Please click on this poll and enter your input on some of our hitting prospects. This poll is designed to seehow confident Future Redbirds readers are on a prospect’s ability to be an average big leaguer during their first six full seasons. The wOBA presented for each prospect is the minimum based on their defensive position and skill for them to be a 2 WAR player, or a major league average regular. DO NOT CONSIDER IF THE PLAYER IS CURRENTLY BLOCKED. And remember, this is what you think the player is capable of averaging during their first six major league seasons, or in other words, when they are under team control.

For those of you not hip to wOBA, well, get with it. wOBA is the new and improved OPS. Instead of just combining slugging and on-base percentage, wOBA takes the run values of offensive events and then scales it to a rate that is scaled to on-base percentage. You can read up on wOBA here and here and here.

To give you some frame of reference, Albert Pujols had a .449 wOBA last year. NL average is about .335. To give you further frames of reference, Nate McLouth had a .350 wOBA last year. Billy Butler had a .369. Ryan Sweeney had a .330. Cristian Guzman had a .301. Adam LaRoche had a .357. Orlando Hudson had a .342. Got it? Good.

Again, the reason why I picked the wOBA for each prospect is based on the minimum requirement based on their position and defensive skill to be at least two wins above replacement player, or in other words, an average player. For their position, I took the position they currently play, or what Baseball America pegged them for, as in the case of Steve Hill. (Catcher was a nice idea, at least). Their defensive skill is hidden, but it comes from their CHONE projected defensive runs above average. If a projection wasn’t available, I just went with their scouting report and fudged a number. This explains a bit why Ryan Jackson’s offensive threshold is so low.

You can skip any player if you’re not quite sure, but try and answer as many as possible. It’s on a scale of 1-5, 1 being not confident at all, while 5 would be that you feel very confident the player will hit for that minimum batting requirement on average during their first six seasons in the majors.

Thanks for your input.

Poll away.  <——–Um, yeah. Go here.

It was definitely a banner year for the Redbirds, who won the PCL Championship.

• Allen Craig is my favorite monster, as is yours, but if there is a red flag with him other than the fact that the Cardinals do not believe he can play third base, it’s his BB/K ratio.
• I must have been in a cave, but I had no idea David Freese had the type of season he had, even if it was an abbreviated one.  He’s a year older than Craig, and the Cards do believe he can play third base, which is why there’s talk of Freese starting at third base next year and we saw Craig not even receiving a September call up. I haven’t seen both players play at much length, but my judgment is Craig is the superior hitter, albeit not by a lot. If Freese can play third and be at least average while putting together a .320 OBP and .435 SLG, that’s more valuable than a left fielder who would give you a little better production at the plate.
• Tyler Greene quietly had himself one fine season. Among other things, look at that stolen base/caught stealing numbers. The man has some speed and knows how to pick his spots. With the Boogstache firmly holding on  the SS job, it’s nice to know Greene is there as a fallback option and backup. He may fill up a boxscore with steals, doubles, strikeouts and errors; it’s never a dull moment with Greene.
• As for disappointments, look no further than Bryan Anderson and Jon Jay. Jay pulled himself up after a nose-dive of a second half, but it’s hard to see him becoming better than a fourth outfielder at this point. The Cardinal brass bragged about Jay and his potential future batting titles, so that’s not quite the future they had pegged for the quirky outfielder. Anderson was once a Top 100 prospect and has since tanked it hard. Before hitting the DL he was allowing about a stolen base per game and his offense bit the dust. He’s currently hitting for a .630 OPS in 27 at-bats in the Arizona Fall League, for what it’s worth.

Sean “Chone” Smith has applied his TotalZone defensive metric on minor league data for the past few years, although it didn’t become available until last year at MinorLeagueSplits.com. Recently updated data has become available for games up to July 31st. While every defensive metric have their own quirks (especially metrics that depend on scorekeepers coding of batted balls as “line drives” or “fly balls”), the quirks can only be heightened when not dealing with a full season.

I’d trust the scouting reports first, then go with two or better yet three seasons worth of data before making any hard conclusions on a minor leaguer’s glovework. Or better yet, go watch them yourself for a few games.

But for what it’s worth, let’s check out some of the Cardinals’ top prospects and how their TotalZone numbers look. It’s also important to know these numbers translate a better for infielders than outfielders. Let’s start with the up the middle positions first.

