To use a quick tautology: Apparent problems are obvious.  Do the Cardinals have a less apparent problem that they should be dealing with.

I delve into Joe Strauss’s Post-Dispatch chats with great apprehension and a full bottle of TUMS at my side. One response this week particularly caught my eye.

Joe Strauss: Dickson is starting Thursday. Greene will receive significangt playing time. Freese endures from arthritic ankles so, yes, running is rarely free of discomfort. [...]

Emphasis mine. The Cardinals are employing a third baseman who, in his third year, still has yet to reach 600 major league plate appearances. There are plenty of reasons for this including some freak accidents but, as Struass notes, there are lingering effects to these injuries. David Freese is hitting well, let’s not be unclear about that. He’s posting a .343 wOBA which is significantly better than league average. His defense looks above average to the eyeball and the defensive metrics largely peg him around average.

He can’t run without pain though? At 28, Freese is no spring chicken in baseball terms and he’s entering his arbitration years where his price goes out and expected production needs to increase. The wrap on players like Skip Schumaker isn’t that their bad players, it’s that playing $2-4M dollars for a 1-2WAR player is questionable when there’s a player in the minors that has potential. In Schumaker’s case, you had Daniel Descalso, who provided a less clear line of advocacy than Matt Carpenter does with David Freese.

One of the arguments against Matt Carpenter is that he isn’t expected to hit for power.  He saw the traditional left-hander in Texas League bump that added 50pts of ISO to his line from A-ball.  Earlier in the year, coaches worked with Carpenter to add a little more loft to his swing. He’s nearly maintained his ISO since moving to Memphis. Even with some HR friendly parks out west, that wasn’t something that Colby Rasmus or Daniel Descalso did – other recent lefthanders who experienced the Springfield bump.

Perhaps the more apt rebuttal to this line of thinking is Matt Carpenter in the big leagues would be replacing a player who also hasn’t hit for power. David Freese has an ISO that hovers around his career average of .121; this year’s ISO would place him 105th in the majors among qualified hitters.

The advantage that Matt Carpenter has, and has long exhibited, is his exceptional plate discipline.  Power is an easy number to inflate with park effects and varying park dimensions. Plate discipline and walk rate, while not immune (different batter’s eyes, environmental effects dampening breaking pitches, etc), is a more stable skillset.  Carpenter has a minor league career OBP over .400. He has a mere 4 more strikeouts than walks (207 to 203). In 2011, he’s taken that to a new level with 82 walks against 66 strikeouts and a .420 OBP.

One of the recent arguments that John Mozeliak had when trading Colby Rasmus was concern that his value would erode further for various reasons. Given David Freese’s age, medical history and declining number of cost controlled years, shouldn’t we have the same questions about Freese? Has he reached the peak of his value?

Tyler Greene will get playing time in September because shortstop has been a disaster position all year long for the club. It’s obvious. The Cardinals face a lot of upcoming budget constraints and key, iconic players who will need to have their contracts negotiated in the near term. The loss of Colby Rasmus, even if you think the team is better for that trade, was a tough one to take on the balance sheet. The Cardinals have a chance to establish a young cheap player at 3rd base once again. No, he doesn’t hit for power but I’ll bet he isn’t in pain when he runs either.

The Cardinals will have some decisions to make as the year progresses and rosters expand in September. One such decision is whether to free Tyler Greene or not.

It’s impossible to talk about Greene without acknowledging that he’s now a 28 year old shortstop.  He’s had chances to shine in the majors appearing in games in 2009, 2010 and again in 2011 for a combined major league line of .213/.303/.306 over 357 PAs.  That thoroughly underwhelming line was combined with erratic defense that featured plus range but some unfortunate errors on routine plays.

For whatever reason — nerves, level of competition, etc – Greene looks like a vastly different player in the confines of Memphis and AAA. For three consecutive years he’s posted offensive statistics that are better than league average and his 1143 career PAs in AAA provide a line of .292/.370/.479 for a .849 OPS.  It’s easy to brush aside numbers like that from an aged outfielder or a defensively challenged first base type. This, however, is a shortstop.  This shortstop is currently hitting .337/.419/.611 with an improved walk rate and the best power output of his professional career.

