miss?

We’re not a group of homogeneous thinkers at BA, and I always try to avoid any opinion cascades, so I guess I might be a little higher on Jones than some others. For me, he’s the No. 3 prospect in the system behind Rasmus and Brett Wallace. Folks I talked to who saw Jones play last year came away underwhelmed in several respects, so he certainly developed in a hurry. He draws walks, he doesn’t strike out too much, he’s got power and he can run well. He put up excellent numbers in the Florida State League as a 21-year-old and had a small amount of initial success upon reaching Double-A. His outfield instincts make him sound like he might be more of a left fielder, which is definitely a concern, but have you seen the major leaguers playing left field these days? It’s a pretty poor collection of fielders, so Jones would negate some of the offensive requirements of left field with what would be above-average defense for a left fielder. There’s a lot to like with his tools and skill set.

Pete Kozma doesn’t seem to get much love with fans, mostly it seems because of the team passing on Porcello. What is your impression of Kozma as a player?

It’s hard sometimes for middle infielders who aren’t flashy athletes or tools monsters to generate a lot of excitement, but Kozma has very impressive baseball skills. Scouts have questions about how his tools and bat speed will play at a higher level, so he’s going to have to pass some tests in Double-A and Triple-A to win over some converts. I look at Kozma and see a player who could potentially hit .270/.350/.430 in the big leagues. That might not get too many folks riled up, but that’s a really good middle infield prospect.

Is there a player that you would compare Brett Wallace to?

I try to avoid player comparisons whenever possible. When scouts make comps, they are usually physical comparisons to give their supervisors who might not have the chance to see them a mental picture of what they look like. When fans see comps, they tend to extrapolate that the player will have the same career arc as his comp and have very similar baseball skills at the same age. But this is a longer shpiel for another day.

If I had to come up with one, I’d say there are some similarities between Wallace and Royals 1B/DH Billy Butler. They have similar builds, both have very good baseball skills and the ability to flat-out hit, though Butler might have a little more raw power and bats righthanded, while Wallace is obviously a lefty. Wallace is a better defender than Butler, but that’s sort of like saying the Whopper has more nutritional value than the Big Mac; the pro scouts I’ve spoken with haven’t been too kind to Wallace’s fielding skills at third base. Maybe he proves them wrong though. There are certainly folks who saw him at ASU who think he has a chance to stick at third.
What do you think Jess Todd’s ultimate role will be?

I see him as a reliever. You don’t see a lot of starters with the kind of short arm action in the back that he has. It has nothing to do with his size, for me.

Suddenly, the system appears to be loaded with power relievers in Perez, Motte, Francisco Samuel and Adam Reifer. To you, which of those players has the greatest upside?

For pure upside, I’ll take Reifer. Make sure you include Luis Perdomo in that conversation as well.

Who in the Cardinals system do you feel is the most overrated? Underrated?

That’s tough, since I work for the company that shapes a fair amount of the rating in the first place! In terms of maybe a player who I think the general blogosphere overrates, Jess Todd comes to mind. I think you can estimate talent fairly well (to a certain extent) for hitters based on performance record, but pitchers require a much more thorough inspection of their scouting reports, which is one reason that I think projection systems always fare better with hitters than for pitchers. There’s stuff to like there with Todd–he’s usually at 89-90 mph with his two-seamer, but he’s got a four-seam fastball up to 94 mph, a good slider and the ability to get some groundballs–so I think he has a role as a big leaguer. I’m just not as enamored as some in the blogosphere seem to be. Maybe I’m wrong, though.

Underrated? Maybe David Freese. He’s not going to get much better, but I think he could be an average big league third baseman right now if given regular big league playing time. He’s the type of player that runs the risk of being labeled a “Four-A” guy just because he’s 25 in Triple-A, but opportunities to play in the big leagues are a scarce resource, and Freese just needs a chance to play. Obviously he wasn’t going to get that opportunity this year with Troy Glaus in his way, and it’s a tough situation for the Cardinals because if they trade him, I’m not sure how much value they could extract from another team. But if he gets a chance to play every day, he has the chance to be an average big league regular, followed by stories in the media about where did this guy come from, how was he not thought of more highly before, etc.

What do you feel the Cardinals’ farm system’s greatest strength is? Greatest weakness?

Their starting pitching doesn’t blow me away. I loved Jaime Garcia a couple years ago before he started coming down with elbow pain, and surprise surprise, it’s turned into a major problem. They are pretty strong at third base with Wallace, Freese, Craig and now De La Cruz, although there are questions about how many of those guys will stick at third base. Center field is good any time you have Colby Rasmus, but Daryl Jones and Jon Jay are good prospects who can play center as well. They also have a stable of relievers—guys you mentioned before—with some crazy power arms. Odds are that one, maybe two of those guys will pan out, but it’s nice to have a few guys in your system who can push 98 mph.