Pete Kozma, SS. +3 runs saved above average at SFG, +5 per 150 games. -4 at Palm Beach. Last year Pete was a +11/19 per 150. So his slumping has carried over into his defense, perhaps. He has piled up the errors with 20 in Springfield and 29 total on the season. Tough year for Pete all around, things are not looking great for the former 1st rounder.

Tyler Greene, SS. +4. Knows how to fill up a boxscore with steals, doubles, strikeouts and errors. Slick but inconsistent play, could be our starting SS next year. Glad to see he’s making himself into a decent piece rather than a 1st round bust.

Niko Vasquez, SS. -5, -12 per 150. Ugh. The fall is nearly complete. Niko was a shiny +18 per 150 last year in Johnson City with an even shinier .878 OPS. We thought we had a 3rd round steal. Now he looks like a 3rd round dud.

Donovan Solano, “SS”. I know someone will ask about Donovan because it’s easy to get sucked into how young he has been for his level and he’s hit for a decent albeit empty average. He feels older to me than 21 because he’s been in the system for a long time. -15 runs between Memphis and Springfield. Minus 15. Find someone else to get excited about.

Shane Robinson, CF. Hit Shane. Just hit. +8, +16 per 150.

Jim Rapoport, CF. Did you know he has more walks than strikeouts? 59-56. He’s recently taken on quite an impressively patient approach at the plate. And he’s a plus defender. +5, +8 per 150. Matt Baker told me over Twitter that some scouts compare his glove to Jim Edmonds. No, seriously.

Adron Chambers, CF. Former draft and follow is putting together a nice season at the plate (.292/.376/.414), +4 in CF for Palm Beach.

Daniel Descalso, 2B. +2, +4/150. Not hitting anymore since being called up to Memphis. Our excitement level peaked on this guy about a month ago. I’m still hopeful he makes the adjustment. Scouts think he could be an average 2B in the majors, if not a little above average. Here is what I really don’t understand. Why is Jarrett Hoffpauir hoarding up all the PT at 2B? Hoff is having a nice rebound year at the plate with his .887 OPS. But he’s 26 years old and looks more like a utility player than a regular. Hoff is a -4/-10 and was a -10 last year as well. He’s clearly the inferior prospect, if you can call him a prospect at his age, and yet Descalso gets regulated to the team’s utility infielder upon being promoted? Send him back down to Springfield and let him play 2B there.

Aaron Luna, 2B. Everyone’s favorite new sleeper is a -1 at 2B, not too bad. I was told by one official that he “has a ways to go defensively at 2B”.

Brett Wallace, 3B. Just be honest, you scrolled to find B-Dub first. +2 between Memphis, Springfield and *sigh* Sacramento. That’s right, he hasn’t been a total butcher at 3B. In fact, he’s been a little above average.  Maybe he could have stuck…/stirring pot.

Hobbled DJ Tools, LF +2, +5 per 150 playing with a bum knee. Last year at two levels was elite: +15.

Tyler Henley, RF +3, +6 per 150. Good season all around. Can’t wait to see what he does in Memphis next year.

Jon Jay, OF +3 in CF, +6 in LF. After struggling much of the season, in the last 28 days he’s hitting .296/.348/.444.

Shane Peterson, RF +5 between SFG and PB. Since the trade, Peterson is hitting .340/.390/.547 for Double-A Midland.

(Hitting stats current through Saturday)

First of all, congrats on winning the Harry Mitauer Good Guy Award at the Baseball Writers Dinner. That’s one award I’d say the writers got right.

Thanks Erik. As I mentioned the night I received it, with so many good people working around the stadium, I would have been flattered merely to have my name come up in the discussion, let alone being named the recipient. But it’s easy to be in a good mood when doing something I love on a daily basis.

Baseball America ranked the Cardinals’ system the 8th best in baseball. What is your take the ranking?

We try not to get too wrapped up in what others say about our system, since there are so many variables that can affect a ranking. Even when our rankings were not as high, we were able to have players like Albert and Yadi come through the system, and turned other of our younger prospects into Major League talent through trades. But I think the feeling is universal within our organization that we have much more depth and significantly more players that can be realistically projected to have a Major League future than we had in prior years. I think the rankings are probably a reflection of that. But I don’t want to sound disingenuous by saying that I agree with the rankings when they rate us highly and disagreed when we were ranked lower!

The organization has not been shy about promoting players as of late. What are some of the factors that go into determining whether or not a prospect is ready to be moved up to a different level?