I won’t make the case that Tyler Greene would set the world on fire.  I’ll be the first to admit that I have prospect fatigue from the 2005 first round draft pick.  I won’t even contend that he’ll be any good at shortstop in the majors.  At this point, 9 games back of the Brewers, I don’t think that either of those things necessarily matter.  If the possibility exists that Tyler Greene is a late bloomer or someone that needs to be in the lineup daily to see success, the Cardinals have every reason to pursue a more conclusive answer to that possibility.

Here’s three reasons why it won’t happen:

1) Rafael Furcal – The Cardinals traded Alex Castellanos for Furcal who has shown the capacity to adeptly field at short though still something of an anemic bat. The team traded for him to upgrade this season’s squad but, with an eye toward the future, there’s still some uncertainty for the 2012 shortstop position and Furcal’s potential to fulfill that.  The club may be more intent on seeing what veteran Furcal has left in the tank than what Tyler Greene’s potential at age 28 may be.

2) The Rest of the Vets – One long running theme of the season has been a gaggle of middle infielders that were largely unable to differentiate themselves from one another. Playing Tyler Greene consistently at shortstop requires not only benching Furcal but reducing the playing time of guys like Ryan Theriot, Skip Schumaker, Daniel Descalso and Nick Punto.  The ripple effect of Greene leads to benching a bunch of guys who have “put in their time” this year.

3) Utility Players – The coaching staff and front office seems more apt to view some of the prospects in the system as utility players than potential everyday players. They (and I’m not sure who exactly is making those calls) aren’t necessarily wrong. It’s not as if they’re confining a blue chip prospect to the merry-go-round of infield positions but rather guys like Descalso and, perhaps, Tyler Greene. The downside of this view for a player like Greene may be the lack of a consistent feel for his game. His defensive requirements and expectations changing on a regular basis rolling over into his offense.  It’s not the wrong approach to take with prospects, but it might — just might — be the wrong approach to take with this prospect.  That doesn’t mean he still won’t be utilized as a utility player.

When it’s all said and done, this September will ultimately be another insight into the club’s vision for the future. If they want a known, veteran squad moving forward, you expect more ABs to go to guys like Rafael Furcal.  If you want to see what else your farm system can produce, then those ABs should be tabbed for one of the few impressive players in AAA right now.

The club has no contractual obligations to players like Ryan Theriot or Skip Schumaker moving forward. There is little need to keep them happy campers. If the team is going to evaluate it’s 2012 assets, Tyler Greene plays in September. If they want to dance with the ones that brought them (9 games out of first), expect more of the same.

To cut to the chase (and you should absolutely read the whole article), McKinney comes to the mathematical conclusion that 70% of BA’s top 100 prospects bust.  The carnage is even greater for pitching prospects who busted closer to 80% of the time.  The top prospects obviously were more often successful than their lower ranked counterparts, but the most interesting part of the graph was that the results began to be practically linear towards the 60-100 prospects.

Since one would expect that the ranking of numbers 60-100 is done with a lot of guesswork (and educated guesswork – I’m not trying to rip the prospect list makers, they have a difficult job even with all the inside information they receive), prospects farther down the list would be subject to this theory as well.

So, how does this apply to the Cardinals you ask.  Well, based on that research, you can say that roughly 70% of the Cardinals prospects are going to end up as busts.  And Scott applied the bust label to 1.5 WAR per season on average during their cost controlled years.  Obviously, I’m painting his excellent research with a very broad brush.  Check out his post for the full methodology.  Colby Rasmus would be one of the Cardinals prospects who would count squarely in the success pile for this experiment.

This resonated with me pretty strongly as some of the Cardinals prospects that were at one time or another highly thought of (thinking about Tyler Greene, Bryan Anderson and Daniel Descalso specifically – even though I still think of them highly personally) struggle to get traction in the majors.  And whatever that reason might be (that is fodder for 7 or 8 other posts) they have not.  And I think that’s something important to think about as we will get 7 or 8 glowing reports of each and every prospect in the Cardinals farm system over the next month and a half.  A lot of these guys will not be successful major leaguers, but I’ll be damned if it is not fun trying to find out who is and who is not.

