Billy Beane may have the last laugh yet. Word is Mo may be willing to part with our Beloved Walrus to get Matt Holliday. This is simple math, people.
Brett Wallace is one of the most valuable commodities in all of baseball. Baseball America recently ranked him the 24th best prospect in baseball. According to Victor Wang’s studies, that means his surplus value is about $25 million bucks. Matt Holliday is probably worth a win or two (closer to two) to the Cardinals, or about $7-9 million. He stands to get paid $6 million more for the rest of the season. He’s going to be a Type A free agent, and the general accepted value is a 1st round pick is worth about $5 mil. So Holliday’s total value is something around $8 million.
$25 million > $8 million.
You don’t trade a top 25 prospect for a rental. Period.
(Thanks to Sky for the inspiration).
Update: According to playoff odds, Holliday increases the Cardinals odds of reaching the playoffs by 15%, and up to 45%. So he’s no guarantee to vault the Cards into October. Sure helps, but no guarantee. According to Jonah Keri, a playoff appearance is worth $25 million. So $25*.15 and figuring inflation and you got another $4M. $25M is still greater than $12M. Hat tip, vivaelpujols.