A lot of different things go into making that determination. Obviously, success at a lower level is often a big part of it, since if a player is struggling at a lower level, moving him up likely would just make it even tougher for him. If it’s a player that we consider one of our better prospects, then making sure that there’s an opening where he’ll get ample playing time is another priority, especially if we’ve already got a prospect playing the same position at that level. Almost every time we make a decision about moving a player up (or down), it will involve not only Jeff Luhnow and me, but also the managers for the teams involved as well as our hitting/pitching coordinators. Getting the perspective of our guys in the field is critical, since there’s often something that they’ve picked up on that could affect that player’s chances of success at the next level that isn’t necessarily reflected in the stats or in our game reports.

How long does it take to go about making roster assignments for the minor league teams to start the season?

It’s a lengthy process, and one that involves a lot of people. All of us have our “projected” rosters, and many of us were already projecting 2009 rosters while the 2008 season was going on, but there are so many variables that the actual rosters can often wind up bearing little resemblance to the projected rosters. Ideally, it’s because a player shows up being greatly improved over the prior year – however, other times it may be due to injuries or under performance. But we’ll have two days of meetings with our staff prior to the start of camp to discuss players and rosters, and then we’ll have numerous meetings throughout spring training, making decisions about who makes which club, who remains at Extended Spring Training, and who ultimately gets sent home. Oftentimes, we’re in a holding pattern with our rosters depending on what happens at the Major League level, so occasionally there are times where we have to react quickly to an unexpected player dropping down to our AAA roster, but there are many hours spent making the decisions that go into forming our opening day rosters.

We’ve seen a lot of positional movement with players lately, whether it be a no-hit catcher moving to the bullpen, or a certain scrappy outfielder moving to a spot of real need. Is this a paradigm the Cardinals are going to continue utilizing, heavily moving forward whenever there is a surplus at one position or a deficiency at another?

I think it often makes sense for a player to at least explore anything they can do to give themselves as much versatility as possible, especially since it’s often impossible to project where an opening may suddenly occur at the major league level. If a player has at least shown the ability to adequately handle multiple positions, it allows him to be considered as a candidate for a variety of roles, rather than being locked in exclusively at one spot. Additionally, if a player was drafted at an “offensive” position such as LF or first base, if it turns out that he has the ability to play a more challenging defensive position, that can turn him into a much more valuable commodity. One example of that is Tony Cruz, who is a solid defensive third baseman, but has impressed with his ability behind the plate. It’s much tougher to find catchers with Tony’s offensive capabilities than it is to find similar hitting third baseman, so by having Tony working on his catching he is able to make himself much more valuable, as well as giving him multiple ways to move through the system.

What do the Cardinals hope to improve on in terms of managing the minors in 2009 compared to 2008?

It’s hard to get into too many specifics, but our goal is to always have somebody ready within our farm system when there’s a hole or a need at the Major League level. There’s nothing wrong with signing players from outside the organization at times, but we always want that to be something that is done by choice, and not due to a lack of internal options. Ultimately the goal of the farm system is pretty simple – to continue to increase the quantity and quality of players making their way to St. Louis.

I’m sure you’re going get asked this a few bazillion times this spring, but how is Brett Wallace looking at the hot corner?

Brett may be unlikely to ever look like a prototypical third baseman, but the bottom line is that he makes the plays, has good hands, and despite an unusual throwing motion his arm is ML average at worst. Pop Warner, who was his manager both at Springfield and in the Arizona Fall League, was pleased with the progress that Brett made during his time in Arizona and at this point there’s no reason to believe that Brett couldn’t remain as a third baseman in the future.

Daryl Jones and Jess Todd won the organization’s pitcher and player of the year award, taking two different paths. Jones languished Low A before coming on like a house of fire, while Todd just rocketed through the system in his first full season. Please give me your thoughts on those two, and do you have a prediction as to who could be this year’s Daryl Jones (breakout hitter) or Jess Todd (fast-moving pitcher)?

Daryl really wasn’t a big surprise to me, as he’s always been a very coachable, intelligent kid, who really just needed to continue to get experience playing baseball. He’s always had the tools, but was a bit raw, having played multiple sports in high school. It’s always important to be patient with young players whenever possible, as evidenced by guys like Joe Mather and Chris Duncan, who both had their share of struggles in A-ball.

