Posts Tagged “shelby miller”

Take a look at the table below:

Which of those players are you worried about? The player with the lowest strikeout rate — Player C? The player with the worst K:BB rate — Player B?

If you’re the average fan as of late, you’re worried about Player A, Shelby Miller. The player who has a better strikeout and walk rate than Trevor Rosenthal, Player B, at a higher level of competition.  The player with a better strikeout rate than Carlos Martinez, Player C.

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I was going to write about another player for today, but with Shelby Miller the hot topic today thanks to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  The quote and my analysis are after the jump.

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(azruavatar note: This post was written on 6/1 and … then the draft happened. It’s my fault, not Jeff’s, that it didn’t run pre-draft and now I’m working to unbacklog some posts. Any stats in this post are prior to his most recent start on June 5th. I hope to complete — and update — draft recaps this weekend. Apologies for the delays.)

Keith Law reported recently that it seems like Shelby Miller seems “bored” in AAA and his fastball has moved down to more of an average pitch in the 90-93 MPH range as opposed to the plus pitch that he had been sporting in the recent past. I’m not going to speculate on that, but instead take a look at his numbers and see what they can tell us.

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In reply to a question about which starting pitching prospect would be called upon to replace Carpenter should his injury prove insurmountable, Joe Strauss provided a curious response and he apparently reiterated a similar sentiment on the radio days later:

First of all, assuming Carp’ is ‘shelved for the year’ has no basis at this time. Neither is assuming that Shelby Miller is close to ready for this level. There are many within the organization who see Joe Kelly as a rising option should further need arise within the rotation. Based on his velocity, his maturity and his makeup, Trevor Rosenthal has won many admirers within the organization, including the major-league clubhouse. Folks need to re-think some of their assumptions.

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The Cardinals got some good news over the weekend when their projected Opening Day starter, Chris Carpenter, received a moderately positive medical review. Neck pain that was radiating down both arms was diagnosed as a bulging disc rather than a potentially more serious nerve condition or other injury.

The Cardinals clearly had a Plan B in mind and are internally equipped to replace Chris Carpenter with another pitcher, if not one who is as effective on the mound.  Today, Mike Matheny revealed that Lance Lynn gets that label as the back up plan to Chris Carpenter and will be stretched out over the next several Grapefruit League starts. Matheny offered some rationale for the semi-secret backup plans via Derrick Goold and Rick Hummel in the Post-Dispatch:

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The Cardinals placed 11 pitchers in our top 20 prospect list this year. One item that sticks out is that while the Cardinals have had the occasional late round break through (Trevor Rosenthal was drafted in the 21st round), the Cardinals have drafted well with their early round picks.

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This is the consolidated top 20 list rolled out last week.

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A few links for your morning reading:

• Baseball Instinct’s Shelby Miller Scouting Report (from June) – The change in groundball rate when he moved to Springfield was not happenstance but a very concerted effort on the part of the coaching staff and Shelby to keep the ball down in the zone. The four seam fastball up and out of the zone is still a swing and miss offering but groundballs are king in St. Louis.
• Prep Baseball Report & Lance Jeffries (h/t nmstar) – The Cardinals really got into drafting speedy outfielders this year.
• Baseball Instinct’s Zach Cox Scouting Report – I think the differences between Matt Carpenter and Cox on prospect lists is quite interesting and almost entirely a function of draft position.

The St. Louis Cardinals have upgraded their farm system in a major way the past two seasons.  Just last year Baseball America ranked their club 29th out of all 30 major league teams.  They received a relatively small bump up to being ranked 24th earlier this season after the Cardinals drafted Zack Cox, Tyrell Jenkins, and saw the beginning of the rise of a now highly touted prospect by the name of Carlos Martinez.  In 2012, it’s entirely possible that the Cardinals will receive a consensus Top 10 ranking.

Below is an updated depth chart for the top position player in the Cardinals system for each respective position.  Due to length, I’ve broken it down into two parts, the second of which will be posted tomorrow.  For each player, a breakdown of their skills is included in addition to other information and statistics that I found interesting in their stance with the big club and their current league.

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Shelby Miller made the list, ranking 50th overall. Miller was the lone Cardinal representation. In other news, the Cardinal team color will remain red.

Brett Wallace ranked 27th.

In other news, Scott Bittle is probably toast. Take it away, Strauss -

Bittle’s issues are believed significant. His shoulder issue is most obvious toward the anterior (front) part of his shoulder. If surgery is required, it likely would be similar to the capsule-tightening procedure former Cardinals lefthander Mark Mulder required in 2006. Mulder made one abbreviated start with the club in two seasons after the surgery and last week at least postponed a comeback attempt.

Yep, he’s fried.