It was definitely a banner year for the Redbirds, who won the PCL Championship.

• Allen Craig is my favorite monster, as is yours, but if there is a red flag with him other than the fact that the Cardinals do not believe he can play third base, it’s his BB/K ratio.
• I must have been in a cave, but I had no idea David Freese had the type of season he had, even if it was an abbreviated one.  He’s a year older than Craig, and the Cards do believe he can play third base, which is why there’s talk of Freese starting at third base next year and we saw Craig not even receiving a September call up. I haven’t seen both players play at much length, but my judgment is Craig is the superior hitter, albeit not by a lot. If Freese can play third and be at least average while putting together a .320 OBP and .435 SLG, that’s more valuable than a left fielder who would give you a little better production at the plate.
• Tyler Greene quietly had himself one fine season. Among other things, look at that stolen base/caught stealing numbers. The man has some speed and knows how to pick his spots. With the Boogstache firmly holding on  the SS job, it’s nice to know Greene is there as a fallback option and backup. He may fill up a boxscore with steals, doubles, strikeouts and errors; it’s never a dull moment with Greene.
• As for disappointments, look no further than Bryan Anderson and Jon Jay. Jay pulled himself up after a nose-dive of a second half, but it’s hard to see him becoming better than a fourth outfielder at this point. The Cardinal brass bragged about Jay and his potential future batting titles, so that’s not quite the future they had pegged for the quirky outfielder. Anderson was once a Top 100 prospect and has since tanked it hard. Before hitting the DL he was allowing about a stolen base per game and his offense bit the dust. He’s currently hitting for a .630 OPS in 27 at-bats in the Arizona Fall League, for what it’s worth.

Sean “Chone” Smith has applied his TotalZone defensive metric on minor league data for the past few years, although it didn’t become available until last year at MinorLeagueSplits.com. Recently updated data has become available for games up to July 31st. While every defensive metric have their own quirks (especially metrics that depend on scorekeepers coding of batted balls as “line drives” or “fly balls”), the quirks can only be heightened when not dealing with a full season.

I’d trust the scouting reports first, then go with two or better yet three seasons worth of data before making any hard conclusions on a minor leaguer’s glovework. Or better yet, go watch them yourself for a few games.

But for what it’s worth, let’s check out some of the Cardinals’ top prospects and how their TotalZone numbers look. It’s also important to know these numbers translate a better for infielders than outfielders. Let’s start with the up the middle positions first.

Pete Kozma, SS. +3 runs saved above average at SFG, +5 per 150 games. -4 at Palm Beach. Last year Pete was a +11/19 per 150. So his slumping has carried over into his defense, perhaps. He has piled up the errors with 20 in Springfield and 29 total on the season. Tough year for Pete all around, things are not looking great for the former 1st rounder.

Tyler Greene, SS. +4. Knows how to fill up a boxscore with steals, doubles, strikeouts and errors. Slick but inconsistent play, could be our starting SS next year. Glad to see he’s making himself into a decent piece rather than a 1st round bust.

Niko Vasquez, SS. -5, -12 per 150. Ugh. The fall is nearly complete. Niko was a shiny +18 per 150 last year in Johnson City with an even shinier .878 OPS. We thought we had a 3rd round steal. Now he looks like a 3rd round dud.

Donovan Solano, “SS”. I know someone will ask about Donovan because it’s easy to get sucked into how young he has been for his level and he’s hit for a decent albeit empty average. He feels older to me than 21 because he’s been in the system for a long time. -15 runs between Memphis and Springfield. Minus 15. Find someone else to get excited about.

Shane Robinson, CF. Hit Shane. Just hit. +8, +16 per 150.

Jim Rapoport, CF. Did you know he has more walks than strikeouts? 59-56. He’s recently taken on quite an impressively patient approach at the plate. And he’s a plus defender. +5, +8 per 150. Matt Baker told me over Twitter that some scouts compare his glove to Jim Edmonds. No, seriously.

