Nieto was someone I was interested in seeing. He pitched well in his (very) short stint with Team Panama in the WBC, and through April-May he had 43 strikeouts to just 9 walks in 42 innings pitched and I wondered how he did it. The wheels seemed to come off for Nieto in June – his K/9 rate fell to 5 per 9, and his walk rate rose to about 4 per 9.

Having seen him pitch in person, I wonder if he’s not the Panamanian PJ Walters. His fastball was below-average at 88 miles per hour, and after the fourth inning he was down to averaging about 86. The pitch didn’t have tons of movement, location is key for Arquimedes.

He did however show pinpoint command and a good change-up, along with a decent breaking ball. The change looked really good at times, getting some batters way out in front. Nieto kept hitters off balance mixing up location and changing speeds, inducing a lot of weak contact and awkward swings. He threw with very little effort but did at times lose his release point, resulting in the three walks. He’s not a real big guy, listed at 6-0, 170. He looks more like 5-10. He did look to be gassed towards that 7th inning, when his control became a little spotty. He walked a batter in the 8th and gave up a towering homer to left field, and that was his night. By about the 5th inning I was pulling hard for him, so the 8th inning meltdown as a real letdown. My lasting impression was that he has a big league change and command, but definitely not a big league fastball. I’m not sure how the upper minors will treat him.

As for others-

Matt Carpenter has a nice, short LH swing, but I’m not sure how much power he will hit for. He changed and threw perfectly to first base on a perfectly hit bunt, a very nice play.  He also has some surprising speed and caught a pitcher napping, leading to a steal.

Jonathan Edwards made a spectacular play to help Nieto preserve the no-no. He ranged far to his left and nearly collided with the CF and made a diving play. If he was faster, he may not have had to dive, but it was impressive. He also displayed an absolute gun in RF. With a runner on third, he came in on a fly ball and threw a bullet to the catcher, the man on third just retreated. Even the fans in the stadium were ooh-ing and ah-ing. At the plate, he looked very tentative, and took several strikes looking (including some third strikes) when he should have been swinging.

That’s about all I have. Last thing I’ll mention is that Jason Stidham has a very unique, open stance. Very squat, but open. He almost looks like he’s sitting on a chair with his legs open, facing the pitcher. I hope he always wears his cup.

Thankfully, there are some hard workers out there like Mike Rogers, who have taken the time to apply some of the advanced metrics to the college game to give us more information on some of these draft picks out of the D-I schools. He’s also been kind enough to share with me his findings. Mike has used Tango’s wOBA (weighted on-base average) for players, as well as speed scores, isolated power, walk rates, strikeout rates and the like to find some of the top college performers in the draft. He’s even applied things like strength of schedule, average conference stats and park factors for context.

Now, I recommend reading the scouting reports first. Tools trump performance in evaluating amateurs. Just because someone is a good college baseball player doesn’t guarantee success at the major league level. But this does tell us more about what these players have done, and one thing we know, the Cardinals highly value track record in many ways.

I don’t want to take up too much time explaining how Mike evaluates players, but you can read more at an article he and Myron Logan penned at Baseball Analysts. He has six tiers of scores in his system: Anything over 122 is elite, anything over 102-121 is considered to be very good, 82-101 as “good”, 61-81 as average/above-average, 41-60 as below-average, 21 or worse is just plain bad.

Speed scores are scaled down and to eyeball it, keep this in mind: -5 is terrible, 0 is bad, 5 is average, 10 is good, 15 is great, 20+ is flat-out burner.

Let’s look at the players the Cardinals drafted early and how rate statistically.

After making adjustments, Stock doesn’t look like someone who has to convert to pitching permanently, especially not for a 19-year old. Stock has shown a pretty good eye at the plate. Comparing ’09 with ’08, it’s obvious Stock was willing to trade contact for power, and that caused him to get out of sorts. He hit .299 in ’08, .236 this past year. To me it sounds like a kid who is trying to develop an identity at the plate after not quite delivering on the hype right away. There are plenty of positives here to cause me to believe he can still be a fine backstop, and there is still plan B should he falter.

