Sean “Chone” Smith has applied his TotalZone defensive metric on minor league data for the past few years, although it didn’t become available until last year at MinorLeagueSplits.com. Recently updated data has become available for games up to July 31st. While every defensive metric have their own quirks (especially metrics that depend on scorekeepers coding of batted balls as “line drives” or “fly balls”), the quirks can only be heightened when not dealing with a full season.
I’d trust the scouting reports first, then go with two or better yet three seasons worth of data before making any hard conclusions on a minor leaguer’s glovework. Or better yet, go watch them yourself for a few games.
But for what it’s worth, let’s check out some of the Cardinals’ top prospects and how their TotalZone numbers look. It’s also important to know these numbers translate a better for infielders than outfielders. Let’s start with the up the middle positions first.
What a topic. We’ll make sure and have a new thread on this again tomorrow. There’s a lot of secondary information that can be derived from this trade . . . and I mean a lot.
FWIW, I’m not nearly as negative about this trade as most.}
Quick hits, sorry for being redundant, I just don’t want anyone to think I totally am vehemently saying this is the worst trade ever:
Brett Wallace is not a sure thing. But he is at least a top 50 prospect and that has a lot of value. My feeling is, defensive limitations at 3B aside, he would have been at least an average player for the Cardinals, which means he would have been worth 2 WAR a year, worth around 8-9 million bucks on the free agent market. For a cost-controlled player, that is valuable. Maybe he doesn’t meet that reasonable expectation, stranger things have happened.
With that in mind, Wallace’s value may never have been higher than it was before the trade was made. But to give up Wallace and Mortensen and Peterson for 2-months of Matt Holliday is a very steep price to pay.
Holliday had better mean playoffs. But that is no slam dunk. If all goes to plan, Holliday means an extra couple of wins. That might mean the difference between staving off the Cubs and Brewers, it may not. Even if STL makes the playoffs, Philly and LA will be tough to beat.
IF this means they resign Holliday, groovy, as long as it’s not too cost-prohibitive. There again is that word if.
IF Holliday is simply offered arbitration and declines, the Cardinals get two high draft picks, including a first rounder. That’s good, but for every Colby or Wallace, there has been Ottavinos and Kozmas. Nothing against those two, but they are C prospects and not really valuable commodities. That actually is par for the course, which is why a top 100 prospect is worth more than draft pick compensation. It’s the whole proverbial bird in the hand…
If they don’t bring back Holliday/biff the draft next year, then this will hurt, flag or no flag. I’m sorry, but I remember fans on ledges in 2007 when they missed the playoffs, a year after they own the World Series. You can build to win now and in the future, you don’t have to choose.
While I don’t think Mortensen or Peterson will be anything really super special, I’m bummed about Morty leaving. He had that sinker and some upside. Cost-controlled back-end starters have their value, even if that’s all you felt his upside was. Peterson never really did much for me, even though he was hitting pretty well this season. I do have this odd sensation he’ll surprise us all.
The farm system will probably be in the bottom 20′s after enjoying being a top ten system for a while. If they don’t sign Shelby Miller, the farm system will look really bad. Which, sort of selfishly thinking, makes this site less fun for all of us until draft day. They had better sign Shelby Miller, but even if they do, he’s still a big risk. I’ve heard 4th OF too often thrown around when discussing DJ Tools. I’ve heard some good comparisons too. (Desmond Jennings) Descalso is nice. Todd is nice. Lynn is OK. Getting Garcia healthy again is good. But no “impact” player in the system right now, really, other than Wagner Mateo, who is like a decade away and a huge risk as it is.
Not a real fan of Mo right now at all, but I admire his guts. I just hope this wasn’t some sort of peace offering for trading the pitching coaches’ son. Not sayin’, just sayin’. Eh, probably not. Just musing.
Speaking of which, I thought now would be a good time for addressing some questions that you may have thought and didn’t want to ask After pulling a Brett Favre on blogging, I’ve joined FanGraphs because it’s paid gig. Nothing huge, but for blogging, it’s nice. I’m a self-employed contractor and have been looking for a job with a company for a while, about since my wife found out she was pregnant. I would like to write for a living (who wouldn’t?) but few people get that privilege. So when I’m asked to do get paid for something I like doing, and for a blog with good exposure and that pays, well, why not?
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