Adron Chambers, CF. Former draft and follow is putting together a nice season at the plate (.292/.376/.414), +4 in CF for Palm Beach.

Daniel Descalso, 2B. +2, +4/150. Not hitting anymore since being called up to Memphis. Our excitement level peaked on this guy about a month ago. I’m still hopeful he makes the adjustment. Scouts think he could be an average 2B in the majors, if not a little above average. Here is what I really don’t understand. Why is Jarrett Hoffpauir hoarding up all the PT at 2B? Hoff is having a nice rebound year at the plate with his .887 OPS. But he’s 26 years old and looks more like a utility player than a regular. Hoff is a -4/-10 and was a -10 last year as well. He’s clearly the inferior prospect, if you can call him a prospect at his age, and yet Descalso gets regulated to the team’s utility infielder upon being promoted? Send him back down to Springfield and let him play 2B there.

Aaron Luna, 2B. Everyone’s favorite new sleeper is a -1 at 2B, not too bad. I was told by one official that he “has a ways to go defensively at 2B”.

Brett Wallace, 3B. Just be honest, you scrolled to find B-Dub first. +2 between Memphis, Springfield and *sigh* Sacramento. That’s right, he hasn’t been a total butcher at 3B. In fact, he’s been a little above average.  Maybe he could have stuck…/stirring pot.

Hobbled DJ Tools, LF +2, +5 per 150 playing with a bum knee. Last year at two levels was elite: +15.

Tyler Henley, RF +3, +6 per 150. Good season all around. Can’t wait to see what he does in Memphis next year.

Jon Jay, OF +3 in CF, +6 in LF. After struggling much of the season, in the last 28 days he’s hitting .296/.348/.444.

Shane Peterson, RF +5 between SFG and PB. Since the trade, Peterson is hitting .340/.390/.547 for Double-A Midland.

(Hitting stats current through Saturday)

First of all, congrats on winning the Harry Mitauer Good Guy Award at the Baseball Writers Dinner. That’s one award I’d say the writers got right.

Thanks Erik. As I mentioned the night I received it, with so many good people working around the stadium, I would have been flattered merely to have my name come up in the discussion, let alone being named the recipient. But it’s easy to be in a good mood when doing something I love on a daily basis.

Baseball America ranked the Cardinals’ system the 8th best in baseball. What is your take the ranking?

We try not to get too wrapped up in what others say about our system, since there are so many variables that can affect a ranking. Even when our rankings were not as high, we were able to have players like Albert and Yadi come through the system, and turned other of our younger prospects into Major League talent through trades. But I think the feeling is universal within our organization that we have much more depth and significantly more players that can be realistically projected to have a Major League future than we had in prior years. I think the rankings are probably a reflection of that. But I don’t want to sound disingenuous by saying that I agree with the rankings when they rate us highly and disagreed when we were ranked lower!

The organization has not been shy about promoting players as of late. What are some of the factors that go into determining whether or not a prospect is ready to be moved up to a different level?

A lot of different things go into making that determination. Obviously, success at a lower level is often a big part of it, since if a player is struggling at a lower level, moving him up likely would just make it even tougher for him. If it’s a player that we consider one of our better prospects, then making sure that there’s an opening where he’ll get ample playing time is another priority, especially if we’ve already got a prospect playing the same position at that level. Almost every time we make a decision about moving a player up (or down), it will involve not only Jeff Luhnow and me, but also the managers for the teams involved as well as our hitting/pitching coordinators. Getting the perspective of our guys in the field is critical, since there’s often something that they’ve picked up on that could affect that player’s chances of success at the next level that isn’t necessarily reflected in the stats or in our game reports.

How long does it take to go about making roster assignments for the minor league teams to start the season?