Defense is Jackson’s thing, as scouts say his glove would play in the big leagues right now. We know the bat is sketchy at best. Jackson actually hit fairly well in 2008 in the batting average department, but his most recent season rates higher in Mike’s system due to the increased walk rate. If he can continue to control the strike-zone, draw a half-decent amount of walks while playing top notch defense, then you got a pretty nice 5th round pick. Neither Jackson or Stock really wow with the numbers, but both get some bonus points from me for playing tough positions, and playing them well.

Reading the scouting reports, Conley sounds Chris Duncan-esque. Big, tall hitter with pull power, weak contact and defensive skills. He took a step back this year, especially in the strikeout department, and his final rating he went from great to good. Conley tried to slim down and change his approach to an “all-fields” approach, maybe he should retrace his steps.

Stidham seems to be Dan Descalso-like, only with less contact and more power. Good walk rate and he definitely was one of the best college performers this year. He offers little in the way of speed and while he was drafted as a shortstop, second-base seems inevitable. Stidham was abysmal in the Cape Cod League until the playoffs, so there is the concern he’s more of a “ping” hitter, but he sounds like an interesting sleeper. The last time the Cardinals took an elite FSU performer was Shane Robinson, and say what you will about Robinson, he made the big leagues.

I like the hitters the Cardinals drafted early for the most part. You can argue that they should have drafted so-and-so over some of these players, but each player brings some interesting abilities. I think Conley and Stidham are interesting sleepers who could either top out AA or surprise. Getting a role player in the 7th and 8th round is a major success, so it’s not like they have to put on a show. Stock is a bit of a wild card, and despite Jackson’s offensive foibles I love what I hear about his defense and the Cardinals could use some depth at SS.

Bear in mind this statistical break-down is more about what the player has done then what they will do, but hopefully it gives you more context as to how these players performed. Hopefully their success in Division I carries over.

Here’s some quick snap shots of who the Cardinals took on Day 2

Round 4, Pick #129. Scott Bittle, RHP, Ole Miss – 2nd round draft pick of the Yankees last year. Yankees did not sign him due to medical issues with his shoulder. He missed some time this year to the same thing. He’s been mostly a reliever, throws the best cut fastball of any collegiate. Mostly a one pitch pitcher. With that one pitch , he’s posted some ridiculous strikeout numbers –255 in 155.2 innings pitched. Big question is the health of his shoulder, which has been a recurring issue. Senior with injury issues make him an easy sign.

Round 5, Pick #159. Ryan Jackson, SS, U. of Miami FL – All glove, no hit shortstop. Glove may be so good, that he doesn’t have to crack .250 to be valuable. Walk to strikeout ratio 1:1, so he’s shown at least a decent batting eye in college, leading to some reason to believe he might hit a little better than expected. I like this pick.

Round 6, Pick #189. Virgil Hill Jr., OF, Mission JC – Thoroughbred. Both his parents are former Olympians, his mother was a runner, father was a boxer. Dad’s nickname was “Quicksilver”. Hit .462 with ten homers and 27 steals. Video of him here.

Round 7, Pick # 219. Kyle Conley, OF, Washington – 16th round pick of the Dodgers last year. Tied for all time Husky record with 42 homers over his college career. Hit .303/.401/.635 in a tough ballpark for hitters. 6-4, 210 lbs. Pick, power hitting corner outfielder.

Round 8, Pick # 249. Jason Stidham, SS/2B, Florida St. Top notch college performer. Hit .363/.465/.650. Walked 44 times to 35 strikeouts. Has a “gamer” reputation. Bats lefty. Really struggled in the Cape this year, hit just .155 in 103 at-bats but was Co-Playoff MVP for the champion Harwich Mariners.

Round 9, Pick # 279. Nick McCully, RHP, Coastal Carolina. 91-94 MPH fastball, “bulldog” mentality says PGCrosschecker. 5-11, 195. ERA of 2.10, 64 K’s in 73 innings. Collected 8 saves as the team’s closer. Threw fog-shortened perfect game in the Cape. Pretty solid performance in the Cape, striking out 44 in 50 innings pitched and allowed 30 hits with a 1.98 ERA. 88-92 fastball, good slider, strike-thrower.

Round 10, Pick #309. Hector Hernandez, LHP, Puerto Rico Baseball Academy. 6-1, 200 lbs lefty with an 88-90 sinker and good curve. You can see video of him here.