Jess was much more polished coming into pro ball, having had three years of college experience, but I don’t think anyone expected him to wind up in AAA by year’s end. He’s a good example of what can happen when a pitcher has excellent command of his fastball and breaking pitch, and pitches with poise. While he moved rapidly through the system, he proved at each stop that he had mastered the level, and once a player has accomplished that, we’re not reluctant to give him new challenges.

As far as names for this year, guys like Tommy Pham, Jon Edwards and Beau Riportella have shown flashes of their ability in the past and certainly have ample tools to make big jumps once everything clicks for them. Again, patience is key for those type of guys – even though they’ve been a part of the organization for several years, Pham and Edwards will play all year at age 21, while Riportella doesn’t turn 21 until August.

For candidates for fast-moving pitchers, guys like Lance Lynn, Adam Reifer and Sam Freeman come to mind, but there’s quite a few potential candidates that could fall into that category. We don’t set out with the intention for guys to make huge jumps within one season, but if warranted, we wouldn’t shy away from it either.

Letting Luis Perdomo go unprotected from the Rule 5 draft left a few of us fans scratching our heads. Can you help us understand the rationale behind that decision?

John Mozeliak uses a lot of different sources in making the final determination about who to place on the 40-man roster, including internal scouting reports from our own staff members, as well as weighing areas of organizational depth and weakness. We place more weight on the likelihood of a Rule 5 eligible player actually sticking with the drafting club than we do on the chances of selection alone. While it’s certainly understandable how Perdomo would be attractive to another organization, we faced the same questions a few years back when Tyler Johnson was selected by Oakland from us in the Rule 5 draft after pitching the entire year at AA. We felt that Perdomo was more like Juan Mateo, who we selected a few years back in the Rule 5, in terms of being a future major leaguer, but not quite being ready at this stage of his career.

With right handed relief being one of our biggest areas of organizational depth, placing Perdomo on the 40-man roster would have meant starting the clock on his options this spring. With the RH relievers we have ahead of him in the organization, it likely would be a couple years before he’d be in the majors with us, and saving an option year could turn out to be necessary down the road.

Jon Jay fascinates me. He’s done nothing but hit, and according some of the new  metrics available, he’s also an excellent fielder. What do you feel his upside is?

Jon has somewhat quietly moved through the organization, in part because much of the focus has (deservedly) been on Colby Rasmus, but he’s a very polished hitter, who has always hit for average and has a little more pop than people give him credit for. Defensively, he’s got the range and hands to play CF if needed, however if there’s no opening in CF, he could adequately handle a corner spot. As far as upside, there’s nothing that I’ve seen that indicates he couldn’t be a solid major league outfielder in the future.

Tyler Greene had an excellent showing the AFL. Do you believe has turned the corner?

I think so – the one thing I’ve noticed about Tyler is that he now plays with much more confidence than he did earlier in his career, and that he realizes that he’s capable of competing and succeeding against quality competition. He’s not a finished product yet, but he’s made big strides in the last year and offers an exciting blend of power, speed and defense.

I know it’s extremely early in his career, but how excited should we be about Roberto de la Cruz?

I think he’s a very exciting prospect. I haven’t seen much of him yet personally, but our guys who got to spend a lot of time with him during Instructional League came away very impressed. He’s our highest profile July 2 signee, and by all accounts, he seems to be worthy of that billing.

We try to assume that no news is good news with injuries, but can we get an update on Jaime Garcia’s rehab?

Saw Jaime playing catch the other day, and he’s right on schedule with his rehab. It’ll be awhile before he’s throwing off the mound, but fortunately, he’s had no setbacks at this stage.

What can you tell us about minor league free agents Joe Thurston and Ian Ostlund?

We’re really happy to have both of those guys in the organization, and despite signing as “minor league” free agents, they have the potential to make contributions for our big league club. Thurston is a guy that we were familiar with, and it seems that he’s had the misfortune the last few years of being blocked by MVP caliber 2nd basemen (Utley and Pedroia). He’s performed very well at AAA, and played winter ball in Puerto Rico. Our interest started heating up based on reports from Eduardo Perez and Jose Oquendo, and fortunately I have a good relationship with Joe’s agent and we were able to work out a deal to make him a Cardinal, as there was heavy interest from multiple clubs. Joe’s always been a guy that managers love to have on their clubs, as he plays several positions very well defensively, handles the bat well and plays hard all the time.