It’s a lengthy process, and one that involves a lot of people. All of us have our “projected” rosters, and many of us were already projecting 2009 rosters while the 2008 season was going on, but there are so many variables that the actual rosters can often wind up bearing little resemblance to the projected rosters. Ideally, it’s because a player shows up being greatly improved over the prior year – however, other times it may be due to injuries or under performance. But we’ll have two days of meetings with our staff prior to the start of camp to discuss players and rosters, and then we’ll have numerous meetings throughout spring training, making decisions about who makes which club, who remains at Extended Spring Training, and who ultimately gets sent home. Oftentimes, we’re in a holding pattern with our rosters depending on what happens at the Major League level, so occasionally there are times where we have to react quickly to an unexpected player dropping down to our AAA roster, but there are many hours spent making the decisions that go into forming our opening day rosters.

We’ve seen a lot of positional movement with players lately, whether it be a no-hit catcher moving to the bullpen, or a certain scrappy outfielder moving to a spot of real need. Is this a paradigm the Cardinals are going to continue utilizing, heavily moving forward whenever there is a surplus at one position or a deficiency at another?

I think it often makes sense for a player to at least explore anything they can do to give themselves as much versatility as possible, especially since it’s often impossible to project where an opening may suddenly occur at the major league level. If a player has at least shown the ability to adequately handle multiple positions, it allows him to be considered as a candidate for a variety of roles, rather than being locked in exclusively at one spot. Additionally, if a player was drafted at an “offensive” position such as LF or first base, if it turns out that he has the ability to play a more challenging defensive position, that can turn him into a much more valuable commodity. One example of that is Tony Cruz, who is a solid defensive third baseman, but has impressed with his ability behind the plate. It’s much tougher to find catchers with Tony’s offensive capabilities than it is to find similar hitting third baseman, so by having Tony working on his catching he is able to make himself much more valuable, as well as giving him multiple ways to move through the system.

What do the Cardinals hope to improve on in terms of managing the minors in 2009 compared to 2008?

It’s hard to get into too many specifics, but our goal is to always have somebody ready within our farm system when there’s a hole or a need at the Major League level. There’s nothing wrong with signing players from outside the organization at times, but we always want that to be something that is done by choice, and not due to a lack of internal options. Ultimately the goal of the farm system is pretty simple – to continue to increase the quantity and quality of players making their way to St. Louis.

I’m sure you’re going get asked this a few bazillion times this spring, but how is Brett Wallace looking at the hot corner?

Brett may be unlikely to ever look like a prototypical third baseman, but the bottom line is that he makes the plays, has good hands, and despite an unusual throwing motion his arm is ML average at worst. Pop Warner, who was his manager both at Springfield and in the Arizona Fall League, was pleased with the progress that Brett made during his time in Arizona and at this point there’s no reason to believe that Brett couldn’t remain as a third baseman in the future.

Daryl Jones and Jess Todd won the organization’s pitcher and player of the year award, taking two different paths. Jones languished Low A before coming on like a house of fire, while Todd just rocketed through the system in his first full season. Please give me your thoughts on those two, and do you have a prediction as to who could be this year’s Daryl Jones (breakout hitter) or Jess Todd (fast-moving pitcher)?

Daryl really wasn’t a big surprise to me, as he’s always been a very coachable, intelligent kid, who really just needed to continue to get experience playing baseball. He’s always had the tools, but was a bit raw, having played multiple sports in high school. It’s always important to be patient with young players whenever possible, as evidenced by guys like Joe Mather and Chris Duncan, who both had their share of struggles in A-ball.

Jess was much more polished coming into pro ball, having had three years of college experience, but I don’t think anyone expected him to wind up in AAA by year’s end. He’s a good example of what can happen when a pitcher has excellent command of his fastball and breaking pitch, and pitches with poise. While he moved rapidly through the system, he proved at each stop that he had mastered the level, and once a player has accomplished that, we’re not reluctant to give him new challenges.

As far as names for this year, guys like Tommy Pham, Jon Edwards and Beau Riportella have shown flashes of their ability in the past and certainly have ample tools to make big jumps once everything clicks for them. Again, patience is key for those type of guys – even though they’ve been a part of the organization for several years, Pham and Edwards will play all year at age 21, while Riportella doesn’t turn 21 until August.