Round 11, Pick #339. Alan Ahmady, 1B, Fresno State. Amazing batting eye just judging by the #’s, with twice as many walks than strikeouts (48/24). OBP .478. Was suspended from team and held out of the WAC Tourney. Not sure why.

Round 12, Pick #369. Patrick Daugherty, LHP, Pearl CC. His uncle is former big leaguer Jay Powell. 6-5, 210 with a fastball and a breaking ball.

Round 13, Pick #399. Matt Carpenter, 3B, Texas Christian – I have a good feeling about this pick. Redshirt senior, sort of reminds me of Freese in that regard, and in that he plays third. Hit .333/.470/.662 with 51 walks to 24 strikeouts. Walked in 19% of his plate appearances. Double-digit basestealer the past two seasons. Plays 3B comfortably. Adjusted for park and schedule, hit for .380 gross production average. (that’s very good) Will get knocked for being older, may have to move quick.

Round 14, Pick #429, Ross Smith, OF, Middle Georgia JC – Son of a Cardinal scout.

Round 15, Pick # 459, David Washington, 1B, University City High, CA. Big, strong kid with some power potential. Get a peak at him here on video. PGCrosschecker says “David Washington is a 2009 1B/OF with a 6’5”, 220 lb. frame from San Diego, CA who attends University City. Big XL frame, big physical player, projectable build, hands work at 1b, arm strength, moves well, good feet around bag, open stance, narrow stance, front foot hitter, glides to ball, bat speed, power potential, projects well.”

Pick 16, Pick #489, Daniel Bibona, LHP, UC Irvine. Generously listed at 6-0, 170, Bibona was one of the NCAA’s top pitchers and was named an All-American. He’s your typical soft-tossing lefty, who likes to mess with hitters with a mixture of an 85-87 fastball, a slider, curve and a slow, sinking changeup. UC Irvine must be the change-up school, Scott Gorgen throws a nasty one, too. This is an excellent pick in the 16th round. I like this quote on Bibona about himself “I love to analyze hitters, try to set them up, throw fastballs in, changeups away, and then change the pattern the next time. After one game I was telling (roommate Eric) Pettis that it was weird, but I felt like I could remember every pitch I threw.” Bibona struck out 108 in 106 with 26 walks allowed and 78 hits. He went 12-1 with a 2.63 ERA. (Love my use of useless stats on draft day) Conceivably he could go back to school for his senior year and hope he gets drafted a little higher next year.

Pick 17, #519, Jonathan Rodriguez, 3B, Manatee JC. Hit .360 average with a .463 OB% with 10 HR in 200 at-bats. Another J-Rod, just look.

Pick 18, #539, Anthony Garcia, C, San Juan Educational School (PR) – Catcher with a power swing. See here.

Pick 19, #569, Travis Tartamella, C, Cal. State Los Angeles – Hit .301/.364/.506. Video here. Bat looks a little slow to me, but I’m not a scout. Criminal Justice major, just thought I’d mention.

Pick 20, #599, Scott Schneider, RHP, St. Mary’s – 67 K’s to 21 BB in 75.1 IP.

Pick 21, #639, Trevor Rosenthal, RHP, Crowley County CC – These JUCO guys are hard to dig up info on. If I tell you he struck out a batter per inning, what would it mean to you?

Pick 22, #669, Joey Bergman, 2B, College of Charleston – Hit .452 (!) with 24 steals and an OBP of .551. Easy schedule, easy park, still not an easy task.

Pick 23, #699, Matt Adams, C, Slippery Rock. You thought Bergman’s numbers were ridonkulous? Adams hit .495/.566/.853 with 31 walks to 17 strikeouts. First team All-America Division II and Player of the Year. Lefty hitter, and a big-un 6-3, 245 pounds. BA says “A burly 6-foot-3, 245-pound slugger, Adams has a good swing and a mature offensive approach to go along with solid-average to plus power. He’s adequate at best defensively at first base, and he’s well-below-average behind the plate.”

That’s all I got for now. We’ll catch you up on the other semi-interesting picks from today and the picks yet to be made tomorrow. Hopefully there’s another Curt Smith or Sam Freeman to be found.

Stidham is a middle infielder and like Conley put up some pretty prodigous numbers. He hit .363/.465/.650, good for a adjusted GPA of .363. Can’t find anything really on him, scouting-wise. He’s a left-handed hitter, and for a middle infielder the numbers are pretty outstanding.