Ostlund was a guy that we targeted, literally from Day One. Prior to the first date of minor league free agency, we always put together a target list of players that interest us, and Ian was one of about 3-4 guys that was at the top of our list. We contacted his agent as soon as the bell rang, and Ian was excited about the opportunity for him here with the Cardinals, and we actually were able to wrap up the deal the very first day. The thing that stood out to us about Ian is that he throws strikes and comes after the hitters. While he has success against lefties, he has ample weapons that enable him to get righties out as well, and he’s capable of pitching an inning+ at a time, rather than solely being a LOOGY. He’s got outstanding makeup and we’re excited to have him.

George Kissell, a Cardinal lifer and a mentor to just so many, passed on this last October. Do you have a memory or two of Mr. Kissell that you would like to share with us?

I could go on for hours about the effect that George had on all of us with the Cardinals. For me personally, the first few years I was in player development I would just sit and listen to him talk with our coaches, and try to soak up as much as possible. I was always appreciative that he’d take the time to talk with a young kid like me, as I was beginning to learn how much I didn’t know about the game. The thing to me that stood about George was how he was always learning, and despite probably being as much of an “expert” as anyone could be when it comes to baseball, he was always looking for ways to improve his teaching methods. While he knew there were certain “iron-clad fundamentals”, he was also flexible enough to evolve as the game changed.

For many of my readers, you would have one of the world’s best jobs. How did the job come about, and what all does it entail?

Thanks. It is a great job. I graduated from the University of Massachusetts’ Isenberg School of Management with a degree in sport management, which still shapes the way I think about the industry from an on-field, business and legal standpoint. From there I joined Baseball America. In my time at BA I learned a tremendous amount from Chris Kline before he left to take a job with the Pirates and from Alan Matthews before he accepted a position with the Rockies. And of course Jim Callis and John Manuel, among others, have been instrumental in my professional development as well.

During the regular season, I’m one of the people who help to coordinate our daily minor league coverage. Over the course of the 2008 season I saw players from the Appalachian, South Atlantic, California, Carolina, Southern, Eastern and International Leagues, and that’s not including players I saw at the Futures Game. Some of that is just a quick look at all-star games, but I get to see a large number of games during the season, bounce questions off scouts, managers and other field staff, just keeping an open mind and trying to gain as many perspectives as I can. In the middle of the season, I do the majority of the heavy lifting for our preview and review of the July 2 international signing period, when 16-year-old prospects from outside the United States are eligible to sign with major league organizations. As the season draws to a close, I write two of our league Top 20 prospects lists, and after the season I write two of our organization Top 30 prospects lists (A’s and Indians this year). In the off-season I also try to get going on R&D, either for publication or for internal/personal use to help make better player evaluations.

That sums up the most interesting parts, though there is more to do on a day-by-day basis. It keep me busy, but busy is fun.

I find Jeff Luhnow to be one of the more intriguing figures in all of baseball. What is your take on what he has done with the farm system on a whole, whether it be good/bad/indifferent?

It’s always difficult to tie the success of an organization or one unit of any organization to one person, be it a baseball team or any other company. There are so many people involved in evaluating players and making personnel decisions, and then there are other circumstantial variables (where you pick in the draft, how much money your owner will let you spend) that affect the on-field product, that to tease out the effect of one person can be tricky.

All my hedging aside, I’m impressed with what Luhnow has done in his tenure. The farm system is much healthier than it was four or five years ago. Their prospects generally aren’t going to blow you away with athleticism—that’s something I hear from scouts who cover the Cardinals system—but they have produced and grow on you the more you see them. Is it a top five farm system? Probably not, but the teams that usually have ranked among Baseball America’s top five systems have either gotten there by trading away big leaguers for premium prospects, having perennial elite picks in the draft or gone way over slot for players in the draft. The Cardinals haven’t had any of those circumstantial variables in their favor, yet the Cardinals have built a formidable collection of prospects the last few years.

One of the things the Cardinals did was greatly increase their spending on international players. What can you tell us about some of the new players they signed?

The Cardinals one-two punch of third baseman Roberto De La Cruz and righthander Santo Franco ranks among the best duo of Latin American signings by a team this year. I’m quite high on De La Cruz (you may have also heard him referred to as Robert Pina) based on the reports I’ve heard from scouts, who say that his bat is about as good as anyone’s available in Latin America this year. I don’t know if he’ll stay at third base—maybe you’ve heard that about a Cardinals prospect before—but it sounds like his bat has the potential to be valuable at any position.