For candidates for fast-moving pitchers, guys like Lance Lynn, Adam Reifer and Sam Freeman come to mind, but there’s quite a few potential candidates that could fall into that category. We don’t set out with the intention for guys to make huge jumps within one season, but if warranted, we wouldn’t shy away from it either.

Letting Luis Perdomo go unprotected from the Rule 5 draft left a few of us fans scratching our heads. Can you help us understand the rationale behind that decision?

John Mozeliak uses a lot of different sources in making the final determination about who to place on the 40-man roster, including internal scouting reports from our own staff members, as well as weighing areas of organizational depth and weakness. We place more weight on the likelihood of a Rule 5 eligible player actually sticking with the drafting club than we do on the chances of selection alone. While it’s certainly understandable how Perdomo would be attractive to another organization, we faced the same questions a few years back when Tyler Johnson was selected by Oakland from us in the Rule 5 draft after pitching the entire year at AA. We felt that Perdomo was more like Juan Mateo, who we selected a few years back in the Rule 5, in terms of being a future major leaguer, but not quite being ready at this stage of his career.

With right handed relief being one of our biggest areas of organizational depth, placing Perdomo on the 40-man roster would have meant starting the clock on his options this spring. With the RH relievers we have ahead of him in the organization, it likely would be a couple years before he’d be in the majors with us, and saving an option year could turn out to be necessary down the road.

Jon Jay fascinates me. He’s done nothing but hit, and according some of the new  metrics available, he’s also an excellent fielder. What do you feel his upside is?

Jon has somewhat quietly moved through the organization, in part because much of the focus has (deservedly) been on Colby Rasmus, but he’s a very polished hitter, who has always hit for average and has a little more pop than people give him credit for. Defensively, he’s got the range and hands to play CF if needed, however if there’s no opening in CF, he could adequately handle a corner spot. As far as upside, there’s nothing that I’ve seen that indicates he couldn’t be a solid major league outfielder in the future.

Tyler Greene had an excellent showing the AFL. Do you believe has turned the corner?

I think so – the one thing I’ve noticed about Tyler is that he now plays with much more confidence than he did earlier in his career, and that he realizes that he’s capable of competing and succeeding against quality competition. He’s not a finished product yet, but he’s made big strides in the last year and offers an exciting blend of power, speed and defense.

I know it’s extremely early in his career, but how excited should we be about Roberto de la Cruz?

I think he’s a very exciting prospect. I haven’t seen much of him yet personally, but our guys who got to spend a lot of time with him during Instructional League came away very impressed. He’s our highest profile July 2 signee, and by all accounts, he seems to be worthy of that billing.

We try to assume that no news is good news with injuries, but can we get an update on Jaime Garcia’s rehab?

Saw Jaime playing catch the other day, and he’s right on schedule with his rehab. It’ll be awhile before he’s throwing off the mound, but fortunately, he’s had no setbacks at this stage.

What can you tell us about minor league free agents Joe Thurston and Ian Ostlund?

We’re really happy to have both of those guys in the organization, and despite signing as “minor league” free agents, they have the potential to make contributions for our big league club. Thurston is a guy that we were familiar with, and it seems that he’s had the misfortune the last few years of being blocked by MVP caliber 2nd basemen (Utley and Pedroia). He’s performed very well at AAA, and played winter ball in Puerto Rico. Our interest started heating up based on reports from Eduardo Perez and Jose Oquendo, and fortunately I have a good relationship with Joe’s agent and we were able to work out a deal to make him a Cardinal, as there was heavy interest from multiple clubs. Joe’s always been a guy that managers love to have on their clubs, as he plays several positions very well defensively, handles the bat well and plays hard all the time.

Ostlund was a guy that we targeted, literally from Day One. Prior to the first date of minor league free agency, we always put together a target list of players that interest us, and Ian was one of about 3-4 guys that was at the top of our list. We contacted his agent as soon as the bell rang, and Ian was excited about the opportunity for him here with the Cardinals, and we actually were able to wrap up the deal the very first day. The thing that stood out to us about Ian is that he throws strikes and comes after the hitters. While he has success against lefties, he has ample weapons that enable him to get righties out as well, and he’s capable of pitching an inning+ at a time, rather than solely being a LOOGY. He’s got outstanding makeup and we’re excited to have him.

