Posts Tagged “Ryan Jackson”

It’s not a secret that the Cardinals major league middle infield has been a struggle for them. Last season, they eyed a trade deadline upgrade at shortstop to replace Ryan Therior with Rafael Furcal. This season has seen a revolving door of players at second base including Daniel Descalso, Tyler Greene, Matt Carpenter and Skip Schumaker. All of those players have their own warts at the position and the Cardinals are most likely still on the lookout for a long term answer at second.

The two most touted prospects for the Cardinals middle infield are Kolten Wong in AA and Ryan Jackson in AAA. How are they doing?

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(azruavatar note: This post was written on June 3rd and then the draft happened. As we continue to wind down our draft posts, we’re moving back into our more traditional writing of current prospects. Andy takes a look at Ryan Jackson, a superb gloveman, and wonders what our expectations should be for him when he’s wearing his batting gloves rather than fielding. All stats are taken as of June 3rd.)

Combining an already well-regarded glove with league average offensive production (98 wOBA+) in double-A Springfield last season, Ryan Jackson was ranked 12th in Future Redbirds’ 2012 Top 20 Prospect List compiled by Jeff and azruavatar. As far as I can tell, he had been unranked one year earlier. But Jackson didn’t only find himself on our radars this season as John Sickels ranked him 15th and Kevin Goldstein ranked him 11th.
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This is the consolidated top 20 list rolled out last week.

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The Cardinals are sending 7 players to the Arizona Fall League this fall (which is also known as “Prospect Finishing School”:

1B Matt Adams

OF Oscar Taveras (will be second youngest player in the league)

SS Ryan Jackson

RHP Keith Butler

LHP Justin Wright

RHP David Kopp

LHP Tyler Lyons

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Due to popular demand, I now present you Part 2 of the updated depth chart for the top position player in the Cardinals system for each respective position.  In respect of cariocacardinal’s insistent pleadings to PLEEAAAAAASE define what I’m trying to do, each prospect I list represents who I believe to be the top prospect at each position who has the best shot to make the most impact in the major leagues.

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I’m sorry that we skipped the FR Reader rankings this year. That was lame of me. In order to make it up to you, the reader, I thought we’d try something a little different. This idea was inspired by Bryan Smith’s article at FanGraphs and some of the cool stuff he does. (Bryan is very smart).

Please click on this poll and enter your input on some of our hitting prospects. This poll is designed to seehow confident Future Redbirds readers are on a prospect’s ability to be an average big leaguer during their first six full seasons. The wOBA presented for each prospect is the minimum based on their defensive position and skill for them to be a 2 WAR player, or a major league average regular. DO NOT CONSIDER IF THE PLAYER IS CURRENTLY BLOCKED. And remember, this is what you think the player is capable of averaging during their first six major league seasons, or in other words, when they are under team control.

For those of you not hip to wOBA, well, get with it. wOBA is the new and improved OPS. Instead of just combining slugging and on-base percentage, wOBA takes the run values of offensive events and then scales it to a rate that is scaled to on-base percentage. You can read up on wOBA here and here and here.

To give you some frame of reference, Albert Pujols had a .449 wOBA last year. NL average is about .335. To give you further frames of reference, Nate McLouth had a .350 wOBA last year. Billy Butler had a .369. Ryan Sweeney had a .330. Cristian Guzman had a .301. Adam LaRoche had a .357. Orlando Hudson had a .342. Got it? Good.

Again, the reason why I picked the wOBA for each prospect is based on the minimum requirement based on their position and defensive skill to be at least two wins above replacement player, or in other words, an average player. For their position, I took the position they currently play, or what Baseball America pegged them for, as in the case of Steve Hill. (Catcher was a nice idea, at least). Their defensive skill is hidden, but it comes from their CHONE projected defensive runs above average. If a projection wasn’t available, I just went with their scouting report and fudged a number. This explains a bit why Ryan Jackson’s offensive threshold is so low.

You can skip any player if you’re not quite sure, but try and answer as many as possible. It’s on a scale of 1-5, 1 being not confident at all, while 5 would be that you feel very confident the player will hit for that minimum batting requirement on average during their first six seasons in the majors.

Thanks for your input.

Poll away.  <——–Um, yeah. Go here.

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Lookin’ at a whole lot of ‘meh’. Kyle Conley posted some video game numbers, putting himself on the prospect map. Maybe not a whole lot to hyperventilate over after that. Matt Adams carried over his brilliance from Johnson City. Decent performance by Ryde Rodriguez, but he was demoted from the QC and his BB/K rate is rather troubling. Ryan Jackson was more of an all-glove, no-hit shortstop than I would have hoped for.

Niko Vasquez…sigh.