Franco is more of a project, but a high-ceiling arm like his good to inject into the system. I don’t know whether he’s going to start next year in the Dominican Summer League or the Gulf Coast League, but even in the DSL it wouldn’t surprise me to see him go out and walk a batter per inning; he’s just raw right now and going to need time to develop as his body changes.

Valera was a big-dollar signing at $500,000, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cardinals push him aggressively—particularly if he starts out with a strong performance—but I don’t think other teams see the projection that the Cardinals probably see in him.

Speaking of international signings, it appears teams you normally would not expect to be major players in that market are doing so – Cincinnati, Oakland, San Diego, St. Louis – what gives?

Each team has its own set of circumstances. The A’s have become more aggressive in all aspects of amateur talent procurement, be it in the draft, the international market or through trade. I don’t know whether we should be expecting the A’s to be power players in the international market every year, but they identified one of the best 16-year-olds that scouts have ever seen and made a committed effort to put another premium pitching prospect in their farm system. The Padres started getting more involved last year and kicked it up another gear this year, and the Reds didn’t have a second-round pick so they had a little extra money to play with, though I think they’ll continue to be major players in Latin America in the future as well.

I think a lot of teams are realizing that an extra $5 million invested in the free agent market can buy you one marginal win for the next season; $5 million invested in Latin America, on the other hand, can bring a substantial ROI for an organization interested in the long-term view. Because of the salary restrictions placed on players through their first six years of service time, the surplus value that Latin American amateurs can provide for a team can be substantial. I’m probably preaching to the choir here—and I’m obviously not saying eschew all major league free agent acquisitions—but I believe you get more bang for your buck in Latin America than you get in the major league free agent market.

Colby Rasmus by all accounts had a down year. Any insight as to why he struggled, and how quickly do you expect him to rebound?

A scout and I had a conversation the other day about the way high-profile prospects develop today compared to 10-20 years ago. His point was that, if Colby Rasmus came through the minor leagues 15 years ago, how many baseball fans—even Cardinals fans—would know who he is? But in 2008, he’s gracing covers of Baseball America, he’s the subject of frequent fodder on FutureRedbirds, Cardinals message boards and any other minor league blog; people have probably paid more attention to Colby Rasmus in the last two years than they have paid to Skip Schumaker. And the same is true for several high-profile prospects, whether it’s Cameron Maybin, Andrew McCutchen or other high-profile prospects who are young for their level and oozing potential but experiencing some adversity. Look, talent is talent, so the best players (who stay healthy) will rise to the top. But prospects today come through the minor leagues with a lot more scrutiny than ever before.

In terms of on-field performance and true ability, I wouldn’t be concerned about Rasmus. All of the tools (except for health) are still there for him to be a star. Every scout I talk to who saw him this year raves about him. The PCL is generally a hitter-friendly league, but as Matt Eddy pointed out in BA earlier this year, Memphis is in the more pitcher-friendly American Conference and is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the PCL. So when you just look at the raw output at see .251/.346/.396, maybe that doesn’t blow some folks away relative to their expectations, but to me that’s a darn impressive performance given the context of his ballpark, his league and his age. I see a guy who controls the strike zone, doesn’t strike out much, gets on base at a good clip, will hit for power, plays good defense in center field and has star potential. So maybe it looks on the surface like he had a down year relative to expectations, but I think in context it was a fine season, and I see no cause for alarm projecting forward.

While we are on the subject of Colby, if you were GM John Mozeliak, would you deem him or any other Cardinal prospect as “untouchable”?

I don’t think an organization can say anyone is untouchable. If you don’t keep an open mind and leave your options open, you never know what offer you might miss. In reality, however, I doubt there is a potential trade for the Cardinals in which trading Colby Rasmus to another organization makes much sense.

Breakout Daryl Jones missed the FSL Top 20, much to the chagrin of much of many of my readers. What is your take on Jones, and why did he miss?

We’re not a group of homogeneous thinkers at BA, and I always try to avoid any opinion cascades, so I guess I might be a little higher on Jones than some others. For me, he’s the No. 3 prospect in the system behind Rasmus and Brett Wallace. Folks I talked to who saw Jones play last year came away underwhelmed in several respects, so he certainly developed in a hurry. He draws walks, he doesn’t strike out too much, he’s got power and he can run well. He put up excellent numbers in the Florida State League as a 21-year-old and had a small amount of initial success upon reaching Double-A. His outfield instincts make him sound like he might be more of a left fielder, which is definitely a concern, but have you seen the major leaguers playing left field these days? It’s a pretty poor collection of fielders, so Jones would negate some of the offensive requirements of left field with what would be above-average defense for a left fielder. There’s a lot to like with his tools and skill set.