George Kissell, a Cardinal lifer and a mentor to just so many, passed on this last October. Do you have a memory or two of Mr. Kissell that you would like to share with us?

I could go on for hours about the effect that George had on all of us with the Cardinals. For me personally, the first few years I was in player development I would just sit and listen to him talk with our coaches, and try to soak up as much as possible. I was always appreciative that he’d take the time to talk with a young kid like me, as I was beginning to learn how much I didn’t know about the game. The thing to me that stood about George was how he was always learning, and despite probably being as much of an “expert” as anyone could be when it comes to baseball, he was always looking for ways to improve his teaching methods. While he knew there were certain “iron-clad fundamentals”, he was also flexible enough to evolve as the game changed.

The hitters

Making his triumphal return to the Copper State, the former Sun Devil seemed to be perfectly comfortable in his old surroundings of the painted desert. The Walrus hit for a .422 wOBA over 104 plate appearances. He started off a little slow, but finished strong and helped cap his status as the best pure hitter in the system. If there was a downside to his season, it was that he struck out in 25.7% of his plate appearances, but for someone just a few months removed from college, I gotta like the results. Grade: A and voted most likely to succeed.

Tyler Greene needed to have a good showing, and a good showing he had. The GM took notice, stating at one point that Greene could possibly make the big league roster with a good spring training. In order to be protected from the Rule 5 draft, he was added to the 40 man roster. Greene has been an enigma wrapped in tools, and here’s hoping the 25 year old former 1st rounder is a late bloomer. On the surface it looks like he may have turned the corner, posting a .400 wOBA against the advanced competition, but I can’t say his peripherals changed dramatically. Over a 100 plate appearances, his walk rate was 8% and he struck out in 29% plate appearances, about right around his norm. If he could just get some sort of semblance of pitch recognition skills…Right now his upside looks a little like Bill Hall, only I think he will stick as a middle infielder. Grade: B. Voted best athlete and biggest flirt.

Steve Hill is the lord of the taxi squad. Or you can simply call him T-Bone. Splitting time between catching and DHing, Hill hit for a .436 wOBA over only 55 plate appearances. It’s a small sample, but a .305 isolated power is impressive, even playing in thin air. If he is halfway serviceable at catcher then he’s a pretty nice prospect. I think he’ll end up splitting catching duties with Arnoldi Cruz next year for Springfield. He’s definitely a favorite sleeper of mine, if he can still be classified as a sleeper. Grade: A. Voted most likely to beat the living snot out of you.

Shane Robinson got everyone’s attention when he hit around .400 for his first couple of months in AA, but once he moved up to Memphis he struggled at the plate and with injuries and seemed to fall off the grid. In 129 plate appearances as the Saguaros lead off hitter, Robinson posted a .351 wOBA. He led the team in runs scored (27) and stolen bases (8). His 12.9% walk rate is hopefully a sign of progress and if he can keep it up in AAA next year it will certainly boost his stock as a potential lead off hitter. While he had a decent AFL, he didn’t really do anything to separate himself from Rasmus, Mather, Jones and Jay in the depth chart, and still looks like a 4th OF to me. If he could only play 2B…Grade: C. Voted most scrappy. (Natch)

The pitchers

Adam Ottavino‘s prospect status took a few body blows this past season in AA, and I was hoping he’d take a whiff of the smelling salt and come out swinging in the AFL. Instead, he hit the mat again, with a .344 average against and a 6.17 ERA. His fielding independent numbers aren’t too bad though, he struck out 25 batters in 23.1 innings and had a 4.28 FIP. Grade: C+. Voted friendliest classmate.

After sitting on the sidelines most of the season with a strained left shoulder, Tyler Norrick was sent to the AFL to make up for lost time. Maybe a more tropical setting would have been more appropriate, as Norrick was tagged to the tune of a 7.88 ERA in 16 innings pitched. Like Ottavino, there was a pretty big discrepancy with his ERA and his FIP-4.83. He struck out 20 batters but struggled to keep the ball in the yard, yielding 5 homers. Grade: C-. Voted most likely to end up on the back of a milk carton.