Rk Age PA R SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB
1 Kyle Conley 124 21 2 3 13 20 .385 .452 .752 1.204 82
2 Matt Carpenter 23 37 9 0 1 4 2 .469 .541 .563 1.103 18
3 Matthew Adams 20 142 16 0 0 11 21 .346 .394 .523 .917 68
4 Ryde Rodriguez 21 174 18 1 0 6 34 .311 .339 .473 .812 79
5 Alan Ahmady 21 296 46 2 3 47 52 .292 .407 .391 .798 95
6 Xavier Scruggs 21 171 21 1 1 21 48 .234 .345 .428 .773 62
7 D’ Marcus Ingram 21 158 19 18 2 17 20 .290 .372 .384 .756 53
8 Jack Cawley 23 36 5 1 0 6 5 .300 .417 .333 .750 10
9 Devin Goodwin 22 239 31 2 2 25 36 .239 .316 .383 .699 80
10 Hector Alvarez 22 5 0 0 0 1 2 .250 .400 .250 .650 1
11 Jonathan Edwards 21 119 11 1 0 5 46 .232 .269 .339 .608 38
12 Nico Vasquez 20 279 19 1 1 26 56 .209 .283 .293 .576 73
13 Luis De La Cruz 20 171 20 4 2 10 28 .220 .275 .283 .558 45
14 Edwin Gomez 21 9 0 0 0 0 3 .222 .222 .333 .556 3
15 Michael Swinson 19 108 13 4 1 11 24 .196 .279 .272 .551 25
16 Ivan Castro 21 153 20 1 0 8 36 .207 .248 .297 .545 43
17 Ryan Jackson 21 283 29 4 3 29 37 .216 .297 .241 .538 59
18 Beau Riportella 20 134 16 6 1 12 28 .191 .269 .252 .521 29
19 Jairo Martinez 22 105 11 1 0 6 33 .177 .229 .240 .468 23
20 Travis Mitchell 21 63 4 3 2 4 21 .155 .206 .172 .379 10
21 Guillermo Toribio 22 46 4 0 2 2 12 .159 .196 .182 .377 8
23 Players 20.9 2852 333 52 24 264 564 .249 .321 .357 .678 904
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/8/2009.

League average batting line is pretty soft for the NYPL — .245/.320/.345. Keep this in mind when we look at the pitcher’s next.

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These days, we’re spoiled for statistical information on our favorite big league players, and it’s trickled down to the minors as well. But we just don’t see a lot of quantitative analysis on college players around the ‘net. It’s a shame, too, because when hearing name after name being called on draft day, there’s little we know about the players who are being called and how they truly performed against their peers. Sure, the top players get some ink, but after the first couple of rounds we’re left with some superficial college stats that may look good on the surface but tell us nothing about the context they were in.

Thankfully, there are some hard workers out there like Mike Rogers, who have taken the time to apply some of the advanced metrics to the college game to give us more information on some of these draft picks out of the D-I schools. He’s also been kind enough to share with me his findings. Mike has used Tango’s wOBA (weighted on-base average) for players, as well as speed scores, isolated power, walk rates, strikeout rates and the like to find some of the top college performers in the draft. He’s even applied things like strength of schedule, average conference stats and park factors for context.

Now, I recommend reading the scouting reports first. Tools trump performance in evaluating amateurs. Just because someone is a good college baseball player doesn’t guarantee success at the major league level. But this does tell us more about what these players have done, and one thing we know, the Cardinals highly value track record in many ways.

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Quick announcement: I’ll be on UCB Radio tonight at 9:30 to talk all things draft.

Here’s some quick snap shots of who the Cardinals took on Day 2
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Says BA’s draft blog:

The Cardinals took injured Ole Miss righthander Scott Bittle, who has a tear (or strain) in his right shoulder capsule, depending on who you talk to. When healthy, though, Bittle is ridiculously good, with a premium mid-80s cutter.

Bittle struck out 16 per nine innings last season, 14 per nine this past season. He was drafted by the Yankees last year, in the 2nd round, but the Yankees didn’t sign him once they got the medicals on his shoulder. If he’s healthy, great, but I’m not real thrilled with this pick, as my off the cuff reaction. Yet another reliever.

Here’s Bryan Smith’s take:

Scott Bittle in the fourth round to the Cards is really interesting. The Rebels had to shut him down this year with an arm injury, but in the weeks prior, he was as dominant as anyone in the nation. He has a nasty cutter that makes him hell on right-handers, and he’s a senior: cheap sign. I like that pick, although I wonder if they could have got it off 1-2 rounds later.

Ryan Jackson is a premium glove with a horrid bat. He’s the NCAA’s answer to Adam Everett. He did hit .360 as a sophomore, so maybe it was just a bad year. BA ranked him their 80th best draft available player. Defense is often underrated, so I think this is an underrated pick.


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