Pete Kozma doesn’t seem to get much love with fans, mostly it seems because of the team passing on Porcello. What is your impression of Kozma as a player?

It’s hard sometimes for middle infielders who aren’t flashy athletes or tools monsters to generate a lot of excitement, but Kozma has very impressive baseball skills. Scouts have questions about how his tools and bat speed will play at a higher level, so he’s going to have to pass some tests in Double-A and Triple-A to win over some converts. I look at Kozma and see a player who could potentially hit .270/.350/.430 in the big leagues. That might not get too many folks riled up, but that’s a really good middle infield prospect.

Is there a player that you would compare Brett Wallace to?

I try to avoid player comparisons whenever possible. When scouts make comps, they are usually physical comparisons to give their supervisors who might not have the chance to see them a mental picture of what they look like. When fans see comps, they tend to extrapolate that the player will have the same career arc as his comp and have very similar baseball skills at the same age. But this is a longer shpiel for another day.

If I had to come up with one, I’d say there are some similarities between Wallace and Royals 1B/DH Billy Butler. They have similar builds, both have very good baseball skills and the ability to flat-out hit, though Butler might have a little more raw power and bats righthanded, while Wallace is obviously a lefty. Wallace is a better defender than Butler, but that’s sort of like saying the Whopper has more nutritional value than the Big Mac; the pro scouts I’ve spoken with haven’t been too kind to Wallace’s fielding skills at third base. Maybe he proves them wrong though. There are certainly folks who saw him at ASU who think he has a chance to stick at third.
What do you think Jess Todd’s ultimate role will be?

I see him as a reliever. You don’t see a lot of starters with the kind of short arm action in the back that he has. It has nothing to do with his size, for me.

Suddenly, the system appears to be loaded with power relievers in Perez, Motte, Francisco Samuel and Adam Reifer. To you, which of those players has the greatest upside?

For pure upside, I’ll take Reifer. Make sure you include Luis Perdomo in that conversation as well.

Who in the Cardinals system do you feel is the most overrated? Underrated?

That’s tough, since I work for the company that shapes a fair amount of the rating in the first place! In terms of maybe a player who I think the general blogosphere overrates, Jess Todd comes to mind. I think you can estimate talent fairly well (to a certain extent) for hitters based on performance record, but pitchers require a much more thorough inspection of their scouting reports, which is one reason that I think projection systems always fare better with hitters than for pitchers. There’s stuff to like there with Todd–he’s usually at 89-90 mph with his two-seamer, but he’s got a four-seam fastball up to 94 mph, a good slider and the ability to get some groundballs–so I think he has a role as a big leaguer. I’m just not as enamored as some in the blogosphere seem to be. Maybe I’m wrong, though.

Underrated? Maybe David Freese. He’s not going to get much better, but I think he could be an average big league third baseman right now if given regular big league playing time. He’s the type of player that runs the risk of being labeled a “Four-A” guy just because he’s 25 in Triple-A, but opportunities to play in the big leagues are a scarce resource, and Freese just needs a chance to play. Obviously he wasn’t going to get that opportunity this year with Troy Glaus in his way, and it’s a tough situation for the Cardinals because if they trade him, I’m not sure how much value they could extract from another team. But if he gets a chance to play every day, he has the chance to be an average big league regular, followed by stories in the media about where did this guy come from, how was he not thought of more highly before, etc.

What do you feel the Cardinals’ farm system’s greatest strength is? Greatest weakness?

Their starting pitching doesn’t blow me away. I loved Jaime Garcia a couple years ago before he started coming down with elbow pain, and surprise surprise, it’s turned into a major problem. They are pretty strong at third base with Wallace, Freese, Craig and now De La Cruz, although there are questions about how many of those guys will stick at third base. Center field is good any time you have Colby Rasmus, but Daryl Jones and Jon Jay are good prospects who can play center as well. They also have a stable of relievers—guys you mentioned before—with some crazy power arms. Odds are that one, maybe two of those guys will pan out, but it’s nice to have a few guys in your system who can push 98 mph.