Brad Furnish and his fly-balling ways surprised me by managing to not allow a homer over 15.2 innings in Arizona. The same malady that Ott and Norrick suffered plagued Furnish as well, his ERA was 7.47 but his FIP of 4.35 is respectable. Opponents hit .323 against him. Meh. Grade: C-. Voted Coolest Hair.

From the Indy leagues to the AFL, it’s been quite a ride for the soft-tossing Justin Fiske. Fiske looked like the most likely of the three lefties to get a look in spring training as a potential LOOGY. Over 11 innings he struck out 8, walked 5 and allowed 6 earned runs. FIP- 4.56. Meh again. C-. Voted most likely to join a German death metal band.

THREE UP

Brett Wallace-I really hope he stays at the QC for at least another couple of weeks, as the Bandits are coming to my hometown the beginning of August. He might not, as he’s needed little adjustment to pro ball so far: in 50 at bats he’s hitting .360/.492/600. He has more walks than strikeouts (9-8) and isn’t afraid to take one for the team, with 4 HBP. I saw him on local TV here the other night and he laced a liner for a single right after he looked bad swinging over a breaking ball. In the next half of the inning he made a pretty nifty play at third where he had to range a little to his left and make a strong throw. It was “fall down” range, but some range. Gotta look at the positives. Heck, with Glaus hitting the way he has maybe they should talk extension with him while he’s liking St. Louis, and just move Wallace to LF now.

Pete Kozma-He has been average at the plate this season, but considering he is in his first full professional season just a year removed from high school, it’s somewhat understandable. But for those who have been skeptical of the merits of his 1st round selection to begin with, Pete has done little to win them over. However, in the past 10 games at least, he’s on a pretty nice roll. He’s hitting .310 average with a .452 slugging percentage in 42 at bats. On the negative, he’s drawn only one walk during that span and only 3 the entire month of July. Drawing walks has actually been on of Pete’s strong suits up to this point (walking in 10% of his plate appearances), but it’s nice seeing him finally get some extra base hits nonetheless.

Tyler Greene-I had a gut feeling Greene would finish strong in the 2nd half, and so far he’s proving me right. Hopefully this last month is a sign he’s finally coming to his own. Green is slugging .739 in his last 10 games, and since the all star break is hitting .311/.339/.544 with 6 homers and 4 steals.

THREE DOWN

Jaime Garcia-He’s down a little, but his first big league start leads me to believe he’s rebounding some. His call up was rather surprising considering his two starts in July he lasted only 5 innings in one game and 4.1 in his last. He allowed 8 earned runs on 10 hits and 6 walks with 5 K’s to raise his AAA ERA to 4.59, a disappointing number considering he had been obliterating AA.  After a shaky first inning in his first MLB start, Jaime settled down and looked pretty good, at least until he allowed a 2 run homer against Padres’ pitcher Cha Seung Baek. I don’t think Garcia will ever forget his name, as Baek broke into the slowest homerun trot I think any human being has ever seen. Garcia missed plenty of bats with is cutter/curve combo and was able to pound the lower half of the plate with his sinker.  Chris O’Leary recently broke down Garcia’s mechanics and doesn’t believe he’ll be the long-term solution for the Cardinals, FWIW. In a nutshell,  O’Leary doesn’t believe the elbow issues are a fluke and he’s bound to shred his shoulder due his mechanics.

Chris Perez-Not a real great MLB debut, although I still have no idea what Kelvin Jimenez offers that Perez doesn’t. His 1.7 K/BB ratio was less than exciting, part of which can be attributed to his slider going AWOL. He’s hoping to rediscover the pitch back in AAA.

Fransisco Samuel-Like Perez, Samuel touches 97 and has a devastating slider, or so says the Cardinal brass, but after the break Samuel’s been all over the place. He’s walked 18 in 16.1 innings since the All Star break and has blown 3 saves. Great stuff, but very questionable command.